Good thread on why we are f'ed (including schools and sports) as long as substantial portions of the population (whether by refusal, ineligibility, or condition) remain unvaccinated. For all practical purposes, the emergency will be over by March due to vaccination of at risk population and declining numbers due to seasonality (though based on how Spain has acted, I think we might still get a 3rd wave sometime in March if we are unlucky). But as long as Newsom continues his current course, we are looking at issues in California into 2020 (unless the population finally says "enough")
Bad News Thread
- Thread starter kickingandscreaming
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kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
Wow. On a related note, it looks like COVID not only took down Trump, it may take down Cuomo and Newsome. I guess the Rona doesn't really care about political affiliation. I am at least hoping the next group of elected leaders doesn't pander to the extremes and/or let the power go to their heads like these guys.
Hey Grace, please get the mess cleaned up in CA by late summer. Like Brumby, I would prefer to return.
On the bright side, these restrictions will be picked apart as things improve and our fearless leaders will spend countless cycles coming up with yet another new model that even they don't understand. If we don't get that 3rd wave in March, I give this model until April until it is "revised" or enforced with the same enthusiasm as our immigration rules. So much virtue signaling, so little leadership.
My one concern is that we may have missed the best vaccine strategy for bringing cases and deaths down. In SC county, it appears there are a few zip codes where R >> 1 and many where it is less than 1. If that is actually the case, we should have been focusing on getting people in those zip codes vaccinated first - or at least on a Level 1 tier and get the vaccines going in those areas. It will also likely address the inequity we are seeing in terms of who is getting the vaccine. To me, that's important but secondary to doing what is optimal to stop the virus.
Biden admin is vaccinating prisoners at Gitmo while at the same time seniors (including vets), teachers and police struggling to get vaccinated especially in places like California. Now I get it’s probably some boneheaded govt decision where they allocated a portion to the military and the military made a decision to vaccinate high risk places like prisons and no one thought hey maybe it looks bad if we vaccinated the 9/11 masterminds first. I don’t hold Biden anymore to account for this than I do trump and the masks debacle. But still the optics are terrible
whats worse is the uk is vaccinating the equivalent of 2.5 m per day if you compare population while we’ve inched up the target to 1.5m after the public and even partisan press loudly complained. I blame trump for not being more serious about the initial problem and not taking all hands on deck back last January. Similarly Biden’s had months now on the vaccine rollout and his strategy seems to be lets do trumps but better.
whats worse is the uk is vaccinating the equivalent of 2.5 m per day if you compare population while we’ve inched up the target to 1.5m after the public and even partisan press loudly complained. I blame trump for not being more serious about the initial problem and not taking all hands on deck back last January. Similarly Biden’s had months now on the vaccine rollout and his strategy seems to be lets do trumps but better.
Another reason why things might not improve....
a. the egg heads are thinking the new variants are more contagious for children. Children won't be fully vaccinated til 2022 at the earliest and it will be hard to mandate it before then. If true (a huge if since it's unclear how much of this is fear mongering and how much of it is a real concern), California and other blue state schools will (barring a major political upheavel) not return to normal until late 2022-early 2023 at the earliest.
b. more fear mongering re youth sports but it seems that's where some of them are headed so (barring a major political upheavel) possibly those are disrupted until summer 2022.
c. interestingly he disagrees with Fauci and the double masks.
a. the egg heads are thinking the new variants are more contagious for children. Children won't be fully vaccinated til 2022 at the earliest and it will be hard to mandate it before then. If true (a huge if since it's unclear how much of this is fear mongering and how much of it is a real concern), California and other blue state schools will (barring a major political upheavel) not return to normal until late 2022-early 2023 at the earliest.
b. more fear mongering re youth sports but it seems that's where some of them are headed so (barring a major political upheavel) possibly those are disrupted until summer 2022.
c. interestingly he disagrees with Fauci and the double masks.
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
Colorado is blue and it's nothing like CA right now in terms of restrictions - some indoor dining, never stopped outdoor dining, no significant restrictions on organized outdoor sporting activities (not that they really enforce it other than administratively in CA). And yet, CO is outperforming CA by a long shot. As dad4 says, it may well be due to population density differences, but if that's true, it implies the outdoor restrictions are useless. Let's face it. CA is "special".
Every time I hear the double mask thing I am reminded how the elites are out of touch with the masses. Sure, they'll get some support from the media, but it's just not going to fly unless things take an unexpected turn for the worse. If things keep improving, it's going to get harder to enforce the existing requirements.
Ive always considered Colorado (like New Mexico and New Hampshire) a light blue state...blue politics thanks to Denver but still with a western heart. If freedonia and the peoples republic of equity ever divorce Colorado New Mexico and Arizona will all have a hard time deciding which to join. New Hampshire Vermont and Maine have a similar dynamic. Bizarro world though is Virginia where you can go from blm bumper stickers in Arlington/Alexandria and find confederate flags by the time you hit the border with North Carolina....Virginia (along with southern Illinois and Northern California) would be ground zero of ugliness.
Still wrong on the importance of youth vaccination for covid.
My kids will get it when available, but the lack of an under 16 shot isn't a show stopper. A vaccinated adult population will still drive R below 1. That is enough
Heck, we are below 1 now. We just need to keep below 1 while the rest of us get vaccinated.
agree again that’s the factual reality. I think you and I both concur the emergency will for all practical purposes be over by March-April. My point is the experts in team panic (and the teachers unions) seem to want to use the lack of availability of a childhood vaccine to prolong restrictions. For example, lausd is already planning contingencies which include in person hybrid in the fall to limit the number of kids on campus. Also the California tier system is sensitive That a vaccine refusal rate of 1/4-1/3 will mean there will be periodic low level outbreaks in the fall and they can’t make it mandatory until the eu label removed
you are citing facts but as the lockdowns have shown politics isn’t necessarily concerned with facts. How quickly things return to normal is purely a political question which in turn depends on whether folks like my sons godmother or the in-laws stop panicking despite the lack of a kids vaccine. The article seems like an attempt to gin up panic which we are hearing about variants, variants being more deadly to kids, and sports being uniquely dangerous. my sons private school for example has been told and is prepping the parents already for face masks being mandatory into 2021-2022 school year. I can tell you also there are some that are concerned j&j only 65% effective and they don’t want it because it doesn’t guarantee they are safe. So the question is: when do those panicking now say enough and demand a return to normal?
with the caveat all bets are off if there’s a variant that mutates away from vaccines.
my sons godmother btw is the perfect rep for team panic (my younger brother and in-laws too). She and I were discussing the lausd plans (her daughter il is a mid level admin in special needs and esl planning) and vaccines Friday. Except for her daily walk (where she steps out of the way to avoid anyone in the streets), shlepping her mom around or going to the market/pharmacy she hasnt left the house since March. She’s in a full blown panic still even though she’s in her 40s, white, type o blood, no major health concerns except some early arthritis. She was in tears at the notion she might be forced into the j&j vaccine. I assured her it was safe and shown to reduce serious illness but she’s been so worked up (she kept saying fauci says) she worries about long term consequences of even mild illness and doesn’t want to take any risk whatsoever.
Panic over by April and masks until next June isn't so awful. Not sure if masks everywhere counts as back to normal, but I think that's where we are headed.
Still on track for orange in March.
Maybe Surf will be on for August. Maybe not. I'd trade it for a spring season at this point. Taking my normal in small doses.
Still on track for orange in March.
Maybe Surf will be on for August. Maybe not. I'd trade it for a spring season at this point. Taking my normal in small doses.
Here's another story. My father's an MD and my mother was a nurse practioner. We went up to their house to do our pharmacy/grocery run (boys do their grocery shopping while I pick up their scrip in the pharmacy). They've had first dose moderna. They've had trouble scheduling their second shot but it looks like they are going to get it on day 35. The boys were raking the leaves and I was enjoying a cocktail in the yard when he calls me over facetime to discuss something serious. He said I and my brothers need to prepare for them to be recluses from now on. He's very scared about the virus mutating away from the vaccines and ever getting sick because of it's serious consequences. My mouth hit the floor...my first question was did you discuss this with mom (she's a high e, while he's a mid level i). But nope, he's very serious because of all the talk about the new variants and despite being a doc and knowing the science, is scared out of his mind. Have initiated discussions with my siblings about staging an intervention. Part of his reasoning is if masks are necessary that means it's still not safe.
Then there's this gem......
www.latimes.com
New clinical trials raise fears the coronavirus is learning how to resist vaccines
Researchers once believed t would take months or even years for the virus to develop resistance to vaccines. The speedy evolution is largely a result of the virus' unchecked spread.
www.latimes.com
Glitterhater
SILVER ELITE
I am definitely not the panic type but I have to say the stories of the long haulers have been a bit frightening. Mainly because this virus is just so damn weird!
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
Yeah, Team Panic is exacerbating the irrationality.
We are over 10 months invested in attempts to mitigate the effects of the virus. The best we can come up with in SC County right now is a new mandate that children have to were masks for the duration of the socially distanced soccer training. Well, that is if they are training with an official team. If you are out at the local park, no such social distancing or mask mandate has been enforced. Oh, and you can't train on city fields in Mountain View either and probably many other facilities in the county as well since at least 3 big clubs are on one of the only private facilities in the county. How does cramming all these clubs into one facility help stop the spread of the virus? Please correct me if any of what I write here is incorrect, but I believe we have a very good idea of the areas (zip codes) where the virus is spreading most in the county. So, what are the leaders doing about it? Is there a mass education effort going on to help these areas? Do we need to be handing out masks in these communities? I can't imagine we couldn't find an abundance of well-educated volunteers in the county. Google, Facebook, etc. would likely welcome the good publicity of donating masks and/or employee time to help in the cause. As far as I can tell, none of this is happening. I am seeing is a bit of crying on camera. Does that count as leadership?
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
Not if this guy is correct. Even if he's incorrect, it gives plenty of time for "Team Fear" to extend restrictions (6-14 weeks from now goes until May 14). It could be "orange" in March, but based on history, those in power in CA are likely to determine that we have to continue all restrictions until they perceive this threat is zero. If CA really does allow what they say they will in March if we get to orange, it will mark a significant change in their philosophy regarding the virus. Anyone think we will get a new model in the next few weeks based on the spread of the variants, or will Newsome be too busy fighting for his political life?
***
An epidemiologist who advised President Joe Biden’s transition on the Covid-19 crisis warned on Sunday of a looming wave of infections and said the U.S. should adjust its vaccination strategy in order to save lives.
“The fact is that the surge that is likely to occur with this new variant from England is going to happen in the next six to 14 weeks. And, if we see that happen, which my 45 years in the trenches tell me we will, we are going to see something like we have not seen yet in this country,” Osterholm said.
Former Biden Covid advisor says U.S. should prioritize first vaccine doses ahead of potential surge
Dr. Michael Osterholm says the U.S. should prioritize first doses of Covid vaccine ahead of a potential surge linked to overseas variants.
www.cnbc.com
My father, an md, has gone over the deep end. He apparently knows this guy and thinks he’s 100% spot on. Thinks the government is lying about the new variants so as to prevent panic and the rich from bribing up vaccines. Thinks we are in for Armageddon and is advising us to stack up on tp again and prepare for hard lock up for the rest of the year. I point out to him the data out of the Uk so far doesn’t support this and the experts are in an irrational panic and trying to scare folks into vaccines since they can’t force it. He says fauci wouldn’t do that.Not if this guy is correct. Even if he's incorrect, it gives plenty of time for "Team Fear" to extend restrictions (6-14 weeks from now goes until May 14). It could be "orange" in March, but based on history, those in power in CA are likely to determine that we have to continue all restrictions until they perceive this threat is zero. If CA really does allow what they say they will in March if we get to orange, it will mark a significant change in their philosophy regarding the virus. Anyone think we will get a new model in the next few weeks based on the spread of the variants, or will Newsome be too busy fighting for his political life?
***
An epidemiologist who advised President Joe Biden’s transition on the Covid-19 crisis warned on Sunday of a looming wave of infections and said the U.S. should adjust its vaccination strategy in order to save lives.
“The fact is that the surge that is likely to occur with this new variant from England is going to happen in the next six to 14 weeks. And, if we see that happen, which my 45 years in the trenches tell me we will, we are going to see something like we have not seen yet in this country,” Osterholm said.
Former Biden Covid advisor says U.S. should prioritize first vaccine doses ahead of potential surge
Dr. Michael Osterholm says the U.S. should prioritize first doses of Covid vaccine ahead of a potential surge linked to overseas variants.
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
Calm and kindness is always good advice, Crush!
Not if this guy is correct. Even if he's incorrect, it gives plenty of time for "Team Fear" to extend restrictions (6-14 weeks from now goes until May 14). It could be "orange" in March, but based on history, those in power in CA are likely to determine that we have to continue all restrictions until they perceive this threat is zero. If CA really does allow what they say they will in March if we get to orange, it will mark a significant change in their philosophy regarding the virus. Anyone think we will get a new model in the next few weeks based on the spread of the variants, or will Newsome be too busy fighting for his political life?
***
An epidemiologist who advised President Joe Biden’s transition on the Covid-19 crisis warned on Sunday of a looming wave of infections and said the U.S. should adjust its vaccination strategy in order to save lives.
“The fact is that the surge that is likely to occur with this new variant from England is going to happen in the next six to 14 weeks. And, if we see that happen, which my 45 years in the trenches tell me we will, we are going to see something like we have not seen yet in this country,” Osterholm said.
Former Biden Covid advisor says U.S. should prioritize first vaccine doses ahead of potential surge
Dr. Michael Osterholm says the U.S. should prioritize first doses of Covid vaccine ahead of a potential surge linked to overseas variants.
I'm really beginning to think that the question of how quickly things return to normal is not really a data question, or even a political question, but how quickly these people can be calmed down from their irrational panic. The fact that some (like this guy or my father) are educated thoughtful MDs should give us pause. But it's a psychological question. It's also complicated by the fact that the level of panic differs over the red/blue divide, though I'm sure there are R hypochondriacs out there....anyone in the house have insight?
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
Six weeks out - I'm guessing by then about 55-60% seroprevalence - 40-45% had it or were vaccinated 15%. That has to be way over the seroprevalence in the UK when it took off. Also, our most at risk will likely be vaccinated or at least had the opportunity to be vaccinated by then. I just don't see where we are going to "see something like we have not seen yet in this country". And, oh yeah, the UK was bad, but not worse than what we have seen, and again, at lower seroprevalence and not having the high-risk group vaccinated.