Vaccine

Since we're doing the same statistically meaningless percent vaxxed vs unvaxxed thing with omicron as we did for delta (and who knows maybe even before that) what you want is somebody to go to the small amount of trouble to calculate an odds risk ratio (easy to do, but you need to look at the underlying numbers rather than % and that does not serve the interests of the actors cranking this stuff out). Anyway, since I was looking at it last it last night on the UK covid site, here is the VE data for the UK vs. omicron. This is more useful. The graphs are based on population-based data coming at what is likely to be near the peak of the UK omicron wave, so a reasonable point to look at it. Source linked below, see section 3 for methodology. Since omicron presents with pretty mild syptoms in most people what i had hoped to find was anything about how much stimulation of antibody secretion accrues with omicron infection. it may not be much, which would then shape the selection pressure acting on the virus on the backside of the wave. So if anybody comes across something like CD4, CD8 T cell levels post-omicron, please post.



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Ellejustus said:
Is this accurate news headline?

DENMARK: 90% Of Omicron Infections Found In 'Fully Vaccinated' Or 'Boosted' Individuals
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An infection count of vaccinated people doesn’t tell you much, unless you are a kleenex salesman. Most of those cases are mild.

If you want to know whether the vaccine changes your odds of actually feeling sick, look at Evil Goalie’s chart.
 
For nearly two years, we’ve wondered how this will end. In retrospect, the clue is in how it began.

The initial lockdowns had a strong class-based component. The working classes were assigned the job of delivering groceries, tending to the sick, driving the trucks filled with goods, keeping the lights on, and keeping the fuel running. The professional class, among whom were the people who pushed lockdowns in the name of disease avoidance/suppression, were assigned the job of staying home in their pajamas and staying safe.

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So it now seems obvious to me. This whole disaster would finally come to an end (or at least the end would begin) when it became obvious that the great strategy of class division and demarcation would fail to protect the Zoom class from infection.

That day has finally arrived, with cases soaring in many parts of the country and hitting everyone of every class, whether they are being “careful” and adhering to the “mitigation measures” or not. What’s even more striking is how even the vaccines, which were supposed to codify the wisdom of class segregation, have not protected against infection.

All of this seems to have taken place over the course of December 2021, with the arrival of the seemingly mild Omicron variant..........In other words, millions from among all classes of people are finally getting sick. At this point, we seem to be seeing a big shift in attitudes.

A person comes down with Covid, perhaps confirmed by the newly fashionable at-home tests. “Did you get vaccinated?” the person is invariably asked. The answer comes back: yes and boosted. That’s when the chill happens. It appears that nothing can ultimately protect people from this. In which case, it is time we change our tune.

“Thousands who ‘followed the rules’ are about to get covid. They shouldn’t be ashamed,” headlines the Washington Post.

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So on the piece goes, with a complete flip of the narrative they have long preached: anyone who gets Covid has failed to comply, disregards of Fauci’s advice, probably lives in a Red state, rejects the science, and otherwise bears the mark of selfishness and the desire to put freedom ahead of public health.

Getting Covid has heretofore been part of a human stain, consistent with the very long history of demonization of the diseased and the attempt to attribute sickness to moral sin.

www.theepochtimes.com

The Zoom Class Gets Covid

Commentary For nearly two years, we’ve wondered how this will end. In retrospect, the clue is in how ...
www.theepochtimes.com www.theepochtimes.com
 
dad4 said:
An infection count of vaccinated people doesn’t tell you much, unless you are a kleenex salesman. Most of those cases are mild.

If you want to know whether the vaccine changes your odds of actually feeling sick, look at Evil Goalie’s chart.
Click to expand...

Cleaning up my desktop after a dive through what Cov-2 may have up its sleeve for 2022. If you teach math, occurred to me you might find some of the simple proportion, rate, etc calculations in this paper as practical teaching examples. Note that the final part of it on "how many replication cycles is required for the virus to sample all possible mutations" is sort of rendered under-powered by omicron. With omicron its clear need to consider all possible combinations of mutations rather than individual changes at single base locations. So that's ~ 3 x 10(16) unique combinations for the entire 30 kbp genome and ~ 1 x 10(13) for the S gene region. Seems possible the replicative engine of omicron may have the drive to sample all those combinations, especially once it hits India and the pacific rim (going on 8 months out from Delta). If we go from ~300 million reported cases globally now, where might that number stand by the end of the year? Pretty amazing.

www.pnas.org

The total number and mass of SARS-CoV-2 virions

Knowing the absolute numbers of virions in an infection promotes better understanding of disease dynamics and response of the immune system. Here we use current knowledge on the concentrations of virions in infected individuals to estimate the total number and mass of SARS-CoV-2 virions in an...
www.pnas.org www.pnas.org
 
With the testing requirements to return to school, testing is completely collapsing here in the vc. The line at my kids school has never been worse (usually 50% test elsewhere but everyone is here because they couldn’t get a test elsewhere). I’m at an hour plus waiting right now. My friend is looking for an appointment since she covid exposed her kid and he needs to test before returning to school. No county appointments available until next week, pharmacies and urgent cares booked out for days, they’ve closed the lines at the drive up sites.
 
Desert Hound said:
www.washingtonexaminer.com

We must accept COVID-19 as an endemic disease - Washington Examiner

Beltway Confidential We must accept COVID-19 as an endemic disease By Dan Hannan, Contributor January 03, 2022 12:00 AM Twitter LinkedIn Facebook Email Print Beltway Confidential We must accept COVID-19 as an endemic disease By Dan Hannan, Contributor January 03, 2022 12:00 AM Twitter LinkedIn...
www.washingtonexaminer.com www.washingtonexaminer.com
Click to expand...

Sort of. If endemic means "everywhere", then yes. But if endemic means how an epidemiologist would look at it "the virus has come to a balance with us and we have come to a balance with it" then we got a long way to go. I'd agree with you that from the human side a lot of people are just done. But the virus isn't.
 
Right now I know far more people with Covid then cumulatively in the last two years. All fully vaxxed and based on symptoms most appear to be Delta not Omicron, but that's speculation.

Testing is a nightmare here in San Diego.

Heard on the news 2700 schools are closed or 100% online.
 
watfly said:
Heard on the news 2700 schools are closed or 100% online.
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I am a slow learner.

To recap.

- kids have essentially zero risk of covid as we know.
- we also know that the omicon version of covid is rather mild.
- that would imply there is even less risk to kids/adults.

So the go to solution is to close schools?

Amazing
 
Desert Hound said:
I am a slow learner.

To recap.

- kids have essentially zero risk of covid as we know.
- we also know that the omicon version of covid is rather mild.
- that would imply there is even less risk to kids/adults.

So the go to solution is to close schools?

Amazing
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A lot of it is being driven by the teachers' unions. I'm not sure why teachers' get special treatment when we have people in food service working in person with much greater risk. Apparently, teachers are not essential workers, I hope we remember that when their contracts come up for renewal.
 
watfly said:
Right now I know far more people with Covid then cumulatively in the last two years. All fully vaxxed and based on symptoms most appear to be Delta not Omicron, but that's speculation.

Testing is a nightmare here in San Diego.

Heard on the news 2700 schools are closed or 100% online.
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This is also my experience to date. Mild to medium flu sypmtoms for the ones getting sick. All vaccinated, and a few boostered. All basically the same sickness. Just waiting for my turn..... Inevitable is a decent word.
 
baldref said:
This is also my experience to date. Mild to medium flu sypmtoms for the ones getting sick. All vaccinated, and a few boostered. All basically the same sickness. Just waiting for my turn..... Inevitable is a decent word.
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A few I know are pretty bad flu, one passed out and cracked his noggin...12 stitches.

Inevitable is probably the right word. I'm not being reckless, still careful (which some may argue since I went to the Rose Bowl), but it seems regardless that the odds of me getting Covid are pretty good. I never thought that previously. The virus finds a way, more so than ever.
 
dad4 said:
An infection count of vaccinated people doesn’t tell you much, unless you are a kleenex salesman. Most of those cases are mild.

If you want to know whether the vaccine changes your odds of actually feeling sick, look at Evil Goalie’s chart.
Click to expand...
Am I reading it right that at 10 week the difference between double pfizer and pfizer boosted is 25%-45% against omicron? Moderna substantially better?

If so, the policy implication from this is they really shouldn't be boosting young men (the gain is negligible and both seem to decline with time, though we don't know what the floor is for the pfizer booster yet) and elderly and immunocompromised should only be getting boosted with moderna (if they go a 4th for this group, it would seem to need to Moderna). Also makes the FDA bypassing the expert panel on 12-15 year old boosters egregious.
 
Grace T. said:
With the testing requirements to return to school, testing is completely collapsing here in the vc. The line at my kids school has never been worse (usually 50% test elsewhere but everyone is here because they couldn’t get a test elsewhere). I’m at an hour plus waiting right now. My friend is looking for an appointment since she covid exposed her kid and he needs to test before returning to school. No county appointments available until next week, pharmacies and urgent cares booked out for days, they’ve closed the lines at the drive up sites.
Click to expand...
Lines everywhere to take a test that no one can find. I see so much fear I now have compassion and kindness towards all humans.
 
Desert Hound said:
I am a slow learner.

To recap.

- kids have essentially zero risk of covid as we know.
- we also know that the omicon version of covid is rather mild.
- that would imply there is even less risk to kids/adults.

So the go to solution is to close schools?

Amazing
Click to expand...
It's not a solution Hound. It's a move and the kids are the pawns. It must become worse before it get's better. It has to be this way because so many cheated. Most people who support Joey still say one thing, "He's better then Trump."
 
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