Bruddah IZ
DA
The containment measures we took during SARS-Cov-1 would have been sufficient.
Bad News Thread
- Thread starter kickingandscreaming
- Start date
Bruddah IZ
DA
Being hospitalized as "covid patients" might be their first clue.
Bruddah IZ
DA
Why estimate. Look at the SARS-CoV-1 data. People self quarantine for the flu all the time. If you need a survey to tell you when to quarantine, you're the problem. Feeling shitty usually triggers the I don't want to be around anyone until I feel better mode. Sheesh. You smart people make things harder than they need to be.
Bruddah IZ
DA
So we "let" a half million people die of cancer a year? We also let another half million die of heart disease every year? That's a lot of letting. How many Covid deaths do you think hitch hiked on heart disease? Don't be so naive-vil. Why are you letting a million people die a year?
The complication here is the initial period when people are presymptomatic (they aren’t really presymptomatic...they are starting to fe s...tty...maybe feeling tired, lost smell or have a tickle in their throat but otherwise ok). People like to convince themselves in those circumstances they aren’t really falling sick (“it’s allergies”). That’s the relevant percentage (not all sick people). There’s also a question of how you throw in the truly asymptomatic...some studies have said they aren’t very contagious at all, while others have said yes they do transmit the virus if at lower viral loads.
a million people world wide die of mosquito born illnesses. We have the technology (at a very high cost) to wipe out that species. But we do t because of the overwhelming expense plus the ecological side effects that would happen including mass extinctions of other species.
For purposes of transmission, those are all the same. you can call it “asymptomatic”, “pre-symptomatic”, or “so completely delusional they can’t admit they are sick”. It doesn’t matter. However he got there, It still adds up to a contagious person sitting 2 tables over at the restaurant.
No it’s not because there’s a dispute how much the truly asymptomatic can spread it (as opposed to the presymptomatic which aren’t really non symptomatic at all in some/a large portion of cases)
Yes…he did. From 0.001% to 0.0018% as a rough estimate.
Bruddah IZ
DA
MIC DROP!!
Bruddah IZ
DA
The spring of 2021 is different from the spring of 2020, though. Scientists know a lot more about how COVID-19 spreads—and how it doesn’t. Public-health advice is shifting. But some progressives have not updated their behavior based on the new information.... Some progressives have continued to embrace policies and behaviors that aren’t supported by evidence, such as banning access to playgrounds, closing beaches, and refusing to reopen schools for in-person learning....
What kind of BS estimate is that? It is completely wrong. His personal risk of catching coronavirus in Arizona is over 1/2. And, given his risk tolerance, if he catches coronavirus, he is likely to spread covid to more than one person. There is no way in hell that his personal risk of giving covid to another human being is 0.001%. Even the risk that he gives covid to someone who then dies from it is considerably higher than 0.001%.
If you want to estimate the risk to other people, find the risk that you catch it (around 1/2), find the estimated number of people you spread it to (around 1), then multiply by the overall infection fatality rate (around 0.005 )
So, a medium high risk person in LA might be 0.7 * 1.5 * 0.005 = 0.00525. 0.5%. About a 1/200 chance of having indirectly caused someone else’s death.
That’s higher than most things we do, like driving, which risk another person’s death.
A medium low risk person might be 0.3 * .7 * 0.005 = 0.00105. 0.1%. About a 1/1000 chance of having indirectly caused someone’s death.
It’s called sarcasm….I know it’s use isn’t laid out in any text book so you may have a tough time understanding it’s use and that’s ok.
Can you run those stats on the increase risk on driving then…I’d like to see that comparison since you brought it up.
I’ll go find an algorothm to explain sarcasm for me.
For traffic fatalities, I have to make some kind of assumption about what fraction of traffic fatalities are caused by someone other than the deceased. Going with 1/2, for lack of a better number.
So, over a normal year,
30,000 fatalities * ( 1/2 are not self-inflicted ) / 229,000,000 drivers = 0.0000655. 0.00655%. We each take a 1/15,000 chance of killing someone else each year we choose to drive. 1/250 lifetime risk.
Over one year, the medium high risk person is about 75 times more likely to cause a covid death than a traffic fatality. Also over one year, a medium low risk person is 15 times more likely to cause a covid death than a traffic death.
Over a lifetime, the medium high risk person is slightly more likely to cause a covid death than a traffic fatality. A medium low risk person is considerably less likely to cause the covid death than the traffic death.
This all assumes covid is mostly over in the US. If variants cause multiple rounds of this, then the risk of causing a covid death rises considerably, as does the pain of living under restrictions.
Bruddah IZ
DA
Dissing history and demographics again.
Bruddah IZ
DA
Historical evidence?
Desert Hound
DA
He is still stuck on wondering why the real world doesn't match his preferred model.
He is stuck wondering how it is possible TX and FL basically did the exact opposite of CA and yet all 3 are in roughly the same spot.
He is stuck wondering why vaccinated people DON'T want to wear masks anymore.
He is stuck wondering why people want to send their kids back to school and he doesn't.
He is stuck wondering why people want to go out and do things.
The war is over. People have moved on and are dealing with the real world. What is that? We will be living with Covid for the forseable future. Get vaccinated if you want and/or in a high risk group. People will be increasing hanging out and doing what they did pre-covid despite what the Karens of this world want.
We are not going to put up with masks, social distancing, etc for years on end. Or even that much longer.
I'm now 2 weeks out from full vaccination. We just had our first in person D&D party, indoors, no masks for the first time since this started. Everyone there was fully vaccinated and/or had COVID in the last 90 days. Only 2 of our group hadn't hit the magical week so were stuck remote. Those of us in person drinking had much more fun.
Do I dare ask what a D&D party is?
A party where you get together and play Dungeons and Dragons, that role playing game that was popular in the 80s and recently had a Renaissance.