Bad News Thread

No, no, no, Hound. You need to compare the third Monday of each month in the US to the second Tuesday of the prior month in the UK and the fourth Wednesday of 2 months prior for the rest of the EU. Make sure you adjust for time differences in all places, afternoon tea in the UK, siestas in Spain and the two-hour lunches in France. Then you'll see that masks are almost as effective as vaccines.
You could actually do some analysis instead of just mocking it, you know.

The original argument was comparing a known 70% effective mask against a 70% effective vaccine which did not yet exist.

I have not seen anyone argue that a 70% effective mask is better than a 95% effective vaccine- now that we know we have one.
 
You could actually do some analysis instead of just mocking it, you know.

The original argument was comparing a known 70% effective mask against a 70% effective vaccine which did not yet exist.

I have not seen anyone argue that a 70% effective mask is better than a 95% effective vaccine- now that we know we have one.
In fairness, I said, "almost", but J&J is about 72% effective in the US, right? Basically the same as the claim of the mask at 70%.


So, if someone is telling me this is the case, that means from the time we started mask policy in CA, if we would have replaced masks with everyone being vaccinated by the J&J shot (and given two weeks), we would expect the same number of new hospitalizations and deaths. Is that the claim?
 
In fairness, I said, "almost", but J&J is about 72% effective in the US, right? Basically the same as the claim of the mask at 70%.


So, if someone is telling me this is the case, that means from the time we started mask policy in CA, if we would have replaced masks with everyone being vaccinated by the J&J shot (and given two weeks), we would expect the same number of new hospitalizations and deaths. Is that the claim?
That’s what I thought. 70% is 70%. I was wrong.

The mask‘s 70% doesn’t apply to in home transmission. So the mask ends up acting more like a 45% reduction. (70% reduction outside the home, 0% reduction inside the home. Geometric mean gives you 45% reduction.)

To get an effective 70% with masks, you’ve have to have a solid plan to quarantine infected people outside the home. We did not have that in CA.

That said, LA managed a variant covid better than most states managed plain covid. So something was helping, and it happened too early to be the vaccine.
 
So @dad4 was sure bad thins would happen when TX opened up all biz and dropped masks.

We are not yet at a month yet...but getting close. Lets see what is happening so far.

The start is here.

View attachment 10488

As of today we are here.

Not much of a difference.

View attachment 10489

But let us take a closer look just to be sure. Dad the stat guy was sure opening biz and no more masks would lead to a spike in cases.

Lets see what the trend is.

Well cases continue to fall. Crazy right? @dad4 the guy that claims he understands stats whiffed again. Why? Because as usual he fails to look at real world data. If the model tells you one thing, but the real world data tells you another, it is time to re-evaluate.

In the end a year in, based on actual DATA we can say TX handled the crisis far better vs CA. For starters kids were in school in person all year and go from there.

View attachment 10490
Much of Texas, many, many businesses are going on with full Covid-19 precautions. Masks, social distancing and limiting occupancy. Texans aren’t stupid, but their politically motivated governor is acting like he is.
 
Much of Texas, many, many businesses are going on with full Covid-19 precautions. Masks, social distancing and limiting occupancy. Texans aren’t stupid, but their politically motivated governor is acting like he is.
I was going to comment something similar but stopped- only because what I had was just anectdotal from a friend living in San Antonio.
She is a realtor there and says all her clients still wear masks- and her neighborhood stores are mostly full of masked people too.
 
I was going to comment something similar but stopped- only because what I had was just anectdotal from a friend living in San Antonio.
She is a realtor there and says all her clients still wear masks- and her neighborhood stores are mostly full of masked people too.
My wife is there now. I have family and friends literally all over Texas and get the same reports even from the trumpiest of them.
 
I was going to comment something similar but stopped- only because what I had was just anectdotal from a friend living in San Antonio.
She is a realtor there and says all her clients still wear masks- and her neighborhood stores are mostly full of masked peo
So the bars and restaurants are not open 100%?

Trick question they are.

While many will still wear a mask, many will stop. Many biz have/will stop enforcing masks. Further they have no capacity restrictions.

And what do we see?

Declining cases.

@dad4 specifically said it was not a good idea. As we look at the numbers...the DATA tells a different story.
 
Would you mind not putting words in my mouth?

It is so fucking rude.

If you think I said something, go find the quote, reply to it.
You said it was a bad idea. Why would it be a bad idea? Increases the spread right?

What does the data show?

It shows that again your concern was misplaced.

What part of that did I get wrong?
 
Abbott is being a political twit.

He has the data on masks, he knows they work, and he repeals the mask rule anyway.

Why? He needs a distraction. Repealing a mask mandate is easier than talking about the near complete failure of the electric grid and natural gas infrastructure.

So Abbott repeals the mask rule to distract people from their broken water pipes.​
Let's save the above for future reference.

TX won't see any spike due to the mask mandate gone and everything opening up and the vaccine being out.

CA will lag again and months from now the data will show (again) that they may as well have followed FL and TX.
So above we see you think it is a bad idea.

To be fair you don't like the idea of people doing much of anything ;)

That said have we seen any spike in cases due to lifting the mask mandate or allowing restaurants, bars, biz to be at 100% capacity?

Clearly you would not have allowed it.

But now as the data comes in what do we see?

There is no issue is there, correct?
 
I calculate that the trailing 7 day daily average of cases has decreased 50% since Texas reopened 100% and removed the mask mandates (5,617 daily to 2,831). That's about the extent of my math abilities. What does the huge decrease prove? Not sure, but it certainly casts substantial doubt on the effectiveness of lockdown mandates and/or implies that vaccines may be effective.

Now, I'm sure some epidemiologist, statistician, research analyst could go into his/her controlled lab bubble and apply all sorts of tests and regression analyses to prove something entirely different, but ultimately you can't question real world results. It doesn't matter how great you are at math or studying viruses you can't change reality.
 
So the bars and restaurants are not open 100%?

Trick question they are.

While many will still wear a mask, many will stop. Many biz have/will stop enforcing masks. Further they have no capacity restrictions.

And what do we see?

Declining cases.

@dad4 specifically said it was not a good idea. As we look at the numbers...the DATA tells a different story.

I think people and businesses will still do the mask thing until they announce general vaccination for people (Biden said May 1) and a few weeks after that. People right now just trying to be courteous for those that haven't been vaccinated. People are smart and will react to incentives outside of govt mandates.

World roundup: Germany's numbers still rising. Seems like the Nordics might be at peak. Belgium's plateau has begun to rise but at a slower pace than that of its neighbors. Spain has plateaued lending some credence to the latitude theory: that the third wave is moving downwards from higher to lower latitudes. Canada is rising at north of 5000 cases per day still. Japan has begun a 3rd wave. South Korea is stubbornly plateaued at 500 cases per day and has been for awhile. Los Angeles County is plateaued at about 350 cases per day. Ventura County is seeing a small uptick.
Mexico still in decline but South America (including Chile which has done so well with vaccines) still all mostly rising. South Africa despite supposedly the worst of the variants still flat as they head into mid fall. .
 
I think people and businesses will still do the mask thing until they announce general vaccination for people (Biden said May 1) and a few weeks after that. People right now just trying to be courteous for those that haven't been vaccinated. People are smart and will react to incentives outside of govt mandates.

World roundup: Germany's numbers still rising. Seems like the Nordics might be at peak. Belgium's plateau has begun to rise but at a slower pace than that of its neighbors. Spain has plateaued lending some credence to the latitude theory: that the third wave is moving downwards from higher to lower latitudes. Canada is rising at north of 5000 cases per day still. Japan has begun a 3rd wave. South Korea is stubbornly plateaued at 500 cases per day and has been for awhile. Los Angeles County is plateaued at about 350 cases per day. Ventura County is seeing a small uptick.
Mexico still in decline but South America (including Chile which has done so well with vaccines) still all mostly rising. South Africa despite supposedly the worst of the variants still flat as they head into mid fall. .

In the US Michigan, NY and New Jersey seem to be doing the worst. Michigan might be the model for what the 3rd wave looks like: rising cases, rise in hospitalizations, slight rise in ICU levels, deaths have had a very small uptick. Michigan has vaccinated 74% of seniors with at least 1 shot. Question then becomes what do people have tolerance for.

 
You said it was a bad idea. Why would it be a bad idea? Increases the spread right?

What does the data show?

It shows that again your concern was misplaced.

What part of that did I get wrong?
There is a difference between “a bad idea” and “will result in March cases being above February cases”.

Slowing the rate of case decline also counts as a bad outcome.

What does the data show? The data shows that masks reduce the spread of disease, and that restaurants increase the spread of disease. Studied, published, and peer reviewed.

This does not rely on some weak n=2 comparison between the Texas daily case rate per 100K and the California daily case rate per 100K.

If you really want the weak n=3 comparison: comparison happens to show the CA cases at about half the TX cases and a third the level of FL cases. So, TX and FL are getting worse outcomes, but the real evidence is not those three numbers. Their rate of decline has been slowed. And, by now, stalled.
Abbott is being a political twit.​
He has the data on masks, he knows they work, and he repeals the mask rule anyway.​
Why? He needs a distraction. Repealing a mask mandate is easier than talking about the near complete failure of the electric grid and natural gas infrastructure.​
So Abbott repeals the mask rule to distract people from their broken water pipes.​

So above we see you think it is a bad idea.

To be fair you don't like the idea of people doing much of anything ;)

That said have we seen any spike in cases due to lifting the mask mandate or allowing restaurants, bars, biz to be at 100% capacity?

Clearly you would not have allowed it.

But now as the data comes in what do we see?

There is no issue is there, correct?
Abbott was being a political twit. He was trying to distract people from the broken water pipes that resulted when the weakly regulated natural gas pipelines froze. And, to the extent that Texans are wearing their masks less, they are suffering higher rates of covid infection than they would otherwise have seen.

Where, in any of that, does it say that the result will be a spike?

As far as I can tell, the result is a stable level of new covid infections. This is a worse result than the exponential decline we saw back in Jan/Feb. This, despite higher vaccination rates and worse weather. We should be seeing a faster exponential decline. Instead we are seeing a plateau.
 
As far as I can tell, the result is a stable level of new covid infections. This is a worse result than the exponential decline we saw back in Jan/Feb. This, despite higher vaccination rates and worse weather. We should be seeing a faster exponential decline. Instead we are seeing a plateau.

FYI, this is also what we are seeing in Chile despite a great vaccinate rate, worsening weather, and a new round of lockdowns.
 
Since that is the group of people that have accounted for close to roughly 80% of all deaths...with them getting vaccinated, the crisis is over.
all restrictions should have been removed by last May 2020. We already had all the data we needed. But no, the self appointed experts lined up behind Fauci the Fraud like the sheep that they are.
 
Much of Texas, many, many businesses are going on with full Covid-19 precautions. Masks, social distancing and limiting occupancy. Texans aren’t stupid, but their politically motivated governor is acting like he is.
So much for not telling others how to live their lives. Isn't that your battle cry? You people crack me up.
 
What does the data show?
Lab data or real world results? Real world results clearly shows that there is zero correlation, let alone causation, between mandates, or lack of thereof, and Covid infections. You don't need a math or epidemiology degree to understand that concept (although it apparently helps if you don't have that degree)

Texas daily infections have decreased 50% since all restrictions were removed. However, I'm not claiming that removing restrictions works in reducing the virus, and I'm not cherry picking Texas to prove my point because that's intellectually dishonest. There simply is just no correlation either way in regards to restrictions. That's why its so painfully obvious that you can't approach the problem with Covid myopathy and have to consider the overall costs and benefits.
 
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