Bad News Thread

crush said:
This just in, not from CNN: Leading Israeli Health Official: Vaccinated Account For 95% of Severe and 85-90% of New Covid Hospitalizations; Vaccine Effectiveness is “Really Fading”

This week Dr. Kobi Haviv, the medical director of Israel’s leading center for respiratory care, joined the country’s Channel 13 News to share an extremely concerning update regarding breakthrough cases among the vaccinated.
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Yes, and no. This was always going to happen the more vaxxed people you have just because the vaxxed have a bigger denominator. The more accurate percentage would be to compare the percent of vaxxed to the percent unvaxxed hospitalized/severe. That said, there is some truth to the idea that vaccine effectiveness is "really falling" at least as far as cases are concerned (deaths in Israel still on the floor). Incidentally, Israel has also had a mask mandate in place throughout these last several weeks. If the vaccine is failing to stop the transmission, so are the masks (at least this time around).

www.worldometers.info

Israel COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Israel Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.
www.worldometers.info www.worldometers.info

Incidentally there's the same issue in Hawaii. . One dose 75%, two doses 54% and a mask mandate with 98% compliance in place.

www.worldometers.info

Hawaii COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Hawaii COVID-19 Coronavirus update by county with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, current active cases, recoveries, historical data, trends, projections, and timeline.
www.worldometers.info www.worldometers.info
 
Grace T. said:
I thought it just involves prayer to the mask god. ^\_(;?)_/^ The funny thing is you don’t recognize your unflappable faith in masks is the same as his in natural immunity.
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The funny thing is you continuing your attempt to paint those who utilize masks as a tool to help protect themselves and others from possible infection as a religion with a “god” and that somehow those people must all have “unflappable faith” that the mask is 100% effective and will save their lives. Dad and many others have laid out the seat belt scenario multiple times yet you persist in your attempt to belittle such efforts to help being safe. You also seem to have some issue with religion as you use the construct of it to mock people’s beliefs. You worry too much about others way of life, but then again you claim to be a conservative right? You people are always sticking your nose in other people’s interests.
 
Grace T. said:
That’s hilarious because on top of being a liar and a bully, you’ve shown yourself to be a ghoul and a comedian.
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What’s he ever lied about? “Bully”? How’s that? Is it because he expects people to back their claims, show their work so to speak? t- party types do hate the idea of personal responsibility, when comes to them personally.
 
Hüsker Dü said:
The funny thing is you continuing your attempt to paint those who utilize masks as a tool to help protect themselves and others from possible infection as a religion with a “god” and that somehow those people must all have “unflappable faith” that the mask is 100% effective and will save their lives. Dad and many others have laid out the seat belt scenario multiple times yet you persist in your attempt to belittle such efforts to help being safe. You also seem to have some issue with religion as you use the construct of it to mock people’s beliefs. You worry too much about others way of life, but then again you claim to be a conservative right? You people are always sticking your nose in other people’s interests.
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Errr if dad 4 wants to wear a mask for the rest of his life I might roll my eyes at him but I’ll defend his right to. Where I have the issue is when you try to tell me I have to mask

And I wouldn’t have an issue with it if there were you know actual science behind it like rcts but so far we have: 1) some badly interpreted propaganda pieces such as by the cdc, 2) one study showing masks don’t protect you, 3) some mannequin observational devoid of real world experience and 4) the pre covid studies showing mixed results re respiratory viruses. Then you have the real world numbers that show even if masks did something at some point they are no longer doing very much and even Oster has admitted as much re cloth masks. Belief in something in the absence of proof (esp when real world experience contradicts the point) is faith, not science.

I myself believed masks might have helped a little…against the delta I don’t think especially cloth masks are helping at all. And like I said n95 masked friend caught it despite double vaxxed and ultra scared/careful.
 
Grace, Mr. Weirdo, Mr. Creeps and Chet the Cheater are one big Messy mess that ALL equal EOTL, or little devil boy. Stuck in pride. They only look left. Brainwashed!!!
 
Hüsker Dü said:
What’s he ever lied about? “Bully”? How’s that? Is it because he expects people to back their claims, show their work so to speak? t- party types do hate the idea of personal responsibility, when comes to them personally.
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“Nonsense”. “Coocoo” and “I’m a conservative” to name a handful.
 
Grace T. said:
“Nonsense”. “Coocoo” and “I’m a conservative” to name a handful.
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You are ultra sensitive now aren’t you? Those responses have you feeling the victim of a “bully”? Yet I don’t remember you ever criticizing the donald’s “style” of talking about those he disagreed with? I guess that’s how t-party, trump-conservatives roll . . . again with the no personal responsibility.
 
Bruddah IZ said:
So, one size fits all doesn't work.
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No. There is going to be some sort of distribution of risk throughout a population to an agent with a given IFR. The field of epidemiology is totally predicatetotal risk of the population, the total area under the curve. But there is still a distribution. Deliberate exposure to the agent is one such mechanism and has been practiced for centuries. In ancient China they learned to distinguish smallpox infections arising from Variola minor (IFR ~ 1%) and use pus from those infections to establish immunity against the more virulent Variola major (IFR ~ 30%). That's a uniform reduction in risk.
 
Hüsker Dü said:
You are ultra sensitive now aren’t you? Those responses have you feeling the victim of a “bully”? Yet I don’t remember you ever criticizing the donald’s “style” of talking about those he disagreed with? I guess that’s how t-party, trump-conservatives roll . . . again with the no personal responsibility.
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False....I don't do much by way of politics on these boards (politics bore me) but I've been a critic of the vocabulary Trump used and the crass style of his rhetoric made me want to barf. I did appreciate that, unlike the gentlemen Republicans, he was willing to get in the gutter and fight, but I disliked the way he did it. I think, at least so far, DeSantis does it so much better. The problem is that great unwashed masses (much as they like spectacles like mixed martial arts or wrestling) sometimes like things we elites find crass or vulgar so it remains to be seen if DeSantis can sell his brand to Trump Republicans. He's the only one with a shot right now to unite the libertarian, Cruz conservative and Trumpian Republican wings of the party, so we'll see if he can do it.
 
EvilGoalie 21 said:
No. There is going to be some sort of distribution of risk throughout a population to an agent with a given IFR. The field of epidemiology is totally predicatetotal risk of the population, the total area under the curve. But there is still a distribution. Deliberate exposure to the agent is one such mechanism and has been practiced for centuries. In ancient China they learned to distinguish smallpox infections arising from Variola minor (IFR ~ 1%) and use pus from those infections to establish immunity against the more virulent Variola major (IFR ~ 30%). That's a uniform reduction in risk.
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Part of the problem with this logic is that it lends credence to the belief that some people may have been better off exposed to the Alpha than the Delta, and (assuming arguendo the data out of Israel is correct that vaccine immunity fades in 6 months but natural immunity is more robust) if you believe there will be more variants that move away from vaccine coverage, some people might be better getting the Delta now than yet to be determined variant later.
 
Prediction which I admit has very weak support so far (mostly just data from Israel some of which has come under mostly justified criticism) but I’ve seen enough of the pattern so far that I’m comfortable extrapolating out: in the coming weeks it will be shown the mRNA vaccines are far less efficient in stopping illness from the delta and subsequent variants than previously believed. It could be as low as 40% but I’m guessing maybe in the 60s. They’ll drag their feet on revealing it and double up on masks (which is also stupid because they’ll be less effective too and cloth masks were already never that great). If 3 double vaxxed people in an outdoor bbq can get it from a double vaxxed person where they’re all wearing masks except to eat, no way the number is in the 80s (total of 9 attendees….4 of whom had natural immunity and none of those 4 fell ill…1 only double vaxxed not ill). Vaccines still great at protecting against serious illness and death (again in 3/4 Ill it’s just the sniffles)
 
Grace T. said:
Part of the problem with this logic is that it lends credence to the belief that some people may have been better off exposed to the Alpha than the Delta, and (assuming arguendo the data out of Israel is correct that vaccine immunity fades in 6 months but natural immunity is more robust) if you believe there will be more variants that move away from vaccine coverage, some people might be better getting the Delta now than yet to be determined variant later.
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I got it back in Jan, 2020. Remember, I was visiting my pal up in Kirkland WA Grace? Yes, that place where the deaths and fear was first reported. Also, the flu was insane at the time Grace. My pal was sick before I came in Dec 2019. Dude was gone, lights out for 6 days. No contact. Finally he called and he could barely talk. He lost taste. No smell. He said pins were poking him. Anyway, I fly up there and back. Both flights all had the same bat flu. I come home and I was horrible for four days and my wife even was sick for half a day. She was way ahead of the curve. I quit eating meat at this time. My pal up in WA got the Jab twice and has been sick 3 times already and is feeling like shit today he told me. He only eats meat and protein. Now what? Booster jab? Dom got really sick. How you feeling bro these days and I mean that? Jab or no jab if you dont mind if I ask? General Flynn says if someone ask him if you got the jab and he wont answer, says none of your business. Hippa, not Jabba
 
Grace T. said:
Part of the problem with this logic is that it lends credence to the belief that some people may have been better off exposed to the Alpha than the Delta, and (assuming arguendo the data out of Israel is correct that vaccine immunity fades in 6 months but natural immunity is more robust) if you believe there will be more variants that move away from vaccine coverage, some people might be better getting the Delta now than yet to be determined variant later.
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No. It does no such thing. The principles of vaccination were established based on examples of broad mmune cross-reactivity. The extent of such cross-reactivity and the ability of a virus to evolve away from immune detection (either from natural infection or vaccination) in a pandemic will vary based on the biology and how much virus is out there. Sometimes you'll get lucky and sometimes you won't. And the kinetics of the sero-positivity stuff is kind of silly. What matters are the memory T cells that were established and what fraction of those express neutralizing antibodies. Direct analysis of this for one of the mRNA vaccines shows a higher fraction of neutralizing antibodies raised against the receptor-spike protein interface than with natural infection, probably due to conformational flexibility of the S protein produced by the vaccine. That's probably why it is working pretty well so far. But that's not going to be the stuff that comes through social media feeds.
 
EvilGoalie 21 said:
No. It does no such thing. The principles of vaccination were established based on examples of broad mmune cross-reactivity. The extent of such cross-reactivity and the ability of a virus to evolve away from immune detection (either from natural infection or vaccination) in a pandemic will vary based on the biology and how much virus is out there. Sometimes you'll get lucky and sometimes you won't. And the kinetics of the sero-positivity stuff is kind of silly. What matters are the memory T cells that were established and what fraction of those express neutralizing antibodies. Direct analysis of this for one of the mRNA vaccines shows a higher fraction of neutralizing antibodies raised against the receptor-spike protein interface than with natural infection, probably due to conformational flexibility of the S protein produced by the vaccine. That's probably why it is working pretty well so far. But that's not going to be the stuff that comes through social media feeds.
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We’ll I’ll just say for the sake of everyone I hope you are right and the data out of Israel is wrong. I have a bad feeling about this, however.
 
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