Bad News Thread

[EvilGoalie 21]

off ramp

Globally, this virus has been successful enough that it largely gets to dictate the timing and pitch of the off ramp. We get to choose how reactive to be in determining what the contours of that will look like. This virus is going to burn itself into a low level steady state with our global populations one way or another. Our choices concern how we want to manage spatio-temporal aspects of the flare ups. Outside of vaccination we are in a fundamentally reactive position.

ruinous

If there is a silver lining, or blessing, with this virus is that it's complex interaction with our immune systems gave it, historically, an atypical mortality profile. It is not, so far, U shaped in terms of a graph of lethality vs. age. Meaning that, by and large, it did not come for the very young. Why that is still isn't exactly clear. But it did not have to be that way. Not to be a downer, but if 2020 had been a year of little coffins, what ruinous means at this point could be very different. We should remember that, and be thankful, because the next one of these zoonotic breakouts-assuming the chatter about this not being zoonotic is just that-may not work out that way.

 

[Grace T.]

Globally, this virus has been successful enough that it largely gets to dictate the timing and pitch of the off ramp. We get to choose how reactive to be in determining what the contours of that will look like. This virus is going to burn itself into a low level steady state with our global populations one way or another. Our choices concern how we want to manage spatio-temporal aspects of the flare ups. Outside of vaccination we are in a fundamentally reactive position.



If there is a silver lining, or blessing, with this virus is that it's complex interaction with our immune systems gave it, historically, an atypical mortality profile. It is not, so far, U shaped in terms of a graph of lethality vs. age. Meaning that, by and large, it did not come for the very young. Why that is still isn't exactly clear. But it did not have to be that way. Not to be a downer, but if 2020 had been a year of little coffins, what ruinous means at this point could be very different. We should remember that, and be thankful, because the next one of these zoonotic breakouts-assuming the chatter about this not being zoonotic is just that-may not work out that way.

Largely agree but a few caveats:

a. Given the restrictions and imperfections in the vaccine there was always going to be a bump when we exited the restrictions. The only question was til when was this pushed off
b. The consensus seems to be that the probability is that this was not zoonotic…science caused its own Frankenstein monster
c. The virus will likely continue to evolve to avoid the vaccine. The elderly in particular might need an updated Rona vaccine periodically
d. The reason why there isn’t a rhino vaccine is because there isn’t a ton of free govt money in developing it. As vaccination hesitancy shows with the new Rona vaccine, the market may be limited, and the testing required on kids is a years long process.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

a mask on Espola would reduce transmission from humans to cats.

For transmission from cats to humans, you need a mask on the cat.

good luck with that plan….

With a mask on the cat won’t be able to lick itself. And neither will E.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

That's really interesting to know. What's the S protein of a rhinovirus look like? In that case, instead of kicking my ass targeting the Rona, I wish Moderna had poured their energy into a pop to keep my kid from bringing home the sniffles.

That’s funny. The S protein of the rhinovirus looks like a pop.

 

[espola]

Largely agree but a few caveats:

a. Given the restrictions and imperfections in the vaccine there was always going to be a bump when we exited the restrictions. The only question was til when was this pushed off
b. The consensus seems to be that the probability is that this was not zoonotic…science caused its own Frankenstein monster
c. The virus will likely continue to evolve to avoid the vaccine. The elderly in particular might need an updated Rona vaccine periodically
d. The reason why there isn’t a rhino vaccine is because there isn’t a ton of free govt money in developing it. As vaccination hesitancy shows with the new Rona vaccine, the market may be limited, and the testing required on kids is a years long process.

Consensus? I have been tuned out of the news the last few days due to personal issues. Has something come up;?

 

[espola]

Consensus? I have been tuned out of the news the last few days due to personal issues. Has something come up;?

I found this review paper --

The Origins of SARS-CoV-2: A Critical Review

The Origins of SARS-CoV-2: A Critical Review Holmes et al. Since the first reports of a novel SARS-like coronavirus in December 2019 in Wuhan, China, there has been intense interest in understanding how SARS-CoV-2 emerged in the human population. Recent debate has coalesced around two competing...

zenodo.org

This article describes it to laymen such as engineers and lawyers and the like --

Lab Leak or Zoonotic Transfer? Leading Biologists Review COVID-19 Virus Origin Evidence

Amid debate around the origins of SARS-CoV-2, leading global biologists have reviewed the scientific evidence to help clarify the origin of the virus that causes COVID-19 in humans. Pre-print paper highlights links supporting zoonotic origin for the virus Zero biological evidence exists for

scitechdaily.com

The review paper says: “There is no evidence that any early cases had any connection to the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV), in contrast to the clear epidemiological links to animal markets in Wuhan, nor evidence that the WIV possessed or worked on a progenitor of SARS-CoV-2 prior to the pandemic.”

Rather, it argues that “there is substantial body of scientific evidence supporting a zoonotic origin for SARS-CoV-2.”

The 21 eminent scientists from universities and research institutes around the world warn that a focus on a highly improbable lab origin is distracting from the most urgent scientific tasks to “comprehensively investigate the zoonotic origin through collaborative and carefully coordinated studies.”

 

[dad4]

I found this review paper --

The Origins of SARS-CoV-2: A Critical Review

The Origins of SARS-CoV-2: A Critical Review Holmes et al. Since the first reports of a novel SARS-like coronavirus in December 2019 in Wuhan, China, there has been intense interest in understanding how SARS-CoV-2 emerged in the human population. Recent debate has coalesced around two competing...

zenodo.org

This article describes it to laymen such as engineers and lawyers and the like --

Lab Leak or Zoonotic Transfer? Leading Biologists Review COVID-19 Virus Origin Evidence

Amid debate around the origins of SARS-CoV-2, leading global biologists have reviewed the scientific evidence to help clarify the origin of the virus that causes COVID-19 in humans. Pre-print paper highlights links supporting zoonotic origin for the virus Zero biological evidence exists for

scitechdaily.com

The review paper says: “There is no evidence that any early cases had any connection to the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV), in contrast to the clear epidemiological links to animal markets in Wuhan, nor evidence that the WIV possessed or worked on a progenitor of SARS-CoV-2 prior to the pandemic.”

Rather, it argues that “there is substantial body of scientific evidence supporting a zoonotic origin for SARS-CoV-2.”

The 21 eminent scientists from universities and research institutes around the world warn that a focus on a highly improbable lab origin is distracting from the most urgent scientific tasks to “comprehensively investigate the zoonotic origin through collaborative and carefully coordinated studies.”

“no evidence”?

That is not credible. I’ve read scientific evidence for a lab leak. Maybe this particular researcher believes it is insufficient, but you can’t say it does not exist. (Worse, the claim of “no evidence” is a bad sign. Your source is either poorly informed, or choosing to deliberately misrepresent what evidence exists. My guess is #2- He disagrees with the other side, therefore he pretends they do not exist.)

The simplest evidence for a lab leak is the flat refusal of CCP to allow anyone to look at the lab. This also hampers any search for a zoonotic origin. It is the world’s best repository of bat virus samples, and we do not even know what is there. By now, the entire collection and research notes should be digitized, externally verified, and freely available to any qualified researcher working on the problem.

 

[espola]

“no evidence”?

That is not credible. I’ve read scientific evidence for a lab leak. Maybe this particular researcher believes it is insufficient, but you can’t say it does not exist. (Worse, the claim of “no evidence” is a bad sign. Your source is either poorly informed, or choosing to deliberately misrepresent what evidence exists. My guess is #2- He disagrees with the other side, therefore he pretends they do not exist.)

The simplest evidence for a lab leak is the flat refusal of CCP to allow anyone to look at the lab. This also hampers any search for a zoonotic origin. It is the world’s best repository of bat virus samples, and we do not even know what is there. By now, the entire collection and research notes should be digitized, externally verified, and freely available to any qualified researcher working on the problem.

Can you share a link to the credible scientific evidence you have read?

 

[Bruddah IZ]

You two non-scientist crack me up with your origin smokescreen.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

And WTF is Lebron in Space Jam now?

 

[Desert Hound]

"The most recent Kaiser poll helps illustrate that the vaccine hesitant group doesn't really lean Republican. Just 20% of the group called themselves Republican with an additional 19% being independents who leaned Republican. The clear majority (61%) were not Republicans (41% said they were Democrats or Democratic leaning independents and 20% were either pure independents or undesignated)."

 

[espola]

"The most recent Kaiser poll helps illustrate that the vaccine hesitant group doesn't really lean Republican. Just 20% of the group called themselves Republican with an additional 19% being independents who leaned Republican. The clear majority (61%) were not Republicans (41% said they were Democrats or Democratic leaning independents and 20% were either pure independents or undesignated)."

Next paragraph --

"This is very much unlike the vaccine resistant group, of whom 55% are Republican or Republican leaning independents. Just 21% of that group are Democrats or Democratic leaning independents."

Why politicians won't reach the vaccine hesitant | CNN Politics

A look at the data reveals that the vaccine hesitant group, however, are not big Trump lovers. They're actually likely not to be Republican. Instead, many of them are people who are detached from the political process & didn't vote for Biden or Trump

www.cnn.com

 

[espola]

Ha! The multi-aliased, misanthropic troll already dismissed them as a source. How can they possibly give the proper definition?

"Critical race theory is an academic concept that is more than 40 years old. The core idea is that race is a social construct, and that racism is not merely the product of individual bias or prejudice, but also something embedded in legal systems and policies.

The basic tenets of critical race theory, or CRT, emerged out of a framework for legal analysis in the late 1970s and early 1980s created by legal scholars Derrick Bell, Kimberlé Crenshaw, and Richard Delgado, among others."

 

[Grace T.]

Things are great in Australia.....

Australia COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Australia Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

 

[Grace T.]

Cloth face masks are 'comfort blankets' that do little to curb Covid spread, Scientist warns

Dr Colin Axon warned some cloth masks have gaps that are invisible to the naked eye, but are 5000 times the size of viral Covid particles

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[dad4]

Cloth face masks are 'comfort blankets' that do little to curb Covid spread, Scientist warns

Dr Colin Axon warned some cloth masks have gaps that are invisible to the naked eye, but are 5000 times the size of viral Covid particles

www.telegraph.co.uk

What, is it still April 2020 on your planet?

Nice to see that you found a new unqualified person to spout the misinformation this time. This one is a Senior Lecturer in Mechanical Engineering. Not even a professor, and talking well outside his field at that.

 

[espola]

Cloth face masks are 'comfort blankets' that do little to curb Covid spread, Scientist warns

Dr Colin Axon warned some cloth masks have gaps that are invisible to the naked eye, but are 5000 times the size of viral Covid particles

www.telegraph.co.uk

Paywall.

What does it say?

 

[espola]

What, is it still April 2020 on your planet?

Nice to see that you found a new unqualified person to spout the misinformation this time. This one is a Senior Lecturer in Mechanical Engineering. Not even a professor, and talking well outside his field at that.

Here is a more up-to-date analysis from SAGE --

[Withdrawn] [Withdrawn] Face coverings: when to wear one, exemptions and what makes a good one

www.gov.uk

 

[EvilGoalie 21]

What, is it still April 2020 on your planet?

Unhappily, it was always going to be the case that getting 2020 America to implement an effective mask strategy would turn out a bit like the night Bob Altemeyer seeded a bunch of high scoring RWAs into the Global Change Game.

 

[Grace T.]

What, is it still April 2020 on your planet?

Nice to see that you found a new unqualified person to spout the misinformation this time. This one is a Senior Lecturer in Mechanical Engineering. Not even a professor, and talking well outside his field at that.

1. You yourself have conceded cloth masks aren’t as good as the other masks which is basically what he’s saying
2. If you have it your way and masks were instrumental in keeping Asia under control they don’t seem to be doing as good of a job anymore
3. He makes the point that once the particle leaves the body it’s no longer a medical point but a physics problem. To some extent he is correct in this. The medical people who have been advising on this can help define the particle and how it presents once it’s left the body but not how the physics affect it or the masks afterwards
4. He has been retained by industry and the uk government to consult on this so he is presumably a qualified expert. The medical professionals advising on other than the structure of particles leaving the body are not experts on this.

 

[espola]

1. You yourself have conceded cloth masks aren’t as good as the other masks which is basically what he’s saying
2. If you have it your way and masks were instrumental in keeping Asia under control they don’t seem to be doing as good of a job anymore
3. He makes the point that once the particle leaves the body it’s no longer a medical point but a physics problem. To some extent he is correct in this. The medical people who have been advising on this can help define the particle and how it presents once it’s left the body but not how the physics affect it or the masks afterwards
4. He has been retained by industry and the uk government to consult on this so he is presumably a qualified expert. The medical professionals advising on other than the structure of particles leaving the body are not experts on this.

I assume this makes sense to you, but not to me. Perhaps I should surrender and pay up at the paywall.