Bad News Thread
- Thread starter kickingandscreaming
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kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
Isn't "control through panic" an oxymoron?
Look above. It’s 2021 and Grace is still preaching against masks. We have several peer reviewed studies showing effectiveness, and she’s quoting some GP in rural Oregon who doesn’t realize he is outside his field.
If you’re going to be stupid about it and ignore simple advice like masks, then maybe a bit more respect for the virus would be appropriate.
Desert Hound
DA
Don't worry LAUSD is working on the important things. Reason #...oh f*** it, why my kids are not in public school.
I'm not preaching against masks. I'm preaching that we should stop lying about the effectiveness. Then we don't have people doing stupid things like showing up to their grandparents house at Christmas for 4 hours and claiming it's o.k. because everyone is wearing masks.
I just watched "The Big Short" again....the entire story is a bunch of small timers telling the big boys they got it wrong....great movie about the limitations of the expert class. Guy in rural Oregon is taking precautions when he sees COVID patients....he's just realistic about what a cloth mask can do.
LAUSD is deep into plans which will have next year hybrid only until kids can get vaccinated.
My son would attest to the truth of this story. We were stopped at a light yesterday close to Sunset and Highland were the Academy Award theatre is. We both look at the pickup truck next to us and there is this guy in a full blown gas mask, face shield, bright yellow kitchen gloves next to us. We both look over and our eyes pop up. Unless the guy was transporting COVID soiled masks or blankets in the cab of his truck, not sure what he was doing.
Then why post the link? That link is not an argument against visiting grandma. (which would be a responsible post.)
That link is a straight up argument against purchasing and wearing cloth and surgical masks.
And not even a good argument at that.
He’s just a GP. He is certainly not qualified to evaluate epidemiology research. Nor is he up to date. The text is still talking about protecting the wearer, instead of reducing outbound transmission.
It’s just one more half-informed rant from someone who doesn’t know what they are talking about. Same as the right wing nutters used to post here back in April. Care to follow it up with a picture of a chain link fence?
Because he even pokes the maskers with this argument you are making now: "Why are we poking this tiger, this mask issue now?" "Wearing a mask is easy to do. Can't you just shut up and wear the damn mask?"
And this is the EXACT same thing that happened in 2008 with all the experts saying the housing market could never crash. They weren't complete non-credential experts (this guy is an MD), just a bunch of outsiders telling the big boy establishment they were wrong. And like in 2008, they were responded to by saying they were wrong, they weren't credentialed, they were nutters. The anti-lockdowners got it right...the establishmentarian experts got it wrong.
Now, once we've established the current policy is wrong it's a separate question of what we do about it.
If this holds up it's NEVER going to go away....we will have to learn to live with it, hopefully with a death rate on par or lower than the flu.....if it eventually mutates away from the vaccine (which there is some scant evidence that it is beginning to do), EVERYONE will eventually get it but hopefully with not a huge death rate as our bodies get an initial exposure from the virus or vaccines....
nypost.com
COVID-19 reinfection is ‘common’ among young people, study finds
A new study of young people found that COVID-19 reinfection was “common” among those who had the virus. The study, published Friday in the preprint server MedRxiv, examined 3,249 young, healthy mos…
nypost.com
Desert Hound
DA
Why would we assume it goes away.If this holds up it's NEVER going to go away....we will have to learn to live with it, hopefully with a death rate on par or lower than the flu.....if it eventually mutates away from the vaccine (which there is some scant evidence that it is beginning to do), EVERYONE will eventually get it but hopefully with not a huge death rate as our bodies get an initial exposure from the virus or vaccines....
COVID-19 reinfection is ‘common’ among young people, study finds
A new study of young people found that COVID-19 reinfection was “common” among those who had the virus. The study, published Friday in the preprint server MedRxiv, examined 3,249 young, healthy mos…
It seems very flu like. The main difference being that up until now we haven't had a vaccine.
It seems much more likely this is a yearly thing with different strains like the flu vs let's say polio which for all intents and purposes went away with that vaccine
If the article is correct, I think you are right. People are still going to die from the thing....particularly older people if the virus mutates away from the vaccine and they can't get the vaccine right every year. It won't be as high as the death rate from this novel new virus our bodies haven't really seen (except for some cross reactions to other coronaviruses, which is probably why the death rates aren't in the 2-3% level like they thought it would be initially). It will be closer (maybe even less) than the flu. We gonna do the tier thing every winter? Kids in school in masks forever?
So, your new argument is that the 2008 housing market proves that masks do not work?
Right. Got it.
Along those lines, I also understand that the Treaty of Versailles proves that you cannot get mercury poisoning from seafood.
Small criticisms....a. hospitalizations are a lagging indicator, b. the graphs do show small bumps in some states 1-2 weeks after the holiday, but basically correct. Gatherings were not enough in these states to create "surge upon surge" and the big driver of this is seasonality.
No my argument is the expert-class if full of themselves and for (various yet to be explained factors) will have a tendency to get these type of analysis wrong which slightly credentialed outsiders with a tendency to bet "don't pass" have an easier time spotting.
Soccer Bum 06
SILVER
Good questions. Looks like political ideology and local officials will drive what continues years after the vaccines are widely distributed. If my county/community decides it is never going to allow normality to return to school, sports and life, my family will have to relocate to a community that will. I will not accept these mandates or measures forever and will move my family to a place that believes in common sense, science and data to make informed public health guidelines. Looks like Southern California might not be the place for my family any longer and that is sad because I could never imagine a circumstance until now that would make me want to leave. Hope the housing market doesn’t crash before I decide if I need to sell my home and a uHaul is only affordable to our elitist class of people l.
That was exactly my point.
Those so called experts telling us to stop eating shark fin soup while pregnant don't know what they're talking about.
They just want to make us all panic because they are full of themselves coocoo environmentalists. Those lab tests about methylmercury don't mean anything about the real world.
How is my logic any worse than yours?
There’s two parts of this application. The first is the data. That’s what the math hats are good at. The next part is the conclusions. Here for a variety of reasons (when it comes to economics, real estate, health policy, and education) they fail. It goes back to the discussion we had about why they don’t let math guys like you have final say in running comps. Or why in “Margin Call” they put the idiot that mixes his metaphors in charge of the rocket scientist. They aren’t very good at it for a variety of reasons. And when the check on them is panicky politicians, it’s a disaster. The person reviewing the data might very well decide shark fin soup for pregnant women not so good...they could also decide no shark fin soup for anyone....or we need more sharks(which will make the surfers unhappy). Someone at the table needs to be there to ask...hey how about the surfers?
Same explanation as before: you don’t get a Christmas spike if you manage to infect most of your population before the holidays.
What you get is a slowing of the decline. Which is evident in the fact that your graph is concave down from 12/15 to 1/15. A decline would normally be concave up: exponential decay.
Take a look at the rest of the country if you want to see the holiday bump more clearly.
California as a whole peaks dec 17-20 well before Christmas. There is a second peak a little after new year. The second peak is not as high as the first. I agree there is a holiday bump (and in the cases you cite it slowed the decline). It wasn’t Armageddon on Armageddon. It definitely impacted the curve. It did not radically alter it.