Bad News Thread

[Grace T.]

Probably routine vaccine breakthrough which does happen in rare cases (the individual in question was very old with multiple conditions) but roh roh. It makes sense, though, as every indication from India is that their version is much more contagious than the first, is reinfecting individuals who had mild or asymptomatic cases first go around, broke through previous regional resistance to the coronavirus (perhaps from prior coronavirus infections), and has been hitting younger people more seriously. Frankly surprised Biden/Fauci didn't put a travel ban in earlier and that the travel ban isn't more robust.

Death of fully vaccinated US expert in India sparks worry over Pfizer's efficacy against COVID-19 double mutant - Global Times

www.globaltimes.cn

The ironic thing would be if the nonfunctional Chinese vaccine actually functions better against this variant than the mRNA vaccine. Unlikely. Probably CCP hopeful thinking. But life is messy and weird.

 

[dad4]

Probably routine vaccine breakthrough which does happen in rare cases (the individual in question was very old with multiple conditions) but roh roh. It makes sense, though, as every indication from India is that their version is much more contagious than the first, is reinfecting individuals who had mild or asymptomatic cases first go around, broke through previous regional resistance to the coronavirus (perhaps from prior coronavirus infections), and has been hitting younger people more seriously. Frankly surprised Biden/Fauci didn't put a travel ban in earlier and that the travel ban isn't more robust.

Death of fully vaccinated US expert in India sparks worry over Pfizer's efficacy against COVID-19 double mutant - Global Times

www.globaltimes.cn

Actually, they're encouraging people to fly home. Stupid.

It would be far smarter to send plane loads of Pfizer shots to India. Better to vaccinate people there than spread the new variant here.

 

[dad4]

That's where it gets messy. You said you wanted to go there. The person being harmed most likely has fewer years of life remaining. Meanwhile, the children were asked to sacrifice the most for them, despite being the least at risk, putting the old motto "women and children first" completely on its head.

Much of the pain for kids was the result of adults being super slow to open outdoor spaces and schools.

Masks for them were a complete non issue. They fidgeted for a bit, but after a month it became as exciting as a sock.

Even bars/restaurants/casinos/non essential air travel could have been closed if we had a smarter PPP.

 

[Grace T.]

Actually, they're encouraging people to fly home. Stupid.

It would be far smarter to send plane loads of Pfizer shots to India. Better to vaccinate people there than spread the new variant here.

the breakthrough cited IIRC was with the Pfizer vaccine.

You and I then actually agree on something for a change, which means they really must be doing something stupid.

 

[Desert Hound]

Actually, most of the world put in far more effort than you did.

You've been very consistent. Your risk evaluation has always been about the risk to the person choosing an action. Never once did you ask about the probability that one person's choice would cause another person to be harmed.

Actually no.

Initially I was very cautious. I didn't go anywhere nor did I allow my kids.

I stocked up to avoid having to go shop.

However early on the data came in and said....

My kids had zero risk and I had minimal risk.

It was clear early on that a very small segment of our population had 75-80% of all deaths. Within that age group 40-45% were already in nursing homes (a one way stop).

So I adjusted based on actual data.

You didn't.

 

[Desert Hound]

Much of the pain for kids was the result of adults being super slow to open outdoor spaces and schools

That would be as a result of people like you..right?

 

[Desert Hound]

Even bars/restaurants/casinos/non essential air travel could have been closed if we had a smarter PPP

No...because a rather significant part of our population relies on those types of biz to......what is the word I am looking for?...oh yeah...to survive.

10s of millions of people derive their livelihoods on the biz you want to shut down. As watfly stated and I have as well...we lay money that if your income depended on restaurants or bars, you would not advocate for their closing.

You have a guaranteed paycheck so you advocate stuff that doesn't harm you. Yes I know you said you do take out once a week....let them eat cake....

 

[Bruddah IZ]

What about those with no symptoms and thus no reason to be tested?

I'd look at the last time we PCR tested those with no symptoms.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

Actually, most of the world put in far more effort than you did.

You've been very consistent. Your risk evaluation has always been about the risk to the person choosing an action. Never once did you ask about the probability that one person's choice would cause another person to be harmed.

There's that selection bias you despise.

 

[dad4]

However early on the data came in and said....

My kids had zero risk and I had minimal risk.

Exactly. You evaluated the risk to you and your family.

You made no effort to evaluate the risk, through you, to other people.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

.... smarter PPP.

Get your Macro on.

 

[Desert Hound]

Exactly. You evaluated the risk to you and your family.

You made no effort to evaluate the risk, through you, to other people.

Actually you missed it again.

The vast majority of the population has no risk. And yet despite that you expect people to not work, to kill off their biz, to not send their kids to school, etc.

You are the one living in fantasy land.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

Exactly. You evaluated the risk to you and your family.

You made no effort to evaluate the risk, through you, to other people.

Did you evaluate the risk you posed to others?

 

[dad4]

I'd look at the last time we PCR tested those with no symptoms.

Last time we PCR tested people with no symptoms?

Today. Tens or hundreds of thousands of tests.

Asymptomatic screening is so common it's a check box on the test order form.

It's part of the reason positivity is so low.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

Actually you missed it again.

The vast majority of the population has no risk. And yet despite that you expect people to not work, to kill off their biz, to not send their kids to school, etc.

You are the one living in fantasy land.

That fantasy land despises real science and the history of SARS.

 

[Desert Hound]

Exactly. You evaluated the risk to you and your family.

You made no effort to evaluate the risk, through you, to other people.

And it is why basically you are the only one left on these boards making your argument. Early on you had fellow travelers. As the real world data came in they faded away.

You are the last one standing there shouting at perceived ghosts.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

Last time we PCR tested people with no symptoms?

Today. Tens or hundreds of thousands of tests.

Asymptomatic screening is so common it's a check box on the test order form.

It's part of the reason positivity is so low.

Hanapaa!!

 

[kickingandscreaming]

If you actually want to run the numbers on probability of running into a covid contagious in person, Georgia Tech did the work on that for you.

COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool

covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu

The probability of meeting one contagious person at a 25 person soccer game or team dinner in LA is about 4%.

The indoor team dinner is, of course, considerably higher risk. Same probability that someone has it, but a much greater probability that you inhale enough to catch it.

This assumes someone with COVID is as likely to be out among people as those without COVID.

 

[dad4]

No...because a rather significant part of our population relies on those types of biz to......what is the word I am looking for?...oh yeah...to survive.

10s of millions of people derive their livelihoods on the biz you want to shut down. As watfly stated and I have as well...we lay money that if your income depended on restaurants or bars, you would not advocate for their closing.

You have a guaranteed paycheck so you advocate stuff that doesn't harm you. Yes I know you said you do take out once a week....let them eat cake....

So, we let a half million people die of covid to preserve paychecks for ten million? Someone's life is worth about 20 jobs?

And it didn't even work. The economy still is worse than the economy in places which actually brought cases down. We had the deaths and the unemployment.

I'll keep with my take out, thanks. It does a better job of employing people than your plan of letting covid run free.

 

[dad4]

This assumes someone with COVID is as likely to be out among people as those without COVID.

True.

You know any way to estimate what fraction of covid patients are aware enough to self quarantine?

I have no idea how to estimate it. Maybe someone has done a survey to count what fraction of people are self quarantining at any given time. That would have to be a huge survey, though.