Last year Florida screwed up. This year they have a chance to do better.
Due to the suspension of in-person classes in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, students at universities with earlier spring breaks traveled and returned to ca
papers.ssrn.com
Abstract
Due to the suspension of in-person classes in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, students
at universities with earlier spring breaks traveled and returned to campus while those with
later spring breaks largely did not. We use variation in academic calendars to study how travel
affected the evolution of COVID-19 cases and mortality. Estimates imply that counties with
more early spring break students had a higher growth rate of cases than counties with fewer
early spring break students. The increase in case growth rates peaked two weeks after spring
break. Effects are larger for universities with students more likely to travel through airports,
to New York City, and to popular Florida destinations. Consistent with secondary spread to
more vulnerable populations, we find a delayed increase in mortality growth rates. Lastly, we
present evidence that viral infection transmission due to college student travel also occurred
prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.