The reason he’s wrong is that so many people missed the seasonal impact of the thing. The variant only tells you how much wind is blowing to push the fire (a lot). It doesn’t tell you how much fuel is there or what will set it off. That’s why dad in his model when he did the math left off the seasonal impact. If it follows the same pattern as other respiratory viruses (as well as last spring) we should see a rise in late March-June but a. We are taking away a lot of the high risk fuel with the vaccinations and b. It’s not going to be anywhere near as bad as winter due to the vaccinations, seasonality and other burnt fuel.
Not to be contrarian, but there is a case to be made for continued vigilance even as the case load declines, seasonally, and the vaccination rollout continues to drives down the negative impact of the virus.
The fewer active cases, the less the opportunity for mutations of the virus to evade the vaccination efforts.