Scott m Shurson
SILVER ELITE
My God. You’re still crying about Trump?
Bad News Thread
- Thread starter kickingandscreaming
- Start date
My God. You’re still crying about Trump?
Since we're all posting videos, here's one from a teen definitely worth your time. The pro-lockdowners have a lot to answer for.....
www.huffingtonpost.ca
Teen’s Short Film Hauntingly Captures How A Pandemic Loop Feels
Filmmaker Sarah Polley called it the "best film I've seen in a long time."
Crushing.....Since we're all posting videos, here's one from a teen definitely worth your time. The pro-lockdowners have a lot to answer for.....
Teen’s Short Film Hauntingly Captures How A Pandemic Loop Feels
Filmmaker Sarah Polley called it the "best film I've seen in a long time."
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
Have these guys (double maskers) ever seen the neighborhoods where the virus is currently most prevalent? How is one mask and distancing going in these neighborhoods? They are primarily preaching to folks who don't really go outside unless they have to when there isn't a pandemic and people who are hypersensitive to any "possible" threat and are freaking out accordingly (many are both). How out of touch can they possibly be?After Fauci bouncing back and forth for several days, we've reached peak stupidity and the CDC is studying recommending double masks. I tell you right now, if they try to mandate it I won't do it. Here's my red line. They don't even have solid proof the single masks in real world conditions can do anything. And remember, they are talking about this going on for years folks (for reasons previously discussed: kids not fully vaccinated until 2022, the J&J and other non-mRNA vaccine being partially effective, virus variants mutating away from the vaccines). Nope.
Fauci says CDC may recommend double-masking
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention may soon recommend all Americans wear two masks to enhance their protection against coronavirus, Dr. Anthony Fauci said Tuesday. “It makes commo…nypost.com
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
Just another EOTL "variant"
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
China "Originant"?
Looks like the Biden admin is having some trouble keeping everyone on the same page and on message. He doesn't appear to be having much more luck with his health experts than Trump.
Desert Hound
DA
Yeah...let us not test them to show how bad not being in school is. If we test, more parents might realize just how bad the unions have been in preventing kids going back to school. It would make the unions look bad, and we cannot have that right?
End-of-year testing, required by the federal government, should be waived for a second year to avoid “perpetuating the vast inequities in our state,” argues the California Teachers Association.
www.joannejacobs.com
This made me almost choke on my toast when I read it.
CTA, educators say standardized tests would be detrimental to students, of little use to schools.
To be fair, the CTA doesn't like standardized tests anyway. See their image below...ESPECIALLY during a pandemic.
www.cta.org
End-of-year testing, required by the federal government, should be waived for a second year to avoid “perpetuating the vast inequities in our state,” argues the California Teachers Association.
Darren Miller, who blogs at Right on the Left Coast, is a California teacher who thinks the CTA doesn’t want to know how badly students are doing due to lockdowns. “Without testing, we won’t know which students need which additional help after not having been in school a year,” he writes. “Without testing, even the best students won’t know how far behind they are.”
How badly are students doing? — Joanne Jacobs
www.joannejacobs.com
This made me almost choke on my toast when I read it.
CTA, educators say standardized tests would be detrimental to students, of little use to schools.
To be fair, the CTA doesn't like standardized tests anyway. See their image below...ESPECIALLY during a pandemic.
A Call to Waive 2021 Assessments
www.cta.org
Trump and his team did a better job than Europe (but not the UK or Israel).......
www.nytimes.com
Opinion | Europe’s Vaccine Rollout Has Descended Into Chaos (Published 2021)
It should have been a success. What went wrong?
Desert Hound
DA
Funny how that works.Trump and his team did a better job than Europe (but not the UK or Israel).......
Opinion | Europe’s Vaccine Rollout Has Descended Into Chaos (Published 2021)
It should have been a success. What went wrong?
Desert Hound
DA
“The country could afford the mass purchases thanks to decades of economic growth, grounded in high-technology, medical research, water conservation, sophisticated weapons development, cybersecurity and more. The growth was spurred by market-oriented public policies, adopted after years of sluggish European-style socialism under Labor governments.”Trump and his team did a better job than Europe (but not the UK or Israel).......
Opinion | Europe’s Vaccine Rollout Has Descended Into Chaos (Published 2021)
It should have been a success. What went wrong?
"What have we learned so far? The earliest data covers the whole population, not subgroups, but it is very encouraging. It shows that the vaccine is actually more effective than Pfizer reported from its Phase 3 trials. By Jan. 30, six weeks after Israel began inoculations, more than 1.7 million Israelis had received two doses of the Pfizer vaccine. Another 1.3 million had received their first dose. Of those who received the full inoculation, only around 300 later showed any significant COVID symptoms (less than ½ of 1%). Only 16 needed hospital care, less than 0.002%. A single dose seems to provide about half the necessary protection."
Why Israel Leads the World in Vaccinating Its Population
Its fast start is producing lessons and benefits for other countries
www.discoursemagazine.com
Biden's team is stepping on themselves trying to corral their health experts....same as Trump.
Further stepping on their message....everyone needs to be vaccinated in order for us to get back to normal, but social distancing and masks are necessary even after vaccination....why then would anyone under 30 want to get a vaccine (particularly since the non-mRNA vaccines are not 100% efficient and you would likely get it anyways)? Not a great sales pitch.
Desert Hound
DA
The person at the CDC was speaking the truth. No issue with teachers going back to school.
The problem is politically for Biden is that many of the unions don't want to go back yet.
Desert Hound
DA
We have seen a variety of "top" people peddle this for some time. Expect them to try it and in many cases to succeed.
Why would we need to social distance and wear masks if we have a vaccine out?
We don't play this safety theater with other diseases floating around....flu for instance. A large percentage gets the vaccine every year, but we know despite that 30-90k will still die in the US in any given year. We don't shut down this or that.
But these yahoo's are going to try for a totally different standard with covid. No thanks.
Glitterhater
SILVER ELITE
My kid has been in school since... september? Is varying degrees of hybrid. Have their been cases? Sure. There have been instances where neighboring schools had to rewind back to virtual due to an outbreak among trachers.
But, IMO it hasn't been anything earth shattering. I am completely fine with them being on campus, no worries here. At some point they should look to other districts for guidance if they are struggling- real life examples of it working.
I cannot imagine my oldest STILL being totally virtual- how awful.
But, IMO it hasn't been anything earth shattering. I am completely fine with them being on campus, no worries here. At some point they should look to other districts for guidance if they are struggling- real life examples of it working.
I cannot imagine my oldest STILL being totally virtual- how awful.
There are only two reasons that people don't want kids back in school full-time, 1) unfounded fear, or 2) prisoner of a far left narrative.
Errr....this really looks really bad. @dad4 I need your help interpreting the number here, but it looks like we are in a race between vaccination and a real super bad spring wave. If I'm interpreting the numbers correctly, to suppress the new variant would require a superstrict lockdown (far stricter than the stupid Newsom December lockdowns) for which there is now virtually no political will left to do. The best thing that could happen is the J&J and AZ vaccines could get rolling quickly and we use those to vaccinated the 40s-60s and essential workers, but the FDA is doing it's FDA thing and is making them jump through hoops to submit. @dad4 would be interested in what you think.....
You need to get some good data on virus transmissibility, vaccine effectiveness, and cross immunity by variant. I don’t have all that, but I can give you an idea of my logic:
The regular variant kicked our ass. R0 was only 3, but we still had to infect 60% or so of the population in order to get over it.
That puts our NPI as 1/6 effective. It takes R=3 and drops it to R=2.5. Multiply by 5/6.
b.117 has a higher R. maybe R0=5. Add in our lame attempts at NPI, and you get R = 25/6.
So b.117 wants to run until it gets 1-(6/25) of us. 76%
Fortunately, the vaccine mostly works, and that may mean that normal immunity mostly works. if both work 90% of the time,
you get 54% have working natural immunity and another 9% have vaccine immunity. So, 63% have a working immunity. The virus infects another 13%. So, about 1/4 the size of our winter surge. Not fun.
Also preventable. Many local areas manage NPI that is better than 5/6. LA might be around 1/2. They took a variant with R0=5 and made it look like R=2.5
If the nation can do as well as LA did, b.117 would not spread. We’d be starting at 63%, but we’d only need 60. Unless you significantly change behavior, I don’t think b117 will hit LA very hard at all. The rest of us are in trouble.
When you run the same computation on the SA variant, it looks much worse. Might be delayed because it will first hit during summer. Might not. (need a good way to represent weather.). Either way you start with much lower immunity, because the vaccine and traditional immunity are both less effective. You’re still driving towards 75% or 76%, but you have further to go because you start much lower. So, 30% of us get it if it can beat the weather, 25% if it has to wait for fall. twice as bad as b.117.
Or, so says a math guy with no epidemiology training.
Useful. Much thanks in understanding this. We know the vaccines (even the J&J and AZ which are in the 60%-70% overall efficiency for the older variants) still help out with serious illness and death. The thinking is the thing is so devastating because of the autoimmune response of our bodies (not necessarily because of the virus itself) because it has never seen something like this. That's why the thinking on t-cells for cross-rona viruses is that they might help (because the body recognizes and says "oh I haven't seen this before but I've seen something close, so let's try this which worked before"). So the societal question is how much are we prepared to accept the possibility of illnesses overall in light of the death rate and serious illness rate (including long COVID) dropping but not to zero.
In any case, I think the thing you and I are both clued into but not everyone in these forums, the general public, the media, and even the health care experts are clued into is that the current issue continues well into 2022 with more minor surges to come in spring (and wow....summer/fall depending on the seasonal impacts) and then again possibly into next winter if the thing continues to mutate at the rate it has been. The question then is do we accept folks are vaccinated and that's the best we can do and open up, or do we continue to run scared.
What variable are you currently using for asymptomatic or non-test confirmed COVID cases? At one point assumptions ranged up to 10x, but I’m not sure what the current assumption should be.
In September models were using 9x, but I wonder where it is at now?
Substantial underestimation of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the United States - Nature Communications
Estimating the extent of SARS-CoV-2 infection in a population is challenging due to the limitations of testing. Here, the authors estimate that the true number of infections in the United States in mid-April was up to 20 times higher than the number of confirmed cases.
www.nature.com