Bad News Thread

"For society at large, the conclusion was obvious. We had to protect older, high-risk people while younger low-risk adults kept society moving.
But that didn’t happen. Instead, schools closed while nursing homes went unprotected. Why? It made no sense. "

I have to agree. Made no sense. To this day some still think it is/was impossible to protect the vulnerable and the only solution was the one size fits all blanket policy.

"Instead of understanding the pandemic, we were encouraged to fear it. Instead of life, we got lockdowns and death. We got delayed cancer diagnoses, worse cardiovascular-disease outcomes, deteriorating mental health, and a lot more collateral public-health damage from lockdown. Children, the elderly and the working class were the hardest hit by what can only be described as the biggest public-health fiasco in history."

"Throughout the 2020 spring wave, Sweden kept daycare and schools open for every one of its 1.8million children aged between one and 15. And it did so without subjecting them to testing, masks, physical barriers or social distancing. This policy led to precisely zero Covid deaths in that age group, while teachers had a Covid risk similar to the average of other professions. The Swedish Public Health Agency reported these facts in mid-June, but in the US lockdown proponents still pushed for school closures."

"Something was clearly amiss with the media. Among infectious-disease epidemiology colleagues that I know, most favour focused protection of high-risk groups instead of lockdowns, but the media made it sound like there was a scientific consensus for general lockdowns."

The above statement should hit home for @dad4 but it won't.

"I invited two scientists to join me, Sunetra Gupta from the University of Oxford, one of the world’s pre-eminent infectious-disease epidemiologists, and Jay Bhattacharya from Stanford University, an expert on infectious diseases and vulnerable populations. To the surprise of AIER, the three of us also decided to write a declaration arguing for focused protection instead of lockdowns. We called it the Great Barrington Declaration (GBD).

Opposition to lockdowns had been deemed unscientific. When scientists spoke out against lockdowns, they were ignored, considered a fringe voice, or accused of not having proper credentials. We thought it would be hard to ignore something authored by three senior infectious-disease epidemiologists from what were three respectable universities. We were right. All hell broke loose. That was good.

Some colleagues threw epithets at us like ‘crazy’, ‘exorcist’, ‘mass murderer’ or ‘Trumpian’. Some accused us of taking a stand for money, though nobody paid us a penny. Why such a vicious response? The declaration was in line with the many pandemic preparedness plans produced years earlier, but that was the crux. With no good public-health arguments against focused protection, they had to resort to mischaracterisation and slander, or else admit they had made a terrible, deadly mistake in their support of lockdowns."


"After the Great Barrington Declaration, there was no longer a lack of media attention on focused protection as an alternative to lockdowns. On the contrary, requests came from across the globe. I noticed an interesting contrast. In the US and UK, media outlets were either friendly with softball questions or hostile with trick questions and ad hominem attacks. Journalists in most other countries asked hard but relevant and fair questions, exploring and critically examining the Great Barrington Declaration. I think that is how journalism should be done."

Read the rest.

 
Or it could be the virus viruses based in part on density and latitude, but otherwise operates kind of like food coloring sloshing in a wave pool....it would all be very random so you wouldn't like that at all.
It isn't latitude. Nearly every other state at your latitude did significantly better than LA.

Not do we see a general pattern of south = worse. Texas doesn't look worse than Oklahoma, for example. Arkansas isn't much different from Tennessee.

Waves sloshing in a pool might get you a good grade in English class. Big fat F for stats, though. Waaaaay too many individual events to blame it on random drift.

Try again. Why did LA do so poorly?
 
It isn't latitude. Nearly every other state at your latitude did significantly better than LA.

Not do we see a general pattern of south = worse. Texas doesn't look worse than Oklahoma, for example. Arkansas isn't much different from Tennessee.

Waves sloshing in a pool might get you a good grade in English class. Big fat F for stats, though. Waaaaay too many individual events to blame it on random drift.

Try again. Why did LA do so poorly?

Told you you'd reject the idea of it being random (the waves are influenced by certain things such as latitude and density [which you gloss over] and yes variant [but that's only a small part of the answer because otherwise if you look at what's happened in India San Diego and NorCal would be impacted too]). It's a complex problem and some of it is random. That's why we get Czechs did everything right and they get 3 waves, worst in Europe. That's why despite no mask mandate Norway and Finland largely escape things (until the end). That's why Latin America, despite 2 countries with the most stringent and longest lockdowns in the world (Peru and Argentina) got both the virus and economic ruin.

It's an interplay of various forces, including an element of randomness. I know you mathematicians like to simply things so you can fit it in your equations and models, but then those have been a failure throughout this thing. Or, if you really want to reduce to 1 variable, go with the LA Supervisors are idiots and they kept schools more shuttered than the rest of the state and even closed outdoor dining for longer than the state (forcing people to go indoors). If you are going to reduce it to 1 factor, may as well reduce it to this.
 
Told you you'd reject the idea of it being random (the waves are influenced by certain things such as latitude and density [which you gloss over] and yes variant [but that's only a small part of the answer because otherwise if you look at what's happened in India San Diego and NorCal would be impacted too]). It's a complex problem and some of it is random. That's why we get Czechs did everything right and they get 3 waves, worst in Europe. That's why despite no mask mandate Norway and Finland largely escape things (until the end). That's why Latin America, despite 2 countries with the most stringent and longest lockdowns in the world (Peru and Argentina) got both the virus and economic ruin.

It's an interplay of various forces, including an element of randomness. I know you mathematicians like to simply things so you can fit it in your equations and models, but then those have been a failure throughout this thing. Or, if you really want to reduce to 1 variable, go with the LA Supervisors are idiots and they kept schools more shuttered than the rest of the state and even closed outdoor dining for longer than the state (forcing people to go indoors). If you are going to reduce it to 1 factor, may as well reduce it to this.

Random just doesn't cut it. There is a branch of math called martingales to handle this.

LA has had about 4.5 million cases. Each one of those is the result of a small number of chance interactions. You end up with a martingale with over 20 million distinct independent variables. And all those independent interactions are random, but with 20 million of them, it averages out.

You don't get a result of 2400 one time and 900 the next, just by luck. It's possible to run the numbers, but we'd be asking whether the probability is 10^-10 or 10^-20.
 
SD did ok. Worse than most of CA, but nowhere near as badly as LA.

What did Garcetti do differently? San Jose, Oakland, and SF were all doing the same thing. None of them had 2400 deaths per million.

The problem was not politicians. Most of socal was more relaxed about rules. San Diego got the easy test (wild type covid) LA got the hard test (LA variant). So San Diego got a C and LA got an F.

Did you forget the Central Valley is part of California and not SoCal. Deaths per million there without the population density of LA.

Fresno alone had 1700+ deaths with a population in the 500k range.
 
"For society at large, the conclusion was obvious. We had to protect older, high-risk people while younger low-risk adults kept society moving.
But that didn’t happen. Instead, schools closed while nursing homes went unprotected. Why? It made no sense. "

I have to agree. Made no sense. To this day some still think it is/was impossible to protect the vulnerable and the only solution was the one size fits all blanket policy.

"Instead of understanding the pandemic, we were encouraged to fear it. Instead of life, we got lockdowns and death. We got delayed cancer diagnoses, worse cardiovascular-disease outcomes, deteriorating mental health, and a lot more collateral public-health damage from lockdown. Children, the elderly and the working class were the hardest hit by what can only be described as the biggest public-health fiasco in history."

"Throughout the 2020 spring wave, Sweden kept daycare and schools open for every one of its 1.8million children aged between one and 15. And it did so without subjecting them to testing, masks, physical barriers or social distancing. This policy led to precisely zero Covid deaths in that age group, while teachers had a Covid risk similar to the average of other professions. The Swedish Public Health Agency reported these facts in mid-June, but in the US lockdown proponents still pushed for school closures."

"Something was clearly amiss with the media. Among infectious-disease epidemiology colleagues that I know, most favour focused protection of high-risk groups instead of lockdowns, but the media made it sound like there was a scientific consensus for general lockdowns."

The above statement should hit home for @dad4 but it won't.

"I invited two scientists to join me, Sunetra Gupta from the University of Oxford, one of the world’s pre-eminent infectious-disease epidemiologists, and Jay Bhattacharya from Stanford University, an expert on infectious diseases and vulnerable populations. To the surprise of AIER, the three of us also decided to write a declaration arguing for focused protection instead of lockdowns. We called it the Great Barrington Declaration (GBD).

Opposition to lockdowns had been deemed unscientific. When scientists spoke out against lockdowns, they were ignored, considered a fringe voice, or accused of not having proper credentials. We thought it would be hard to ignore something authored by three senior infectious-disease epidemiologists from what were three respectable universities. We were right. All hell broke loose. That was good.

Some colleagues threw epithets at us like ‘crazy’, ‘exorcist’, ‘mass murderer’ or ‘Trumpian’. Some accused us of taking a stand for money, though nobody paid us a penny. Why such a vicious response? The declaration was in line with the many pandemic preparedness plans produced years earlier, but that was the crux. With no good public-health arguments against focused protection, they had to resort to mischaracterisation and slander, or else admit they had made a terrible, deadly mistake in their support of lockdowns."


"After the Great Barrington Declaration, there was no longer a lack of media attention on focused protection as an alternative to lockdowns. On the contrary, requests came from across the globe. I noticed an interesting contrast. In the US and UK, media outlets were either friendly with softball questions or hostile with trick questions and ad hominem attacks. Journalists in most other countries asked hard but relevant and fair questions, exploring and critically examining the Great Barrington Declaration. I think that is how journalism should be done."

Read the rest.

Debate has been replaced with labels. Racist, denier, conspiracy theorist, fascist, extremist. This assumes that you even get to express your opinion and aren't silenced or shouted down.
 
Did you forget the Central Valley is part of California and not SoCal. Deaths per million there without the population density of LA.

Fresno alone had 1700+ deaths with a population in the 500k range.
Farm workers in general were hit very hard, up and down the valley. Bunk housing is very effective at spreading covid.

The LA versus Norcal argument is mostly me giving the middle finger to the folks who keep bringing up CA death rates while ignoring the fact that, at the time, LA had a different disease than any other state. It’s completely intellectually dishonest, and by now they ought to know it.

So, if they want to compare a high transmission disease to a low transmission disease, I can play that game. They compare FL to CA. I compare LA to Norcal. Neither comparison is at all valid.

In truth, LA did reasonably with the rotten hand they were dealt last fall. Had San Jose gotten the LA or UK variant 4 months earlier, we would have had a rough time, too.
 
Nope. San Diego is closer, and they have a far lower death rate.

Besides, Texas is also kicking your ass. They’re close to Mexico, too.

Next try.

One might think proximity to the boarder would primarily impact those individuals and communities that have exposure to cross border traffic. (% of the community in those areas and relative distance to the boarder relating to likelihood of a boarder impact)

% of population in TX and CA that are Hispanic is approximately 39% for both states, but only one of those states has large population centers near the boarder, CA. In TX the only approximation is El Paso that faired poorly and is dramatically less populated than SoCal.

San Diego Hispanic % of population
34%

Los Angeles Hispanic % of population
47.5%

Fresno Hispanic % of population
49.5%

I’ll take the boarder for $500 as well. Seems to address the difference in San Diego vs Los Angeles and SoCal vs NorCal.
 
Farm workers in general were hit very hard, up and down the valley. Bunk housing is very effective at spreading covid.

The LA versus Norcal argument is mostly me giving the middle finger to the folks who keep bringing up CA death rates while ignoring the fact that, at the time, LA had a different disease than any other state. It’s completely intellectually dishonest, and by now they ought to know it.

So, if they want to compare a high transmission disease to a low transmission disease, I can play that game. They compare FL to CA. I compare LA to Norcal. Neither comparison is at all valid.

In truth, LA did reasonably with the rotten hand they were dealt last fall. Had San Jose gotten the LA or UK variant 4 months earlier, we would have had a rough time, too.
I told you at the beginning. Engineers socially distance as a way of life. I am sure they were elated at all the new delivery options that came out of the pandemic. Most I talk to have ZERO desire to go back to the office. So, yeah, those folks won't spread the virus.
 
Random just doesn't cut it. There is a branch of math called martingales to handle this.

LA has had about 4.5 million cases. Each one of those is the result of a small number of chance interactions. You end up with a martingale with over 20 million distinct independent variables. And all those independent interactions are random, but with 20 million of them, it averages out.

You don't get a result of 2400 one time and 900 the next, just by luck. It's possible to run the numbers, but we'd be asking whether the probability is 10^-10 or 10^-20.

Ah....you missed a variable again....time....in the end pretty much the entire world is going to end up in the same place. Given enough time, had there been no vaccine, that would have been inevitable. Like the pool, eventually the food coloring goes all over the place. We've seen that again in real world examples, whether Finland, Czechia, South Korea or now Taiwan. Some places (whether NorCal, or Taiwan or Seattle) will do a little better (though note Washington and Oregon did have a late wave which was forestalled only by the vaccine)., some places (notably South America, despite some the hardest lockdowns) do a little worse. Things, such as weather, latitude, density and variants, might influence it on the margins, but when all is said and done, pretty much the entire world is going to end up at roughly the same place, China Australia and New Zealand excepted.
 
Ah....you missed a variable again....time....in the end pretty much the entire world is going to end up in the same place. Given enough time, had there been no vaccine, that would have been inevitable. Like the pool, eventually the food coloring goes all over the place. We've seen that again in real world examples, whether Finland, Czechia, South Korea or now Taiwan. Some places (whether NorCal, or Taiwan or Seattle) will do a little better (though note Washington and Oregon did have a late wave which was forestalled only by the vaccine)., some places (notably South America, despite some the hardest lockdowns) do a little worse. Things, such as weather, latitude, density and variants, might influence it on the margins, but when all is said and done, pretty much the entire world is going to end up at roughly the same place, China Australia and New Zealand excepted.
You really think San Jose is going to end up at 2400 deaths per million? Just like AZ and LA?

I’d take that bet.
 
Reading comprehension...but for the vaccine it would eventually
Not really. Even without a vaccine, other treatments improve. IFR goes down, and fewer people die.

Society also adjusts to lower the infection rate. People get over their mask phobias, install better ventilation systems, and learn how to entertain outdoors. This lowers the peak, and again fewer people die.

So, no, it isn't all equal. Even with no vaccine, a late peak is both lower and less deadly than an early peak.
 
That is incorrect for many. My husband is a public school teacher and is back full time in person. Let’s dial down the rhetoric and constant teacher bashing please. Most are not the lazy losers that some seem to like to paint them all to be. Sheesh.
Agreed. News skews toward the extremes. What we hear most on the news is definitely not the "norm", or it wouldn't be news. It is problematic (hate that word) that we as individuals tend to be siloed in our microculture and not exposed to the norm of other microcultures within our society. Whatever we hear on the news becomes the "norm" for that culture/group. It really isn't.
 
Not really. Even without a vaccine, other treatments improve. IFR goes down, and fewer people die.

Society also adjusts to lower the infection rate. People get over their mask phobias, install better ventilation systems, and learn how to entertain outdoors. This lowers the peak, and again fewer people die.

So, no, it isn't all equal. Even with no vaccine, a late peak is both lower and less deadly than an early peak.
Again reading comprehension. Cases not deaths. If you are finally willing to concede cases don’t matter then California’s system which was geared to cases was an absolute idiocy. Your notion of a mask phobia is also ridiculous. Compliance throughout California at the height was well in excess of 98% indoors , 95% outdoors.
 
That is incorrect for many. My husband is a public school teacher and is back full time in person. Let’s dial down the rhetoric and constant teacher bashing please. Most are not the lazy losers that some seem to like to paint them all to be. Sheesh.

I agree. Cheap shots require less effort than clear thinking.
 
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