I'd just warn be careful what you wish for. If we wind up separate but equal, then trans athletes will be entitled to equivalent scholarship money taken from both genders (but which if women's football takes off will be much more severe on the girls) where right now it's almost (is?) impossible for them to get any. If we wind up with an open division, the principle of equality between mens and women's sports will be shattered because women will become a lesser subcategory of the open one, akin to disability. If we wind up in accommodations in men's sports, the vaunted meritocracy will go by the wayside (if you are going to go the golf route and start handicapping sports). You gotta put them somewhere. I don't see any scenario (short of the "open" division, since as dad4 pointed out, even FINA has rejected inclusion in a men's division) where they get dumped with the cis men and it's just too bad so sad. And I wouldn't be surprised if the shocker comes from a FTM as opposed to MTF, which as you pointed out, have been long neglected. Kinda like winning the battle, but losing the war, and shooting yourself in the foot in the process.
You bring up some good points. The whole thing actually sucks for all the athletes and kids involved. You are 100% correct.
At the end of the day, my issue is that I don’t want a person like Emma Wyent getting screwed through no fault of her own based on an unfair playing field. You can’t can’t take away Biological Women’s opportunities because a Biological Male identifies a specific way. Your physiology does not change based on what you believe or feel.