Bad News Thread

[Desert Hound]

Excellent point! My feeling is that we’ve vaccinated a very large pet of the most vulnerable (65+).

80% or so of all deaths are in the 65 and older group. So yes when they are vaccinated this thing is effectively over.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

All he does is lie and the worse kinds of lies because he uses numbers to lie and when his numbers look like shit, he moves the goal post

He's having the goal post stump grinded down as I type this.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

Creepy Doc Billy Says He Knows When the World’s Coronavirus Crisis Will Be Over – Not This Year.

The Microsoft founder said the health crisis has been an “incredible tragedy,” but one bright spot has been the arrival of vaccines. “By the end of 2022 we should be basically completely back to normal,” Gates said in an interview

A picture is worth something and this little boy knows WTF is going on. "Get that crap away from me." Look at his eyes. This is insane!!!

View attachment 10472

Speaking of Bozo's.

 

[crush]

Speaking of Bozo's.

Bozo with poison needles is not good Brudda man, not good at all. TGIF!!! Make it a great day To all my socal pals, the weather beginning tomorrow will be amazing and perfect the next 7 days, so go get the sun and all the Vitamin D you can fill up on. DNA Light Rays ((DLR)) is looking to share the love and the light. Trust me. Also, stop eating meat for 7 days. Fruits, Veggies and some Nuts. Water and more water. Trust me. Also, journal down all your misdeeds ((sins)) and confess to you know who. If their is a special one you betrayed or did naughty ((lie)), confess and get healed. Put all relationships on da line. Expose and purge all the toxic shit you took on over all the years and I swear you will lose weight, feel better and probably keep going on The Crush Crash Course Confession Class. True joy & happiness can only come from forgiveness and forgiving others

 

[dad4]

We could have a real discussion if both sides were willing to accept the results of the research that has been done so far.

Masks work. Vaccines work. Bars and restaurants spread covid. Multi family households spread covid. Outdoor activities are far safer than indoor. Shool shutdowns are very bad for learning. Some variants are partially vaccine resistant, but we don't know how much. Unemployment is far higher in CA, lower in FL and NZ. The vast majority of negative outcomes are among the elderly.

Those are the starting points for a decent discussion. And not one of them is the least bit controversial among the people who study these things.

 

[Desert Hound]

 

[texanincali]

We could have a real discussion if both sides were willing to accept the results of the research that has been done so far.

Masks work. Vaccines work. Bars and restaurants spread covid. Multi family households spread covid. Outdoor activities are far safer than indoor. Shool shutdowns are very bad for learning. Some variants are partially vaccine resistant, but we don't know how much. Unemployment is far higher in CA, lower in FL and NZ. The vast majority of negative outcomes are among the elderly.

Those are the starting points for a decent discussion. And not one of them is the least bit controversial among the people who study these things.

This is the issue though. Both sides can find research that seems to confirm their points of view. There are mask research findings that cite what you quote in here and there are others that say masks do relatively nothing. Vaccines seem to be good, yet there are 40% of people that won't be taking them until further information and data is available. About the only thing people will agree on is social distancing and outdoor gatherings are better than close contact and indoor gatherings.

What I am interested in seeing is if masks become mandated, or if those who support masks so diligently are willing to keep wearing them when Covid is basically gone (if that ever occurs). Masks have been the calling card of those who will use them as THE reason that flu has virtually been wiped out. If that is truly the case, and we have the ability to save tens of thousands of lives each year, will people continue to wear masks? It also begs the question of our doctors as to why masks haven't been used in the past to prevent flu transmission. Either they have asleep at the wheel for decades and could have prevented the millions of flu deaths, or masks really aren't the reason flu is gone. Will be interesting to see this play out.

 

[kickingandscreaming]

Excellent point! My feeling is that we’ve vaccinated a very large pet of the most vulnerable (65+).

Agreed. My primary concern is that the transmission rate is very different between different population groups and where the rate is highest, the lowest proportion of people are getting vaccinated.

 

[kickingandscreaming]

We could have a real discussion if both sides were willing to accept the results of the research that has been done so far.

Masks work. Vaccines work. Bars and restaurants spread covid. Multi family households spread covid. Outdoor activities are far safer than indoor. Shool shutdowns are very bad for learning. Some variants are partially vaccine resistant, but we don't know how much. Unemployment is far higher in CA, lower in FL and NZ. The vast majority of negative outcomes are among the elderly.

Those are the starting points for a decent discussion. And not one of them is the least bit controversial among the people who study these things.

You say "masks", but you actually include social distancing and all the associated problems it causes economically and emotionally. Then you compare it to a vaccine. I can't take your argument seriously. As I have stated many times, I wear a mask when I am going to be around people, but it's a virus. People wear low-value masks and don't always wear them - including our leaders. If that's not part of the equation, you aren't living in the real world. You don't have to wear a vaccine properly and socially distance for a vaccine to work. Enjoy using math to mislead people.

 

[kickingandscreaming]

Either they have asleep at the wheel for decades and could have prevented the millions of flu deaths, or masks really aren't the reason flu is gone. Will be interesting to see this play out.

Again, all the behaviors that have changed in our country and "masks" get all the credit. Cult @dad4 adds another follower.

 

[dad4]

You say "masks", but you actually include social distancing and all the associated problems it causes economically and emotionally. Then you compare it to a vaccine. I can't take your argument seriously. As I have stated many times, I wear a mask when I am going to be around people, but it's a virus. People wear low-value masks and don't always wear them - including our leaders. If that's not part of the equation, you aren't living in the real world. You don't have to wear a vaccine properly and socially distance for a vaccine to work. Enjoy using math to mislead people.

You've forgotten the vaccine comparison came when we didn't know if any vaccine would reach 70%.

The 70% estimate is from the real world. It is 70%, as used in the real world.

Errors in fit, behavior adaptations, and so on are real concerns, but they are already baked into the 70% estimate.

Grace's point about in home transmission makes a bigger difference. The vaccine gets its full power in that setting, but masks and distance get nothing.

In some sense, it means any vaccine reduction should get counted twice. In a chain of 2 transmissions, one at home and one outside, the vaccine reduces both. So a 70% effective vaccine reduces the chain to 9% of what it would have been. (.3*.3).

Similarly, a behavior change reduction should get counted once. A 70% effective behavior change reduces the chain to 30% what it would have been.(.3*1)

In effect, a 70% effective mask is similar to a 45% effective vaccine. Not as good as J&J, but not zero, either.

 

[dad4]

Again, all the behaviors that have changed in our country and "masks" get all the credit. Cult @dad4 adds another follower.

Cultist Dad4 gives distance and closures some of the credit for the mild flu season. I don't think we would want to repeat those, even to get rid of the flu.

-Buzz

 

[Bruddah IZ]

Let's begin with some news out of forbidden Sweden. According to Reuters, "Sweden, which has shunned the strict lockdowns that have choked much of the global economy, emerged from 2020 with a smaller increase in its overall mortality rate than most European countries, an analysis of official data sources showed." The sources studied included 30 countries. Some 21 of them had higher excess-death percentages than Sweden. And then we get this interesting final sentence: "Sweden’s official COVID-19 death toll is more than 13,000, although some people may have died from other causes than the disease." Wait, what's that? Deaths attributed to COVID-19 may actually result from "other causes than the disease"? We're allowed to say that now? Now, to Arizona, where the governor is getting raked over the coals by local politicians and some doctors for lifting statewide COVID restrictions. You know everything they're going to say, so I won't bother repeating any of it. These same people, as the heroic Ian Miller points out, repeatedly demanded interventions, never got them, the curve fell dramatically without them, and nobody ever followed up or apologized or wondered how that could have happened:

(Source: nytimes .com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html) Also courtesy of Ian, Rhode Island won all kinds of praise for its draconian policies, but then no second thoughts or nuance or any kind when cases rose 2825% in four months:

(Source: nytimes .com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html) And finally: Not too long ago I wrote to you about the heroic Kathryn Huwig in Ohio, whose COVID analytics have been excellent from the very start. I wrote to tell you about her appearance at the State House. In her testimony, she held up a chart of ICU bed usage in Ohio since March 2020. The X-axis, indicating time, was omitted on purpose. She noted that Ohio's alleged "public health" authorities had picked out certain events and certain state policies as being significant with respect to COVID, either in terms of spread or mitigation. All right, she said. If these things -- like Thanksgiving and Christmas (which should have led to an explosion in COVID numbers, according to the "public health" establishment), or the implementation of the mask mandate and the curfew (which should have led to lower numbers) -- really had such a significant effect that severe interventions into people's lives were justified, we should surely be able to identify them on the graph even without the help of the dates. So go ahead, she said. Show me on the graph where the curfew went into effect, the mask mandate was instituted, when businesses opened in the spring, etc. And of course it's impossible to find these events on the chart, because none of them appear to accomplish anything. I decided: I have to get her on my show. And I did it: https://tomwoods.com/ep-1860-kathryn-huwig-smashes-covid-pseudoscience-at-state-house/ Well, I'm happy to say that Kathryn is now a member of the Tom Woods Show Elite! It's the place where your dreams of interacting with sane people come true.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

The vast majority of negative outcomes are among the elderly.

Are your handlers now allowing you to say what we've known for decades?

 

[Bruddah IZ]

You've forgotten the vaccine comparison came when we didn't know if any vaccine would reach 70%.

The 70% estimate is from the real world. It is 70%, as used in the real world.

Errors in fit, behavior adaptations, and so on are real concerns, but they are already baked into the 70% estimate.

Grace's point about in home transmission makes a bigger difference. The vaccine gets its full power in that setting, but masks and distance get nothing.

In some sense, it means any vaccine reduction should get counted twice. In a chain of 2 transmissions, one at home and one outside, the vaccine reduces both. So a 70% effective vaccine reduces the chain to 9% of what it would have been. (.3*.3).

Similarly, a behavior change reduction should get counted once. A 70% effective behavior change reduces the chain to 30% what it would have been.(.3*1)

In effect, a 70% effective mask is similar to a 45% effective vaccine. Not as good as J&J, but not zero, either.

You're babbling

 

[dad4]

You're babbling

No. I am thinking. You are reposting half truths you found on some right wing fringe site.

Look at your Rhode Island chart. Is it really true that there were absolutley no policy or behavior changes from May 2020 to March 2021? Seems pretty unlikely. It just means you cribbed the chart from some advocate who only shows you what he wants to show.

 

[Kicker4Life]

Here’s the rub....masks/distancing/lock downs do nothing to improve immunity or health. Therefore as soon as you remove those “barriers” you are at risk.

It’s ironic that our public health leaders have not once put out a campaign of eating healthy, exercising and basic vitamin regiments that will help minimize your Covid impact risk.

Any idea why?

 

[Bruddah IZ]

No. I am thinking. You are reposting half truths you found on some right wing fringe site.

Look at your Rhode Island chart. Is it really true that there were absolutley no policy or behavior changes from May 2020 to March 2021? Seems pretty unlikely. It just means you cribbed the chart from some advocate who only shows you what he wants to show.

The NYT is hardly right wing. Please continue.

 

[kickingandscreaming]

You've forgotten the vaccine comparison came when we didn't know if any vaccine would reach 70%.

The 70% estimate is from the real world. It is 70%, as used in the real world.

Errors in fit, behavior adaptations, and so on are real concerns, but they are already baked into the 70% estimate.

Grace's point about in home transmission makes a bigger difference. The vaccine gets its full power in that setting, but masks and distance get nothing.

In some sense, it means any vaccine reduction should get counted twice. In a chain of 2 transmissions, one at home and one outside, the vaccine reduces both. So a 70% effective vaccine reduces the chain to 9% of what it would have been. (.3*.3).

Similarly, a behavior change reduction should get counted once. A 70% effective behavior change reduces the chain to 30% what it would have been.(.3*1)

In effect, a 70% effective mask is similar to a 45% effective vaccine. Not as good as J&J, but not zero, either.

Do we have a "real-world" comparison of mask mandates vs. vaccinations? I'd say hospitalizations and deaths are the two results that will be most reliable as cases will be undercounted in the non-vaccinated population. Have they taken all the states that had both mask mandates and participated in the trial vaccine program and compared the % of hospitalizations and deaths (by age) in the non-vaccinated population and the population that was vaccinated (vaccinations after the first 2 weeks)? That is a reasonable comparison between the vaccine and mask policy.

 

[espola]

The NYT is hardly right wing. Please continue.

But the Mises Institute is.

 

[dad4]

The NYT is hardly right wing. Please continue.

Who put your Rhode Island chart together and added a partial timeline in yellow? That wasn’t the NYT.

Whoever it was, they seem to have forgotten to mention the fact that RI opened indoor dining last summer, a bit before their surge in cases.

Reopening RI: Indoor Dining Regulations In Phase 2

Restaurants will be allowed to offer limited indoor dining in Rhode Island starting June 1.

patch.com

So, they opened gyms and dining in June. Within a month, that stopped the improvement in case counts. While weather was good, open dining meant mostly flat cases. Once weather turned bad, open dining meant a huge spike.

Your chart no longer seems to prove what you said it proves.