Vaccine

[dad4]

Am I reading it right that at 10 week the difference between double pfizer and pfizer boosted is 25%-45% against omicron? Moderna substantially better?

If so, the policy implication from this is they really shouldn't be boosting young men (the gain is negligible and both seem to decline with time, though we don't know what the floor is for the pfizer booster yet) and elderly and immunocompromised should only be getting boosted with moderna (if they go a 4th for this group, it would seem to need to Moderna). Also makes the FDA bypassing the expert panel on 12-15 year old boosters egregious.

You are reading it right, but that’s the wrong chart. That chart is for symptomatic infection. Not really what you care most about.

The data for hospitalization is what you need.

Click on goalie’s link to UK data. https://assets.publishing.service.g...efing-31-Dec-2021-Omicron_severity_update.pdf

Page 12. It puts the booster at 88% effective against hospitalization.

“These estimates suggest that vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease with the Omicron variant is significantly lower than compared to the Delta variant and wanes rapidly. Nevertheless, protection against hospitalisation is much greater than that against symptomatic disease, in particular after a booster dose, where vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation is close to 90%.”

 

[Ellejustus]

 

[Grace T.]

You are reading it right, but that’s the wrong chart. That chart is for symptomatic infection. Not really what you care most about.

The data for hospitalization is what you need.

Click on goalie’s link to UK data. https://assets.publishing.service.g...efing-31-Dec-2021-Omicron_severity_update.pdf

Page 12. It puts the booster at 88% effective against hospitalization.

“These estimates suggest that vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease with the Omicron variant is significantly lower than compared to the Delta variant and wanes rapidly. Nevertheless, protection against hospitalisation is much greater than that against symptomatic disease, in particular after a booster dose, where vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation is close to 90%.”

No, what interests me is symptomatic infections (in part as a proxy for transmission), not hospitalization. The risk for people under 30 to be hospitalized is minimal so that's not a huge deal.

On the other hand, old people hang around each other at nursing homes. And any illness poses a risk to the elderly so they'd be better off in any circumstances doing whatever they can to avoid getting it (because even with vaccination, the age stratification of risk is just so different across the age bands).

For those who are vulnerable to hospitalizations even post vaxx, of course a booster makes sense (but if Moderna is better at preventing illness in the elderly/immunocompromised I'd think we'd want to preference that for the elderly).

 

[Ellejustus]

An infection count of vaccinated people doesn’t tell you much, unless you are a kleenex salesman. Most of those cases are mild.

If you want to know whether the vaccine changes your odds of actually feeling sick, look at Evil Goalie’s chart.

 

[dad4]

No, what interests me is symptomatic infections (in part as a proxy for transmission), not hospitalization. The risk for people under 30 to be hospitalized is minimal so that's not a huge deal.

On the other hand, old people hang around each other at nursing homes. And any illness poses a risk to the elderly so they'd be better off in any circumstances doing whatever they can to avoid getting it (because even with vaccination, the age stratification of risk is just so different across the age bands).

For those who are vulnerable to hospitalizations even post vaxx, of course a booster makes sense (but if Moderna is better at preventing illness in the elderly/immunocompromised I'd think we'd want to preference that for the elderly).

Symptomatic infection is a poor proxy for transmission, unless you are correcting for duration of transmissibility.

Without that correction, you significantly overstate the risk from any group which recovers quickly.

 

[Grace T.]

Symptomatic infection is a poor proxy for transmission, unless you are correcting for duration of transmissibility.

Without that correction, you significantly overstate the risk from any group which recovers quickly.

Agree, but for these purposes it's all we have. "significantly" is a statement currently lacking evidence as several variables are at play including peak viral load, average viral load, incubation period, asymptomatic period, vaccine efficiency (one which we know is not good), and length of illness. If the reduction is 7 to 5 days it won't make much of a difference. Besides, the biggest problem for respiratory infections is at the beginning of the illness: sure there are assholes who go out sick deliberately because what they have to do is too important in their minds (and/or they think masks will protect people)....but the greatest danger is either at the beginning of the infection (when people have a tendency to think they might not be getting sick or have allergies or just convince themselves they are fine) and at the end of the infection (when people through medication or just fluctuations may have convinced themselves they are fine now)...not the middle (where they are generally in bed...except of course in hospital/nursing home settings hence my moderna concern). Also remember a reduction from R10 to R 6 isn't as significant as a reduction from R4 to R1.

 

[dad4]

Agree, but for these purposes it's all we have. "significantly" is a statement currently lacking evidence as several variables are at play including peak viral load, average viral load, incubation period, asymptomatic period, vaccine efficiency (one which we know is not good), and length of illness. If the reduction is 7 to 5 days it won't make much of a difference. Besides, the biggest problem for respiratory infections is at the beginning of the illness: sure there are assholes who go out sick deliberately because what they have to do is too important in their minds (and/or they think masks will protect people)....but the greatest danger is either at the beginning of the infection (when people have a tendency to think they might not be getting sick or have allergies or just convince themselves they are fine) and at the end of the infection (when people through medication or just fluctuations may have convinced themselves they are fine now)...not the middle (where they are generally in bed...except of course in hospital/nursing home settings hence my moderna concern). Also remember a reduction from R10 to R 6 isn't as significant as a reduction from R4 to R1.

It isn’t “all we have”.

There are plenty of people studying the impact of vaccines on transmission. Why not use those results?

Declaring the existence of a poor proxy, and using it anyway, makes no sense.

 

[Grace T.]

It isn’t “all we have”.

There are plenty of people studying the impact of vaccines on transmission. Why not use those results?

Declaring the existence of a poor proxy, and using it anyway, makes no sense.

That isn’t in yet and in any case as I showed you the variables are tricky since there are multiple ones and you have to screen out for a ton of other factors including changes in human behavior

policy can’t wait for us to come to the “correct” exact number. Sometimes, as captain sulley so famously pointed out, you have to eyeball it. That’s what policy is all about (it’s messy not virtuous)

 

[Grace T.]

In honor of the new year, reflecting on the pandemic so far:

-member when they told us China had the problem well in hand and it likely wouldn’t be an issue here? Member when trump told us not to worry about it in the state of the union?
-member when they said it wasn’t airborne? Then it wasn’t aerosolized?
-member when we all rushed out to buy water?
-member when they told us not to buy masks and then changed their minds?
-member when they told us it would be over in 2 weeks?
-member when they told us it was a conspiracy theory to say it was a lab leak?
-member when we were all wiping things down?
-member when they made us wear masks outdoors?
-member when they closed the beaches and trails? Member when nobody cared if everyone got fat in lockdown? Member when you couldn’t even sit down on a beach and had to pretend to exercise?
-member when they closed the schools? Member when they told us they would reopen in the fall? Member when they said they wouldn’t close schools again?
-member when they said it would be over by summer?
-member when they said seasonality wasn’t a thing?
-member when they were afraid the children would all die?
-member when they said hospitalized from Covid instead of with wasn’t a thing?
-member when they said medicines would be available shortly and before vaccines? Member hdq? Member ivermectin?
-member when they said it would be over once trump was defeated?
-member when they said inflation was transitory?
-member when they thought they could control the virus?
-member when they said it would be over when the elderly vaxxed?
-member when all the politicians told us to do one thing and did another?
-member when they didn’t want us to go to church but then the health experts said protests were ok?
-member when they said it would be over when everyone vaxxed?
-member when we thought herd immunity was a thing? Member when the percentage kept moving up?
-member when Biden said he’d shut down the virus not the economy?
-member when we all thought cloth masks worked and were cool?
-member when we thought travel ban could keep the virus and variants out?
-member when they said it would be over by the 4th of July?
-member when they said the vaxxed couldn’t transmit it?
-member when they said the vaxxed didn’t need to mask then masked everyone up again?
-member when they said boosters would do the trick? Member when we were only on 1 booster?
-member when everyone thought 2021 would be better than 2020?
-member when they paid everyone not to work and then we’re stunned when people didn’t want to work?
-member when they said it would be over when the children were vaxxed?
-member? Good times. Good times.

 

[espola]

In honor of the new year, reflecting on the pandemic so far:

-member when they told us China had the problem well in hand and it likely wouldn’t be an issue here? Member when trump told us not to worry about it in the state of the union?
-member when they said it wasn’t airborne? Then it wasn’t aerosolized?
-member when we all rushed out to buy water?
-member when they told us not to buy masks and then changed their minds?
-member when they told us it would be over in 2 weeks?
-member when they told us it was a conspiracy theory to say it was a lab leak?
-member when we were all wiping things down?
-member when they made us wear masks outdoors?
-member when they closed the beaches and trails? Member when nobody cared if everyone got fat in lockdown? Member when you couldn’t even sit down on a beach and had to pretend to exercise?
-member when they closed the schools? Member when they told us they would reopen in the fall? Member when they said they wouldn’t close schools again?
-member when they said it would be over by summer?
-member when they said seasonality wasn’t a thing?
-member when they were afraid the children would all die?
-member when they said hospitalized from Covid instead of with wasn’t a thing?
-member when they said medicines would be available shortly and before vaccines? Member hdq? Member ivermectin?
-member when they said it would be over once trump was defeated?
-member when they said inflation was transitory?
-member when they thought they could control the virus?
-member when they said it would be over when the elderly vaxxed?
-member when all the politicians told us to do one thing and did another?
-member when they didn’t want us to go to church but then the health experts said protests were ok?
-member when they said it would be over when everyone vaxxed?
-member when we thought herd immunity was a thing? Member when the percentage kept moving up?
-member when Biden said he’d shut down the virus not the economy?
-member when we all thought cloth masks worked and were cool?
-member when we thought travel ban could keep the virus and variants out?
-member when they said it would be over by the 4th of July?
-member when they said the vaxxed couldn’t transmit it?
-member when they said the vaxxed didn’t need to mask then masked everyone up again?
-member when they said boosters would do the trick? Member when we were only on 1 booster?
-member when everyone thought 2021 would be better than 2020?
-member when they paid everyone not to work and then we’re stunned when people didn’t want to work?
-member when they said it would be over when the children were vaxxed?
-member? Good times. Good times.

 

[Grace T.]

“Oh Magoo old boy you’ve done it again!” Note this isn’t an ad because under your definition I’m mostly commenting on the nature and history of your posts, not your character

stings doesn’t it seeing it all laid out? How many were you…90%? It’s more of a commentary of the general stupidity of it all (plenty of trumps in there…should have added “member when we all thought this was just the flu”). I can’t help it though if the covidians have much more stupidity up there than anyone else.

 

[espola]

“Oh Magoo old boy you’ve done it again!” Note this isn’t an ad because under your definition I’m mostly commenting on the nature and history of your posts, not your character

stings doesn’t it seeing it all laid out? How many were you…90%? It’s more of a commentary of the general stupidity of it all (plenty of trumps in there…should have added “member when we all thought this was just the flu”). I can’t help it though if the covidians have much more stupidity up there than anyone else.

I'm still trying to figure out your t-cell post.

 

[Kicker 2.0]

It isn’t “all we have”.

There are plenty of people studying the impact of vaccines on transmission. Why not use those results?

Declaring the existence of a poor proxy, and using it anyway, makes no sense.

Any studies being done to gauge transmission on those who have had Covid but have never been vaccinated?

 

[Grace T.]

I'm still trying to figure out your t-cell post.

 

[Ellejustus]

"I got the two guys on to talk about what is happening to our children. In particular, the psychological damage of these lockdowns, this mask use, the school policy, the bullying of children who are unvaccinated and the psychological damage is huge!!!" Dr. Robert

My dd turned 18 this morning at 8:41am. I am so proud of her you guys, you have no idea. Karma is working out the way I knew it would and we see a light at the end of the tunnel. First, she was DENIED entry to the United States Girls Soccer Development Academy League because she went to public High School and dared to play High School Soccer. She was told if you do it, you will not be allowed entry into the USGDA and that was true. Secondly, she and her old man were also warned to STFU or else be listed as a trouble maker and one who asks too many questions when things seem off. Then the Plandemic came and she was robbed of her last two years of her life, as were all the other kids who live on the planet. 16-18 is glory years folks, no matter what Espola says. Those years will not come back either and some adults on this planet will have some explaining to do. Thirdly, no jab, no entry to soccer here in da states at the next level. Talk about being locked out again. You can;t make this shit up and it's been tough on her, I won;t lie. The kid just wanted to play soccer matches. However, we do our best as a family to be there for her. Lastly, any parent raising a teenager these last few years knows it has been a big challenge for all involved. The Master Teachers of the Universe have been training many for the future of this planet and I now see it. This is all been one big blessing of being disciplined from what the cheaters & liars have done to us and the kids and how to let Karma finish the rest off. The Fearsome Foursome is alive and well and ready for another day.

 

[dad4]

Any studies being done to gauge transmission on those who have had Covid but have never been vaccinated?

Yes. They do study second infections, including the probability that a reinfected person will then transmit.

The answer is not going to be that earlier variants make you immune to transmitting Omicron. South Africa already made that clear. It probably just improves the odds, same as the vax.

 

[MARsSPEED]

 

[MARsSPEED]

So my DD and wife both have CoVid right now. DD is better after two days but really was never sick. Slight cough and a fever was all she got. My wife is on day 2 and in bed with more severe symptoms. For some reason I have not gotten sick yet and also tested negative.

Just so you know. I got the first two doses but no booster. My wife has the booster. My DD has the first two doses. This is reminiscent of a bad cold going around our household. My wife usually gets sicker than all of us.

 

[Desert Hound]

Last year, the union claimed that the "push to reopen schools is rooted in sexism, racism, and misogyny." But studies have shown that black and Latino students have been disproportionately harmed by school closures.

Chicago Teachers Prepare To Strike Over Return to Classroom - Washington Free Beacon

Chicago teachers are preparing to strike over what they say are unsafe working conditions caused by a spike in coronavirus cases.

freebeacon.com

 

[Desert Hound]

View attachment 12564

I swear when we look back on this time some years from now we will laugh and shake our heads much like we do when we see drawings of what they did in the past that were equally as ineffective.