Bad News Thread

Grace T. said:
Goat FC is an allstars thing some parents on these forums do....they get together girls from various team and enter them in a high level tournament just for fun, minimal coaching
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When my dd played, it was just a bunch of club players ((just soccer players)) and their parents looking to play for fun, with no Doc or Yeller to yell at them or fat shame or as one idiot male coach asked some girls who were crying, "are you on your period again? Total loser male coach with no dd or ds. It was pure fun and the girls had fun and so did us crazy ass parents who saw all this before it happen. We just lived it. GOAT is what all parents think of their child. My dd is the greatest soccer player of all time that I watch. It's a blast :)
 
Grace T. said:
Somehow I have a hard time picturing you as being polite. You are a self professed curmudgeon. Frankly have a hard time picturing your family putting up with you. Now that’s love!
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Your statement about Florida saying f/u and your followup statements have no information in them. What did you mean by any of that?
 
kickingandscreaming said:
Not if this guy is correct. Even if he's incorrect, it gives plenty of time for "Team Fear" to extend restrictions (6-14 weeks from now goes until May 14). It could be "orange" in March, but based on history, those in power in CA are likely to determine that we have to continue all restrictions until they perceive this threat is zero. If CA really does allow what they say they will in March if we get to orange, it will mark a significant change in their philosophy regarding the virus. Anyone think we will get a new model in the next few weeks based on the spread of the variants, or will Newsome be too busy fighting for his political life?

***

An epidemiologist who advised President Joe Biden’s transition on the Covid-19 crisis warned on Sunday of a looming wave of infections and said the U.S. should adjust its vaccination strategy in order to save lives.

“The fact is that the surge that is likely to occur with this new variant from England is going to happen in the next six to 14 weeks. And, if we see that happen, which my 45 years in the trenches tell me we will, we are going to see something like we have not seen yet in this country,” Osterholm said.

www.cnbc.com

Former Biden Covid advisor says U.S. should prioritize first vaccine doses ahead of potential surge

Dr. Michael Osterholm says the U.S. should prioritize first doses of Covid vaccine ahead of a potential surge linked to overseas variants.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
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Ok, 2 weeks down: 4 to 12 weeks out now.

“The fact is that the surge that is likely to occur with this new variant from England is going to happen in the next six to 14 weeks. And, if we see that happen, which my 45 years in the trenches tell me we will, we are going to see something like we have not seen yet in this country,” Osterholm said.

“You and I are sitting on this beach, where it’s 70 degrees, perfectly blue skies, gentle breeze, but I see that hurricane — Category 5 or higher — 450 miles off shore,” Osterholm told host Chuck Todd. “Telling people to evacuate on the nice, blue sky day is going to be hard. But I can also tell you that the hurricane is coming.”
 
N00B said:
This is exactly why I don’t want COVID discussions to be solely relegated to off-topic.

Wish there was an alternative or middle ground. Maybe a forum with differing guidelines than the other areas? Possibly, a no-personal attacks policy for that forum, and/or reactions only to express your opinion on a post? Just trying to be creative as I found that discussion worthwhile and I fear that in this section discussion will be stifled with lack of participation to avoid interactions like the above post.
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We can’t even keep the personal attacks off when discussing soccer.
 
kickingandscreaming said:
Ok, 2 weeks down: 4 to 12 weeks out now.

“The fact is that the surge that is likely to occur with this new variant from England is going to happen in the next six to 14 weeks. And, if we see that happen, which my 45 years in the trenches tell me we will, we are going to see something like we have not seen yet in this country,” Osterholm said.

“You and I are sitting on this beach, where it’s 70 degrees, perfectly blue skies, gentle breeze, but I see that hurricane — Category 5 or higher — 450 miles off shore,” Osterholm told host Chuck Todd. “Telling people to evacuate on the nice, blue sky day is going to be hard. But I can also tell you that the hurricane is coming.”
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The reason he’s wrong is that so many people missed the seasonal impact of the thing. The variant only tells you how much wind is blowing to push the fire (a lot). It doesn’t tell you how much fuel is there or what will set it off. That’s why dad in his model when he did the math left off the seasonal impact. If it follows the same pattern as other respiratory viruses (as well as last spring) we should see a rise in late March-June but a. We are taking away a lot of the high risk fuel with the vaccinations and b. It’s not going to be anywhere near as bad as winter due to the vaccinations, seasonality and other burnt fuel.
 
Grace T. said:
The reason he’s wrong is that so many people missed the seasonal impact of the thing. The variant only tells you how much wind is blowing to push the fire (a lot). It doesn’t tell you how much fuel is there or what will set it off. That’s why dad in his model when he did the math left off the seasonal impact. If it follows the same pattern as other respiratory viruses (as well as last spring) we should see a rise in late March-June but a. We are taking away a lot of the high risk fuel with the vaccinations and b. It’s not going to be anywhere near as bad as winter due to the vaccinations, seasonality and other burnt fuel.
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Do you really believe that an epidemiologist that is an advisor to the President of the United States didn't consider seasonality? I think it's more likely that he is associated with a little-known faction of "influencers" known as "Team Fear" who believe that to control people's actions one needs to maintain a certain level of panic. I guess we'll see. If he's anywhere close to being correct, things will be legitimately bleak.
 
kickingandscreaming said:
Do you really believe that an epidemiologist that is an advisor to the President of the United States didn't consider seasonality? I think it's more likely that he is associated with a little-known faction of "influencers" known as "Team Fear" who believe that to control people's actions one needs to maintain a certain level of panic. I guess we'll see. If he's anywhere close to being correct, things will be legitimately bleak.
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I think you are right to some extent. But they’ve also consistently discounted seasonality as a factor. It goes against their notion that the thing can actually be controlled and it’s offensive to them that something like the weather might be the prime factor in all this particularly since they don’t understand it very well.
 
Grace T. said:
I think you are right to some extent. But they’ve also consistently discounted seasonality as a factor. It goes against their notion that the thing can actually be controlled and it’s offensive to them that something like the weather might be the prime factor in all this particularly since they don’t understand it very well.
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From a statistical and epidemiological sense, what is the magnitude of seasonality, and how should it be applied?
 
espola said:
From a statistical and epidemiological sense, what is the magnitude of seasonality, and how should it be applied?
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We have no idea. The experts have no idea. They’ve been caught completely off guard by it. Dad 4 couldn’t apply the math to the model we analyzed because he doesn’t know. Sometimes the answer is we don’t know. We know now though it’s big and we suspect it may be the prime moving factor
 
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