CDC 2019 study said there were 1.8% of high school students were transgendered, or 270,000, going both ways and also may sweep in some nonbinary. MTF runs at about 2:1 FTM. So about 180,000 students total if we ignore the nonbinary variable. Of that Human Rights Watch says 14% are interested in playing any sport. So about 25,200. Of that, not all of them have transitioned or have an interest in transitioning as youth because they don't think they are ready. I don't have a figure for that one but let's be generous and say 2/3 are actively transitioning (which I don't think is the proper number...probably high). You are down to 16,800. Of that, how many of them actual follow through and actually compete and have the talent to compete at about the applicable sport in its higher levels in any 1 applicable year? Even with the recent bump it's probably 1/2, and that's spread across all sports, from track to volleyball to horsebackriding to ice dancing across the United States and at all levels. I recall 1 article I posted had for the entire school district in Chicago something like 40+ athletes who'd requested accomodations, going in both directions. Of that, what we are concerned about is the high performing athletes, who actually have the capacity to blow the curve. On the high school level this year, we can count those on our hands this year, including the connecticut runners.
Again, it's possible if the nonbinary are running as high as they are in the UC Survey that this entire thing gets blown up, but we don't really know right now or have a guess as to how the nonbinary want to compete (they may not be interested at all or since most of them areHerfe' biological woman may want to compete with the women). The numbers in apes run substantially higher (4-8% in both directions, depending on how you count), but again we don't know, since apes can't make the election, what percentage chose to transition. If the number does turn out to be 6%, we have a lot of closet cases running around here....hmmmmmm?????
