Bad News Thread
- Thread starter kickingandscreaming
- Start date
Glitterhater
SILVER ELITE
I am definitely not the panic type but I have to say the stories of the long haulers have been a bit frightening. Mainly because this virus is just so damn weird!
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
Yeah, Team Panic is exacerbating the irrationality.
We are over 10 months invested in attempts to mitigate the effects of the virus. The best we can come up with in SC County right now is a new mandate that children have to were masks for the duration of the socially distanced soccer training. Well, that is if they are training with an official team. If you are out at the local park, no such social distancing or mask mandate has been enforced. Oh, and you can't train on city fields in Mountain View either and probably many other facilities in the county as well since at least 3 big clubs are on one of the only private facilities in the county. How does cramming all these clubs into one facility help stop the spread of the virus? Please correct me if any of what I write here is incorrect, but I believe we have a very good idea of the areas (zip codes) where the virus is spreading most in the county. So, what are the leaders doing about it? Is there a mass education effort going on to help these areas? Do we need to be handing out masks in these communities? I can't imagine we couldn't find an abundance of well-educated volunteers in the county. Google, Facebook, etc. would likely welcome the good publicity of donating masks and/or employee time to help in the cause. As far as I can tell, none of this is happening. I am seeing is a bit of crying on camera. Does that count as leadership?
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
Not if this guy is correct. Even if he's incorrect, it gives plenty of time for "Team Fear" to extend restrictions (6-14 weeks from now goes until May 14). It could be "orange" in March, but based on history, those in power in CA are likely to determine that we have to continue all restrictions until they perceive this threat is zero. If CA really does allow what they say they will in March if we get to orange, it will mark a significant change in their philosophy regarding the virus. Anyone think we will get a new model in the next few weeks based on the spread of the variants, or will Newsome be too busy fighting for his political life?
***
An epidemiologist who advised President Joe Biden’s transition on the Covid-19 crisis warned on Sunday of a looming wave of infections and said the U.S. should adjust its vaccination strategy in order to save lives.
“The fact is that the surge that is likely to occur with this new variant from England is going to happen in the next six to 14 weeks. And, if we see that happen, which my 45 years in the trenches tell me we will, we are going to see something like we have not seen yet in this country,” Osterholm said.
Former Biden Covid advisor says U.S. should prioritize first vaccine doses ahead of potential surge
Dr. Michael Osterholm says the U.S. should prioritize first doses of Covid vaccine ahead of a potential surge linked to overseas variants.
www.cnbc.com
My father, an md, has gone over the deep end. He apparently knows this guy and thinks he’s 100% spot on. Thinks the government is lying about the new variants so as to prevent panic and the rich from bribing up vaccines. Thinks we are in for Armageddon and is advising us to stack up on tp again and prepare for hard lock up for the rest of the year. I point out to him the data out of the Uk so far doesn’t support this and the experts are in an irrational panic and trying to scare folks into vaccines since they can’t force it. He says fauci wouldn’t do that.Not if this guy is correct. Even if he's incorrect, it gives plenty of time for "Team Fear" to extend restrictions (6-14 weeks from now goes until May 14). It could be "orange" in March, but based on history, those in power in CA are likely to determine that we have to continue all restrictions until they perceive this threat is zero. If CA really does allow what they say they will in March if we get to orange, it will mark a significant change in their philosophy regarding the virus. Anyone think we will get a new model in the next few weeks based on the spread of the variants, or will Newsome be too busy fighting for his political life?
***
An epidemiologist who advised President Joe Biden’s transition on the Covid-19 crisis warned on Sunday of a looming wave of infections and said the U.S. should adjust its vaccination strategy in order to save lives.
“The fact is that the surge that is likely to occur with this new variant from England is going to happen in the next six to 14 weeks. And, if we see that happen, which my 45 years in the trenches tell me we will, we are going to see something like we have not seen yet in this country,” Osterholm said.
Former Biden Covid advisor says U.S. should prioritize first vaccine doses ahead of potential surge
Dr. Michael Osterholm says the U.S. should prioritize first doses of Covid vaccine ahead of a potential surge linked to overseas variants.
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
Calm and kindness is always good advice, Crush!
Not if this guy is correct. Even if he's incorrect, it gives plenty of time for "Team Fear" to extend restrictions (6-14 weeks from now goes until May 14). It could be "orange" in March, but based on history, those in power in CA are likely to determine that we have to continue all restrictions until they perceive this threat is zero. If CA really does allow what they say they will in March if we get to orange, it will mark a significant change in their philosophy regarding the virus. Anyone think we will get a new model in the next few weeks based on the spread of the variants, or will Newsome be too busy fighting for his political life?
***
An epidemiologist who advised President Joe Biden’s transition on the Covid-19 crisis warned on Sunday of a looming wave of infections and said the U.S. should adjust its vaccination strategy in order to save lives.
“The fact is that the surge that is likely to occur with this new variant from England is going to happen in the next six to 14 weeks. And, if we see that happen, which my 45 years in the trenches tell me we will, we are going to see something like we have not seen yet in this country,” Osterholm said.
Former Biden Covid advisor says U.S. should prioritize first vaccine doses ahead of potential surge
Dr. Michael Osterholm says the U.S. should prioritize first doses of Covid vaccine ahead of a potential surge linked to overseas variants.
I'm really beginning to think that the question of how quickly things return to normal is not really a data question, or even a political question, but how quickly these people can be calmed down from their irrational panic. The fact that some (like this guy or my father) are educated thoughtful MDs should give us pause. But it's a psychological question. It's also complicated by the fact that the level of panic differs over the red/blue divide, though I'm sure there are R hypochondriacs out there....anyone in the house have insight?
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
Six weeks out - I'm guessing by then about 55-60% seroprevalence - 40-45% had it or were vaccinated 15%. That has to be way over the seroprevalence in the UK when it took off. Also, our most at risk will likely be vaccinated or at least had the opportunity to be vaccinated by then. I just don't see where we are going to "see something like we have not seen yet in this country". And, oh yeah, the UK was bad, but not worse than what we have seen, and again, at lower seroprevalence and not having the high-risk group vaccinated.
Well, from what I gathered from part of my father's reasoning, the new variants might be more infectious against even those who have had it before, but maybe not have gotten a full immunity (such as the asymptomatic carriers we've heard so much about). Further, he's worried that evolutionary pressure will begin to steer the variants away from vaccine coverage. He also thinks the govt is just lying about the more contagious, not more deadly part, to avoid a panic. Again none of this based in science. Just irrational panics of what ifs.
Not if this guy is correct. Even if he's incorrect, it gives plenty of time for "Team Fear" to extend restrictions (6-14 weeks from now goes until May 14). It could be "orange" in March, but based on history, those in power in CA are likely to determine that we have to continue all restrictions until they perceive this threat is zero. If CA really does allow what they say they will in March if we get to orange, it will mark a significant change in their philosophy regarding the virus. Anyone think we will get a new model in the next few weeks based on the spread of the variants, or will Newsome be too busy fighting for his political life?
***
An epidemiologist who advised President Joe Biden’s transition on the Covid-19 crisis warned on Sunday of a looming wave of infections and said the U.S. should adjust its vaccination strategy in order to save lives.
“The fact is that the surge that is likely to occur with this new variant from England is going to happen in the next six to 14 weeks. And, if we see that happen, which my 45 years in the trenches tell me we will, we are going to see something like we have not seen yet in this country,” Osterholm said.
Former Biden Covid advisor says U.S. should prioritize first vaccine doses ahead of potential surge
Dr. Michael Osterholm says the U.S. should prioritize first doses of Covid vaccine ahead of a potential surge linked to overseas variants.
He’s talking about the UK variant. It is around 70% more transmissible, and will be dominant in the US by around March. Nationally, that’s a problem. It kicks Rt up from 0.8 to 1.36. That’s the difference between dividing in half every 2 weeks, and doubling every 2 weeks.
Which is why he wants to focus on first shots. If 1/4 of people are immune, that 1.36 drops down to 1. No longer runaway growth.
For LA, it is different. LA already has a more transmissible variant. Maybe 1.5 times as bad. Which means not much changes when you introduce a UK variant that is 1.7 times as bad. The UK portion of infections might have Rt = 0.9 instead of 0.8. Not spreading.
The South Africa one worries me more. If the vaccines work less well, that may also mean that having recovered also works less well. But we have more time on that one.
Correct me if I'm wrong please, but then is the conclusion a 3rd wave is still very much a possibility....just that in places like Los Angeles (and presumably places like North Dakota) it won't be as bad because of the seroprevalence in those areas, but for places with a relatively lower seroprevalence (such as for example the Bay Area), they still might get a moderate third wave?
Remember that we vaccinate a lot of people who have had covid. If we are at 10% confirmed infected and 40% total infected, the only people who delay the vaccine are the 10% confirmed. The 30% who had it, but never knew, still get in line for vaccine.
It drops the seroprevalence number a smidge. Less so for early vaccinations, since the 75 year olds are more likely to know whether they have had it.
This belongs in the good news thread but for the fact that even with the second shot there is still a very low portion of people needing hospitalization. For people scared of long COVID or getting it at all, this won't help with the panic since they'll still be news stories.
www.theguardian.com
Israel Covid vaccine data shows extremely low rate of infections
Only 0.04% of people caught virus a week after second dose and 0.002% needed hospital treatment
www.theguardian.com
Dad4's numbers don't make it look good for youth sports and schools this spring <sigh>
Here's the line coming out on kids and the new variant. So the new variants don't target kids more than olders. It still affects them less and they still think its less contagious for them. But since it's more contagious for everyone, the question with kids (particularly since again 16 year olds are not looking like they'll get vaccinated until summer, 12-16 in the fall, and under 12 not until as late as 2022...with some wiggle room for 15 and 10-11 year olds) is what impact therefore on schools and youth sports....does it raise the threshold (notwithstanding kids being affected less than adults) from schools/youth sports are not a danger to community to spread to yeah it is. Given the panic still prevalent on team panic, that's the line we will be increasingly hearing.....
www.nature.com
Here's the line coming out on kids and the new variant. So the new variants don't target kids more than olders. It still affects them less and they still think its less contagious for them. But since it's more contagious for everyone, the question with kids (particularly since again 16 year olds are not looking like they'll get vaccinated until summer, 12-16 in the fall, and under 12 not until as late as 2022...with some wiggle room for 15 and 10-11 year olds) is what impact therefore on schools and youth sports....does it raise the threshold (notwithstanding kids being affected less than adults) from schools/youth sports are not a danger to community to spread to yeah it is. Given the panic still prevalent on team panic, that's the line we will be increasingly hearing.....
What new COVID variants mean for schools is not yet clear
Children are no more susceptible to these lineages than adults are — and closing schools on the basis of incomplete information could have repercussions.
www.nature.com
Anywhere with Rt > 0.6, and the normal variant could be in trouble. That is most of the country. At least it hits in spring, when some places start to head back outside.
LA and ND are different. LA already has a bad variant, so the UK one is isn’t much worse. ND has the normal variant. For them, the UK one is worse. You could still see a spike among 30%-50% or so of people in ND who have not yet had it.
Of course, ND already saw a spike among 50%-70% of their population, so it won’t be “unlike anything they have ever seen”.
"unlike anything they have ever seen"
well, for one thing, people should worry if you and I are in agreement. Don't see much of anything to dispute here. I've always had a hunch we'd see a mild-moderate spring wave, though this is the first time I've seen the reasoning laid out.
I agree it won't be "unlike anything they have ever seen", though. There just isn't any evidence of a huge new round of deaths in the UK, particularly in young people, and by then the most vulnerable among us will have hopefully gotten at least their first jab which will bring the death rate way down. The question then is what do we do to break the panic. There will still be news stories of the 40-50 year olds cut down in the prime of life, still fears about long COVID.
If you break the panic too well, people start hosting dinner parties again. In that case, throw my analysis out the window. You’ll get a spring surge just from the behavior changes.
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
I feel like extreme, difficult to support, pronouncements such as these are not far from yelling "Fire!" in a theatre. Any thoughts as to what happens to this guy if things never get "unlike anything they have ever seen"? He also said something about a "Category 5 ... He will lose all credibility in my eyes, but I have little doubt others will continue to quote his "expert" opinion when it suits their ends. I'll wait 6-14 weeks before I decide whether his opinion gets any respect from me going forward. If he's correct, I'll be impressed.
The issue with the panic, though, is it's not directed at those dinner parties. It's directed at the easy targets like the kids (which is why we have talk about LAUSD being hybrid only next year and youth sports being uniquely dangerous) and outdoor dining (which in turn encourages those dinner parties). At a certain point we have to say f' it...the most vulnerable are vaccinated or have been offered it, but open it back up.....Florida's done it so can we.