Bad News Thread

dad4 said:
yeah, yeah. blue pill, red pill, pink pill, whatevah. Let’s go back to thinking.

Speed of breath in terms of meters per second, not breaths per minute.

That is, how fast is your breath travelling once it is 5 inches from your face? (and what does that imply about the distance it travels in the first 3 seconds after you exhale?)

An asthmatic thinking about speed of breath is thinking about breaths per minute. That’s an important question for personal comfort, but does not affect the velocity I’m talking about.

A simple test is to wet your finger and put it in front of your face. Your breath will cool it when you talk- but not if you have a mask on. The mask is slowing the velocity of your exhalation.
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dad4 said:
No one can answer your “Masks work, right?” question. You are asking for a boolean answer to a non-boolean question. It’s no more meaningful than asking whether a goalie blocks goals- and insisting that the only possible answers are “yes” and “no”.

Masks reduce the probability of transmission. That’s all. They do not come close to eliminating transmission.

The argument for masks, distance, and moving things outside has nothing to do with eliminating transmission. If you try to think of it in those terms, you will never get your head around it.

All of these measures work by reducing transmission. The goal isn’t zero. Zero isn’t even possible. The goal is to keep cutting transmission in half until it is less than one.

This is why public health officials can‘t just let you go away and do your thing. What good does it do if 70% of us are busy cutting our transmission, while 30% of you keep spreading disease? The disease will continue to spread, because, no matter what the rest of us do, your 30% is enough to keep transmission above 1.
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How about natural immunity?
 
dad4 said:
You still have the wrong answer.

The answer isn't "Maybe". There is not doubt about it. We know that masks reduce the odds of transmission.
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No. You don't. You continue to ignore natural immunity. Which makes it easy to discredit you and those that think the same as you.
 
Bruddah IZ said:
How about natural immunity?
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By which you mean an adaptive (ie making antibodies) response to Cov-2 acquired through infection?

Or do you mean natural immunity as in a broad conception of innate immunity, encompassing all the processes that prevent healthy people from getting sick in the first place. The interconnection between physical/mental vitality affecting a host of processes like complement, interferon, endogenous RNA viral genome chopping stuff, etc?
 
Desert Hound said:
So the latest doom befalling us is the delta variant.

Lets look at cases vs deaths and see if there is anything to worry about.

View attachment 11119View attachment 11120

View attachment 11121View attachment 11122

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I think all three examples shown are ≥50% 18 and older at least one pop. So if we get past the expected lag between cases and deaths and they still appear uncoupled its really good news, especially since a lot, if not most, cases will be delta. Anybody know of any equivalent recent spike data for a low vax country?
 
Now compare the above charts vs Russia. They either have a bad vaccine, low vaccination rates, or both.

Either way we see the rise in cases ARE corresponding with a big rise in deaths.

We are not seeing this in the west with better vaccines and high vaccination rates. I believe the concern over the delta variant is overblown based on what we are seeing so far.

2021-07-20_1350.png2021-07-20_1351.png
 
Desert Hound said:
Now compare the above charts vs Russia. They either have a bad vaccine, low vaccination rates, or both.

Either way we see the rise in cases ARE corresponding with a big rise in deaths.

We are not seeing this in the west with better vaccines and high vaccination rates. I believe the concern over the delta variant is overblown based on what we are seeing so far.

View attachment 11125View attachment 11126
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So the pattern at least fits with a substantial life protective effect in high vax Western countries although we're clearly arm chair quarterbacking with a small subset of data. Encouraging though. As the data emerges, things epidemiologists will be wondering in making policy recommendations include: so we got a mixture of people who appear to be more resistant to at least the Covid19 part of Cov-2, likely as a result of acquired immunity through previous infection, through vaxx, or both. We've also got a higher burst variant that's coming on strong. For those that test positive by PCR (which I assume largely = cases), maybe show a range of non-life threatening symptoms, what sort of viral titer are they producing? Its possible that the numbers right now could mean that the increase in viral production associated with the delta variant basically just cause people that would have been asymptomatic to now feel low level symptoms and therefore go get tested and get scored as cases, even though their lives were never in any danger. In that case the data might indicate that with delta we are just going more effective sampling. Or it could be that with vaxx there is now just a longer lag between cases and morbidity in susceptible people, especially if we bin the mortality data by age or other co-morbities. How much protection are the most susceptible segments of the population getting? Stuff like that. Everyone's really tired of this but we're just now starting to get a look at what the vaccines might be doing out there in the real world.

Best case scenario would be that the most effective vaccines not only save peoples lives but also substantially lower the amount of virus produced during an infection.
 
EvilGoalie 21 said:
By which you mean an adaptive (ie making antibodies) response to Cov-2 acquired through infection?

Or do you mean natural immunity as in a broad conception of innate immunity, encompassing all the processes that prevent healthy people from getting sick in the first place. The interconnection between physical/mental vitality affecting a host of processes like complement, interferon, endogenous RNA viral genome chopping stuff, etc?
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Yes.
 
EvilGoalie 21 said:
I think all three examples shown are ≥50% 18 and older at least one pop. So if we get past the expected lag between cases and deaths and they still appear uncoupled its really good news, especially since a lot, if not most, cases will be delta. Anybody know of any equivalent recent spike data for a low vax country?
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Like Los Angeles?
 
Desert Hound said:
Now compare the above charts vs Russia. They either have a bad vaccine, low vaccination rates, or both.

Either way we see the rise in cases ARE corresponding with a big rise in deaths.

We are not seeing this in the west with better vaccines and high vaccination rates. I believe the concern over the delta variant is overblown based on what we are seeing so far.

View attachment 11125View attachment 11126
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The virus doesn't care what you believe.
 
Bruddah IZ said:
Yes.
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In an acute respiratory virus epidemic, natural immunity as general health throughout the population determines how many and whom in the population is the most susceptible. Same thing with cold and flu. Natural immunity as adaptive immunity to prior infection rather than vaxx is likely a big chunk of the adaptive immunity that's out there. So what's being overlooked or not considered? Peeks behind the curtain. Is this a herd immunity thing?
 
espola said:
The last 10 seconds were the best, so feel free to skip ahead.

Fauci was, as usual, candid and forthright. Paul was, as usual, a bully.
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Fauci's game was to keep insisting that there was no proof he specifically funded the covid-19 creation itself -- while ignoring Paul's point that he had previously denied funding any gain of function research at Wuhan, which now is proven to be a lie.
 
EvilGoalie 21 said:
So the pattern at least fits with a substantial life protective effect in high vax Western countries although we're clearly arm chair quarterbacking with a small subset of data. Encouraging though. As the data emerges, things epidemiologists will be wondering in making policy recommendations include: so we got a mixture of people who appear to be more resistant to at least the Covid19 part of Cov-2, likely as a result of acquired immunity through previous infection, through vaxx, or both. We've also got a higher burst variant that's coming on strong. For those that test positive by PCR (which I assume largely = cases), maybe show a range of non-life threatening symptoms, what sort of viral titer are they producing? Its possible that the numbers right now could mean that the increase in viral production associated with the delta variant basically just cause people that would have been asymptomatic to now feel low level symptoms and therefore go get tested and get scored as cases, even though their lives were never in any danger. In that case the data might indicate that with delta we are just going more effective sampling. Or it could be that with vaxx there is now just a longer lag between cases and morbidity in susceptible people, especially if we bin the mortality data by age or other co-morbities. How much protection are the most susceptible segments of the population getting? Stuff like that. Everyone's really tired of this but we're just now starting to get a look at what the vaccines might be doing out there in the real world.

Best case scenario would be that the most effective vaccines not only save peoples lives but also substantially lower the amount of virus produced during an infection.
Click to expand...

Part of the issue with the testing, though, is that there is now a disconnect. Certain people are being mandatorily tested even if asymptomatic: hollywood movie sets, some schools, some colleges, some fire and police, the military, government officials, hospital admits. Certain asymptomatics are being referred to testing, for example if they've been exposed to a known case. But on the other end, because the virus is less severe if you are vaccinated or asymptomatic, we might be missing quite a few cases (since if someone just has the sniffles they might not get tested thinking they just have a cold). It's going to distort the numbers on both ends making cases an unreliable measure of what's happening.. Maybe positivity would give a better picture, but it's still being distorted by the asymptomatics....it being better to know who actually develops illness, and among those showing illness what percentage is COVID out there right now among the vaxxed .v. nonvaxxed
 
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