Bad News Thread

dad4 said:
Several magnitudes?

Nice rhetoric, but do you have any evidence that one thing is 10^4 times as good as another?

I do not think that phrase means what you think it does.

Masks cause about a 70% decrease in transmission. 2 dose vaccines seem likely to cause around a 95% decrease.

Less than one order of magnitude. Not "several".
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Where have masks caused a 70% reduction in transmission?
 
dad4 said:
The problem is that you do not have the stats background to be able see it. Until last week, you still wanted to do a policy comparison between 3 different states with 3 different variants of the virus. That is not the recommendation of a competent statistician.
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I don't have a problem with stats. I am looking at 3 states with 90 million people total, and it is hard to see much daylight between the 3.

You were certain based on stats that those states would blow up (TX/FL). And yet a yr in they are now the same.

And you made a pronouncement that TX was in trouble (based on you understanding of stats) of eliminating masks, opening biz.

I made the statement that we won't see an increase in cases and as a matter of fact they would still be at about the same spot as CA.

Your excuse now is that CA has a variant that is different. Either way the point is you won't see cases in TX go up. Your stats say yes. My bet is based on watching the data is that in less than 2 weeks ( which puts us at a month) we won't see any rise.

What then pray tell will be your new goalpost?
 
dad4 said:
79% on USS Roosevelt. 70%, in the CDC nationwide county by county regression.

Only applies in transmission between homes, as Grace noted.
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I suspect your upcoming excuse about TX coming up shortly is that the reason of no rise but a continuing decline is the vaccine.

And if that is the case, that means the Gov understood the vaccine could and should have that result which is why they opened up.

You on the other hand seem to be perpetually worried about variants now and use that as a reason to continue with failed policy
 
kickingandscreaming said:
How did they differentiate mask-wearing from distancing? I'd appreciate any links.
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The Roosevelt study is misleading because it found that those wearing masks were generally more cautious (for example, avoiding common areas). I agree that being more cautious is a good way to reduce virus transmission.

The county by county analysis has also come under heavy criticism, is a bit of CDC propaganda put out to justify their priors, but the explanation as to why is somewhat beyond my skills. One key criticism, though, is that it examined state wide mandates, but examined county data, even though counties varied by policies and severity of mask mandates (e.g. Los Angeles v. Bakersfield....Miami v. Tallahassee). The rebuttal to the county by county analysis is that some people have done side by side comparisons of counties with mask mandates and neighboring ones without....it controls for things like variants and state mandates as a result....there hasn't been much difference between such neighboring counties, which tend to rise and fall at roughly the same time.
 
Desert Hound said:
Aren't they a visible sign it is OK to hang out? I think you have it backwards in terms of what many think regarding masks and socializing.
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Kind of the opposite in my experience.

The people with chin straps want to get close. The people with masks on 24/7 want you to stay away.
 
Grace T. said:
Meh. He made a technical point about what magnitude means in math when I was using it colloquially. He tried to rebut a self-evident point (that vaccines have the capability of ending the current crisis, if not the actual pandemic, while masks have utterly failed in that regard despite very rigorous mandates such as in Spain) by using said technicality and then went into crazy land by making a point that masks and vaccines are roughly equivalent (which he later had to clarify and back down on). Not exactly his, or your, finest hour....of the many stumbles, that overreach was probably one of the worst because it puts him in the same crazy train as "masks are as good as vaccines". Sorry if the crazy train caught my attention more.
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Orders of magnitude more?
 
dad4 said:
The problem is that you do not have the stats background to be able see it. Until last week, you still wanted to do a policy comparison between 3 different states with 3 different variants of the virus. That is not the recommendation of a competent statistician.
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You don't say.
 
dad4 said:
We never get anywhere. 12 months in and team virus is still arguing against mask mandates.
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You don't have the background in stats, public policy, and epidemiology to get anywhere beyond the last 12 months. You've totally ignored the 12,000 plus global pandemics we've had since 1978.
 
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