Bad News Thread

Desert Hound said:
So the bars and restaurants are not open 100%?

Trick question they are.

While many will still wear a mask, many will stop. Many biz have/will stop enforcing masks. Further they have no capacity restrictions.

And what do we see?

Declining cases.

@dad4 specifically said it was not a good idea. As we look at the numbers...the DATA tells a different story.
Click to expand...

I think people and businesses will still do the mask thing until they announce general vaccination for people (Biden said May 1) and a few weeks after that. People right now just trying to be courteous for those that haven't been vaccinated. People are smart and will react to incentives outside of govt mandates.

World roundup: Germany's numbers still rising. Seems like the Nordics might be at peak. Belgium's plateau has begun to rise but at a slower pace than that of its neighbors. Spain has plateaued lending some credence to the latitude theory: that the third wave is moving downwards from higher to lower latitudes. Canada is rising at north of 5000 cases per day still. Japan has begun a 3rd wave. South Korea is stubbornly plateaued at 500 cases per day and has been for awhile. Los Angeles County is plateaued at about 350 cases per day. Ventura County is seeing a small uptick.
Mexico still in decline but South America (including Chile which has done so well with vaccines) still all mostly rising. South Africa despite supposedly the worst of the variants still flat as they head into mid fall. .
 
Grace T. said:
I think people and businesses will still do the mask thing until they announce general vaccination for people (Biden said May 1) and a few weeks after that. People right now just trying to be courteous for those that haven't been vaccinated. People are smart and will react to incentives outside of govt mandates.

World roundup: Germany's numbers still rising. Seems like the Nordics might be at peak. Belgium's plateau has begun to rise but at a slower pace than that of its neighbors. Spain has plateaued lending some credence to the latitude theory: that the third wave is moving downwards from higher to lower latitudes. Canada is rising at north of 5000 cases per day still. Japan has begun a 3rd wave. South Korea is stubbornly plateaued at 500 cases per day and has been for awhile. Los Angeles County is plateaued at about 350 cases per day. Ventura County is seeing a small uptick.
Mexico still in decline but South America (including Chile which has done so well with vaccines) still all mostly rising. South Africa despite supposedly the worst of the variants still flat as they head into mid fall. .
Click to expand...

In the US Michigan, NY and New Jersey seem to be doing the worst. Michigan might be the model for what the 3rd wave looks like: rising cases, rise in hospitalizations, slight rise in ICU levels, deaths have had a very small uptick. Michigan has vaccinated 74% of seniors with at least 1 shot. Question then becomes what do people have tolerance for.

www.worldometers.info

Michigan COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Michigan COVID-19 Coronavirus update by county with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, current active cases, recoveries, historical data, trends, projections, and timeline.
www.worldometers.info www.worldometers.info
 
Desert Hound said:
You said it was a bad idea. Why would it be a bad idea? Increases the spread right?

What does the data show?

It shows that again your concern was misplaced.

What part of that did I get wrong?
Click to expand...
There is a difference between “a bad idea” and “will result in March cases being above February cases”.

Slowing the rate of case decline also counts as a bad outcome.

What does the data show? The data shows that masks reduce the spread of disease, and that restaurants increase the spread of disease. Studied, published, and peer reviewed.

This does not rely on some weak n=2 comparison between the Texas daily case rate per 100K and the California daily case rate per 100K.

If you really want the weak n=3 comparison: comparison happens to show the CA cases at about half the TX cases and a third the level of FL cases. So, TX and FL are getting worse outcomes, but the real evidence is not those three numbers. Their rate of decline has been slowed. And, by now, stalled.
Desert Hound said:
Abbott is being a political twit.​
​
He has the data on masks, he knows they work, and he repeals the mask rule anyway.​
​
Why? He needs a distraction. Repealing a mask mandate is easier than talking about the near complete failure of the electric grid and natural gas infrastructure.​
​
So Abbott repeals the mask rule to distract people from their broken water pipes.​

So above we see you think it is a bad idea.

To be fair you don't like the idea of people doing much of anything ;)

That said have we seen any spike in cases due to lifting the mask mandate or allowing restaurants, bars, biz to be at 100% capacity?

Clearly you would not have allowed it.

But now as the data comes in what do we see?

There is no issue is there, correct?
Click to expand...
Abbott was being a political twit. He was trying to distract people from the broken water pipes that resulted when the weakly regulated natural gas pipelines froze. And, to the extent that Texans are wearing their masks less, they are suffering higher rates of covid infection than they would otherwise have seen.

Where, in any of that, does it say that the result will be a spike?

As far as I can tell, the result is a stable level of new covid infections. This is a worse result than the exponential decline we saw back in Jan/Feb. This, despite higher vaccination rates and worse weather. We should be seeing a faster exponential decline. Instead we are seeing a plateau.
 
dad4 said:
As far as I can tell, the result is a stable level of new covid infections. This is a worse result than the exponential decline we saw back in Jan/Feb. This, despite higher vaccination rates and worse weather. We should be seeing a faster exponential decline. Instead we are seeing a plateau.
Click to expand...

FYI, this is also what we are seeing in Chile despite a great vaccinate rate, worsening weather, and a new round of lockdowns.
 
Desert Hound said:
Since that is the group of people that have accounted for close to roughly 80% of all deaths...with them getting vaccinated, the crisis is over.
Click to expand...
all restrictions should have been removed by last May 2020. We already had all the data we needed. But no, the self appointed experts lined up behind Fauci the Fraud like the sheep that they are.
 
Hüsker Dü said:
Much of Texas, many, many businesses are going on with full Covid-19 precautions. Masks, social distancing and limiting occupancy. Texans aren’t stupid, but their politically motivated governor is acting like he is.
Click to expand...
So much for not telling others how to live their lives. Isn't that your battle cry? You people crack me up.
 
dad4 said:
What does the data show?
Click to expand...
Lab data or real world results? Real world results clearly shows that there is zero correlation, let alone causation, between mandates, or lack of thereof, and Covid infections. You don't need a math or epidemiology degree to understand that concept (although it apparently helps if you don't have that degree)

Texas daily infections have decreased 50% since all restrictions were removed. However, I'm not claiming that removing restrictions works in reducing the virus, and I'm not cherry picking Texas to prove my point because that's intellectually dishonest. There simply is just no correlation either way in regards to restrictions. That's why its so painfully obvious that you can't approach the problem with Covid myopathy and have to consider the overall costs and benefits.
 
Bruddah IZ said:
all restrictions should have been removed by last May 2020. We already had all the data we needed. But no, the self appointed experts lined up behind Fauci the Fraud like the sheep that they are.
Click to expand...
Had we removed all restrictions in May, 2020, how many additional deaths would have resulted?

Or is that not your problem? (Hope you don't look like your avatar. That avatar is in a high risk group. )
 
dad4 said:
Had we removed all restrictions in May, 2020, how many additional deaths would have resulted?

Or is that not your problem? (Hope you don't look like your avatar. That avatar is in a high risk group. )
Click to expand...

Not even Sweden removed ALL restrictions. It also doesn't prohibit us from using restrictions smartly (when they are needed to reduce case loads so the hospital systems don't collapse). Again, the assumption that an average unmarried, living alone 20 year old is going to go a year plus without hooking up is just an absurd ask on it's face of it.

But at least now you are looking at the margin benefits. The question isn't could we have stopped 1/2 million deaths....short of Australian style lockdowns (which would have smashed both D and R sacred cows, and the US Constitution), we couldn't. The question is what portion of those deaths are being averted by a particular policy. You then have to compare it to the deaths and other costs created by the applicable NPI.

With masks, you seem to think no cost (or very little cost) for a huge benefit. For indoor dining, you don't seem to put much weight on the impact on business owners, but also see a huge benefit. Where people are challenging you on is what weight you give both the costs and the benefits in light of the real world results which have taken place.
 
Desert Hound said:
So the bars and restaurants are not open 100%?

Trick question they are.

While many will still wear a mask, many will stop. Many biz have/will stop enforcing masks. Further they have no capacity restrictions.

And what do we see?

Declining cases.

@dad4 specifically said it was not a good idea. As we look at the numbers...the DATA tells a different story.
Click to expand...
I have no clue about bars/restaurants there, (but it sounds like you do,) we were just talking about the day to day. She is beyond the bar hopping days, (ah, youth!) and for restaurants she does take out or sits outside. Again, just one take from one individual. Wearing a mask doesn't bother me personally, (or her,) so until I'm vaccinated i'll mask up if I'm indoors and it seems stuffy.
 
Glitterhater said:
have no clue about bars/restaurants there, (but it sounds like you do,
Click to expand...
Well remember over the past yr @dad4 has always blamed the slightest opening of bars/restaurants as the reason we see spikes.

So logically I wonder why he is silent now.

Further just a few days ago he blamed a state opening up their bars with a rise and when I asked him why other states who have done the same but seen no rise he is silent on.

If as he claims certain things are obvious, why can't he point to successes?

He was unhappy TX opened up, implying that would lead to rising cases. And yet we see the opposite. At some point shouldn't his and others theories match up with real world data?

If you theories don't match up with actual data, you need to re evaluate. @dad4 has failed to do so.. and rather consistently.
 
Desert Hound said:
Well remember over the past yr @dad4 has always blamed the slightest opening of bars/restaurants as the reason we see spikes.

So logically I wonder why he is silent now.

Further just a few days ago he blamed a state opening up their bars with a rise and when I asked him why other states who have done the same but seen no rise he is silent on.

If as he claims certain things are obvious, why can't he point to successes?

He was unhappy TX opened up, implying that would lead to rising cases. And yet we see the opposite. At some point shouldn't his and others theories match up with real world data?

If you theories don't match up with actual data, you need to re evaluate. @dad4 has failed to do so.. and rather consistently.
Click to expand...
CDC ran the numbers. The data matches up extremely well: p<0.01, highly significant.

It remains a stupid idea to take off your mask and sit in a room full of other people eating and talking. Go figure.

Don’t blame me if you don’t like the results. Take it up with the CDC.

And, if you think you have some really clever data analysis argument that proves CDC wrong, submit it to an epidemiology journal and tell us when you get published.
 
Kicker4Life said:
What this tells me is that people (in majority) are actually smarter than we give them credit for and will often do the right thing without the government having to tell them to do it.
Click to expand...
They are following the science and the government directives. Who do you think told them about social distancing, masks and other precautions in the first place? They didn’t build that by themselves.
 
dad4 said:
Had we removed all restrictions in May, 2020, how many additional deaths would have resulted?
Click to expand...

Doesn't matter. Deaths aren't driving the cowardly hysteria and fraud behind public policy. And they were never going to drive public policy. It had to be cases using the murderously inadequate PCR test.


Nature has been doing gain-of-function virome since its origin. And so we


shouldn't be afraid of gain-of-function. No, that's what viruses are. They are all


there to increase the adaptability and biodiversity on the planet and we happen


to be able to be adapted by that. And so what I'm describing here is that we


have 12,800 new genetic updates since 1976, in the last 40 years, and some of


those we've taken up and others we've rejected from the human DNA.


And so when we say yes, there was a pandemic, then we can ask the clinical


things around what pattern did it occur? Did we have excess death this year or


not? And the short answer to that is if you look over a seven-year trend the year


before we had this narrative of a pandemic, we had the lowest respiratory


mortality than we had in seven years. And so there was a pent up population


that didn't die last year. That's going to die of respiratory causes the following


year. The CDC, NIH, WHO knew that data. We didn't because they publish their


data two years behind typically. And so we didn't see that until retrospective


now, but we know the powers that be, that are watching these numbers must


have known that we had a low respiratory death rate that year.


And so we could have predicted that we would have an increased respiratory


mortality in 2019, 2020 in the northern hemisphere. And then later in 2020 and


into 2020 in the southern hemisphere, we would have this increased respiratory


mortality. And so it's interesting that, that's all unfolding now and we're blaming


coronavirus when, in fact, we could have pegged it on any respiratory virus


cause it was going to happen. We were going to have a catch-up year. --Zach Bush M.D.
 
dad4 said:
It remains a stupid idea to take off your mask and sit in a room full of other people eating and talking. Go figure.
Click to expand...
The reason mask manufacturers have a disclaimer, about mitigating contraction of infectious diseases, on mask packaging is that OSHA rules state that they must. OSHA has not rated mask to stop virus's. Mask mandates are a willful OSHA violation punishable by fine, jail, and job termination if the mandate caused injury or illnesses. Go figure. The government disobeying their own rules... AGAIN.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top