Well, from what I gathered from part of my father's reasoning, the new variants might be more infectious against even those who have had it before, but maybe not have gotten a full immunity (such as the asymptomatic carriers we've heard so much about). Further, he's worried that evolutionary pressure will begin to steer the variants away from vaccine coverage. He also thinks the govt is just lying about the more contagious, not more deadly part, to avoid a panic. Again none of this based in science. Just irrational panics of what ifs.
Bad News Thread
- Thread starter kickingandscreaming
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Well, from what I gathered from part of my father's reasoning, the new variants might be more infectious against even those who have had it before, but maybe not have gotten a full immunity (such as the asymptomatic carriers we've heard so much about). Further, he's worried that evolutionary pressure will begin to steer the variants away from vaccine coverage. He also thinks the govt is just lying about the more contagious, not more deadly part, to avoid a panic. Again none of this based in science. Just irrational panics of what ifs.
Not if this guy is correct. Even if he's incorrect, it gives plenty of time for "Team Fear" to extend restrictions (6-14 weeks from now goes until May 14). It could be "orange" in March, but based on history, those in power in CA are likely to determine that we have to continue all restrictions until they perceive this threat is zero. If CA really does allow what they say they will in March if we get to orange, it will mark a significant change in their philosophy regarding the virus. Anyone think we will get a new model in the next few weeks based on the spread of the variants, or will Newsome be too busy fighting for his political life?
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An epidemiologist who advised President Joe Biden’s transition on the Covid-19 crisis warned on Sunday of a looming wave of infections and said the U.S. should adjust its vaccination strategy in order to save lives.
“The fact is that the surge that is likely to occur with this new variant from England is going to happen in the next six to 14 weeks. And, if we see that happen, which my 45 years in the trenches tell me we will, we are going to see something like we have not seen yet in this country,” Osterholm said.
Former Biden Covid advisor says U.S. should prioritize first vaccine doses ahead of potential surge
Dr. Michael Osterholm says the U.S. should prioritize first doses of Covid vaccine ahead of a potential surge linked to overseas variants.www.cnbc.com
He’s talking about the UK variant. It is around 70% more transmissible, and will be dominant in the US by around March. Nationally, that’s a problem. It kicks Rt up from 0.8 to 1.36. That’s the difference between dividing in half every 2 weeks, and doubling every 2 weeks.
Which is why he wants to focus on first shots. If 1/4 of people are immune, that 1.36 drops down to 1. No longer runaway growth.
For LA, it is different. LA already has a more transmissible variant. Maybe 1.5 times as bad. Which means not much changes when you introduce a UK variant that is 1.7 times as bad. The UK portion of infections might have Rt = 0.9 instead of 0.8. Not spreading.
The South Africa one worries me more. If the vaccines work less well, that may also mean that having recovered also works less well. But we have more time on that one.
Correct me if I'm wrong please, but then is the conclusion a 3rd wave is still very much a possibility....just that in places like Los Angeles (and presumably places like North Dakota) it won't be as bad because of the seroprevalence in those areas, but for places with a relatively lower seroprevalence (such as for example the Bay Area), they still might get a moderate third wave?
Remember that we vaccinate a lot of people who have had covid. If we are at 10% confirmed infected and 40% total infected, the only people who delay the vaccine are the 10% confirmed. The 30% who had it, but never knew, still get in line for vaccine.
It drops the seroprevalence number a smidge. Less so for early vaccinations, since the 75 year olds are more likely to know whether they have had it.
This belongs in the good news thread but for the fact that even with the second shot there is still a very low portion of people needing hospitalization. For people scared of long COVID or getting it at all, this won't help with the panic since they'll still be news stories.
www.theguardian.com
Israel Covid vaccine data shows extremely low rate of infections
Only 0.04% of people caught virus a week after second dose and 0.002% needed hospital treatment
www.theguardian.com
Dad4's numbers don't make it look good for youth sports and schools this spring <sigh>
Here's the line coming out on kids and the new variant. So the new variants don't target kids more than olders. It still affects them less and they still think its less contagious for them. But since it's more contagious for everyone, the question with kids (particularly since again 16 year olds are not looking like they'll get vaccinated until summer, 12-16 in the fall, and under 12 not until as late as 2022...with some wiggle room for 15 and 10-11 year olds) is what impact therefore on schools and youth sports....does it raise the threshold (notwithstanding kids being affected less than adults) from schools/youth sports are not a danger to community to spread to yeah it is. Given the panic still prevalent on team panic, that's the line we will be increasingly hearing.....
www.nature.com
Here's the line coming out on kids and the new variant. So the new variants don't target kids more than olders. It still affects them less and they still think its less contagious for them. But since it's more contagious for everyone, the question with kids (particularly since again 16 year olds are not looking like they'll get vaccinated until summer, 12-16 in the fall, and under 12 not until as late as 2022...with some wiggle room for 15 and 10-11 year olds) is what impact therefore on schools and youth sports....does it raise the threshold (notwithstanding kids being affected less than adults) from schools/youth sports are not a danger to community to spread to yeah it is. Given the panic still prevalent on team panic, that's the line we will be increasingly hearing.....
What new COVID variants mean for schools is not yet clear
Children are no more susceptible to these lineages than adults are — and closing schools on the basis of incomplete information could have repercussions.
www.nature.com
Anywhere with Rt > 0.6, and the normal variant could be in trouble. That is most of the country. At least it hits in spring, when some places start to head back outside.
LA and ND are different. LA already has a bad variant, so the UK one is isn’t much worse. ND has the normal variant. For them, the UK one is worse. You could still see a spike among 30%-50% or so of people in ND who have not yet had it.
Of course, ND already saw a spike among 50%-70% of their population, so it won’t be “unlike anything they have ever seen”.
"unlike anything they have ever seen"
well, for one thing, people should worry if you and I are in agreement. Don't see much of anything to dispute here. I've always had a hunch we'd see a mild-moderate spring wave, though this is the first time I've seen the reasoning laid out.
I agree it won't be "unlike anything they have ever seen", though. There just isn't any evidence of a huge new round of deaths in the UK, particularly in young people, and by then the most vulnerable among us will have hopefully gotten at least their first jab which will bring the death rate way down. The question then is what do we do to break the panic. There will still be news stories of the 40-50 year olds cut down in the prime of life, still fears about long COVID.
If you break the panic too well, people start hosting dinner parties again. In that case, throw my analysis out the window. You’ll get a spring surge just from the behavior changes.
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
I feel like extreme, difficult to support, pronouncements such as these are not far from yelling "Fire!" in a theatre. Any thoughts as to what happens to this guy if things never get "unlike anything they have ever seen"? He also said something about a "Category 5 ... He will lose all credibility in my eyes, but I have little doubt others will continue to quote his "expert" opinion when it suits their ends. I'll wait 6-14 weeks before I decide whether his opinion gets any respect from me going forward. If he's correct, I'll be impressed.
The issue with the panic, though, is it's not directed at those dinner parties. It's directed at the easy targets like the kids (which is why we have talk about LAUSD being hybrid only next year and youth sports being uniquely dangerous) and outdoor dining (which in turn encourages those dinner parties). At a certain point we have to say f' it...the most vulnerable are vaccinated or have been offered it, but open it back up.....Florida's done it so can we.
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
Isn't "control through panic" an oxymoron?
Look above. It’s 2021 and Grace is still preaching against masks. We have several peer reviewed studies showing effectiveness, and she’s quoting some GP in rural Oregon who doesn’t realize he is outside his field.
If you’re going to be stupid about it and ignore simple advice like masks, then maybe a bit more respect for the virus would be appropriate.
Desert Hound
DA
Don't worry LAUSD is working on the important things. Reason #...oh f*** it, why my kids are not in public school.
I'm not preaching against masks. I'm preaching that we should stop lying about the effectiveness. Then we don't have people doing stupid things like showing up to their grandparents house at Christmas for 4 hours and claiming it's o.k. because everyone is wearing masks.
I just watched "The Big Short" again....the entire story is a bunch of small timers telling the big boys they got it wrong....great movie about the limitations of the expert class. Guy in rural Oregon is taking precautions when he sees COVID patients....he's just realistic about what a cloth mask can do.
LAUSD is deep into plans which will have next year hybrid only until kids can get vaccinated.
My son would attest to the truth of this story. We were stopped at a light yesterday close to Sunset and Highland were the Academy Award theatre is. We both look at the pickup truck next to us and there is this guy in a full blown gas mask, face shield, bright yellow kitchen gloves next to us. We both look over and our eyes pop up. Unless the guy was transporting COVID soiled masks or blankets in the cab of his truck, not sure what he was doing.
Then why post the link? That link is not an argument against visiting grandma. (which would be a responsible post.)
That link is a straight up argument against purchasing and wearing cloth and surgical masks.
And not even a good argument at that.
He’s just a GP. He is certainly not qualified to evaluate epidemiology research. Nor is he up to date. The text is still talking about protecting the wearer, instead of reducing outbound transmission.
It’s just one more half-informed rant from someone who doesn’t know what they are talking about. Same as the right wing nutters used to post here back in April. Care to follow it up with a picture of a chain link fence?
Because he even pokes the maskers with this argument you are making now: "Why are we poking this tiger, this mask issue now?" "Wearing a mask is easy to do. Can't you just shut up and wear the damn mask?"
And this is the EXACT same thing that happened in 2008 with all the experts saying the housing market could never crash. They weren't complete non-credential experts (this guy is an MD), just a bunch of outsiders telling the big boy establishment they were wrong. And like in 2008, they were responded to by saying they were wrong, they weren't credentialed, they were nutters. The anti-lockdowners got it right...the establishmentarian experts got it wrong.
Now, once we've established the current policy is wrong it's a separate question of what we do about it.
If this holds up it's NEVER going to go away....we will have to learn to live with it, hopefully with a death rate on par or lower than the flu.....if it eventually mutates away from the vaccine (which there is some scant evidence that it is beginning to do), EVERYONE will eventually get it but hopefully with not a huge death rate as our bodies get an initial exposure from the virus or vaccines....
nypost.com
COVID-19 reinfection is ‘common’ among young people, study finds
A new study of young people found that COVID-19 reinfection was “common” among those who had the virus. The study, published Friday in the preprint server MedRxiv, examined 3,249 young, healthy mos…
nypost.com