I'm still hoping its just a blip or the moderna turns out different. This would really really crush my dad and for someone like him I'd say but for the allergy absolutely get it.
Bad News Thread
- Thread starter kickingandscreaming
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I'm still hoping its just a blip or the moderna turns out different. This would really really crush my dad and for someone like him I'd say but for the allergy absolutely get it.
Desert Hound
DA
Not sure the relative bias of this source... googled bias and only looked at one report that indicated ‘leaning left’
Bad news thread material... and the comparatives in the article between states are interesting if you know when they did or didn’t implement mitigation policies. There wasn’t much if any mention of that variable in the comparisons.
Coronavirus: California was faring better than the U.S. What happened?
The Golden State has now reported about 62.8 daily cases per 100,000 residents over the past week, a rounding error away from the national rate of 63.1 over that time.
www.google.com
Bad news thread material... and the comparatives in the article between states are interesting if you know when they did or didn’t implement mitigation policies. There wasn’t much if any mention of that variable in the comparisons.
It's consistent with other data sources. Upper midwest maxed out, so they are starting to fall, and CA numbers keep going up. Eventually our daily rate passed the national average.Not sure the relative bias of this source... googled bias and only looked at one report that indicated ‘leaning left’
Coronavirus: California was faring better than the U.S. What happened?
The Golden State has now reported about 62.8 daily cases per 100,000 residents over the past week, a rounding error away from the national rate of 63.1 over that time.www.google.com
Bad news thread material... and the comparatives in the article between states are interesting if you know when they did or didn’t implement mitigation policies. There wasn’t much if any mention of that variable in the comparisons.
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
I'd say there's a fair amount of seasonality in there. The coasts are pretty much the last areas of the US heading toward their "peak" for this wave.
Not sure the relative bias of this source... googled bias and only looked at one report that indicated ‘leaning left’
Coronavirus: California was faring better than the U.S. What happened?
The Golden State has now reported about 62.8 daily cases per 100,000 residents over the past week, a rounding error away from the national rate of 63.1 over that time.www.google.com
Bad news thread material... and the comparatives in the article between states are interesting if you know when they did or didn’t implement mitigation policies. There wasn’t much if any mention of that variable in the comparisons.
Seasonality. Compare to Florida the last 3 months which also had a summer wave and hasn't had nearly as many restrictions. Virus is going to virus.
Yes, there is a large seasonal element.
No, that does not mean a public health failure is inevitable. It is just stupid fatalism to say "the virus is going to virus."
HIV is a virus, too. That doesn't mean everyone should run out and infect each other. You have a brain. You're allowed to use it.
Returning to my bunker to ponder how long it will take the fools to all infect each other..... Maybe I should use a difference equation this time..... Could put it into excel..... Maybe after a margarita....
Margarita? Sure!... but I think you ran the modified equation already, accounting for run rate of non-compliance and/or non-effective mitigation efforts. 200k cases... 100 days (many hospitalizations and deaths).
100 days sounds like a familiar sound bite for something else. Guess worst case they’re also right about 100 days.
Margarita...no wonder we don't get a long....I'm a vodka girl....all that time in the Soviet Union/Russia....sipping a screwdriver right now
HIV is a virus that (once they could screen the blood supply) could be controlled by a condom and being more careful. The Rona hasn't been able to be controlled by a mask. Even someone as linear as you should be able to see the difference.
Except in countries that have gone the route of authoritarianism, or that have some sort of cross-immunity to the virus, public health measures have been an overwhelming failure. You can blame the fools running around to infect each other, but whose the bigger fool- the fool or the policy maker that foolishly expects the fool to be an angel. Like my abuela used to say: you can't expect the pig to learn to crow like the rooster.
I can totally blame the fools. But not as much as I blame those who openly encourage them in their foolishness.
"The virus is going to virus"? That is a pathetic misstatement, whether viewed as science or as grammar. Nouns gotta noun and verbs gotta verb, right?
The virus is what we make of it. And, right now, we are choosing to make a mass death event out of it because we are too spoiled to go without minor luxuries like restaurant meals.
Read that the Sputnik Vaccine guidance is no alcohol for 2 months after dosage... and compliance is an issue as a result.
Hope the science doesn’t support that for other vaccines in the pipeline. If so, compliance will be low along wif efficiency. (Educated guess... cheers!)
Ohhhh ooohhh...teacher's gonna give me a bad grammar grade
That's where your fallacy is: the illusion of control. Minor things like masks and indoor restaurant meals aren't going to cut it.....if it were LA of all places by now would be under control. Snap out of your illusion and get rid of that blue pill you are clutching in the bunker. The choice is to go full on authoritarian (like the PRC, Australia or New Zealand) or to accept that while we might be able to help out on the margins, nothing is really going to stop this short of mass vaccination. All we can do is mitigate....nothing we do short of vaccine is going to control it.
Our history with viruses is very long and very complicated and spans millions of years and longer than civilization has been around. It's a complete fallacy to assume that just in the last 40 years we've finally arisen over them. You are completely delusion to see the world burning around you and think that the answer is we all need to mask harder.
100 days of masks isn’t such a bad idea. Combine it with cancelling trips and closing indoor gathering spaces. We might actually get somewhere.
My bet is that we’ll get half hearted compliance on all of that. We will get up to 25-30 million confirmed cases, and it will start to slow.
Mask harder is funny....how long has California had a mandate? How long has Los Angeles?
You mean a paper mandate, or one that is actually enforced?
Because I knew you'd find it amusing, the weekend before Thanksgiving my elder had to go into the local market to buy some pies. He was in there for about a half hour. I watched at least 300 people go in and out, looking at each one as they went. Store policy was to wear masks (they even yelled at my son when he got out of the distanced checkout line because he thought the express line was open when there was no express line). None of them weren't wearing a mask except a 4 year old who even my son gave the evil eye.
Last Friday we were in a park in Van Nuys for my son's GK training. Given the new Rona policies, they wanted me to sit in the car so I did, working on my phone. Must have watched 50-60 people go past the car making a loop round the park....except for one guy using the chin strap while drinking his coke, all of these people, spaced out, in the open air using their masks. Couple even wore face shields (no gloves this time though).
Last Monday my younger had to get an xray. I showed up with an N95 that has a very small vent. Nope I was told right before entering the building. Had to put a surgical mask on top of it.
How's the mask requirement not being enforced? Sure, there are people here and there outside in the parks for example not wearing them, but a mask in the open air while distanced is stupid and "mask harder" isn't going to make any difference there. The other place is in private residence...sorry but people aren't going to wear masks when socializing or going into people's home. A mask policy, unless you are going to send the police door to door checking, isn't going to do it. And of course the rich and powerful like our dear governor or dear Speaker or dear Senator are always going to make exceptions for themselves.
p.s. how's Santa Clara doing? They've had a mask mandate since May? Correct me if I'm wrong please, but did they ever go back to indoor dining?
Wasn't implying that masks/facial coverings are a bad idea. Death rate in CA supports that action alone (possibly viral load impact on outcomes instead of #of cases).
I am suggesting that 100 days is not an arbitrary choice, but one that is predicated upon assumptions of vaccine roll out or heard immunity. Both of which are expected in 100 days of Inauguration Day. Ie a policy that is politically guaranteed to be seen as effective, but is roughly equivalent to a logical tautology.
That's a deal breaker for me. The occasional drink is the only thing that's gotten me through in the insanity of this year. I'm also pretty sure that if the schools are still closed it's unconstitutional....cruel and unusual punishment under the VIII Amendment.
Did you notice that you assume we will be socializing in each other’s homes?
That is how it spreads, you know. Why do you assume that we all will do the exact thing that spreads the virus?
That’s what I meant by we are spoiled. We can’t imagine life without dinner parties, restaurants, and casinos. So, after fighting against masks for several months, we finally put our masks on. Then we invite people over for Thanksgiving and Christmas so we can infect our friends and family.
Masks are not, by themselves, enough. We need to do more than that. But people here don’t seem to be very willing to do even half of what is recommended.