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Bad News Thread
- Thread starter kickingandscreaming
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I get the sentiment but this list has already been debunked. At the height of the Spanish Flu outbreak, 6K people a day were dying. Also left off the San Francisco Earthquake, Hurricane Maria, and the 1928 hurricane, If you switch to per capita, several of the flu outbreaks in the 20th century make the top 20 as do some of the various illness of the 18th and 19th century. I get the sentiment but overall this is misleading, if not fake, news. This one's been passed around by pro lockdowners on SM all day so you are a bit late to the party.
Apparently pregnant women are also in the last tier because (something I didn’t know) pregnant women and toddlers/infants are the last on which the vaccines are tested (only when they are absolutely sure). If you or someone you know wants to get the vaccine real bad, don’t get pregnant in the coming months
also another way the experts might be messing this up on this one: the uk, Canada and spain at least have said residents of ltc facilities followed by the aged will go first. CDC director renfield indicated that was likely how the us would go. But many states still have front line health care workers, including those under 40 and those that (since they’ve been exposed to it several times already) have already had it. Many have front line responders (police) next instead of say aged in the home or teachers. If you believe other nations are getting it right, the us is not following their lead on this. Is it because we want to further test on health care workers???
also another way the experts might be messing this up on this one: the uk, Canada and spain at least have said residents of ltc facilities followed by the aged will go first. CDC director renfield indicated that was likely how the us would go. But many states still have front line health care workers, including those under 40 and those that (since they’ve been exposed to it several times already) have already had it. Many have front line responders (police) next instead of say aged in the home or teachers. If you believe other nations are getting it right, the us is not following their lead on this. Is it because we want to further test on health care workers???
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
Time for an update. This is what I manually pulled (you can check these at (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html)Ok, I'll do something a little easier than beds that makes the same point. Experts: Joe Biden (JB) and CDC Director Robert Redfield (R)
Biden Predicts 250,000 More Coronavirus Deaths, Urges Americans To Stay Home Over Holidays
You cannot be travelling during these holidays, as much as you want to,” the president-elect said.www.forbes.com
“We’re likely to lose another 250,000 people dead between now and January,” Biden said.
On Wednesday, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Robert Redfield projected 200,000 more coronavirus deaths in December.
Wait, what? 250,000 deaths in December? <opens calculator app on phone> That comes to an average of 8,064.5 deaths/day. How? At our peak this summer, we had a 7-day average of 2,232. Redfield comes in at 6451.6 deaths/day. Today was big at 2610. That less than a third of the AVERAGE that Biden predicts and barely 40% of what Redfield predicts. The current 7-day average is 1531. How do we get to those averages? Cases must be growing, big time, right?
View attachment 9565
Well, not exactly.
View attachment 9566
I can get that deaths/day will increase since deaths lag cases and we are in the midst of a steep increase. However, you can see that before the 7-day average case graph crosses 150,000 it is concave down. I'm guessing that little peak in cases just prior to Thanksgiving is the "extra" folks getting tested before they travel. I have a feeling it would be flatter and a better match with the cases after Thanksgiving that are lower as people didn't test Thanksgiving day and likely not as often in the following weekend (just a guess). To me, this looks like the peak is about now. This doesn't indicate to me a 4 to 5 fold increase in deaths is in the offing.
So, I looked at the state trends to see if anything there might indicate a significant near-term rise. The highest states in cases are all trending down. Only NY is growing and (barely) concave up. The west coast, north-east and mid-Atlantic have some states that are increasing a bit. Everything I see indicates a near term drop in cases. I just don't see how we get anywhere near those numbers as a daily average. I guess the "wildcard" is the Thanksgiving effect - which, so far, appears to be no effect at all. Maybe it's coming.
I'd go with a range of 60,000 - 70,000. 2000/day --> 62,000. Nothing I see indicates it should be much more than that. I guess we'll see. Let's hope I'm correct - 200,000, is a huge number.
Deaths in December:
JB: 250,000
R: 200,000
K: 62,000
And, finally, Grace and dad, knock it off or I'll tell the parents. I can't tell you how many times I heard that from my older brothers.
The average of the first 8 days projected over the whole month would give
71,335 (Daily average: 2,301)
Initial projections
Biden: 250,000 (Daily average: 8,064)
Redfield: 200,000 (Daily average: 6,452)
Me: 62,000 (Daily average: 2,000)
To reach the projections we need the following average for 12/9 - 12/31
Biden: 10,069
Redfield: 7,895
Me: 1,895
We definitely had a jump in cases after the drop before Thanksgiving. At this point, cases are still rising and more states are rising than falling - several of the coastal states at a high rate. I expect the average to increase significantly before it drops. Also, CA and NY are rising quickly and with their populations, they can drive increases when many other states are decreasing. To get to 100,000 we'd need a daily average of 3,547 the rest of the month. I'll update again after data for the 16th.
| Day | Daily | Total | Average | Projection | |
| 12/1 | 1 | 2,610 | 2,610 | 2,610 | 80,910 |
| 12/2 | 2 | 2,885 | 5,495 | 2,748 | 85,173 |
| 12/3 | 3 | 2,857 | 8,352 | 2,784 | 86,304 |
| 12/4 | 4 | 2,637 | 10,989 | 2,747 | 85,165 |
| 12/5 | 5 | 2,190 | 13,179 | 2,636 | 81,710 |
| 12/6 | 6 | 1,111 | 14,290 | 2,382 | 73,832 |
| 12/7 | 7 | 1,522 | 15,812 | 2,259 | 70,025 |
| 12/8 | 8 | 2,597 | 18,409 | 2,301 | 71,335 |
Cases
Playgrounds are open. Guess the ski resort complaints were too much for Newsom. Between the cases striking down the outdoor dining ban and the religious worship cases, and with Biden now coming out saying schools should open within the first 100 days, we are running out of things to lockdown. Oh yeah...wear masks.
www.ktvu.com
California reverses course, now allow playgrounds to remain open
Several high-powered critics had vocally complained about the playground order, saying coronavirus is not widely contracted outside on play structures.
The funny thing is you and I actually agree on a lot of the policies. I'd do an indoor mask mandate, ban indoor dining, bars, movie theatres, would like to ban worship indoors (but recognize that's unconstitutional so would go with a % limitation indoors along with other indoor businesses along with a singing ban), would open at least all the elementary schools and while banning tournaments would have allowed league play with no parents. You and I just disagree where that would have led. Case in point: Quebec which unlike Europe didn't relax and what's happening there now and the new lockdowns.
The sad thing is I disagree with you and Dad. I usually GTFO with you Grace but I think this was all about ____________________ & _________________!
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
Ha! Trouble is, EVERYONE has one of "those" now and they all are calibrated differently.
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
Crush, this if OffTopic2 - No holds barred. You can speak freely here. It's almost like you are in America
. Actually, anonymous posting can bring out the worst in people with language usage far from how they speak in person. I try to avoid those people here the same way I would in person. While I may not read your every post - especially the long ones - I do appreciate that you are respectful.More bad vaccine news already hitting the papers (took 1 day)....hopefully this isn't found to be common or lots of people will be contraindicated because of allergies.....
www.cnn.com
Allergy warning for Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine after UK health workers with allergy history suffer reaction | CNN
People with a "significant history of allergic reactions" should not be given the Pfizer/BioNTech coronavirus vaccine, UK health authorities said Wednesday, after two healthcare workers had symptoms after receiving a shot the day before.
www.cnn.com
Quebec? They opened up restaurants and dining in late June. They even had an outbreak in a karaoke bar- which sort of implies that the bar was open.
COVID-19 Has Forced an Entire Canadian Province to Ban Karaoke
After an outbreak tied to a karaoke bar spread to at least 68 people, Quebec has banned the activity. Some Québécois karaoke fans are not happy.
www.vice.com
How can you say Quebec never relaxed restrictions when they had dining, alcohol, and singing all in the same room?
Quebec? They opened up restaurants and dining in late June. They even had an outbreak in a karaoke bar- which sort of implies that the bar was open.
COVID-19 Has Forced an Entire Canadian Province to Ban Karaoke
After an outbreak tied to a karaoke bar spread to at least 68 people, Quebec has banned the activity. Some Québécois karaoke fans are not happy.
How can you say Quebec never relaxed restrictions when they had dining, alcohol, and singing all in the same room?
Apologies, was misinformed by some righteous Canadians who had said they got it right and we Trumpy Americans had got it wrong.
Because it rang true, I made the mistake of believing them. But you are correct, they did open up over the summer. However, they have been closed since Oct 1. and still got their curve.
Montreal’s Restaurant Lockdown Extended Once More, Now Into the New Year
But many owners have reportedly yet to receive the financial aid Quebec has promised
montreal.eater.com
That's what I've been wondering...how are they handling those that have already had covid? It seems to me they can stretch the vaccine much farther if they don't give it to those that already have antibodies, at least on first pass.
I'm going to pull a Dad4 here, while I don't think epidemiologists should setting health policy (too narrow perspective), I value epidemiologists opinions on the safety and efficacy of the vaccine. I take any opinion with a grain of salt, but there seems to be significant consensus that the vaccine is safe. The jury is still out on the safety for children, but I suspect by the time their turn comes we will have more information. I likely will not be opposed to my kids getting it. However, given the Covid risk to children and their ability to spread it I wonder how necessary, or effective, it will be to vaccinate kids if the adults have been vaccinated. I suspect many schools may require the vaccination. My only real concern about the Pfizer vaccine is the ability to keep it at the proper temperature and not destroy its effectiveness.
If the vast majority of adults are vaccinated by summer (or even by year end 2021), this will be one of the greatest medical triumphs ever. By all historical measures this should have taken 5-10 years. I'm a big fan of public/private partnerships, or in this case govt/public/private, and this is proof of how effective they can be, or in this produce case unprecedented results, a science miracle, if you will. We can argue over the response to the virus so far, but if the vaccine works you can't in good faith deny that its a major achievement for the administration (yes the vaccine companies did all the heavy lifting)
Agree with most of what you say, but the big caveat is the allergy news out of the UK. Some of us were worried the problem with an mRNA vaccine would be autoimmune responses(and allergies are linked to that). Hopefully these are just flukes (though coming 1 day after they started injecting people is not exactly reassuring, though its possible the reactions may be caused not by the mRNA but the other substances in the vaccine) and aren't wide spread, because if they are its a disaster in the making (yeah I know....just call me Eeyore).
Listen the left stopped disparaging the vaccine after Biden won, can you not do the same thing?
The allergy issue doesn't really move the needle for me (pardon the pun), yet. It doesn't surprise me that those with a "significant history of allergic reactions" might react unfavorably to the vaccine. If your carrying an epi pen, you might want to opt out of getting the shot initially.
Like I said...call me Eeyore. From where I'm coming from, I'm not going to listen to the so-called experts on masks, lockdowns, outdoor dining, youth sports, or schools without asking questions, so I'm certainly not going to give the experts or the Trump admin (just because it's red) a pass on the vaccine. I think in the end the vaccines probably all pan out o.k., but I am concerned that there have been no long term studies on the mRNA process. I would be much more comfortable (and have much fewer reservations) taking the regular vaccine. (Note I also don't care if these questions don't make me popular because people (not saying it's you) just want the vaccine to make this over).
The allergy thing, though, is very concerning, particularly if they plan to mandate it. I, for one, would be contraindicated. I know at least 4 other people (including one of my parents) who would be too (and that would really crush him).
Note too I am very very very very very pro vaccine, and if I thought it was constitutional, would remove even the religious exception for childhood vaccines. My kids have all the vaccines and I'm current on all mine (including Shingles and pneumonia). I really believe in vaccines, which should tell you something about my level of concern. Again, I think, and hope and pray, in the end it pans out, but I'm not exactly surprised by the news that came out of the UK.
I get it, I'm just giving you a hard time and explaining my position. I need to get the shingles vaccine.
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
Ugh. Assuming the vaccine is effective for older folks, getting a high percentage of older folks and front-line workers vaccinated by the end of February may squash any big surge of deaths from March forward. Fingers crossed this doesn’t derail/delay.More bad vaccine news already hitting the papers (took 1 day)....hopefully this isn't found to be common or lots of people will be contraindicated because of allergies.....
Allergy warning for Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine after UK health workers with allergy history suffer reaction | CNN
People with a "significant history of allergic reactions" should not be given the Pfizer/BioNTech coronavirus vaccine, UK health authorities said Wednesday, after two healthcare workers had symptoms after receiving a shot the day before.