Bad News Thread

[dad4]

Yes…he did. From 0.001% to 0.0018% as a rough estimate.

What kind of BS estimate is that? It is completely wrong. His personal risk of catching coronavirus in Arizona is over 1/2. And, given his risk tolerance, if he catches coronavirus, he is likely to spread covid to more than one person. There is no way in hell that his personal risk of giving covid to another human being is 0.001%. Even the risk that he gives covid to someone who then dies from it is considerably higher than 0.001%.

If you want to estimate the risk to other people, find the risk that you catch it (around 1/2), find the estimated number of people you spread it to (around 1), then multiply by the overall infection fatality rate (around 0.005 )

So, a medium high risk person in LA might be 0.7 * 1.5 * 0.005 = 0.00525. 0.5%. About a 1/200 chance of having indirectly caused someone else’s death.

That’s higher than most things we do, like driving, which risk another person’s death.

A medium low risk person might be 0.3 * .7 * 0.005 = 0.00105. 0.1%. About a 1/1000 chance of having indirectly caused someone’s death.

 

[Kicker4Life]

What kind of BS estimate is that? It is completely wrong. His personal risk of catching coronavirus in Arizona is over 1/2. And, given his risk tolerance, if he catches coronavirus, he is likely to spread covid to more than one person. There is no way in hell that his personal risk of giving covid to another human being is 0.001%. Even the risk that he gives covid to someone who then dies from it is considerably higher than 0.001%.

If you want to estimate the risk to other people, find the risk that you catch it (around 1/2), find the estimated number of people you spread it to (around 1), then multiply by the overall infection fatality rate (around 0.005 )

So, a medium high risk person in LA might be 0.7 * 1.5 * 0.005 = 0.00525. 0.5%. About a 1/200 chance of having indirectly caused someone else’s death.

That’s higher than most things we do, like driving, which risk another person’s death.

A medium low risk person might be 0.3 * .7 * 0.005 = 0.00105. 0.1%. About a 1/1000 chance of having indirectly caused someone’s death.

It’s called sarcasm….I know it’s use isn’t laid out in any text book so you may have a tough time understanding it’s use and that’s ok.

Can you run those stats on the increase risk on driving then…I’d like to see that comparison since you brought it up.

 

[dad4]

It’s called sarcasm….I know it’s use isn’t laid out in any text book so you may have a tough time understanding it’s use and that’s ok.

Can you run those stats on the increase risk on driving then…I’d like to see that comparison since you brought it up.

I’ll go find an algorothm to explain sarcasm for me.

For traffic fatalities, I have to make some kind of assumption about what fraction of traffic fatalities are caused by someone other than the deceased. Going with 1/2, for lack of a better number.

So, over a normal year,

30,000 fatalities * ( 1/2 are not self-inflicted ) / 229,000,000 drivers = 0.0000655. 0.00655%. We each take a 1/15,000 chance of killing someone else each year we choose to drive. 1/250 lifetime risk.

Over one year, the medium high risk person is about 75 times more likely to cause a covid death than a traffic fatality. Also over one year, a medium low risk person is 15 times more likely to cause a covid death than a traffic death.

Over a lifetime, the medium high risk person is slightly more likely to cause a covid death than a traffic fatality. A medium low risk person is considerably less likely to cause the covid death than the traffic death.

This all assumes covid is mostly over in the US. If variants cause multiple rounds of this, then the risk of causing a covid death rises considerably, as does the pain of living under restrictions.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

What kind of BS estimate is that? It is completely wrong. His personal risk of catching coronavirus in Arizona is over 1/2. And, given his risk tolerance, if he catches coronavirus, he is likely to spread covid to more than one person. There is no way in hell that his personal risk of giving covid to another human being is 0.001%. Even the risk that he gives covid to someone who then dies from it is considerably higher than 0.001%.

If you want to estimate the risk to other people, find the risk that you catch it (around 1/2), find the estimated number of people you spread it to (around 1), then multiply by the overall infection fatality rate (around 0.005 )

So, a medium high risk person in LA might be 0.7 * 1.5 * 0.005 = 0.00525. 0.5%. About a 1/200 chance of having indirectly caused someone else’s death.

That’s higher than most things we do, like driving, which risk another person’s death.

A medium low risk person might be 0.3 * .7 * 0.005 = 0.00105. 0.1%. About a 1/1000 chance of having indirectly caused someone’s death.

Dissing history and demographics again.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

I’ll go find an algorothm to explain sarcasm for me.

For traffic fatalities, I have to make some kind of assumption about what fraction of traffic fatalities are caused by someone other than the deceased. Going with 1/2, for lack of a better number.

So, over a normal year,

30,000 fatalities * ( 1/2 are not self-inflicted ) / 229,000,000 drivers = 0.0000655. 0.00655%. We each take a 1/15,000 chance of killing someone else each year we choose to drive. 1/250 lifetime risk.

Over one year, the medium high risk person is about 75 times more likely to cause a covid death than a traffic fatality. Also over one year, a medium low risk person is 15 times more likely to cause a covid death than a traffic death.

Over a lifetime, the medium high risk person is slightly more likely to cause a covid death than a traffic fatality. A medium low risk person is considerably less likely to cause the covid death than the traffic death.

This all assumes covid is mostly over in the US. If variants cause multiple rounds of this, then the risk of causing a covid death rises considerably, as does the pain of living under restrictions.

Historical evidence?

 

[Desert Hound]

Dissing history and demographics again.

He is still stuck on wondering why the real world doesn't match his preferred model.

He is stuck wondering how it is possible TX and FL basically did the exact opposite of CA and yet all 3 are in roughly the same spot.

He is stuck wondering why vaccinated people DON'T want to wear masks anymore.

He is stuck wondering why people want to send their kids back to school and he doesn't.

He is stuck wondering why people want to go out and do things.

The war is over. People have moved on and are dealing with the real world. What is that? We will be living with Covid for the forseable future. Get vaccinated if you want and/or in a high risk group. People will be increasing hanging out and doing what they did pre-covid despite what the Karens of this world want.

We are not going to put up with masks, social distancing, etc for years on end. Or even that much longer.

 

[Grace T.]

He is still stuck on wondering why the real world doesn't match his preferred model.

He is stuck wondering how it is possible TX and FL basically did the exact opposite of CA and yet all 3 are in roughly the same spot.

He is stuck wondering why vaccinated people DON'T want to wear masks anymore.

He is stuck wondering why people want to send their kids back to school and he doesn't.

He is stuck wondering why people want to go out and do things.

The war is over. People have moved on and are dealing with the real world. What is that? We will be living with Covid for the forseable future. Get vaccinated if you want and/or in a high risk group. People will be increasing hanging out and doing what they did pre-covid despite what the Karens of this world want.

We are not going to put up with masks, social distancing, etc for years on end. Or even that much longer.

I'm now 2 weeks out from full vaccination. We just had our first in person D&D party, indoors, no masks for the first time since this started. Everyone there was fully vaccinated and/or had COVID in the last 90 days. Only 2 of our group hadn't hit the magical week so were stuck remote. Those of us in person drinking had much more fun.

 

[watfly]

I'm now 2 weeks out from full vaccination. We just had our first in person D&D party, indoors, no masks for the first time since this started. Everyone there was fully vaccinated and/or had COVID in the last 90 days. Only 2 of our group hadn't hit the magical week so were stuck remote. Those of us in person drinking had much more fun.

Do I dare ask what a D&D party is?

 

[Grace T.]

Do I dare ask what a D&D party is?

A party where you get together and play Dungeons and Dragons, that role playing game that was popular in the 80s and recently had a Renaissance.

 

[dad4]

I'm now 2 weeks out from full vaccination. We just had our first in person D&D party, indoors, no masks for the first time since this started. Everyone there was fully vaccinated and/or had COVID in the last 90 days. Only 2 of our group hadn't hit the magical week so were stuck remote. Those of us in person drinking had much more fun.

Paladins. You should all play paladins. Healing and divine smite. What else do you need?

-Buzz

 

[watfly]

A party where you get together and play Dungeons and Dragons, that role playing game that was popular in the 80s and recently had a Renaissance.

Paladins. You should all play paladins. Healing and divine smite. What else do you need?

-Buzz

Ok, now you both are starting to scare me.

 

[Grace T.]

Paladins. You should all play paladins. Healing and divine smite. What else do you need?

-Buzz

Figures.

You'll appreciate this. There is a paladin in the campaign (and a rouge, ranger, sorcerer, wizard, dwarven fighter, and barbarian). The paladin is part of a sect that loosely resembles Christianity in this universe and worships a patron saint called St. Justinia (the patron saint against witchcraft and dark magic). He plays him really over the top and fanatical in his devotion to St. Justinia. He thought he was the hero of the adventure but he winds up in this pagan druidic village and starts overturning their idols and collapsing their government. Much to his surprise, turns out he's the villain of this little piece. The villagers are on the verge of murdering the party because of him and have even sided with a band of shakedown gang members and greedy but otherwise benevolent dark wizard over the disruption the so-called heroes, in their quest to better everyone's standard of living, are causing.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

He is still stuck on wondering why the real world doesn't match his preferred model.

He is stuck wondering how it is possible TX and FL basically did the exact opposite of CA and yet all 3 are in roughly the same spot.

He is stuck wondering why vaccinated people DON'T want to wear masks anymore.

He is stuck wondering why people want to send their kids back to school and he doesn't.

He is stuck wondering why people want to go out and do things.

The war is over. People have moved on and are dealing with the real world. What is that? We will be living with Covid for the forseable future. Get vaccinated if you want and/or in a high risk group. People will be increasing hanging out and doing what they did pre-covid despite what the Karens of this world want.

We are not going to put up with masks, social distancing, etc for years on end. Or even that much longer.

Dad4 fancies himself a shepherd instead of one of the sheep. He's not in to challenging the mainstream narrative that is thoroughly debunked by a long history of global respiratory diseases. It's a wonder the world population is what it is when you read his dervishing bull shit emboldened by the rest of the sheep and MSM clowns that get their info. from the head clown, Fauci. Dumbest smart guys in the room.

 

[Grace T.]

Ok, now you both are starting to scare me.

Oh we have a grand old time because everything is played for laughs...so you have a paladin (who is supposed to be this ideal of good) turning out to be the villain of this piece. Alcohol a plenty, I do a ton of celebrity impersonations, we have a comedian in the group and a two teachers who are also really hilarious, and we usually tackle a complicated philosophical moral issue too. Everyone kind of groans when we have to do combat...it kills the buzz.

 

[watfly]

Oh we have a grand old time because everything is played for laughs...so you have a paladin (who is supposed to be this ideal of good) turning out to be the villain of this piece. Alcohol a plenty, I do a ton of celebrity impersonations, we have a comedian in the group and a two teachers who are also really hilarious, and we usually tackle a complicated philosophical moral issue too. Everyone kind of groans when we have to do combat...it kills the buzz.

The only Paladins I knew were a rockabilly band from SD.

 

[Grace T.]

Sad...kiddo also sounds like he has ADHD....zoom learning has been horrible for many of them.

‘I Used to Like School’: An 11-Year-Old’s Struggle With Pandemic Learning (Published 2021)

Without home internet, Jordyn Coleman has had trouble staying connected to remote classes during the coronavirus pandemic.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Bruddah IZ]

Sad...kiddo also sounds like he has ADHD....zoom learning has been horrible for many of them.

‘I Used to Like School’: An 11-Year-Old’s Struggle With Pandemic Learning (Published 2021)

Without home internet, Jordyn Coleman has had trouble staying connected to remote classes during the coronavirus pandemic.

www.nytimes.com

Gotta love them one size fits all policies that Dad4 advocates. And where the hell is BLM for Jordyn??

 

[dad4]

Dissing history and demographics again.

Happy to discuss the merits of different statistical methods with you.

Just waiting for you write a coherent explanation of whatever point you were trying to make with R^2.

Here’s a site to get you started:

Correlation Coefficient: Simple Definition, Formula, Easy Steps

The correlation coefficient formula explained in plain English. How to find Pearson's r by hand or using technology. Step by step videos. Simple definition.

www.statisticshowto.com

You might want to get into analysis of variance before you start writing.

 

[espola]

Happy to discuss the merits of different statistical methods with you.

Just waiting for you write a coherent explanation of whatever point you were trying to make with R^2.

Here’s a site to get you started:

Correlation Coefficient: Simple Definition, Formula, Easy Steps

The correlation coefficient formula explained in plain English. How to find Pearson's r by hand or using technology. Step by step videos. Simple definition.

www.statisticshowto.com

You might want to get into analysis of variance before you start writing.

Watch out for statistics. Reading Parker's Humble Pi today he points out the (apparent) correlation between the number of mathematics PHDs awarded over 20 years and the almost-identical curve of people who died from tripping and falling over the same interval.

 

[Glitterhater]

Is it just me or is there a poster on this thread that seems to be talking to his/herself?

 

[Bruddah IZ]

Happy to discuss the merits of different statistical methods with you.

Just waiting for you write a coherent explanation of whatever point you were trying to make with R^2.

Here’s a site to get you started:

Correlation Coefficient: Simple Definition, Formula, Easy Steps

The correlation coefficient formula explained in plain English. How to find Pearson's r by hand or using technology. Step by step videos. Simple definition.

www.statisticshowto.com

You might want to get into analysis of variance before you start writing.

Cases vs. Deaths. Ready. Set. Go.