Bruddah IZ
DA
Get your Macro on.
Bad News Thread
- Thread starter kickingandscreaming
- Start date
Desert Hound
DA
Actually you missed it again.
The vast majority of the population has no risk. And yet despite that you expect people to not work, to kill off their biz, to not send their kids to school, etc.
You are the one living in fantasy land.
Bruddah IZ
DA
Did you evaluate the risk you posed to others?
Last time we PCR tested people with no symptoms?
Today. Tens or hundreds of thousands of tests.
Asymptomatic screening is so common it's a check box on the test order form.
It's part of the reason positivity is so low.
Bruddah IZ
DA
That fantasy land despises real science and the history of SARS.
Desert Hound
DA
And it is why basically you are the only one left on these boards making your argument. Early on you had fellow travelers. As the real world data came in they faded away.
You are the last one standing there shouting at perceived ghosts.
Bruddah IZ
DA
Hanapaa!!
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
This assumes someone with COVID is as likely to be out among people as those without COVID.If you actually want to run the numbers on probability of running into a covid contagious in person, Georgia Tech did the work on that for you.
COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool
covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu
The probability of meeting one contagious person at a 25 person soccer game or team dinner in LA is about 4%.
The indoor team dinner is, of course, considerably higher risk. Same probability that someone has it, but a much greater probability that you inhale enough to catch it.
So, we let a half million people die of covid to preserve paychecks for ten million? Someone's life is worth about 20 jobs?
And it didn't even work. The economy still is worse than the economy in places which actually brought cases down. We had the deaths and the unemployment.
I'll keep with my take out, thanks. It does a better job of employing people than your plan of letting covid run free.
True.
You know any way to estimate what fraction of covid patients are aware enough to self quarantine?
I have no idea how to estimate it. Maybe someone has done a survey to count what fraction of people are self quarantining at any given time. That would have to be a huge survey, though.
Bruddah IZ
DA
The containment measures we took during SARS-Cov-1 would have been sufficient.
Bruddah IZ
DA
Being hospitalized as "covid patients" might be their first clue.
Bruddah IZ
DA
Why estimate. Look at the SARS-CoV-1 data. People self quarantine for the flu all the time. If you need a survey to tell you when to quarantine, you're the problem. Feeling shitty usually triggers the I don't want to be around anyone until I feel better mode. Sheesh. You smart people make things harder than they need to be.
Bruddah IZ
DA
So we "let" a half million people die of cancer a year? We also let another half million die of heart disease every year? That's a lot of letting. How many Covid deaths do you think hitch hiked on heart disease? Don't be so naive-vil. Why are you letting a million people die a year?
The complication here is the initial period when people are presymptomatic (they aren’t really presymptomatic...they are starting to fe s...tty...maybe feeling tired, lost smell or have a tickle in their throat but otherwise ok). People like to convince themselves in those circumstances they aren’t really falling sick (“it’s allergies”). That’s the relevant percentage (not all sick people). There’s also a question of how you throw in the truly asymptomatic...some studies have said they aren’t very contagious at all, while others have said yes they do transmit the virus if at lower viral loads.
a million people world wide die of mosquito born illnesses. We have the technology (at a very high cost) to wipe out that species. But we do t because of the overwhelming expense plus the ecological side effects that would happen including mass extinctions of other species.
For purposes of transmission, those are all the same. you can call it “asymptomatic”, “pre-symptomatic”, or “so completely delusional they can’t admit they are sick”. It doesn’t matter. However he got there, It still adds up to a contagious person sitting 2 tables over at the restaurant.
No it’s not because there’s a dispute how much the truly asymptomatic can spread it (as opposed to the presymptomatic which aren’t really non symptomatic at all in some/a large portion of cases)
Yes…he did. From 0.001% to 0.0018% as a rough estimate.
Bruddah IZ
DA
MIC DROP!!
Bruddah IZ
DA
The spring of 2021 is different from the spring of 2020, though. Scientists know a lot more about how COVID-19 spreads—and how it doesn’t. Public-health advice is shifting. But some progressives have not updated their behavior based on the new information.... Some progressives have continued to embrace policies and behaviors that aren’t supported by evidence, such as banning access to playgrounds, closing beaches, and refusing to reopen schools for in-person learning....