Bad News Thread

dad4 said:
You realize you posted that in response to an explanation of how we could have gotten more than half the way to a solution, right?

:rolleyes:

You know what the other parts are. We did some of them. Mass production and distribution of N95 masks. Fines for indoor gatherings. End non-essential airplane travel. Enforce restrictions on non-essential travel. Closing indoor gathering spaces like bars, restaurants, and casinos. Moving office work to zoom. Actually enforce the mask rules. Open outdoor spaces and encourage their use.

If all that adds up to at least a 40% reduction, I’m done. It was possible to reduce R below 1. We just didn’t do it.

Embarassingly, we still aren’t handling it well. Our current behavior and current vax rates would probably mean R>1 if it were winter.
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dad4 said:
Masks reduce the probability of transmission. That’s all. They do not come close to eliminating transmission.
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Speaking of Embarassing
 
dad4 said:
Curious if you have any way to measure the overall effectiveness of just moving outside. It’s around 95%, for those things which can move. But not everything is movable, so it is lower. Then you need to correct for fact that being outside doesn’t help with in-home transmission.
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It seems your saying being outside was better than masks...is that correct? I firmly believe that and believed that from the very beginning. It just made common sense. Masks may be effective, but are grossly overrated. Moving outside is very effective, but grossly underrated.

Part of the lockdown was the closing of beaches, parks, hiking trails and other open spaces. An expert from Scripps said that surfing was dangerous and that the sea breeze could carry the virus quite a distance. People were ticketed for paddle boarding and having a burrito on the rocks by the beach. Beaches reopened but you couldn't stand still you had to be moving and couldn't sit on the beach. I was threatened with a ticket for surf fishing. These restrictions were absurd and didn't even remotely pass the smell test. Credibility was shot from the beginning. Staying at home was the worst advice ever.

A lockdown will never work in the future. First time shame on you, 2nd time shame on me.
 
dad4 said:
You realize you posted that in response to an explanation of how we could have gotten more than half the way to a solution, right?

:rolleyes:

You know what the other parts are. We did some of them. Mass production and distribution of N95 masks. Fines for indoor gatherings. End non-essential airplane travel. Enforce restrictions on non-essential travel. Closing indoor gathering spaces like bars, restaurants, and casinos. Moving office work to zoom. Actually enforce the mask rules. Open outdoor spaces and encourage their use.

If all that adds up to at least a 40% reduction, I’m done. It was possible to reduce R below 1. We just didn’t do it.

Embarassingly, we still aren’t handling it well. Our current behavior and current vax rates would probably mean R>1 if it were winter.
Click to expand...
You’ve never been able to explain the dad plan for indoor gatherings.

I’m curious how you’d handle the airline industry

I’m double curious how you’d handle the non-essential travel stuff not to mention the border.

we did close the indoor dining and did the masks in la as well as office to zoom. It didn’t work. And mask compliance in Los Angeles public indoors was 98%. What does enforce masks mean...outdoors and how?

the govt closed outdoor spaces in California but was pretty good in reversing itself but also didn’t help the winter wave.

short of the travel ban and indoor gathering restriction this is Los Angeles’ plan
 
watfly said:
It seems your saying being outside was better than masks...is that correct? I firmly believe that and believed that from the very beginning. It just made common sense. Masks may be effective, but are grossly overrated. Moving outside is very effective, but grossly underrated.

Part of the lockdown was the closing of beaches, parks, hiking trails and other open spaces. An expert from Scripps said that surfing was dangerous and that the sea breeze could carry the virus quite a distance. People were ticketed for paddle boarding and having a burrito on the rocks by the beach. Beaches reopened but you couldn't stand still you had to be moving and couldn't sit on the beach. I was threatened with a ticket for surf fishing. These restrictions were absurd and didn't even remotely pass the smell test. Credibility was shot from the beginning. Staying at home was the worst advice ever.

A lockdown will never work in the future. First time shame on you, 2nd time shame on me.
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CDC is getting a lot of well deserved flak for their delay in encouraging outdoor opening.

But that is no reason to declare you know better. You didn't. Last March, you thought it was tiny and would stay small.

The restrictions, flawed as they were, probably saved hundreds of thousands of lives.

Fatality rates early in the epidemic were a lot worse than they are now. We just didn't have any good treatments. If the same number of infections had all happened in April/May last year, far more of those infections would have been fatal.
 
dad4 said:
CDC is getting a lot of well deserved flak for their delay in encouraging outdoor opening.

But that is no reason to declare you know better. You didn't. Last March, you thought it was tiny and would stay small.

The restrictions, flawed as they were, probably saved hundreds of thousands of lives.

Fatality rates early in the epidemic were a lot worse than they are now. We just didn't have any good treatments. If the same number of infections had all happened in April/May last year, far more of those infections would have been fatal.
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Well I didn't think the outbreak was tiny and would stay small. Back in February I even bought a months long supply of groceries knowing things would be shut down for month and told the planning committee for my kid's school that school would not return until the following school year, if then. I called the Los Angeles summer wave and warned of a more dangerous winter wave to come.

I also said the outdoor restrictions were pointless and I took the kids out to exercise every day in the park (without masks) during the initial lockdown (how kiddo finally learned to juggle) If anything I too overestimated the degree of transmissibility outdoors, but I always thought the shutdown of outdoor dining was a mistake and my friend (after a dialogue with me) published her article to move everything outside in the WP.

So, yes some of us did know better thank you very much.
 
Grace T. said:
Well I didn't think the outbreak was tiny and would stay small. Back in February I even bought a months long supply of groceries knowing things would be shut down for month and told the planning committee for my kid's school that school would not return until the following school year, if then. I called the Los Angeles summer wave and warned of a more dangerous winter wave to come.

I also said the outdoor restrictions were pointless and I took the kids out to exercise every day in the park (without masks) during the initial lockdown (how kiddo finally learned to juggle) If anything I too overestimated the degree of transmissibility outdoors, but I always thought the shutdown of outdoor dining was a mistake and my friend (after a dialogue with me) published her article to move everything outside in the WP.

So, yes some of us did know better thank you very much.
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1622037462780.png
 
dad4 said:
But that is no reason to declare you know better. You didn't. Last March, you thought it was tiny and would stay small.
Click to expand...
We didn't know in March since that was the absolute beginning. We had a very good idea of where the risk was by mid May. And yet the idiotic rules persisted.

You don't know we saved hundreds of thousands of lives either. You just hope based on your belief that is the fact.
 
"On Tuesday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released the latest data on breakthrough COVID-19 infections, which are infections among people who have been fully vaccinated against the disease. Yet again, the data suggests that the vaccines are highly effective against infection, as well as severe disease and death. The data breakdown also hints that vaccines are winning the race against variants, which don’t seem to be breaking through at higher rates than expected."

arstechnica.com

COVID cases after vaccination are still very rare—variants aren’t changing that

Numbers are an undercount, but they offer more data that vaccines are highly effective.
arstechnica.com arstechnica.com
 
Grace T. said:
Well I didn't think the outbreak was tiny and would stay small. Back in February I even bought a months long supply of groceries knowing things would be shut down for month and told the planning committee for my kid's school that school would not return until the following school year, if then. I called the Los Angeles summer wave and warned of a more dangerous winter wave to come.

I also said the outdoor restrictions were pointless and I took the kids out to exercise every day in the park (without masks) during the initial lockdown (how kiddo finally learned to juggle) If anything I too overestimated the degree of transmissibility outdoors, but I always thought the shutdown of outdoor dining was a mistake and my friend (after a dialogue with me) published her article to move everything outside in the WP.

So, yes some of us did know better thank you very much.
Click to expand...
Wow. Don’t break your arm patting yourself on the back, there.

Your opposition to outdoor restrictions is a side effect of the fact that you opposed every single NPI they tried.

So, yes, you opposed the bad ideas. You opposed the good ones, too. You were as brilliant and foresightful as a rubber stamp that says “NO”.
 
dad4 said:
But that is no reason to declare you know better. You didn't. Last March, you thought it was tiny and would stay small.
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You're uncanny, again a complete mischaracterization of what I said in March. I always said Covid was serious. What I said was don't believe the doomsday predictions of millions of deaths and endless exponential growth of cases and deaths. Tiny and small never came out of my mouth. Still if you look at the numbers the risk of death is small, particularly for those under 60.

And I can absolutely declare I knew better. Unlike you I'm not using hindsight and hypotheticals. I actually conducted my behavior the entire time as if moving things outdoors was effective against Covid. It was just common sense. I even said that the riots and protests didn't significantly contribute to the spread and was laughed at by people on both sides of the debate.
 
dad4 said:
Wow. Don’t break your arm patting yourself on the back, there.

Your opposition to outdoor restrictions is a side effect of the fact that you opposed every single NPI they tried.

So, yes, you opposed the bad ideas. You opposed the good ones, too. You were as brilliant and foresightful as a rubber stamp that says “NO”.
Click to expand...
As usual with your mischaracterizations of others. I supported the travel ban and though the restrictions should be more severe on us citizens. I supported the state mask mandates for indoors but thought cloth masks were a mistake. I thought they should have surge closures of indoor dining bars and gyms. I thought keeping airlines running was a mistake. I supported hardening of the nursing homes and condemned cuomo while others defended him. I thought the office buildings should be closed, though much less restrictive than they were. I thought people should be advised indoor transmission was risky so they could make up their own mind. So no not nothing. My approach was more like the Florida approach or (with hardening of nursing homes/borders/indoor mask state mandates) Sweden.

so yup pat myself on the back. I was far more right about things than either you or your experts. Didn’t nail everything...but my record was close to 80%.
 
watfly said:
It seems your saying being outside was better than masks...is that correct? I firmly believe that and believed that from the very beginning. It just made common sense. Masks may be effective, but are grossly overrated. Moving outside is very effective, but grossly underrated.

Part of the lockdown was the closing of beaches, parks, hiking trails and other open spaces. An expert from Scripps said that surfing was dangerous and that the sea breeze could carry the virus quite a distance. People were ticketed for paddle boarding and having a burrito on the rocks by the beach. Beaches reopened but you couldn't stand still you had to be moving and couldn't sit on the beach. I was threatened with a ticket for surf fishing. These restrictions were absurd and didn't even remotely pass the smell test. Credibility was shot from the beginning. Staying at home was the worst advice ever.

A lockdown will never work in the future. First time shame on you, 2nd time shame on me.
Click to expand...
That's why Dad$'s COVID post are laughable. For me they always have been. He ignored the Scientific history, the bio history, and hyped cases based on the PCR test that was not only flawed but the wrong test for determining real time infections. No wonder our government subsidizes education. The education system teaches what to think. Not How. COVID just made it obvious.
 
Grace T. said:
ianmsc.substack.com

Taiwan: The Ignorance of Experts and Media

The absurdity of assuming "complacency" is responsible for COVID outcomes
ianmsc.substack.com ianmsc.substack.com
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This:

Based on these few countries, hapless politicians terrified of contradicting their preferred experts or government health officials, began operating under the assumption that testing, tracing and masks were key to stopping COVID. As with most other COVID-related policies, those assumptions would turn into unshakable pseudo-religious beliefs, regardless of the clear lack of impact their policies had on proceeding outcomes.

It was cult-like beliefs, actually. You didn't dare to even question any of restrictions for fear of being called a heretic (regardless of your actual behavior). Or in this case, being a member of "team virus" and being accused of prolonging the pandemic. It's crazy what fear will do to followers and what power does to the "prophets". Just obey, even if its lies and the guidance is faulty.
 
Grace T. said:
As usual with your mischaracterizations of others. I supported the travel ban and though the restrictions should be more severe on us citizens. I supported the state mask mandates for indoors but thought cloth masks were a mistake. I thought they should have surge closures of indoor dining bars and gyms. I thought keeping airlines running was a mistake. I supported hardening of the nursing homes and condemned cuomo while others defended him. I thought the office buildings should be closed, though much less restrictive than they were. I thought people should be advised indoor transmission was risky so they could make up their own mind. So no not nothing. My approach was more like the Florida approach or (with hardening of nursing homes/borders/indoor mask state mandates) Sweden.

so yup pat myself on the back. I was far more right about things than either you or your experts. Didn’t nail everything...but my record was close to 80%.
Click to expand...
You now say you supported an indoor mask mandate. WTF?

Your record is quite clear. You spent 14 months finding different ways to tell people masks are not effective. They don’t help much, look at the Dutch study, masks lose their effectiveness, kids can’t wear them, you can infect yourself by touching them, they don’t help if you don’t wash them enough, and so on. Ten posts saying masks are not effective for every one post voicing half hearted support in limited circumstances.

That is not support. That is a solid drumbeat undermining a basic public health measure.

You say it was a mistake to keep airline running? Just yesterday you mocked me for wanting to close air travel to non-essential travel.

You wanted to have surge closures of indoor dining? Last winter, during the surge, you were advocating for relaxing those rules to get people back to work.

Nothing wrong with changing your opinion, but you don’t get to do it retroactively.
 
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