whatithink
GOLD
Tens of thousands- yes far fetched
Trans eligibility rules for girls sports.
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whatithink
GOLD
I’m sure this sounds clever in your head!!!
whatithink
GOLD
I agree that some people will likely try to take advantage. I don’t agree with the common or tens of thousands piece.
Then why was there ever a need to create a boys league, a co-ed league and a girls league?
That's fair, but we're in the infancy of total fucking insanity. There's plenty of time for mentally ill people to continue pushing their mentally ill narratives. 20 minutes ago, not a single, lucid person on the planet would have said men can have menstrual cycles. Now look at us.
You don’t think we have at least 10,000 teenage XY trans athletes?
Use your 0.6% number. If your number is right, it’s higher than that.
CDC 2019 study said there were 1.8% of high school students were transgendered, or 270,000, going both ways and also may sweep in some nonbinary. MTF runs at about 2:1 FTM. So about 180,000 students total if we ignore the nonbinary variable. Of that Human Rights Watch says 14% are interested in playing any sport. So about 25,200. Of that, not all of them have transitioned or have an interest in transitioning as youth because they don't think they are ready. I don't have a figure for that one but let's be generous and say 2/3 are actively transitioning (which I don't think is the proper number...probably high). You are down to 16,800. Of that, how many of them actual follow through and actually compete and have the talent to compete at about the applicable sport in its higher levels in any 1 applicable year? Even with the recent bump it's probably 1/2, and that's spread across all sports, from track to volleyball to horsebackriding to ice dancing across the United States and at all levels. I recall 1 article I posted had for the entire school district in Chicago something like 40+ athletes who'd requested accomodations, going in both directions. Of that, what we are concerned about is the high performing athletes, who actually have the capacity to blow the curve. On the high school level this year, we can count those on our hands this year, including the connecticut runners.
Again, it's possible if the nonbinary are running as high as they are in the UC Survey that this entire thing gets blown up, but we don't really know right now or have a guess as to how the nonbinary want to compete (they may not be interested at all or since most of them are biological woman may want to compete with the women). The numbers in apes run substantially higher (4-8% in both directions, depending on how you count), but again we don't know, since apes can't make the election, what percentage chose to transition. If the number does turn out to be 6%, we have a lot of closet cases running around here....hmmmmmm?????
Here's some more math since I know you love it so. So we have a range (on the generous side) of somewhere between 6-10,000 MTF teen trans athletes in the US. Los Angeles is roughly 1% of the population of the US. Let's split the difference and say about 8000 teen athletes, transitioning, capable of playing at the higher level, and looking to play. If we assume direct correlation of ratios of la/national pop v. la trans athletes/national athletes, that's about 80 athletes in Los Angeles. Of that, how many are interested in soccer? How many in any particular age band? Teams are impossible.
That’s kind of my point. Of those 25,000 XY trans athletes, where are they playing? If they were all in girls leagues, we’d notice.
They play in boys or co-ed leagues.
Remember that an XY athlete doesn’t need to be high performing to make waves in a girls league. Lia Thomas was never an amazing male athlete. Ranked somewhere in the mid 400s. JayCee Cooper isn’t all that strong as male power lifters go. And the Santa Cruz goalie never actually made it above high school JV. All three did quite well as women, but were mediocre athletes as men.
So, when counting the 25,000 XY trans athletes, the question is not how many of them are top tier. The question is how many of them are second or third tier, because that’s enough to take a spot from a biological girl.
The Illinois piece I posted a while back answered that question. Some of them haven’t made the commitment to permanently transition…once you change sports teams awfully hard to go back…and they have an awful lot going on with the rest of their life. Some are flying under the radar. Illinois handles it on a case by case basis whole person approach and they stated they are mostly nothing burgers. Out of the 14 cases that year only 1 was potentially an issue. Reason why your view is distorted is because of two assumptions you made: 1. That they are all obvious and 2. That a pre transition mtf is equivalent to a cis male (it’s possible but if studied it probably shows a shift in the bell curve…the ones who are transitioning aren’t the guys from “Bros”).
Why do you think it is “awfully hard to go back” after changing youth sports teams?
Hard to go back after surgery or hormone treatment, sure. But why would a youth sports team shift be any more difficult than any other organized social group, like marching band or musical theater?
Seems like we’ve uncovered another flawed assumption in your thinking. That’s good! That’s science!!!
certainly the surgery and hormones is much harder to undo. But no one is transitioning just for sports. If you are now playing for the opposite gendered sports team the following have likely occurred making switching back awfully hard:
1. You’ve come out to your parents. As even gay people with open parents know it can disappointing and potentially earth shattering to them
2. You’ve come out to your friends. You might have lost some of them you thought you were good friends over this
3. As anyone who has worked up the courage to do 1&2 can tell you, you’ve worked past the fear and anxiety of taking that leap. It’s somewhat like skydiving out of a plane
4. Everyone is referring to you by new names and new pronouns. They are used to it
5. Your school records and quite possibly your birth certificate have been changed
6. Classroom interactions have changed. Teachers are relating different to you. The entire school knows you as that trans kid, whispering behind your back, even if the school is enlightened enough to be accepting instead of bullying
7. The sports team is just the cherry on top. You’ve tried out. Integrated with the team. Overcome any initial discomfort. May even be mid season. Made social connections.
awfully hard for a kid who is not fully mature to turn around and say “oops I was wrong”. No one is saying hey let me just play with the girls for a season and then maybe I’ll take care of the rest of this stuff. not everyone might be ready for that step…it’s scary. They might be, for lack of a better word, “closeted”: counselors, maybe family, maybe a few close friends know with some experimentation going on but not yet out publicly.
It takes a very special person to see their own words quoted, and accuse someone else of a flawed assumption in their thinking.
You're a bigot Woobie. How dare you....Watch this clip….this is how many feel….I’m not a Piers fan, but he makes a good point.
www.instagram.com
You can’t just decide you are something and expect everyone to just go…oh, ok, sounds good. Some of this stuff is ridiculous and some is serious…it’s hard to discern the people that this really impacts and the attention and advantage seekers. There are some, there is no denying that. My wife has a friend from Elementary school who she has shown me pictures of and looked out of place as a young girl and now is married with a child as a FTM…looks happy, healthy. She said that as a youth she, now a he, never looked comfortable in her skin. I can see this….That makes sense to me. But this is not everyone…we have a friend who has a daughter who is “confused” because her friend group has a cluster of 5 kids saying they are trapped in the wrong body, non-binary, etc. Some of it sounds like “I want to do this belong”…seems like a super high rate. Just a gut feeling…seems off.
By advantage seekers, an example is Biological Men petitioning to be women to get moved to a women’s prison/jail…these advantage and attention seekers exist. Make no mistake.
You’re just closed minded. Unlike you I’ve actually been through something somewhat similar. This is even more permanent of a change since you are basically redoing your public identity.
Well, we know that their taught early their is only "they" and no more he or she. I would also say that kids who are not sure and have hard core Christian up bringing like Espola had can be rough on the youth. I helped thousands of young people deal with many issues in the Christian up bringing. Some parents use fear tactics to get kids to do what THEY want for their lives. I think at a certain age kids need to be set free. 18 is too old. Maybe 16? Hunter Biden was born into some serious stuff as well. We all need to be set free. Love you bro