Forget it Husker. I was talking about FB and all the hate in 2016. I got off long time ago. I saw best friends never talk again. I only care about more adoptions and less abortions. That's it. Each side thinks they knows best about sex. I say, buzz off and mind your own business. Stop it.
Bad News Thread
- Thread starter kickingandscreaming
- Start date
Hüsker Dü
DA
Like my pops use to say, “just worry about yourself, stay out of other people’s business”. The people that try to tell others how they should conduct their personal lives are usually the worst kind of hypocrites.
Bruddah IZ
DA
Popspola taught you no such thing.
Desert Hound
DA
Oakland teachers refuse to return to school, despite getting COVID vaccine priority
Public school teachers in Oakland, Calif., have opted not to return to the classroom until the mandatory start date in mid-April, despite priority vaccinations and cash incentives.
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
8 weeks into the 6-14 week range for Osterholm's Armageddon ("OA"). Cases are rising overall - driven by the northeast and upper midwest. Hospitalizations are flat with deaths still decreasing, but showing some flattening. Not great news overall, but definitely not anything close to OA yet. We have 6 more weeks to see if he knew what he was talking about and see if he should take the advice @dad4 and realize this is biology and not physics so he should stay out of the prediction business.
“The fact is that the surge that is likely to occur with this new variant from England is going to happen in the next six to 14 weeks. And, if we see that happen, which my 45 years in the trenches tell me we will, we are going to see something like we have not seen yet in this country,” Osterholm said.
NYTimes Vaccine tracker has changed and appears to exclude certain states now. CDC has a nice summary I found that I actually prefer for an overall perspective. Looks like we'll be at over 30% with at least one dose by the end of March. The US is averaging over 3 million shots/day over the last 5 days. J&J is getting into the mix more now as well. It's good to see over 72% of the population over 65 is vaccinated already.
COVID Data Tracker
CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.
covid.cdc.gov
Desert Hound
DA
So @dad4 was sure bad thins would happen when TX opened up all biz and dropped masks.
We are not yet at a month yet...but getting close. Lets see what is happening so far.
The start is here.
As of today we are here.
Not much of a difference.
But let us take a closer look just to be sure. Dad the stat guy was sure opening biz and no more masks would lead to a spike in cases.
Lets see what the trend is.
Well cases continue to fall. Crazy right? @dad4 the guy that claims he understands stats whiffed again. Why? Because as usual he fails to look at real world data. If the model tells you one thing, but the real world data tells you another, it is time to re-evaluate.
In the end a year in, based on actual DATA we can say TX handled the crisis far better vs CA. For starters kids were in school in person all year and go from there.
We are not yet at a month yet...but getting close. Lets see what is happening so far.
The start is here.
As of today we are here.
Not much of a difference.
But let us take a closer look just to be sure. Dad the stat guy was sure opening biz and no more masks would lead to a spike in cases.
Lets see what the trend is.
Well cases continue to fall. Crazy right? @dad4 the guy that claims he understands stats whiffed again. Why? Because as usual he fails to look at real world data. If the model tells you one thing, but the real world data tells you another, it is time to re-evaluate.
In the end a year in, based on actual DATA we can say TX handled the crisis far better vs CA. For starters kids were in school in person all year and go from there.
Desert Hound
DA
Since that is the group of people that have accounted for close to roughly 80% of all deaths...with them getting vaccinated, the crisis is over.
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
No, no, no, Hound. You need to compare the third Monday of each month in the US to the second Tuesday of the prior month in the UK and the fourth Wednesday of 2 months prior for the rest of the EU. Make sure you adjust for time differences in all places, afternoon tea in the UK, siestas in Spain and the two-hour lunches in France. Then you'll see that masks are almost as effective as vaccines.
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
Overall, it should put the rate of death down to less than 1/3 of what it was / case.
(0.8 deaths)*(0.276 not vaccinated) + (0.2 deaths) *(0.837 not vaccinated)
0.22 + 0.17 = 0.39
However, among those < 65, It's highly likely those closer to 65 are vaccinated at a significantly higher rate and, of course, those people will have a higher mortality rate.
This does assume that those getting vaccinated and those that are not are equally likely to have a negative outcome from a case. I'm not convinced that is so.
Would you mind not putting words in my mouth?
It is so fucking rude.
If you think I said something, go find the quote, reply to it.
You could actually do some analysis instead of just mocking it, you know.
The original argument was comparing a known 70% effective mask against a 70% effective vaccine which did not yet exist.
I have not seen anyone argue that a 70% effective mask is better than a 95% effective vaccine- now that we know we have one.
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
In fairness, I said, "almost", but J&J is about 72% effective in the US, right? Basically the same as the claim of the mask at 70%.
How Effective Is the Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 Vaccine? Here’s What You Should Know
We asked UCSF infectious disease expert Monica Gandhi, MD, MPH, to unpack some of the big questions around vaccine science, such as how the Johnson & Johnson vaccine differs, how well it works against the new variants, and whether you should be worried about transmitting the virus after vaccination.
So, if someone is telling me this is the case, that means from the time we started mask policy in CA, if we would have replaced masks with everyone being vaccinated by the J&J shot (and given two weeks), we would expect the same number of new hospitalizations and deaths. Is that the claim?
That’s what I thought. 70% is 70%. I was wrong.In fairness, I said, "almost", but J&J is about 72% effective in the US, right? Basically the same as the claim of the mask at 70%.
How Effective Is the Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 Vaccine? Here’s What You Should Know
We asked UCSF infectious disease expert Monica Gandhi, MD, MPH, to unpack some of the big questions around vaccine science, such as how the Johnson & Johnson vaccine differs, how well it works against the new variants, and whether you should be worried about transmitting the virus after vaccination.www.ucsf.edu
So, if someone is telling me this is the case, that means from the time we started mask policy in CA, if we would have replaced masks with everyone being vaccinated by the J&J shot (and given two weeks), we would expect the same number of new hospitalizations and deaths. Is that the claim?
The mask‘s 70% doesn’t apply to in home transmission. So the mask ends up acting more like a 45% reduction. (70% reduction outside the home, 0% reduction inside the home. Geometric mean gives you 45% reduction.)
To get an effective 70% with masks, you’ve have to have a solid plan to quarantine infected people outside the home. We did not have that in CA.
That said, LA managed a variant covid better than most states managed plain covid. So something was helping, and it happened too early to be the vaccine.
Hüsker Dü
DA
Much of Texas, many, many businesses are going on with full Covid-19 precautions. Masks, social distancing and limiting occupancy. Texans aren’t stupid, but their politically motivated governor is acting like he is.
Glitterhater
SILVER ELITE
I was going to comment something similar but stopped- only because what I had was just anectdotal from a friend living in San Antonio.
She is a realtor there and says all her clients still wear masks- and her neighborhood stores are mostly full of masked people too.
Hüsker Dü
DA
My wife is there now. I have family and friends literally all over Texas and get the same reports even from the trumpiest of them.
Desert Hound
DA
So the bars and restaurants are not open 100%?
Trick question they are.
While many will still wear a mask, many will stop. Many biz have/will stop enforcing masks. Further they have no capacity restrictions.
And what do we see?
Declining cases.
@dad4 specifically said it was not a good idea. As we look at the numbers...the DATA tells a different story.
Desert Hound
DA
You said it was a bad idea. Why would it be a bad idea? Increases the spread right?
What does the data show?
It shows that again your concern was misplaced.
What part of that did I get wrong?
What this tells me is that people (in majority) are actually smarter than we give them credit for and will often do the right thing without the government having to tell them to do it.
Desert Hound
DA
Abbott is being a political twit.
He has the data on masks, he knows they work, and he repeals the mask rule anyway.
Why? He needs a distraction. Repealing a mask mandate is easier than talking about the near complete failure of the electric grid and natural gas infrastructure.
So Abbott repeals the mask rule to distract people from their broken water pipes.
He has the data on masks, he knows they work, and he repeals the mask rule anyway.
Why? He needs a distraction. Repealing a mask mandate is easier than talking about the near complete failure of the electric grid and natural gas infrastructure.
So Abbott repeals the mask rule to distract people from their broken water pipes.
So above we see you think it is a bad idea.
To be fair you don't like the idea of people doing much of anything
That said have we seen any spike in cases due to lifting the mask mandate or allowing restaurants, bars, biz to be at 100% capacity?
Clearly you would not have allowed it.
But now as the data comes in what do we see?
There is no issue is there, correct?
I calculate that the trailing 7 day daily average of cases has decreased 50% since Texas reopened 100% and removed the mask mandates (5,617 daily to 2,831). That's about the extent of my math abilities. What does the huge decrease prove? Not sure, but it certainly casts substantial doubt on the effectiveness of lockdown mandates and/or implies that vaccines may be effective.
Now, I'm sure some epidemiologist, statistician, research analyst could go into his/her controlled lab bubble and apply all sorts of tests and regression analyses to prove something entirely different, but ultimately you can't question real world results. It doesn't matter how great you are at math or studying viruses you can't change reality.
Now, I'm sure some epidemiologist, statistician, research analyst could go into his/her controlled lab bubble and apply all sorts of tests and regression analyses to prove something entirely different, but ultimately you can't question real world results. It doesn't matter how great you are at math or studying viruses you can't change reality.