Vaccine

Grace T. said:
Still clinging to COVID zero I see.
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Not quite. Omicron is covid and may be able to survive in a vaxxed and masked population. It may not do much damage, though.

Delta, on the other hand, is absolutely being kept alive by the anti-vax, anti-mask crowd. It’s also doing the most damage, primarily to that same crowd.

I’m waiting for someone to point out that masks and other NPI are helpful because they give omicron the edge over delta. It’s probably true, but I can’t imagine anyone important saying it.
 
dad4 said:
Not quite. Omicron is covid and may be able to survive in a vaxxed and masked population. It may not do much damage, though.

Delta, on the other hand, is absolutely being kept alive by the anti-vax, anti-mask crowd. It’s also doing the most damage, primarily to that same crowd.

I’m waiting for someone to point out that masks and other NPI are helpful because they give omicron the edge over delta. It’s probably true, but I can’t imagine anyone important saying it.
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It may be the converse is true. London is now close to 50% omicron and it's pushing out the Delta (as the omicron did to Beta in South Africa prior). if so, particularly among the vaxxed and the healthy, you might want them to go out and catch it. NPIs would only prolong, not preclude, everyone catching omicron. So far only 1 recorded death in the UK...we don't know the circumstances.
 
watfly said:
But they would if everyone would just comply!

It's pretty simple actually, to quote Colorado's governor:

"Those who get sick, it's almost entirely their own darn fault,"
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He also said epidemiologists would recommend masks year-round to protect us from flu, etc. AND it's not the government's job to mandate people to do that any more than it is to tell them to put their coats on when it's cold outside.
 
dad4 said:
Delta, on the other hand, is absolutely being kept alive by the anti-vax, anti-mask crowd. It’s also doing the most damage, primarily to that same crowd.
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Again no basis in reality. You have billions of people who have yet to get a single shot.

They are not anti vax or anti max. They live in poor/corrupt countries.

And yet you think...hey it is the unvaxxed in CA or the US keeping the virus around. Sorry dad. This is global and billions dont have a vax, will not get a vax anytime soon, etc.

Fantasy land on your part. Par for the course.
 
dad4 said:
You’re arguing that the mountain doesn’t exist because the trail goes downhill.

Look behind you. It’s still there.
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Sounds clever but I'm not sure what that means. It still sounds like your kicking the can down the road, again. AKA "Wait it could get worse". How long should we be waiting for it get worse? Are you not getting tired carrying those goalposts on your back?
 
kickingandscreaming said:
You are arguing that even though we are going downhill, we are going uphill.
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There is not much potential left for uphill. We have a few holiday cases in the future. Not too long after that, delta gets squeezed out by omicron. If it is uphill, it is the foothill on your way down the mountain.
 
watfly said:
Sounds clever but I'm not sure what that means. It still sounds like your kicking the can down the road, again. AKA "Wait it could get worse". How long should we be waiting for it get worse? Are you not getting tired carrying those goalposts on your back?
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I don’t see it getting worse. If I thought it would get worse, I would not believe that Newsom’s mask mandate will be over on Jan 16.

I do believe the current thousand deaths per day was completely unnecessary. But I do not believe we will see a thousand deaths per day this summer.
 
dad4 said:
There is not much potential left for uphill. We have a few holiday cases in the future. Not too long after that, delta gets squeezed out by omicron. If it is uphill, it is the foothill on your way down the mountain.
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Non-epidemiologist: If the number of cases is going down despite packed stadiums, how is it that packed stadiums are high risk?
Epidemiologist: It's because we had so many prior cases there's not much potential left
Non-epidemiologist: But you predicted cases would spike.
Epidemiologist: That's because we didn't know there wasn't much potential left.
Non-epidemiologist: So, how will you know in the future if an activity will produce a spike in cases?
Epidemiologist: After the activity, if there's a spike, there was potential left. If no spike, there wasn't any left.
 
kickingandscreaming said:
Non-epidemiologist: If the number of cases is going down despite packed stadiums, how is it that packed stadiums are high risk?
Epidemiologist: It's because we had so many prior cases there's not much potential left
Non-epidemiologist: But you predicted cases would spike.
Epidemiologist: That's because we didn't know there wasn't much potential left.
Non-epidemiologist: So, how will you know in the future if an activity will produce a spike in cases?
Epidemiologist: After the activity, if there's a spike, there was potential left. If no spike, there wasn't any left.
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I don’t think anyone believes that stadiums alone can predict spikes while ignoring bars, restaurants, casinos, workplaces, private gatherings, and everything else.

You’re putting words in someone else’s mouth, and then complaining that they are wrong.
 
dad4 said:
I don’t think anyone believes that stadiums alone can predict spikes while ignoring bars, restaurants, casinos, workplaces, private gatherings, and everything else.

You’re putting words in someone else’s mouth, and then complaining that they are wrong.
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Correct me if I'm wrong but aren't you the one that made the supposition that full stadiums leads to full hospitals?
 
dad4 said:
I don’t think anyone believes that stadiums alone can predict spikes while ignoring bars, restaurants, casinos, workplaces, private gatherings, and everything else.
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And yet you blame...
- people not vaxxed
- people not using a mask
- bars/restaurants is your go to.

The reality?

- Billions are not vaxxed and will not be any time soon
- The vaxxed are vaxxed for the Alpha variant. The vax isn't very good at stopping them from spreading or getting the Delta variant. It appears even less effective with the O.
- So you have vaccines that are increasingly LESS helpful vs new variants
- People are social and will hang out at work, with friends, etc.

And yet you cling to the belief this is continuing because of anti mask or anti vax people. Completely ignoring the reality of the above.
 
Desert Hound said:
- The vaxxed are vaxxed for the Alpha variant. The vax isn't very good at stopping them from spreading or getting the Delta variant. It appears even less effective with the O.
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The early numbers our of South Africa (instead of the in lab propaganda Pfizer is spreading) seems to indicate effectiveness against disease from a 2 shot Pfizer regimen is low 30% against the omicron. No data yet on boosters since they haven't boosted much in South Africa. There's also a decline against severe disease to about 70% (which means the omicron might in fact just be less severe than the delta). Nothing hard published yet...just various SA docs shooting the s on twitter.
 
watfly said:
Correct me if I'm wrong but aren't you the one that made the supposition that full stadiums leads to full hospitals?
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You’re wrong. Full stadiums are one of the many mistakes which are causing full hospitals in some states.

I am not arguing that stadiums are the only cause of covid transmission, and you are not arguing that stadiums are the only thing we should open. We are both using stadiums as an example.
 
dad4 said:
Most of it is pretty clear by now.

It’s a respiratory virus that spreads in indoor spaces and is dangerous mostly to older and overweight people. If infected and unvaccinated, odds of death are less than 1%, but greater than 0.1%. We have vaccines that reduce your odds of deaths by 90% or more, and reduce transmission by something less than that. Masks reduce transmission, but simply being outside is considerably more effective. Being indoors in crowded spaces increases transmission, especially if you are unmasked and talking or singing.

None of this is in serious dispute.

Which leaves people like hound just denying basic facts, like whether covid spreads well in bars. And you have multiple people arguing things like “well of course that would save lives. But we aren’t going to do it, and you can’t make us. So there.”
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Here we go with the vaccines...Yes, vaccines do help. It's also obvious that vaccines aren't a cure all. As we better understand this virus, it's becoming more clear that vaccines aren't the only way to go about this. Early intervention is almost non-existent. Why? We certainly have the means, the minds, and the tools for early treatment. Early treatment likely would have saved thousands and thousands of lives. Instead hopitals have become places where people go to die. Shame on the corporate medical community for telling people to stay home and hope their disease doesn't progress. We've taken a giant step back in care. You should be outraged at how bad science and medicine has failed you.

Of course respiratory viruses spread in bars. If you are high risk, don't go. If you have immunity and are healthy go. You have choices.
 
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