Bad News Thread

[Bruddah IZ]

Let's begin with some news out of forbidden Sweden. According to Reuters, "Sweden, which has shunned the strict lockdowns that have choked much of the global economy, emerged from 2020 with a smaller increase in its overall mortality rate than most European countries, an analysis of official data sources showed." The sources studied included 30 countries. Some 21 of them had higher excess-death percentages than Sweden. And then we get this interesting final sentence: "Sweden’s official COVID-19 death toll is more than 13,000, although some people may have died from other causes than the disease." Wait, what's that? Deaths attributed to COVID-19 may actually result from "other causes than the disease"? We're allowed to say that now? Now, to Arizona, where the governor is getting raked over the coals by local politicians and some doctors for lifting statewide COVID restrictions. You know everything they're going to say, so I won't bother repeating any of it. These same people, as the heroic Ian Miller points out, repeatedly demanded interventions, never got them, the curve fell dramatically without them, and nobody ever followed up or apologized or wondered how that could have happened:

(Source: nytimes .com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html) Also courtesy of Ian, Rhode Island won all kinds of praise for its draconian policies, but then no second thoughts or nuance or any kind when cases rose 2825% in four months:

(Source: nytimes .com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html) And finally: Not too long ago I wrote to you about the heroic Kathryn Huwig in Ohio, whose COVID analytics have been excellent from the very start. I wrote to tell you about her appearance at the State House. In her testimony, she held up a chart of ICU bed usage in Ohio since March 2020. The X-axis, indicating time, was omitted on purpose. She noted that Ohio's alleged "public health" authorities had picked out certain events and certain state policies as being significant with respect to COVID, either in terms of spread or mitigation. All right, she said. If these things -- like Thanksgiving and Christmas (which should have led to an explosion in COVID numbers, according to the "public health" establishment), or the implementation of the mask mandate and the curfew (which should have led to lower numbers) -- really had such a significant effect that severe interventions into people's lives were justified, we should surely be able to identify them on the graph even without the help of the dates. So go ahead, she said. Show me on the graph where the curfew went into effect, the mask mandate was instituted, when businesses opened in the spring, etc. And of course it's impossible to find these events on the chart, because none of them appear to accomplish anything. I decided: I have to get her on my show. And I did it: https://tomwoods.com/ep-1860-kathryn-huwig-smashes-covid-pseudoscience-at-state-house/ Well, I'm happy to say that Kathryn is now a member of the Tom Woods Show Elite! It's the place where your dreams of interacting with sane people come true.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

The vast majority of negative outcomes are among the elderly.

Are your handlers now allowing you to say what we've known for decades?

 

[Bruddah IZ]

You've forgotten the vaccine comparison came when we didn't know if any vaccine would reach 70%.

The 70% estimate is from the real world. It is 70%, as used in the real world.

Errors in fit, behavior adaptations, and so on are real concerns, but they are already baked into the 70% estimate.

Grace's point about in home transmission makes a bigger difference. The vaccine gets its full power in that setting, but masks and distance get nothing.

In some sense, it means any vaccine reduction should get counted twice. In a chain of 2 transmissions, one at home and one outside, the vaccine reduces both. So a 70% effective vaccine reduces the chain to 9% of what it would have been. (.3*.3).

Similarly, a behavior change reduction should get counted once. A 70% effective behavior change reduces the chain to 30% what it would have been.(.3*1)

In effect, a 70% effective mask is similar to a 45% effective vaccine. Not as good as J&J, but not zero, either.

You're babbling

 

[dad4]

You're babbling

No. I am thinking. You are reposting half truths you found on some right wing fringe site.

Look at your Rhode Island chart. Is it really true that there were absolutley no policy or behavior changes from May 2020 to March 2021? Seems pretty unlikely. It just means you cribbed the chart from some advocate who only shows you what he wants to show.

 

[Kicker4Life]

Here’s the rub....masks/distancing/lock downs do nothing to improve immunity or health. Therefore as soon as you remove those “barriers” you are at risk.

It’s ironic that our public health leaders have not once put out a campaign of eating healthy, exercising and basic vitamin regiments that will help minimize your Covid impact risk.

Any idea why?

 

[Bruddah IZ]

No. I am thinking. You are reposting half truths you found on some right wing fringe site.

Look at your Rhode Island chart. Is it really true that there were absolutley no policy or behavior changes from May 2020 to March 2021? Seems pretty unlikely. It just means you cribbed the chart from some advocate who only shows you what he wants to show.

The NYT is hardly right wing. Please continue.

 

[kickingandscreaming]

You've forgotten the vaccine comparison came when we didn't know if any vaccine would reach 70%.

The 70% estimate is from the real world. It is 70%, as used in the real world.

Errors in fit, behavior adaptations, and so on are real concerns, but they are already baked into the 70% estimate.

Grace's point about in home transmission makes a bigger difference. The vaccine gets its full power in that setting, but masks and distance get nothing.

In some sense, it means any vaccine reduction should get counted twice. In a chain of 2 transmissions, one at home and one outside, the vaccine reduces both. So a 70% effective vaccine reduces the chain to 9% of what it would have been. (.3*.3).

Similarly, a behavior change reduction should get counted once. A 70% effective behavior change reduces the chain to 30% what it would have been.(.3*1)

In effect, a 70% effective mask is similar to a 45% effective vaccine. Not as good as J&J, but not zero, either.

Do we have a "real-world" comparison of mask mandates vs. vaccinations? I'd say hospitalizations and deaths are the two results that will be most reliable as cases will be undercounted in the non-vaccinated population. Have they taken all the states that had both mask mandates and participated in the trial vaccine program and compared the % of hospitalizations and deaths (by age) in the non-vaccinated population and the population that was vaccinated (vaccinations after the first 2 weeks)? That is a reasonable comparison between the vaccine and mask policy.

 

[espola]

The NYT is hardly right wing. Please continue.

But the Mises Institute is.

 

[dad4]

The NYT is hardly right wing. Please continue.

Who put your Rhode Island chart together and added a partial timeline in yellow? That wasn’t the NYT.

Whoever it was, they seem to have forgotten to mention the fact that RI opened indoor dining last summer, a bit before their surge in cases.

Reopening RI: Indoor Dining Regulations In Phase 2

Restaurants will be allowed to offer limited indoor dining in Rhode Island starting June 1.

patch.com

So, they opened gyms and dining in June. Within a month, that stopped the improvement in case counts. While weather was good, open dining meant mostly flat cases. Once weather turned bad, open dining meant a huge spike.

Your chart no longer seems to prove what you said it proves.

 

[dad4]

Do we have a "real-world" comparison of mask mandates vs. vaccinations? I'd say hospitalizations and deaths are the two results that will be most reliable as cases will be undercounted in the non-vaccinated population. Have they taken all the states that had both mask mandates and participated in the trial vaccine program and compared the % of hospitalizations and deaths (by age) in the non-vaccinated population and the population that was vaccinated (vaccinations after the first 2 weeks)? That is a reasonable comparison between the vaccine and mask policy.

You can’t split out sub populations when you are looking at herd immunity type calculations. If the populations can mix, then the virus is flowing between group A and group B. Even if group B has a lower transmission rate, the data are so mixed you may not see it in case rates. ( Group B has case rates that include infections from group. A, and vice versa.)

You’d have to look at different countries with different mask/distance/vaccine rates. For example, you could look at England (Feb) versus New York (Mar). Cold weather and roughly 25% vaccinated, but one had serious NPI and the other did not. So far, that one indicates that strong NPI work better than opening indoor dining.

 

[kickingandscreaming]

You can’t split out sub populations when you are looking at herd immunity type calculations. If the populations can mix, then the virus is flowing between group A and group B. Even if group B has a lower transmission rate, the data are so mixed you may not see it in case rates. ( Group B has case rates that include infections from group. A, and vice versa.)

You’d have to look at different countries with different mask/distance/vaccine rates. For example, you could look at England (Feb) versus New York (Mar). Cold weather and roughly 25% vaccinated, but one had serious NPI and the other did not. So far, that one indicates that strong NPI work better than opening indoor dining.

Are you saying we can't look at CA vaccinated vs. CA not-vaccinated and compare the numbers, but we can compare numbers from England in February to NY in March?

 

[Grace T.]

We could have a real discussion if both sides were willing to accept the results of the research that has been done so far.

Masks work. Vaccines work. Bars and restaurants spread covid. Multi family households spread covid. Outdoor activities are far safer than indoor. Shool shutdowns are very bad for learning. Some variants are partially vaccine resistant, but we don't know how much. Unemployment is far higher in CA, lower in FL and NZ. The vast majority of negative outcomes are among the elderly.

Those are the starting points for a decent discussion. And not one of them is the least bit controversial among the people who study these things.

The arguments over how much weight to give each factor and what “work” “spread” and “safe” mean.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

Who put your Rhode Island chart together and added a partial timeline in yellow? That wasn’t the NYT.

Whoever it was, they seem to have forgotten to mention the fact that RI opened indoor dining last summer, a bit before their surge in cases.

Reopening RI: Indoor Dining Regulations In Phase 2

Restaurants will be allowed to offer limited indoor dining in Rhode Island starting June 1.

patch.com

So, they opened gyms and dining in June. Within a month, that stopped the improvement in case counts. While weather was good, open dining meant mostly flat cases. Once weather turned bad, open dining meant a huge spike.

Your chart no longer seems to prove what you said it proves.

It actually does. The chart says so much for the efficacy of mask and social distancing to lower case counts. I don't think you get how this works. Or how things should work given the following from your article:

Customers

• Party sizes will be capped at 15 people, per the updated gathering limit. Customers are encouraged to limit their party size to eight people or less, which is the limit for a single table.
• Customers are asked not to socialize with people at tables surrounding them.
• Party sizes will be capped at 15 people, per the updated gathering limit. Customers are encouraged to limit their party size to eight people or less, which is the limit for a single table. Parties of nine to 15 people should be seated at separate tables or outdoors.
• Online or phone reservations are strongly encouraged. If this is not possible, restaurants are asked to use an outdoor reservation or host stand system.
• At least one member of each party will be asked to provide their contact information for the Rhode Island Department of Health in case of an outbreak. This log must be kept for 30 days.
• Customers are asked to wear a fabric face covering when entering and exiting a restaurant and when in a common areas such as a hallway or restroom.

Employees

• The Rhode Island Department of Health encouraged businesses to stagger and group employee shifts so the same people work together every day.
• Businesses are asked to keep a work log with employee contact information in case of an outbreak.
• Employees should avoid coming within 6 feet of customers and other employees as much as possible.
• Employees, customers and anyone else visiting a restaurant should be screened for symptoms of illness. Self-screening with posted signs at the entrance is acceptable.
• Employees are asked to wear face masks whenever they cannot reasonably stay 6 feet away from others.
• Businesses must train employees on cleaning procedures and other new safety protocols. One employee must be designated to implement these procedures and ensure they are being followed.

Cleaning

• All restaurants must be thoroughly cleaned before opening.
• Tables, chairs and other high-touch surfaces must be sanitized between parties.
• Hand sanitizer or hand washing stations must be available to employees and customers.
• Self-serve areas such as buffets and salad bars are not allowed.
• Menus must be disposed of or sanitized between each use or digital, electronic or a whiteboard.
• Silverware must be disposable or sanitized between uses. Reusable silverware should be individually packaged or rolled.
• Self-serve drink refills are not allowed. Refills must be in a new, clean cup.
• Condiments are encouraged to be served in single-use packages, or only provided upon request and sanitized between uses.

 

[Glitterhater]

These threads are always the same. Bruddah and Crush being besties- thinking that anything they can't comprehend must be false or some conspiracy, Dad & Grace having a lovers quarrel, EOTL & gang calling everyone a trumpster magat, Hound doing what Hound does, (honestly not sure what that is, I still confuse him with others,) .. what did I miss? Disclaimer: I have muted a few so these are based on posting history.

 

[dad4]

Are you saying we can't look at CA vaccinated vs. CA not-vaccinated and compare the numbers, but we can compare numbers from England in February to NY in March?

Yep. Ain't science weird?

The number of cases among CA non-vaccinated is heavily influenced by the presence of vaccinated neighbors. All those other vaccinated people mean you are less likely to be exposed- whether you took the vaccine or not.

 

[crush]

These threads are always the same. Bruddah and Crush being besties- thinking that anything they can't comprehend must be false or some conspiracy, Dad & Grace having a lovers quarrel, EOTL & gang calling everyone a trumpster magat, Hound doing what Hound does, (honestly not sure what that is, I still confuse him with others,) .. what did I miss? Disclaimer: I have muted a few so these are based on posting history.

I think you're smart and insightful. I do love Bruddah but he kicked me around some when i needed it back in the day. Hound PM me one time told me to get my shit together. Actually, I had another old pal ((I wont share avatar name)) that PM me to to see if I was alright. I will admit I had some melt downs. I'm sorry for that. Dad is a liar. Grace is amazing and i feel her pain. EOTL represents the darkness and I love him too. You, I dont understand but you seem like a nice person. In fact, everyone I have met in soccer I love. It's a love hate kind of relationship. I feel all the parents pain and I can also feel how hard it must have been trying to coach kids and then have to deal with some of us parents. Were all nuts!!!

 

[kickingandscreaming]

Yep. Ain't science weird?

The number of cases among CA non-vaccinated is heavily influenced by the presence of vaccinated neighbors. All those other vaccinated people mean you are less likely to be exposed- whether you took the vaccine or not.

You know, if all this "weird science" could actually predict what will happen with any consistency, people might actually pay attention to it.

 

[dad4]

You know, if all this "weird science" could actually predict what will happen with any consistency, people might actually pay attention to it.

Sorry. This is biology. If you want predictions, try physics.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

These threads are always the same. Bruddah and Crush being besties- thinking that anything they can't comprehend must be false or some conspiracy, Dad & Grace having a lovers quarrel, EOTL & gang calling everyone a trumpster magat, Hound doing what Hound does, (honestly not sure what that is, I still confuse him with others,) .. what did I miss? Disclaimer: I have muted a few so these are based on posting history.

How about a self assessment.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

Yep. Ain't science weird?

The number of cases among CA non-vaccinated is heavily influenced by the presence of vaccinated neighbors. All those other vaccinated people mean you are less likely to be exposed- whether you took the vaccine or not.

Aren't the shots already outdated by the variants?