Vaccine

kickingandscreaming said:
No, my point is that people who are irrational about an issue do not make good policies around that issue. It's really not hard to understand if you WANT to understand it. So, I guess your fear is driving your inability to understand that.
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This is what bugs me most about modern politics. You assume that, because I disagree with you, I must be fearful and irrational. In the statement above, you reject the possibility that a sane, rational adult might believe you are wrong.

It reminds me of the liberals who insist that, because I disagree with them, I must be “misinformed“. No possibility that I just look at the same facts and have a different opinion than they do.
 
For shits and giggles I compared San Diego County vs Santa Clara County in re: to Covid death rates. Interesting SD is slightly better for those younger than 40; however, for 40+ SC has done substantially better. If you look at demographics Asians have typically done better with Covid and Hispanics/Latinos worse. SC has nearly the 3 times the percentage of population of Asians and a smaller relative Hispanic population as compared to SD. Draw your own conclusions. Didn't have the energy to do LA County as they make it difficult to extract their data in a meaningful fashion.

Deaths Per 100,000
San DiegoSanta ClaraDiff
19 or Under 0.2 0.8 (0.6)
20-29 4.0 3.6 0.4
30-39 9.6 11.4 (1.8)
40-49 38.8 24.2 14.6
50-59 101.9 64.2 37.7
60-69 259.2 133.0 126.2
70-79 497.8 311.4 186.4
80+ 1,467.1 1,119.5 347.6
Total 127.7 94.0 33.7
San DiegoSanta Clara
% of Pop# of Deaths% of Pop# of Deaths
Hispanic
33%​
45%​
26%​
32%​
White
45%​
36%​
32%​
28%​
Black
5%​
4%​
2%​
3%​
Asian
13%​
10%​
36%​
22%​
Other/Unknown
4%​
4%​
4%​
15%​
 
dad4 said:
This is what bugs me most about modern politics. You assume that, because I disagree with you, I must be fearful and irrational. In the statement above, you reject the possibility that a sane, rational adult might believe you are wrong.

It reminds me of the liberals who insist that, because I disagree with them, I must be “misinformed“. No possibility that I just look at the same facts and have a different opinion than they do.
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a. You are fearful. That's pretty much been established by you conduct (the N95 masks in the supermarket)and you yourself have admitted it from time to time that you have an issue.
b. You certainly aren't alone, as has been pointed out to you by the people driving in masks or walking outside with masks
c. a lot of the policy on team panic is being driven by fear and an inability to properly calculate risk. There was, as you'll recall, the poll which showed an inordinate amount of Ds who felt getting COVID meant necessarily a trip to the hospital.
c. It is absolutely true you can have the positions from team panic and come up with the position rationally. That would require actually doing a cost benefit analysis and defending it, but instead what we've gotten is "you are killing grandma" or "if it even saves one life isn't it worth it" and stuff which just isn't supported by the data such as when schools were shut down on the justification of saving kids lives/saving kids from long COVID/saving kids from hospitalization or religion in the absence of data such as masks.

All true.

The libs who say misinformed sometimes have a point. It depends on the information and whether it's true or not.
 
dad4 said:
Then look up the annual number of tourists to Gibraltar.
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Being in the travel biz, I can tell you that the peak season into Gibraltar is over the summer months. Aug being the big month. Note that during Aug cases were declining. Right now it is low season for tourism and yet cases are skyrocketing.
 
Desert Hound said:
It also shows the uselessness of vaxx mandates/passports.

By that I mean here you have an area with about 100% vaxxed and yet they are spreading it amongst themselves.
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We've managed to create the best ever self licking ice cream cone. Big government and big pharma love it. One loves the control, the other loves the profit.

Until a vaccine is developed that provides robust real immunity, this is what we have to look forward to. The vaccine wanes, the booster wanes, the virus mutates. I guess what is lost on people is that the silver lining in this thing is that hospitalization and deaths are significantly reduced. Instead of championing that idea and developing treament strategy, fear porn will continue to be peddled and the silly idea of eradication continues to live.
 
Desert Hound said:
Being in the travel biz, I can tell you that the peak season into Gibraltar is over the summer months. Aug being the big month. Note that during Aug cases were declining. Right now it is low season for tourism and yet cases are skyrocketing.
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Gibraltar traditionally has 10 million tourists per year, and a population of 33,000 people. Even during low season, tourists vastly outnumber locals.

”cases per capita” means you take the number of tourist covid cases and divide it by the number of residents. Not really a meaningful metric.
 
dad4 said:
Grace, look up the population of Gibraltar. Then look up the annual number of tourists to Gibraltar.
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You always shift the goalpost. As Hound has said, it's the off season. A better argument is that the border with Spain is porous and workers cross back and forth. But then that blows your Martha's Vineyard argument out of the water. It also means you are saying there is no herd immunity unless you seal off a high vaccinated place from the rest of the world or hit 90%+ of vaccination in the entire world.
 
dad4 said:
Gibraltar traditionally has 10 million tourists per year, and a population of 33,000 people. Even during low season, tourists vastly outnumber locals.

”cases per capita” means you take the number of tourist covid cases and divide it by the number of residents. Not really a meaningful metric.
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Gibraltar's current tourist season has been very restricted. You can't be on their red zone countries. You have to be vaxxed or you have to take a COVID test before and after leaving the country. Hotels are also very sparse in the territory....most tourists visiting are day tourists crossing in from other areas. And many of the attractions such as the caves have been closed. It's a day trip location., not a resort.

The exceptions are Spanish (mostly there for work) and English (mostly visiting relatives and/or conducting business). Again, your argument is that 90%+ vax rate is not enough unless you shut down travel and/or the world is 90% or more vaxxed.
 
what-happened said:
We've managed to create the best ever self licking ice cream cone. Big government and big pharma love it. One loves the control, the other loves the profit.

Until a vaccine is developed that provides robust real immunity, this is what we have to look forward to. The vaccine wanes, the booster wanes, the virus mutates. I guess what is lost on people is that the silver lining in this thing is that hospitalization and deaths are significantly reduced. Instead of championing that idea and developing treament strategy, fear porn will continue to be peddled and the silly idea of eradication continues to live.
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Yup, and the kicker according to the John Campbell stuff I posted is if true, we aren't just looking at 2 years of this but at a minimum 3 (think about it...if you are pro restriction this is the half way mark right now). As Hound says, best option for the vulnerable is to deploy the pills quickly. Everyone else, get your cold and live your life.
 
Grace T. said:
Gibraltar's current tourist season has been very restricted. You can't be on their red zone countries. You have to be vaxxed or you have to take a COVID test before and after leaving the country. Hotels are also very sparse in the territory....most tourists visiting are day tourists crossing in from other areas. And many of the attractions such as the caves have been closed. It's a day trip location., not a resort.

The exceptions are Spanish (mostly there for work) and English (mostly visiting relatives and/or conducting business). Again, your argument is that 90%+ vax rate is not enough unless you shut down travel and/or the world is 90% or more vaxxed.
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Why does that change anything? You’re still comparing apples and oranges: tourist cases versus local population.

Adding in Spanish workers just makes your argument even weaker. Now you are comparing tourist cases plus Spanish worker cases versus local population. That’s even worse.

If you want to make that argument stick, you need to pick a highly vaccinated place with fewer daily border crossing per capita.
 
dad4 said:
This is what bugs me most about modern politics. You assume that, because I disagree with you, I must be fearful and irrational. In the statement above, you reject the possibility that a sane, rational adult might believe you are wrong.

It reminds me of the liberals who insist that, because I disagree with them, I must be “misinformed“. No possibility that I just look at the same facts and have a different opinion than they do.
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We have disagreed often but I have a better perspective and understand more because of your posts. I don't look at it as if we are on different sides.

Fear and irrationality visit all of us at one time or another but I was simply parroting your "punchline" sentence - except that I actually tied the reason I stated (your fear) to something that was happening in our discourse - you weren't understanding my point and were trying to change the conversation to something else. In changing our conversation you made assumptions that were not true, only addressed two mandates and generalized to all mandates, and trivialized your argument by completely ignoring any "harm" done by mandates.

"You, I would guess, believe that declining to wear a mask or be vaccinated does not harm other people, and that therefore mandates are unreasonable."

You never really addressed the crux of my argument - that irrationality regarding COVID does not lead to rational mandates. You simply took a special case of one of the examples I gave and said it "might even be rational". To my mind, irrational mandates happened with sports and playgrounds last year and continue with mask mandates for young children and the lack of consideration for natural immunity in the vaccine mandates.
 
dad4 said:
Why does that change anything? You’re still comparing apples and oranges: tourist cases versus local population.

Adding in Spanish workers just makes your argument even weaker. Now you are comparing tourist cases plus Spanish worker cases versus local population. That’s even worse.

If you want to make that argument stick, you need to pick a highly vaccinated place with fewer daily border crossing per capita.
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You've just conceded it! You've just said yeah you moved the goalpost again! You've just said that you can't get to herd immunity unless you have almost all your population faxed and you've basically stopped other outsiders from coming in (or the world is totally vaxxed). Don't you see how absurd that it? You are essentially saying that even if the population is fully vaxxed, herd immunity is a chimera (which is what we've been telling you these last several days)...the only difference is you are still grasping at the illusionary straws of "borders"....seen our southern border?....good luck with that one!
 
dad4 said:
Adding in Spanish workers just makes your argument even weaker.
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Actually it does not make anything weaker.

What the data shows is that even amongst a population that is about 100% vaxxed, there isn't protection against the spread of the virus.

That is the key takeaway.

You said a month or so ago you and some friends were mad at the unvaxxed because if they only vaxxed up this would all be over soon.

The reality is the virus spreads easily through vaxxed populations. If it didn't, Gibraltar would not have the highest case count they have ever had.
 
dad4 said:
This is what bugs me most about modern politics. You assume that, because I disagree with you, I must be fearful and irrational. In the statement above, you reject the possibility that a sane, rational adult might believe you are wrong.

It reminds me of the liberals who insist that, because I disagree with them, I must be “misinformed“. No possibility that I just look at the same facts and have a different opinion than they do.
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Your opinion is endorsed by a mandate. WLB.
 
Grace T. said:
You've just conceded it! You've just said yeah you moved the goalpost again! You've just said that you can't get to herd immunity unless you have almost all your population faxed and you've basically stopped other outsiders from coming in (or the world is totally vaxxed). Don't you see how absurd that it? You are essentially saying that even if the population is fully vaxxed, herd immunity is a chimera (which is what we've been telling you these last several days)...the only difference is you are still grasping at the illusionary straws of "borders"....seen our southern border?....good luck with that one!
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Conceded what? You brought up a meaningless statistic, and I pointed out that your statistic is meaningless.

That’s kind of all that happened.

Now you’re going to try to make some US/Gibraltar equivalence: “Border crossings are significant there, therefore border crossings are significant here.“.

US has just under one daily border crossing per 330 residents. Gibraltar has almost one daily border crossing per one resident. The impact on them is about 300 times as large as the impact on us. Just because border crossings complicate herd immunity for Gibraltar doesn’t mean border crossings are at all meaninful for herd immunity in the US. It’s literally 300X more important to them than to us. This isn’t even apples to oranges. This is grapes to watermelons.
 
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