Bruddah IZ
DA
Dad doesn’t believe in meritocracy. If he did he wouldn’t be supporting mandates and lockdowns.
Vaccine
- Thread starter Multi Sport
- Start date
Most of the people who supported cheating, lying and pay to play have bailed. Dad has been so wrong but he still comes back for more. He reminds me of another pal who makes six figures teaching. Great guy but super full of himself. I told him to let his Ego Go and he laughed at me. This was a year ago after the heist or some like to say, "The Crime of the Century." Today, he is now seeing the truth for once and is way more humble. I told him to know that you have a job for life and retirement for life makes one have to keep their mouth shut or lose their job for life. It all comes with a price. That's how you buy people. Job for life as long as you obey and get the jab(s) and sell the jab to your students and neighbors. Two Peas and Pod!!
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what-happened
GOLD
You basically misunderstand my position. Scare mongering is a silly term, especially when relating it to how I view current vaccination efforts. There HAVE been unusual practices in the development and deployment of these series of vaccines. Some for good reason, some are alarming. Getting rid of a control group is not the norm. Why was that done?
If you are comparing the development of these vaccines to earlier ones, then the discussion stops there. If after 20 months you haven't developed a healthy skepticism of our government, then that's on you.
We no longer use the oral polio vaccine in this country because of delayed adverse effects. The CDC is rather quitely ramping up efforts to to study mycocarditis in mainly young, healthy males. We are inside of a year of of vaccine deployment and the CDC is openly calling this a "new delayed vaccine side effect".
People should pay attention to this. If you are a parent of a healthy young female, then your calculus is different if making a decisiono on vaccination - even though there have been instances of adverse reactions in them as well. If you are a parent of a healthy young male, your decision criteria is different. It's good to have choices, especially as a parent.
Bruddah IZ
DA
what-happened
GOLD
I don't know how much time you've spent in the "medical and scientific community". It's not a monolithic entity. Generally speaking, the definitions above have been a constant. To change them in the face of political discourse is dishonest. To not recognize that the medical and scientific community is fragemented is naive. Beyond the headlines that you read or the talking heads that you listen to, these terms remain as defined. To put your faith these days in entities such as the CDC and the FDA is naive. There is a reason why they are losing credentialed and respected people within their ranks.
At some point respect and trust in the CDC and the FDA will be re-estaablished.
It’s necessary to ask whether a vaccine has bad side effects. The polio vaccine is a good example of why this is important. The Carter era flu vaccine is a second. But by this point, there are billions of people who have had a shot of one of the covid shots. If there were any vaccine side effect even 1/100 as large as covid, it would be very visible by now.
Myocarditis does not qualify as a hidden side effect. It is quite well documented, down to the point where both you and I know the relative risks by gender and by cause. Not exactly hidden. Nor did the polio vaccine have a hidden side effect. They knew about it, but polio was worse.
I just don’t see the point in worrying about some unknown side effect that only shows up after five years. Known side effects like myocarditis? Document and quantify so you can decide. Drugs which have never been tried? Be super cautious.
Drugs which have been used a billion times in the last year? Not a lot of sleeper effects left to discover in those.
Now, should people who actually understand the statistics have a good row over study design now and then? yes, and they do. But you are not in that room.
Not sure what your point about control groups is. They had control groups. Ten seconds with a search engine will demonstrate this. At the end of the study, they vaccinated the control group because it would be unethical not to. You think the right way to thank the control group was to leave them at risk of covid for a few extra years?
For obeying the good Doc, you all can have Thanksgiving together without mask, if everyone has been jabbed. So if you want a mask free Thanksgiving and you have that one crazy Uncle Rico that thinks with his brain critically, well he's not invited this year. Poor uncle Rico. However, if you find yourself in front of a pure blood person like Uncle Rico, then please wear a mask to protect him from you. Yes, that's right folks. Today I am asking everyone around me to please wear a mask if you have been jabbed. I'm hearing some reports that those WHO got jabbed can pass the virus to the non jabbed. I'm researching more about this break through medical info. Be safe you guys and please wear mask when you come around those who did not get jabbed. Thanks-crush
Fully vaccinated family members can celebrate the holidays without masks, Fauci says
"Get vaccinated and you can enjoy the holidays very easily. And if you're not, please be careful," Fauci said. "Get tested if you need to get tested when you're getting together, but that's not a substitute for getting vaccinated. Get yourself vaccinated and you can continue to enjoy interactions with your family and others." ((and keep your fucking job)). I'm also scratching my brain trying to figure out who has a Xmas parade during Thanksgiving week?
Fully vaccinated family members can celebrate the holidays without masks, Fauci says
"Get vaccinated and you can enjoy the holidays very easily. And if you're not, please be careful," Fauci said. "Get tested if you need to get tested when you're getting together, but that's not a substitute for getting vaccinated. Get yourself vaccinated and you can continue to enjoy interactions with your family and others." ((and keep your fucking job)). I'm also scratching my brain trying to figure out who has a Xmas parade during Thanksgiving week?
Look, peasant, you took law.
Not bio. Not stats. Not epidemiology. Just law. Never had a math course above the AP in high school.
Now you’re playing junior biostatistician, telling us how the definitions should work. Definitions necessary for models you can’t even read.
How arrogant is that? You never even tried to learn the material, but you spend your time saying the professionals are doing it all wrong.
On that note, I say PSG paid too much for Messi. Clearly past his prime. He’ll drive box office, but after a season or two, he won’t be able to help them win games.
Bruddah IZ
DA
what-happened
GOLD
You live in world of absolutes. You are still missing the point. Your opinion matters to you and your situation. It doesn't matter to others. Vax your kids, have at, it's your choice. Medicine and research science isn't as linear. Choice is an important aspect of medicine, like it or not. If you think mycocarditis is a normal side effect for your healthy 10 year old male , than have it. If you think your healthy 10 year old male can withstand sars-cov-2 (statistically it's in their favor) then don't vaccinate.
The ethics of continuing on with a placebo group is a good topic of conversation. But you paint it as black and white. Many different groups within that placebo group. Scientist prefer to have a control group. Ethically, there are ways to continue a placebo group. Vaccinating the entire group stymies understanding of the vaccines.
Controlled groups help to: identify efficacy against variants, long term protection, differences in paramters (age and infirmity). Funny how all of these things have arisen the last 6-8 months.
Bruddah IZ
DA
Hilarious! Novice biostat guy accusing others of arrogance while applying nothing but fear.
And yet I outplayed the establishment professionals by what…3 to 1? 4 to 1?
The funny thing you don’t get is it says far more about their lack of competence than me. Under your world view that shouldn’t happen but it did. And if it does (not just here but repeatedly) what does it say about the value of the Meritocracy (though in fairness much of what i did was just extrapolate out from what the “don’t pass” minority of experts were saying)
may you have as much luck with psg.
Exactly. It was speculation at best and the "experts" continue to speculate and fear monger. The academic arrogance is incredible, I know you can't "break ranks" so maybe that's why you still believe in projections by epidemiologists after repeated failures. Experts should stick with telling us what happened, not what will happen. How many times do I have to say no matter how smart, educated, researched etc you are, you still can't predict the future.
Bruddah IZ
DA
But he has certainly ignored past respiratory pandemics.. Smart, educated and researched?? Not really.
met61
GOLD
Remember that, back when that article was published, you were still convinced that diseases do not display exponential growth. Grace was convinced that masks don’t work because people touch them. I was convinced that the initial IFR was correct. Epidemiologists were convinced it was important to limit access to outdoor gathering spaces. Not much room for any of us to brag about how right we were on any of those points.
I’m not saying the academics get everything right. I’m saying other groups are worse.
As an example, in April, we had to decide on what to do with recovered patients. The political answer was send them back, which is what New York and New Jersey did. The medical answer was keep them away from others, which is what Florida and California did. That worked out better.
Err, they didn't display exponential growth (at least not the way the experts were talking about). That was a huge failing of the models. They were all limiting curves that, depending on the variant and other factors like seasonality, eventually burned out in waves. When the experts modeled the exponential growth, they were talking about a massive wave which if people weren't locked down would continue to increase until everyone was infected. We know that didn't happen because of Florida and Sweden...eventually the waves, for reasons not fully understood, burned out, irrespective of measures taken.
Again you are misframing the argument. The touching point is if we are concerned about surfaces why aren't we concerned about masks. But I was more concerned with the materials, times of exposure, quality of masks, and outdoors, all of which turned out to be right.
I and several others told you the initial IFR was wrong. I nailed the prime IFR within .1% give or take. You were wrong. At least you admit it.
Many of us said the epidemiologists were wrong about outdoors too. We were right.
You can try to frame this however you want to save face but the bottom line is team reality was much more on point about everything than team panic, which was wrong about almost everything.
Not exponential?
What are you talking about? Doubling times were extremely consistent back then. Plot the early cases on log paper. You get an almost perfectly straight line, right up until just after the lockdowns started.
Actually there wasn't exponential growth in perpetuity, regardless I'm not holding myself out as an expert. Experts shouldn't speculate (because there is an implied sense of credibility which people like you fall for), if they don't have the evidence they should STFU.
When that article was published, my buddy who works at Scripps posted it on social media. I said it was BS fear mongering. How did I know that? It didn't pass the smell test and I've dealt with enough academia "experts" in court cases to know they rely on the theoretical. In the real world you get fired for making a prediction without any merit. These idiots are protected by tenure.
That's hilarious. Then you wouldn't have Sweden. You wouldn't have Florida. You wouldn't have Los Angeles, which curve looked very different. In Belgium in winter the curve turned the day the measures were announced.
The models were wrong. Now you are just blatantly engaging in historical revisionism. You are better than that.