An infection count of vaccinated people doesn’t tell you much, unless you are a kleenex salesman. Most of those cases are mild.
If you want to know whether the vaccine changes your odds of actually feeling sick, look at Evil Goalie’s chart.
Vaccine
- Thread starter Multi Sport
- Start date
If you want to know whether the vaccine changes your odds of actually feeling sick, look at Evil Goalie’s chart.
Desert Hound
DA
For nearly two years, we’ve wondered how this will end. In retrospect, the clue is in how it began.
The initial lockdowns had a strong class-based component. The working classes were assigned the job of delivering groceries, tending to the sick, driving the trucks filled with goods, keeping the lights on, and keeping the fuel running. The professional class, among whom were the people who pushed lockdowns in the name of disease avoidance/suppression, were assigned the job of staying home in their pajamas and staying safe.
--
So it now seems obvious to me. This whole disaster would finally come to an end (or at least the end would begin) when it became obvious that the great strategy of class division and demarcation would fail to protect the Zoom class from infection.
That day has finally arrived, with cases soaring in many parts of the country and hitting everyone of every class, whether they are being “careful” and adhering to the “mitigation measures” or not. What’s even more striking is how even the vaccines, which were supposed to codify the wisdom of class segregation, have not protected against infection.
All of this seems to have taken place over the course of December 2021, with the arrival of the seemingly mild Omicron variant..........In other words, millions from among all classes of people are finally getting sick. At this point, we seem to be seeing a big shift in attitudes.
A person comes down with Covid, perhaps confirmed by the newly fashionable at-home tests. “Did you get vaccinated?” the person is invariably asked. The answer comes back: yes and boosted. That’s when the chill happens. It appears that nothing can ultimately protect people from this. In which case, it is time we change our tune.
“Thousands who ‘followed the rules’ are about to get covid. They shouldn’t be ashamed,” headlines the Washington Post.
--
So on the piece goes, with a complete flip of the narrative they have long preached: anyone who gets Covid has failed to comply, disregards of Fauci’s advice, probably lives in a Red state, rejects the science, and otherwise bears the mark of selfishness and the desire to put freedom ahead of public health.
Getting Covid has heretofore been part of a human stain, consistent with the very long history of demonization of the diseased and the attempt to attribute sickness to moral sin.
www.theepochtimes.com
The initial lockdowns had a strong class-based component. The working classes were assigned the job of delivering groceries, tending to the sick, driving the trucks filled with goods, keeping the lights on, and keeping the fuel running. The professional class, among whom were the people who pushed lockdowns in the name of disease avoidance/suppression, were assigned the job of staying home in their pajamas and staying safe.
--
So it now seems obvious to me. This whole disaster would finally come to an end (or at least the end would begin) when it became obvious that the great strategy of class division and demarcation would fail to protect the Zoom class from infection.
That day has finally arrived, with cases soaring in many parts of the country and hitting everyone of every class, whether they are being “careful” and adhering to the “mitigation measures” or not. What’s even more striking is how even the vaccines, which were supposed to codify the wisdom of class segregation, have not protected against infection.
All of this seems to have taken place over the course of December 2021, with the arrival of the seemingly mild Omicron variant..........In other words, millions from among all classes of people are finally getting sick. At this point, we seem to be seeing a big shift in attitudes.
A person comes down with Covid, perhaps confirmed by the newly fashionable at-home tests. “Did you get vaccinated?” the person is invariably asked. The answer comes back: yes and boosted. That’s when the chill happens. It appears that nothing can ultimately protect people from this. In which case, it is time we change our tune.
“Thousands who ‘followed the rules’ are about to get covid. They shouldn’t be ashamed,” headlines the Washington Post.
--
So on the piece goes, with a complete flip of the narrative they have long preached: anyone who gets Covid has failed to comply, disregards of Fauci’s advice, probably lives in a Red state, rejects the science, and otherwise bears the mark of selfishness and the desire to put freedom ahead of public health.
Getting Covid has heretofore been part of a human stain, consistent with the very long history of demonization of the diseased and the attempt to attribute sickness to moral sin.
The Zoom Class Gets Covid
Commentary For nearly two years, we’ve wondered how this will end. In retrospect, the clue is in how ...
Desert Hound
DA
We must accept COVID-19 as an endemic disease - Washington Examiner
Beltway Confidential We must accept COVID-19 as an endemic disease By Dan Hannan, Contributor January 03, 2022 12:00 AM Twitter LinkedIn Facebook Email Print Beltway Confidential We must accept COVID-19 as an endemic disease By Dan Hannan, Contributor January 03, 2022 12:00 AM Twitter LinkedIn...
www.washingtonexaminer.com
EvilGoalie 21
GOLD
Cleaning up my desktop after a dive through what Cov-2 may have up its sleeve for 2022. If you teach math, occurred to me you might find some of the simple proportion, rate, etc calculations in this paper as practical teaching examples. Note that the final part of it on "how many replication cycles is required for the virus to sample all possible mutations" is sort of rendered under-powered by omicron. With omicron its clear need to consider all possible combinations of mutations rather than individual changes at single base locations. So that's ~ 3 x 10(16) unique combinations for the entire 30 kbp genome and ~ 1 x 10(13) for the S gene region. Seems possible the replicative engine of omicron may have the drive to sample all those combinations, especially once it hits India and the pacific rim (going on 8 months out from Delta). If we go from ~300 million reported cases globally now, where might that number stand by the end of the year? Pretty amazing.
The total number and mass of SARS-CoV-2 virions
Knowing the absolute numbers of virions in an infection promotes better understanding of disease dynamics and response of the immune system. Here we use current knowledge on the concentrations of virions in infected individuals to estimate the total number and mass of SARS-CoV-2 virions in an...
www.pnas.org
With the testing requirements to return to school, testing is completely collapsing here in the vc. The line at my kids school has never been worse (usually 50% test elsewhere but everyone is here because they couldn’t get a test elsewhere). I’m at an hour plus waiting right now. My friend is looking for an appointment since she covid exposed her kid and he needs to test before returning to school. No county appointments available until next week, pharmacies and urgent cares booked out for days, they’ve closed the lines at the drive up sites.
EvilGoalie 21
GOLD
We must accept COVID-19 as an endemic disease - Washington Examiner
Beltway Confidential We must accept COVID-19 as an endemic disease By Dan Hannan, Contributor January 03, 2022 12:00 AM Twitter LinkedIn Facebook Email Print Beltway Confidential We must accept COVID-19 as an endemic disease By Dan Hannan, Contributor January 03, 2022 12:00 AM Twitter LinkedIn...
Sort of. If endemic means "everywhere", then yes. But if endemic means how an epidemiologist would look at it "the virus has come to a balance with us and we have come to a balance with it" then we got a long way to go. I'd agree with you that from the human side a lot of people are just done. But the virus isn't.
Right now I know far more people with Covid then cumulatively in the last two years. All fully vaxxed and based on symptoms most appear to be Delta not Omicron, but that's speculation.
Testing is a nightmare here in San Diego.
Heard on the news 2700 schools are closed or 100% online.
Testing is a nightmare here in San Diego.
Heard on the news 2700 schools are closed or 100% online.
Desert Hound
DA
I am a slow learner.
To recap.
- kids have essentially zero risk of covid as we know.
- we also know that the omicon version of covid is rather mild.
- that would imply there is even less risk to kids/adults.
So the go to solution is to close schools?
Amazing
A lot of it is being driven by the teachers' unions. I'm not sure why teachers' get special treatment when we have people in food service working in person with much greater risk. Apparently, teachers are not essential workers, I hope we remember that when their contracts come up for renewal.
baldref
GOLD
This is also my experience to date. Mild to medium flu sypmtoms for the ones getting sick. All vaccinated, and a few boostered. All basically the same sickness. Just waiting for my turn..... Inevitable is a decent word.
Desert Hound
DA
And while people around the world freak out about omicron...here is the latest.
A disconnect perhaps?
A disconnect perhaps?
A few I know are pretty bad flu, one passed out and cracked his noggin...12 stitches.
Inevitable is probably the right word. I'm not being reckless, still careful (which some may argue since I went to the Rose Bowl), but it seems regardless that the odds of me getting Covid are pretty good. I never thought that previously. The virus finds a way, more so than ever.
Am I reading it right that at 10 week the difference between double pfizer and pfizer boosted is 25%-45% against omicron? Moderna substantially better?
If so, the policy implication from this is they really shouldn't be boosting young men (the gain is negligible and both seem to decline with time, though we don't know what the floor is for the pfizer booster yet) and elderly and immunocompromised should only be getting boosted with moderna (if they go a 4th for this group, it would seem to need to Moderna). Also makes the FDA bypassing the expert panel on 12-15 year old boosters egregious.
Lines everywhere to take a test that no one can find. I see so much fear I now have compassion and kindness towards all humans.
The t-cell portion of the equation. Remember y'all when some (not necessarily here on the forum) were calling t-cells conspiracy theories? Ahh 2020 we miss you already.
It's not a solution Hound. It's a move and the kids are the pawns. It must become worse before it get's better. It has to be this way because so many cheated. Most people who support Joey still say one thing, "He's better then Trump."
Los Angeles testing situation is about to get a whole lot worse.....
www.latimes.com
L.A. Unified orders COVID testing before school resumes amid high Omicron anxiety
Schools are reopening this week and next with families and employees nervous about health risks from the Omicron surge.
www.latimes.com
p.s. Eric Sondheimer of LA Times is reporting a handful of Los Angeles schools are pausing indoor sports.Los Angeles testing situation is about to get a whole lot worse.....
L.A. Unified orders COVID testing before school resumes amid high Omicron anxiety
Schools are reopening this week and next with families and employees nervous about health risks from the Omicron surge.
You are reading it right, but that’s the wrong chart. That chart is for symptomatic infection. Not really what you care most about.
The data for hospitalization is what you need.
Click on goalie’s link to UK data. https://assets.publishing.service.g...efing-31-Dec-2021-Omicron_severity_update.pdf
Page 12. It puts the booster at 88% effective against hospitalization.
“These estimates suggest that vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease with the Omicron variant is significantly lower than compared to the Delta variant and wanes rapidly. Nevertheless, protection against hospitalisation is much greater than that against symptomatic disease, in particular after a booster dose, where vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation is close to 90%.”
No, what interests me is symptomatic infections (in part as a proxy for transmission), not hospitalization. The risk for people under 30 to be hospitalized is minimal so that's not a huge deal.
On the other hand, old people hang around each other at nursing homes. And any illness poses a risk to the elderly so they'd be better off in any circumstances doing whatever they can to avoid getting it (because even with vaccination, the age stratification of risk is just so different across the age bands).
For those who are vulnerable to hospitalizations even post vaxx, of course a booster makes sense (but if Moderna is better at preventing illness in the elderly/immunocompromised I'd think we'd want to preference that for the elderly).