Bad News Thread

[Bruddah IZ]

Now, for more virus info. Our friend Ian Miller (@ianmSC) just released these charts about Montana, with this commentary: "It’s remarkable to me that people can look at a chart like this and think 'yes, masks are an effective intervention.' Cases went up 1446% after Montana’s mask mandate on 7/15…now it’s been 2.5 weeks since they lifted the mandate and cases are down -35.2%. I just don't get it."

(Source: COVID Tracking Project) Honestly: if you hadn't been propagandized into believing that masks play an important role in all this, would you seriously look at those charts and say, "Thank goodness for masks"? Nobody would. And yet everyone repeats the obligatory paeans to masks. Here's a chart from Colorado. As one commentator put it, the people claiming that "it would have been worse without masks" are moving the goalposts. They used to cheer masks for preventing spikes like the one in the chart. Then we get a spike and instead of admitting they were wrong, they suddenly retreat to the unfalsifiable "it would have been worse" b.s.

(Source: covid19 dot colorado dot gov/data) Now let's travel to Europe. Let's compare the Czech Republic with Sweden. Before we do so, let's compare mask usage. The Czech Republic is in red; Sweden is in blue. (Sorry for the poor quality; what matters here are the magnitudes, which you can see.)

And now, daily deaths. The quotation in the chart below is from Eric Feigl-Ding, the nutritionist who has managed to pass himself off as an infectious disease expert and who has done nothing but spread fear and panic from the very beginning. He took an indirect swipe at the U.S. early on by claiming that the Czechs had "basically conquered COVID" after two months of mask wearing. Did he ever retract this? Need I even ask the question?

(Source: World Health Organization) OK, that's plenty of narrative-smashing for one day. Now for a special message: The old man here has created a whole bunch of online courses that people enjoy. He's figured out every aspect of it: equipment to use, how to edit your material, how to market it, how to make sales, etc. (And also how not to commit an atrocity after you've made a video and then when playing it back find that the audio hadn't been recording.) Online courses are an excellent way to dip your toe into earning some smackers online and diversify your sources of smackers. I think 2020 was a good object lesson in the need to do this. I've assembled some free resources for you -- an eBook and some demonstration videos -- if you're curious (and I hope you are):

 

[Bruddah IZ]

Journalist Brett Kelman just walked into a buzzsaw. Promoting his latest article on Twitter, he began: "As COVID-19 swept the American South over the past 12 months, our uninformed and selfish choices worsened the pandemic in every way. We paid the price in lives." In other words, the usual line: you stupid rubes wouldn't listen to your "public health" experts, so the deaths are all your fault. Well, Ian Miller, who compiles so many of the charts I share with you, happened to see this. The result was a brutal, bloody beatdown. Ian began: "Hey Brett, wondering if you can explain this to me...if behavior and rules are so important, why do all of these curves look the same?"

Ol' Brett came back with: "Short answer? Because the behavior was largely the same. My story covers 4 of these states, and in those states residents generally followed the same gathering patterns, resulting in similar infection curves." Ian wasn't about to let him get away with that. "You think people in South Carolina and Louisiana behaved the same way? Despite totally different rules and mandates? That’s the explanation? "How about Kansas and Illinois and West Virginia, same behavior there too?"

Ian keeps going. "Nevada opened the largest casinos and hotels in the world last spring while California’s been one of the most closed states in the country since March. So we know the behavior’s been different there. What happened?"

Ian won't stop. "Southern California counties have all had different rules at different times with wildly varying levels of compliance. Didn’t matter here either. Ever thought that maybe behavior is an excuse used by politicians to explain why their policies aren’t working?"

Kelman responded: "Have I thought about it? Yes. I would like to look more at these charts you are posting, but not as Twitter screenshots. Mind sharing your source for these images?" Ian proceeds to do so (they're listed at the bottom of each chart), with most of the data coming from the covidtracking dot com site. Kelman thanks him, and the exchange ends. It is virtually certain that Kelman had never seen any of this. He had bought the "it's your fault" argument hook, line, and sinker. The chart for Arizona, Nevada, and California is especially important, because the LA Times and the government of California are trying to take the credit for the decline in cases. But Arizona and Nevada didn't have such extreme lockdowns, and their curves are about the same. If we had actual journalists, our "public health officials" (I cannot use that phrase except inside mocking quotation marks) would be mercilessly interrogated about all this on a daily basis. What we have instead are curious, honest people like Ian Miller who report the truths we should be reading in the news.

 

[kickingandscreaming]

You've forgotten the vaccine comparison came when we didn't know if any vaccine would reach 70%.

The 70% estimate is from the real world. It is 70%, as used in the real world.

Errors in fit, behavior adaptations, and so on are real concerns, but they are already baked into the 70% estimate.

Grace's point about in home transmission makes a bigger difference. The vaccine gets its full power in that setting, but masks and distance get nothing.

In some sense, it means any vaccine reduction should get counted twice. In a chain of 2 transmissions, one at home and one outside, the vaccine reduces both. So a 70% effective vaccine reduces the chain to 9% of what it would have been. (.3*.3).

Similarly, a behavior change reduction should get counted once. A 70% effective behavior change reduces the chain to 30% what it would have been.(.3*1)

In effect, a 70% effective mask is similar to a 45% effective vaccine. Not as good as J&J, but not zero, either.

Are people getting as severely ill when they get the virus after being vaccinated as they are when they get the virus when they aren't?

From NY Times

One study found that just four out of 8,121 fully vaccinated employees at the University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center in Dallas became infected. The other found that only seven out of 14,990 workers at UC San Diego Health and the David Geffen School of Medicine at the University of California, Los Angeles tested positive two or more weeks after receiving a second dose of either the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna vaccines. Both reports, published on Tuesday in the New England Journal of Medicine, show how well the vaccines work in the real world, and during a period of intense transmission.

...

Only some of the virus-positive health workers in the California study showed symptoms, she said, and they tended to be mild, suggesting that the vaccines were protective. That echoes data from the vaccine trials indicating that breakthrough infections were mild and did not require hospitalizations. Some people had no symptoms at all, and were discovered only through testing in studies or as part of their medical care.

Vaccinated People Can Get Covid, but It’s Most Likely Very Rare (Published 2021)

“Breakthrough” cases, though quite uncommon, are a sharp reminder that vaccinated people should wear masks while the virus is circulating widely.

www.nytimes.com

 

[dad4]

Are people getting as severely ill when they get the virus after being vaccinated as they are when they get the virus when they aren't?

From NY Times

One study found that just four out of 8,121 fully vaccinated employees at the University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center in Dallas became infected. The other found that only seven out of 14,990 workers at UC San Diego Health and the David Geffen School of Medicine at the University of California, Los Angeles tested positive two or more weeks after receiving a second dose of either the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna vaccines. Both reports, published on Tuesday in the New England Journal of Medicine, show how well the vaccines work in the real world, and during a period of intense transmission.

...

Only some of the virus-positive health workers in the California study showed symptoms, she said, and they tended to be mild, suggesting that the vaccines were protective. That echoes data from the vaccine trials indicating that breakthrough infections were mild and did not require hospitalizations. Some people had no symptoms at all, and were discovered only through testing in studies or as part of their medical care.

Vaccinated People Can Get Covid, but It’s Most Likely Very Rare (Published 2021)

“Breakthrough” cases, though quite uncommon, are a sharp reminder that vaccinated people should wear masks while the virus is circulating widely.

www.nytimes.com

Did you think I was arguing against vaccines?

Vaccines are great. When it’s your turn, get one.

Saw a decent summary on the question of vaccine resistant variants. Moderna appears to be partially effective against SA, CA, and Brazil. Lab effectiveness oniy. There is some suspicion that, in actual people, the reduced effectiveness may still be plenty to confer immunity.

Brief19 - Daily Review of Covid-19 Research and Policy

Brief19 is a daily executive summary of covid-19-related medical research, news, and public policy. It was founded and created by frontline emergency medicine physicians with expertise in medical research critique, health policy, and public policy.

brief19.com

 

[kickingandscreaming]

Did you think I was arguing against vaccines?

Vaccines are great. When it’s your turn, get one.

Saw a decent summary on the question of vaccine resistant variants. Moderna appears to be partially effective against SA, CA, and Brazil. Lab effectiveness oniy. There is some suspicion that, in actual people, the reduced effectiveness may still be plenty to confer immunity.

Brief19 - Daily Review of Covid-19 Research and Policy

Brief19 is a daily executive summary of covid-19-related medical research, news, and public policy. It was founded and created by frontline emergency medicine physicians with expertise in medical research critique, health policy, and public policy.

brief19.com

No, but you aren't differentiating between a case from someone who is vaccinated vs. someone who is not.

 

[crush]

I'm really getting concerned for some. I have never seen so much fear and just being paranoid. Self-isolation is making people nuts!! This poor lady works from home, alone!!!

 

[Hüsker Dü]

I'm really getting concerned for some. I have never seen so much fear and just being paranoid. Self-isolation is making people nuts!! This poor lady works from home, alone!!!

View attachment 10479

The vindictive nature of some that has surfaced and exploded in the last 4 years concerns me. I know a lot of people that think they are happy yet are always mad, many people who claim to be religious yet are filled with hate, many who say they are the epitome of being a patriot yet prefer foreign leaders over our own duly elected and make excuses for those who would destroy democracy, and America in the process, to accomplish their own selfish needs. Those are the things that concern me.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

The vindictive nature of some that has surfaced and exploded in the last 4 years concerns me. I know a lot of people that think they are happy yet are always mad, many people who claim to be religious yet are filled with hate, many who say they are the epitome of being a patriot yet prefer foreign leaders over our own duly elected and make excuses for those who would destroy democracy, and America in the process, to accomplish their own selfish needs. Those are the things that concern me.

You’ll be okay. But your concerns are noted. Give papa joe some time to deliver you from your mental bondage.

 

[crush]

The vindictive nature of some that has surfaced and exploded in the last 4 years concerns me. I know a lot of people that think they are happy yet are always mad, many people who claim to be religious yet are filled with hate, many who say they are the epitome of being a patriot yet prefer foreign leaders over our own duly elected and make excuses for those who would destroy democracy, and America in the process, to accomplish their own selfish needs. Those are the things that concern me.

EVERYONE needs to put their sexual orientation mandates, political views and religious views to the side and be American first. It's called "land of the free" for a reason. When my old "D" pals started their shit on Facebook after t won in 2016, it was on and it was war of words and control statements like this: "If you voted or think like t or believe in adoption, you are a maggot and need to kneel, especially if you're white. I play in the middle Husker. The left went ape shit and you know it. They cheated with the fake Rhino dudes who have enriched themselves to the loot. WHO loses Husker? The kids. I told you this was going to happen. If you pick D or R, you will live in rat shit. If you pick honor, openness, transparency, forgiveness and mercy, you will win. Simple choice before everyone of us today and the choice is the American way, you will be blessed. Love sees NO color. Teach with Mercy. Mercy triumphs over judgement!!!

 

[Hüsker Dü]

EVERYONE needs to put their sexual orientation mandates, political views and religious views to the side and be American first. It's called "land of the free" for a reason. When my old "D" pals started their shit on Facebook after t won in 2016, it was on and it was war of words and control statements like this: "If you voted or think like t or believe in adoption, you are a maggot and need to kneel, especially if you're white. I play in the middle Husker. The left went ape shit and you know it. They cheated with the fake Rhino dudes who have enriched themselves to the loot. WHO loses Husker? The kids. I told you this was going to happen. If you pick D or R, you will live in rat shit. If you pick honor, openness, transparency, forgiveness and mercy, you will win. Simple choice before everyone of us today and the choice is the American way, you will be blessed. Love sees NO color. Teach with Mercy. Mercy triumphs over judgement!!!

What’s a sexual orientation mandate? Believe in adoption? Must kneel? The “left went ape-shit” because trump was an obvious disaster starting with his American carnage speech (that was a head scratcher until he created the American carnage). You seem to be tossing some of your fears and angst into your post there.

 

[crush]

What’s a sexual orientation mandate? Believe in adoption? Must kneel? The “left went ape-shit” because trump was an obvious disaster starting with his American carnage speech (that was a head scratcher until he created the American carnage). You seem to be tossing some of your fears and angst into your post there.

Forget it Husker. I was talking about FB and all the hate in 2016. I got off long time ago. I saw best friends never talk again. I only care about more adoptions and less abortions. That's it. Each side thinks they knows best about sex. I say, buzz off and mind your own business. Stop it.

 

[Hüsker Dü]

Forget it Husker. I was talking about FB and all the hate in 2016. I got off long time ago. I saw best friends never talk again. I only care about more adoptions and less abortions. That's it. Each side thinks they knows best about sex. I say, buzz off and mind your own business. Stop it.

Like my pops use to say, “just worry about yourself, stay out of other people’s business”. The people that try to tell others how they should conduct their personal lives are usually the worst kind of hypocrites.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

Like my pops use to say, “just worry about yourself, stay out of other people’s business”. The people that try to tell others how they should conduct their personal lives are usually the worst kind of hypocrites.

Popspola taught you no such thing.

 

[Desert Hound]

Oakland teachers refuse to return to school, despite getting COVID vaccine priority

Public school teachers in Oakland, Calif., have opted not to return to the classroom until the mandatory start date in mid-April, despite priority vaccinations and cash incentives.

news.yahoo.com

 

[kickingandscreaming]

Alright, 7 weeks ago we were given a 6-14 week range of Osterholm's Armageddon ("OA"). As stated last week, we have flattened out in cases and now hospitalizations are only dropping slightly. That isn't good news. However, we are nowhere near anything like OA. Deaths are still dropping like a rock, but they typically lag hospitalizations by a couple of weeks. If deaths keep dropping like this for two more weeks, I think it's pretty much done - no OA. By then we'll be at about 30% vaccinated (24.5% now). If J&J comes through in the volumes expected starting in April, we'll likely be vaccinating news folks at 1%/day. By the end of April, we'll be nearing 60% vaccinated with at least their first shot.

8 weeks into the 6-14 week range for Osterholm's Armageddon ("OA"). Cases are rising overall - driven by the northeast and upper midwest. Hospitalizations are flat with deaths still decreasing, but showing some flattening. Not great news overall, but definitely not anything close to OA yet. We have 6 more weeks to see if he knew what he was talking about and see if he should take the advice @dad4 and realize this is biology and not physics so he should stay out of the prediction business.

“The fact is that the surge that is likely to occur with this new variant from England is going to happen in the next six to 14 weeks. And, if we see that happen, which my 45 years in the trenches tell me we will, we are going to see something like we have not seen yet in this country,” Osterholm said.

NYTimes Vaccine tracker has changed and appears to exclude certain states now. CDC has a nice summary I found that I actually prefer for an overall perspective. Looks like we'll be at over 30% with at least one dose by the end of March. The US is averaging over 3 million shots/day over the last 5 days. J&J is getting into the mix more now as well. It's good to see over 72% of the population over 65 is vaccinated already.

COVID Data Tracker

CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.

covid.cdc.gov

 

[Desert Hound]

So @dad4 was sure bad thins would happen when TX opened up all biz and dropped masks.

We are not yet at a month yet...but getting close. Lets see what is happening so far.

The start is here.



As of today we are here.

Not much of a difference.



But let us take a closer look just to be sure. Dad the stat guy was sure opening biz and no more masks would lead to a spike in cases.

Lets see what the trend is.

Well cases continue to fall. Crazy right? @dad4 the guy that claims he understands stats whiffed again. Why? Because as usual he fails to look at real world data. If the model tells you one thing, but the real world data tells you another, it is time to re-evaluate.

In the end a year in, based on actual DATA we can say TX handled the crisis far better vs CA. For starters kids were in school in person all year and go from there.

 

[Desert Hound]

The US is averaging over 3 million shots/day over the last 5 days. J&J is getting into the mix more now as well. It's good to see over 72% of the population over 65 is vaccinated already.

Since that is the group of people that have accounted for close to roughly 80% of all deaths...with them getting vaccinated, the crisis is over.

 

[kickingandscreaming]

So @dad4 was sure bad thins would happen when TX opened up all biz and dropped masks.

We are not yet at a month yet...but getting close. Lets see what is happening so far.

The start is here.

View attachment 10488

As of today we are here.

Not much of a difference.

View attachment 10489

But let us take a closer look just to be sure. Dad the stat guy was sure opening biz and no more masks would lead to a spike in cases.

Lets see what the trend is.

Well cases continue to fall. Crazy right? @dad4 the guy that claims he understands stats whiffed again. Why? Because as usual he fails to look at real world data. If the model tells you one thing, but the real world data tells you another, it is time to re-evaluate.

In the end a year in, based on actual DATA we can say TX handled the crisis far better vs CA. For starters kids were in school in person all year and go from there.

View attachment 10490

No, no, no, Hound. You need to compare the third Monday of each month in the US to the second Tuesday of the prior month in the UK and the fourth Wednesday of 2 months prior for the rest of the EU. Make sure you adjust for time differences in all places, afternoon tea in the UK, siestas in Spain and the two-hour lunches in France. Then you'll see that masks are almost as effective as vaccines.

 

[kickingandscreaming]

Since that is the group of people that have accounted for close to roughly 80% of all deaths...with them getting vaccinated, the crisis is over.

Overall, it should put the rate of death down to less than 1/3 of what it was / case.

(0.8 deaths)*(0.276 not vaccinated) + (0.2 deaths) *(0.837 not vaccinated)
0.22 + 0.17 = 0.39

However, among those < 65, It's highly likely those closer to 65 are vaccinated at a significantly higher rate and, of course, those people will have a higher mortality rate.

This does assume that those getting vaccinated and those that are not are equally likely to have a negative outcome from a case. I'm not convinced that is so.

 

[dad4]

So @dad4 was sure bad thins would happen when TX opened up all biz and dropped masks.

We are not yet at a month yet...but getting close. Lets see what is happening so far.

The start is here.

View attachment 10488

As of today we are here.

Not much of a difference.

View attachment 10489

But let us take a closer look just to be sure. Dad the stat guy was sure opening biz and no more masks would lead to a spike in cases.

Lets see what the trend is.

Well cases continue to fall. Crazy right? @dad4 the guy that claims he understands stats whiffed again. Why? Because as usual he fails to look at real world data. If the model tells you one thing, but the real world data tells you another, it is time to re-evaluate.

In the end a year in, based on actual DATA we can say TX handled the crisis far better vs CA. For starters kids were in school in person all year and go from there.

View attachment 10490

Would you mind not putting words in my mouth?

It is so fucking rude.

If you think I said something, go find the quote, reply to it.