Bad News Thread

Grace T. said:
If this holds up it's NEVER going to go away....we will have to learn to live with it, hopefully with a death rate on par or lower than the flu.....if it eventually mutates away from the vaccine (which there is some scant evidence that it is beginning to do), EVERYONE will eventually get it but hopefully with not a huge death rate as our bodies get an initial exposure from the virus or vaccines....


nypost.com

COVID-19 reinfection is ‘common’ among young people, study finds

A new study of young people found that COVID-19 reinfection was “common” among those who had the virus. The study, published Friday in the preprint server MedRxiv, examined 3,249 young, healthy mos…
nypost.com nypost.com
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Why would we assume it goes away.

It seems very flu like. The main difference being that up until now we haven't had a vaccine.

It seems much more likely this is a yearly thing with different strains like the flu vs let's say polio which for all intents and purposes went away with that vaccine
 
Desert Hound said:
Why would we assume it goes away.

It seems very flu like. The main difference being that up until now we haven't had a vaccine.

It seems much more likely this is a yearly thing with different strains like the flu vs let's say polio which for all intents and purposes went away with that vaccine
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If the article is correct, I think you are right. People are still going to die from the thing....particularly older people if the virus mutates away from the vaccine and they can't get the vaccine right every year. It won't be as high as the death rate from this novel new virus our bodies haven't really seen (except for some cross reactions to other coronaviruses, which is probably why the death rates aren't in the 2-3% level like they thought it would be initially). It will be closer (maybe even less) than the flu. We gonna do the tier thing every winter? Kids in school in masks forever?
 
Grace T. said:
Because he even pokes the maskers with this argument you are making now: "Why are we poking this tiger, this mask issue now?" "Wearing a mask is easy to do. Can't you just shut up and wear the damn mask?"

And this is the EXACT same thing that happened in 2008 with all the experts saying the housing market could never crash. They weren't complete non-credential experts (this guy is an MD), just a bunch of outsiders telling the big boy establishment they were wrong. And like in 2008, they were responded to by saying they were wrong, they weren't credentialed, they were nutters. The anti-lockdowners got it right...the establishmentarian experts got it wrong.

Now, once we've established the current policy is wrong it's a separate question of what we do about it.
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So, your new argument is that the 2008 housing market proves that masks do not work?

Right. Got it.

Along those lines, I also understand that the Treaty of Versailles proves that you cannot get mercury poisoning from seafood.
 
dad4 said:
So, your new argument is that the 2008 housing market proves that masks do not work?

Right. Got it.

Along those lines, I also understand that the Treaty of Versailles proves that you cannot get mercury poisoning from seafood.
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No my argument is the expert-class if full of themselves and for (various yet to be explained factors) will have a tendency to get these type of analysis wrong which slightly credentialed outsiders with a tendency to bet "don't pass" have an easier time spotting.
 
Grace T. said:
If the article is correct, I think you are right. People are still going to die from the thing....particularly older people if the virus mutates away from the vaccine and they can't get the vaccine right every year. It won't be as high as the death rate from this novel new virus our bodies haven't really seen (except for some cross reactions to other coronaviruses, which is probably why the death rates aren't in the 2-3% level like they thought it would be initially). It will be closer (maybe even less) than the flu. We gonna do the tier thing every winter? Kids in school in masks forever?
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Good questions. Looks like political ideology and local officials will drive what continues years after the vaccines are widely distributed. If my county/community decides it is never going to allow normality to return to school, sports and life, my family will have to relocate to a community that will. I will not accept these mandates or measures forever and will move my family to a place that believes in common sense, science and data to make informed public health guidelines. Looks like Southern California might not be the place for my family any longer and that is sad because I could never imagine a circumstance until now that would make me want to leave. Hope the housing market doesn’t crash before I decide if I need to sell my home and a uHaul is only affordable to our elitist class of people l.
 
Grace T. said:
No my argument is the expert-class if full of themselves and for (various yet to be explained factors) will have a tendency to get these type of analysis wrong which slightly credentialed outsiders with a tendency to bet "don't pass" have an easier time spotting.
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That was exactly my point.

Those so called experts telling us to stop eating shark fin soup while pregnant don't know what they're talking about.

They just want to make us all panic because they are full of themselves coocoo environmentalists. Those lab tests about methylmercury don't mean anything about the real world.

How is my logic any worse than yours?
 
dad4 said:
That was exactly my point.

Those so called experts telling us to stop eating shark fin soup while pregnant don't know what they're talking about.

They just want to make us all panic because they are full of themselves coocoo environmentalists. Those lab tests about methylmercury don't mean anything about the real world.

How is my logic any worse than yours?
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There’s two parts of this application. The first is the data. That’s what the math hats are good at. The next part is the conclusions. Here for a variety of reasons (when it comes to economics, real estate, health policy, and education) they fail. It goes back to the discussion we had about why they don’t let math guys like you have final say in running comps. Or why in “Margin Call” they put the idiot that mixes his metaphors in charge of the rocket scientist. They aren’t very good at it for a variety of reasons. And when the check on them is panicky politicians, it’s a disaster. The person reviewing the data might very well decide shark fin soup for pregnant women not so good...they could also decide no shark fin soup for anyone....or we need more sharks(which will make the surfers unhappy). Someone at the table needs to be there to ask...hey how about the surfers?
 
Grace T. said:
Small criticisms....a. hospitalizations are a lagging indicator, b. the graphs do show small bumps in some states 1-2 weeks after the holiday, but basically correct. Gatherings were not enough in these states to create "surge upon surge" and the big driver of this is seasonality.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1356375458477191173
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Same explanation as before: you don’t get a Christmas spike if you manage to infect most of your population before the holidays.

What you get is a slowing of the decline. Which is evident in the fact that your graph is concave down from 12/15 to 1/15. A decline would normally be concave up: exponential decay.

Take a look at the rest of the country if you want to see the holiday bump more clearly.
 
dad4 said:
Same explanation as before: you don’t get a Christmas spike if you manage to infect most of your population before the holidays.

What you get is a slowing of the decline. Which is evident in the fact that your graph is concave down from 12/15 to 1/15. A decline would normally be concave up: exponential decay.

Take a look at the rest of the country if you want to see the holiday bump more clearly.
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California as a whole peaks dec 17-20 well before Christmas. There is a second peak a little after new year. The second peak is not as high as the first. I agree there is a holiday bump (and in the cases you cite it slowed the decline). It wasn’t Armageddon on Armageddon. It definitely impacted the curve. It did not radically alter it.
 
“The lockdowns have been an enormous and ineffective overreaction, not actually protecting the population from COVID. While at the same time, the collateral damage is absolutely devastating,” he said.

“It’s an unfocused overreaction…We just should have focused on the population we knew to be at risk, protected them, thought of creative ways to protect them from the beginning of the epidemic…And for the rest of the population, the lockdown, we should have been thinking about the collateral damage from the very beginning.”

humanevents.com

Stanford Doctor Blasts COVID Lockdowns, Were an ‘Overreaction’ to ‘Protect the Rich’

After months of extreme lockdown measures, business closures and overall restrictions on life as we knew it, one doctor is speaking out. Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, a professor of medicine at Stanford University, told podcast host Megyn Kelly that
humanevents.com humanevents.com
 
After Fauci bouncing back and forth for several days, we've reached peak stupidity and the CDC is studying recommending double masks. I tell you right now, if they try to mandate it I won't do it. Here's my red line. They don't even have solid proof the single masks in real world conditions can do anything. And remember, they are talking about this going on for years folks (for reasons previously discussed: kids not fully vaccinated until 2022, the J&J and other non-mRNA vaccine being partially effective, virus variants mutating away from the vaccines). Nope.

nypost.com

Fauci says CDC may recommend double-masking

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention may soon recommend all Americans wear two masks to enhance their protection against coronavirus, Dr. Anthony Fauci said Tuesday. “It makes commo…
nypost.com nypost.com
 
My brothers and I just went 3 rounds talking about how to talk my father off the ledge and his intent to remain under quarantine, despite in 1 week he'll be fully vaccinated. Particularly with my younger brother, who is also in an irrational panic, it was painful. Think I've finally lined up everyone to see the light particularly with the argument it's not fair to either my mother or the grandkids. But man, it was a lesson on how rational arguments fall on deaf ears when people are in panic mode.
 
Grace T. said:
After Fauci bouncing back and forth for several days, we've reached peak stupidity and the CDC is studying recommending double masks. I tell you right now, if they try to mandate it I won't do it. Here's my red line. They don't even have solid proof the single masks in real world conditions can do anything. And remember, they are talking about this going on for years folks (for reasons previously discussed: kids not fully vaccinated until 2022, the J&J and other non-mRNA vaccine being partially effective, virus variants mutating away from the vaccines). Nope.

nypost.com

Fauci says CDC may recommend double-masking

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention may soon recommend all Americans wear two masks to enhance their protection against coronavirus, Dr. Anthony Fauci said Tuesday. “It makes commo…
nypost.com nypost.com
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Looks like you're having a panic attack.
 
Grace T. said:
"Oh Magoo, you've done it again!"

Post a pic of you in your double mask. I'm sure you'll look cute in that little yellow car of yours.
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No mask, single mask, double mask, whatever -- the relative effectiveness of all of those choices should be easy to prove or disprove.

Since you are so heavily dedicated to personality types (a subtle form of prejudice ("all you e's are just alike")) , just let me prejudge that as a scientist you make a good poet.
 
espola said:
No mask, single mask, double mask, whatever -- the relative effectiveness of all of those choices should be easy to prove or disprove.

Since you are so heavily dedicated to personality types (a subtle form of prejudice ("all yoou e's are just alike")) , just let me prejudge that as a scientist you make a good poet.
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Wait....so you are a scientist? Please tell me more? What's your field...genuinely interested?

The mask thing hasn't been easy to prove because it would require a RCS which has been deemed unethical in the current environment (basically deliberately exposing people to COVID in real world situations and seeing if the masks do anything). So we are stuck with observational and modeling studies, and the studies (mostly observational) which were done on the flu before the pandemic, and Denmark.

I suspect actually that you and I may have mirror personalities (which is why we seem to dislike each other so much, with the mirror being in the e or i). It also shows you are a very poor judge of character because my personality type is probably self-evident to anyone with a relative level of self-awareness. I am relatively far away from poet in the personality type, though I have had a romantic streak which has caused no end to difficulties.
 
dad4 said:
Then why post the link? That link is not an argument against visiting grandma. (which would be a responsible post.)

That link is a straight up argument against purchasing and wearing cloth and surgical masks.

And not even a good argument at that.

He’s just a GP. He is certainly not qualified to evaluate epidemiology research. Nor is he up to date. The text is still talking about protecting the wearer, instead of reducing outbound transmission.

It’s just one more half-informed rant from someone who doesn’t know what they are talking about. Same as the right wing nutters used to post here back in April. Care to follow it up with a picture of a chain link fence?
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April? You mean back when the one nutter wagered that there would be no more than 12,500 deaths?
 
Grace T. said:
Wait....so you are a scientist? Please tell me more? What's your field...genuinely interested?

The mask thing hasn't been easy to prove because it would require a RCS which has been deemed unethical in the current environment (basically deliberately exposing people to COVID in real world situations and seeing if the masks do anything). So we are stuck with observational and modeling studies, and the studies (mostly observational) which were done on the flu before the pandemic, and Denmark.

I suspect actually that you and I may have mirror personalities (which is why we seem to dislike each other so much, with the mirror being in the e or i). It also shows you are a very poor judge of character because my personality type is probably self-evident to anyone with a relative level of self-awareness. I am relatively far away from poet in the personality type, though I have had a romantic streak which has caused no end to difficulties.
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In order of study - mathematics, chemistry, physics, electronics, and computer engineering. I have even had a touch of biology and psychology training along the way. The most interesting learning I pursued is neural networks - sort of a mix of biology and mathematics, which got really interesting in the '80s when it became possible for electronic circuits to emulate biological mechanisms with a speed and density good enough to be useful (not just theoretical mathematical curiosities any more) and then leading up to now when we have computers able to do biologic-like things faster and more dependably than real brains.

My introduction to neural networks was taking a class thought by Dr. Bart Kosko. It was a UCSD Extension course, so the format was 3 hours one night a week. The first week, we covered Dr. Kosko's recent paper on Bidirectional Associative Memories (after some appropriate leadup material), followed by a quiz on the material just presented. By the next week, about half the class had dropped out.


I don't buy into the personality type hogwash. I judge people as individuals.

BTW, I didn't mean that you were a _good_ poet.
 
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