Vaccine

Our friend Ian Miller, who generates so many devastating charts, had rather an amusing comment about the one below.

Below is Gibraltar, the most vaccinated place on Earth. The vaccination rate is given as 100 percent.

Gibraltar has had only a handful of deaths from the very beginning, long before any vaccines existed.

But if you were still doubtful about whether the vaccines stopped transmission (and I had several people email me yesterday to tell me that their friends genuinely believe that the vaccines do this, or at least slow it significantly), here is Gibraltar. (The orange line tracks the vaccination rate.)
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Commenting on this graph, Ian said: "I wonder if the like, one unvaccinated guy in the whole country is sitting there going, 'how can this possibly be a pandemic of just me?!'"

A few other items:

* New York City is now banning the unvaccinated from public streets, at least on New Year's Eve. You will need to show proof of vaccination to watch the ball drop.

Since the ACLU, after a long period of silence, wound up favoring vaccine passports as beneficial to liberty, it seems doubtful that we'll hear from them on this.

* In the UK, the Daily Mail got a hold of leaked documents describing an Operation Rampdown, whereby the UK government will walk back its COVID response early in the new year.

Among the provisions, it would:
  • Axe the legal requirement for those who catch the virus to self-isolate for ten days;
  • Shut down the national 'Test and Trace' system, which identifies those who may have been exposed to the virus;
  • Focus the fight against Covid on tackling local outbreaks and protecting "highest risk settings," such as care homes
'We will no longer be prioritizing the previous objectives of breaking chains of transmission at all costs," one document says.

Writes Robert Dingwall of Nottingham Trent University, former Government adviser: "I very much welcome the fact that people are planning for the end of the emergency and the restoration of everyday life. Treating Covid like any other respiratory infection should encourage people to dial down the fear and anxiety that have bedeviled the country for the past couple of years."

* I was just interviewed for a docuseries called COVID Revealed, in which all the lunacy is collected in one place. It's really devastating. I guarantee you will want to see it.

(Just to clarify: this is not the same thing as the documentary project by those filmmakers I had on my show; that will be coming soon.)

They are letting you watch it for free as long as you register in advance.

Since they're telling you the truth, they obviously can't rely on YouTube. So they'll send you links directly to the videos on their own site.

I can't help thinking, too, that if I bring them a lot of viewers via the link below, they might be inclined to have ol' Woods back on again in the future.

It's called COVID Revealed, and it highlights some of the important dissident voices that traditional platforms have been throttling.

So please register to watch using the link below, and thank you!
http://www.tomwoods.com/revealed
 
Desert Hound said:
theconservativetreehouse.com

Geert Vanden Bossche Was Right, The World's Most Vaccinated Country Cancels Christmas Due to Massive Rise in COVID-19 Infections - The Last Refuge

The most vaccinated population in the world exists on Gibraltar, a British Overseas Territory located at the southern end of Spain. The average number of vaccinations is 2.79 per person for all residents. However, even with that level of vaccination density, or perhaps –more likely– because of...
theconservativetreehouse.com theconservativetreehouse.com
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When Vanden Bossche initially reviewed the high vaccination rates in Israel, Vanden Bossche warned the absence of a natural immunity population to fight the virus would lead to an uncontrollable spread of the virus in the vaccinated community. The higher the vaccination rates, the more serious the spread of the virus amid the population that only carries the immune system protection provided by the vaccine.

I encapsulated his outline here: “The widespread vaccination rate is creating pressure on the virus to mutate into variants with higher levels of contagion. The unvaccinated group has been keeping the pressure down by defeating the virus and carrying natural immunity. However, as the unvaccinated population is increasingly made smaller, the pressure on the virus to mutate increases. Subsequently, these mutations stay at higher or more effective levels of infection.”

Duh!

And if mask are so effective then again the pressure on the virus to mutate increases.

Shocking isn't it??
 
A New Ad to help parents and teachers know if a child is having a stroke after they pass out and fall flat on their face or back of their head. I would make my kids wear a helmet to school to protect them from a stroke fall. I'm trying to remember anybody warning my foster mom about the dangers of kids having strokes in the 70s. Weed might be the reason for this season's high rate of stroke and heart attack victims under 18. I told a pal of mine to scare his 14 year old ds not to smoke weed anymore or that vape shit because it's known to cause strokes and that's why so many kids have heart attacks and come down with myracaratis and all the other "aitis's" out there.

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Grace T. said:
you are a smart guy so I got to believe you aren’t that thick. Your example is not an example of the type of herd immunity people are talking about which in even faucis dialogue refers to one of two things: a) the point where enough of the population is immune that covid stops circulating or b) the point where there are no more spikes irrespective of circumstances (it’s endemic with Spain over the late summer being the last example). You may be free to use your own definition because there are several others (like espolas) but that’s not what the authorities are talking about. If you can’t cram 100 cows in the barn in winter and that’s the normal condition of the cows you haven’t hit herd immunity. That’s why fauci and the cdc this weekend backed off the idea that herd immunity was possible

but let’s assume arguendo we are in a topsey turvey world and go with your definition. You’ve only shown environment affects the threshold in your example. The cows themselves had no say on whether to go in the barn or not…and if they didn’t go in the barn in the Minnesota winter they’d freeze to death…that’s not behavior it’s their state of being. Moreover it’s a cold which has normal ebb and seasonal flows…not an epidemic spike which is where the concerns are.
Click to expand...

Ok. Let’s use the context dependent definition of herd immunity, and look at behavior. People this time.

Spain looks to be herd immune. Still some cases, but outbreaks mostly fizzle out.

Now suppose the party scene really gets popular in Madrid this year. Too much time cooped up, and it’s time to be social. More people, more alcohol, more hookups, less distance. All of a sudden, you have spikes in a variety of diseases, including covid.

What happened? The herd immunity threshold changed. People who used to be keeping 6 feet are now adopting a different behavior. Put one way, people got closer to each other and disease spread more easily. Put another way, people changed their behavior and that altered the herd immunity threshold.
 
dad4 said:
Ok. Let’s use the context dependent definition of herd immunity, and look at behavior. People this time.

Spain looks to be herd immune. Still some cases, but outbreaks mostly fizzle out.

Now suppose the party scene really gets popular in Madrid this year. Too much time cooped up, and it’s time to be social. More people, more alcohol, more hookups, less distance. All of a sudden, you have spikes in a variety of diseases, including covid.

What happened? The herd immunity threshold changed. People who used to be keeping 6 feet are now adopting a different behavior. Put one way, people got closer to each other and disease spread more easily. Put another way, people changed their behavior and that altered the herd immunity threshold.
Click to expand...

It didn't change. The baseline you have to assume is normal human behavior. If NPIs are holding down infection rates and infection spike, they aren't at herd immunity under either definition (a) no more COVID or (b) low levels of endemic infection without spikes. Again, YOU may be happy living with restrictions in perpetuity. Most of the world is not because it's NOT part of the human condition. Otherwise what you are suggesting is NPIs forever, which BTW some of us from time to time have accused you of wanting and this is another piece of evidence that shows that yeah maybe you'd be totally fine with that. Finally, you are being antiscience....not even Fauci is using your definition....even espola's definition was better and more realistic.
 
Grace T. said:
It didn't change. The baseline you have to assume is normal human behavior. If NPIs are holding down infection rates and infection spike, they aren't at herd immunity under either definition (a) no more COVID or (b) low levels of endemic infection without spikes. Again, YOU may be happy living with restrictions in perpetuity. Most of the world is not because it's NOT part of the human condition. Otherwise what you are suggesting is NPIs forever, which BTW some of us from time to time have accused you of wanting and this is another piece of evidence that shows that yeah maybe you'd be totally fine with that. Finally, you are being antiscience....not even Fauci is using your definition....even espola's definition was better and more realistic.
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”Can we acheive herd immunity with a 60% vax rate and 2019 behavior patterns” is a perfectly reasonable question.

It is just a different question from “can we achieve herd immunity”.

You claim to be asking the second, then insist on pivoting to the first.
 
dad4 said:
”Can we acheive herd immunity with a 60% vax rate and 2019 behavior patterns” is a perfectly reasonable question.

It is just a different question from “can we achieve herd immunity”.

You claim to be asking the second, then insist on pivoting to the first.
Click to expand...

No you are just making selective definitional changes to support your world view. No one considers a world with ongoing NPIs being necessary to maintain the status quo "herd immunity". You are going your magic wand waiving seeking to distinguish stuff to protect your world view, in this case when even Fauci has moved on.

And no one is asking about the 60% rate. The relevant subjects for vaxxed immunity were Singapore, Iceland, Ireland. For natural immunity, the one to watch is India. England now has 95%+ seroprevalence in adults....still not at herd immunity.
 
Well for Gibraltar dad had an excuse as to why cases were surging. It was the tourists fault.

Well what about VT? Highest vaxxed state in the nation.

Certainly looks like breakthrough cases are not rare.


Vermont is one of the most vaccinated states in the country and has served as a model for its COVID-19 response throughout the pandemic. But now, the state is experiencing its worst COVID-19 surge yet, with several factors -- including its own success -- to blame, officials said.

In Vermont, nearly 72% of residents are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 -- more than any other state, according to U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data. At the same time, it has the 12th-highest rate of new COVID-19 cases over the last week, state data released Tuesday shows.

Vermont has seen a "significant" increase in COVID-19 cases in the past week, Mike Pieciak, commissioner of the state's Department of Financial Regulation, said during a press briefing Tuesday.

The seven-day average for COVID-19 cases rose 42% as of Tuesday, according to state data.

Here they talk about the fact that a lack of natural immunity could be an issue.

Regarding the recent case surge, Vermont may also be a "victim of our success," Levine said Tuesday, pointing to a lack of natural COVID-19 immunity among unvaccinated residents "because we kept the virus at such low levels throughout the entire pandemic."

abcnews.go.com

Vermont has the highest vaccination rate in the country. So why are cases surging?

Why COVID-19 cases are surging in Vermont, which is one of the most vaccinated states in the country.
abcnews.go.com abcnews.go.com
 
Grace T. said:
No you are just making selective definitional changes to support your world view. No one considers a world with ongoing NPIs being necessary to maintain the status quo "herd immunity". You are going your magic wand waiving seeking to distinguish stuff to protect your world view, in this case when even Fauci has moved on.

And no one is asking about the 60% rate. The relevant subjects for vaxxed immunity were Singapore, Iceland, Ireland. For natural immunity, the one to watch is India. England now has 95%+ seroprevalence in adults....still not at herd immunity.
Click to expand...

Singapore isn’t doing permanent NPI. They were just smart about when to relax NPI. First NPI, then vax, then relax NPI.

The “relax NPI” step causes a case spike. A very small case spike that causes few deaths because it is a very heavily vaccinated country. So what?

Seems to be working out just fine for them. They will end up with a low case rate, low NPI endemic steady state that is dependent on some amount of boosters and new vaccinations. Sounds like success to me.
 
Desert Hound said:
Well for Gibraltar dad had an excuse as to why cases were surging. It was the tourists fault.

Well what about VT? Highest vaxxed state in the nation.

Certainly looks like breakthrough cases are not rare.


Vermont is one of the most vaccinated states in the country and has served as a model for its COVID-19 response throughout the pandemic. But now, the state is experiencing its worst COVID-19 surge yet, with several factors -- including its own success -- to blame, officials said.

In Vermont, nearly 72% of residents are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 -- more than any other state, according to U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data. At the same time, it has the 12th-highest rate of new COVID-19 cases over the last week, state data released Tuesday shows.

Vermont has seen a "significant" increase in COVID-19 cases in the past week, Mike Pieciak, commissioner of the state's Department of Financial Regulation, said during a press briefing Tuesday.

The seven-day average for COVID-19 cases rose 42% as of Tuesday, according to state data.

Here they talk about the fact that a lack of natural immunity could be an issue.

Regarding the recent case surge, Vermont may also be a "victim of our success," Levine said Tuesday, pointing to a lack of natural COVID-19 immunity among unvaccinated residents "because we kept the virus at such low levels throughout the entire pandemic."

abcnews.go.com

Vermont has the highest vaccination rate in the country. So why are cases surging?

Why COVID-19 cases are surging in Vermont, which is one of the most vaccinated states in the country.
abcnews.go.com abcnews.go.com
Click to expand...
Area under the curve. Not moment in time. How does the total number of cases in VT rank?

So far, they have the second lowest total case rate in the nation. And they have the lowest covid death rate in the nation.

I’d say VT is doing ok so far.

Did a miss a memo where each of us tries to find the worst possible example to prove our point? First Grace brings up Singapore to argue against mask and vaccines mandates. Now you’re trying to point to Vermont as an example of failed covid policy.

Dang. Time for me to get with the program and launch the Chernobyl Initiative for Nuclear Power.
 
dad4 said:
Singapore isn’t doing permanent NPI. They were just smart about when to relax NPI. First NPI, then vax, then relax NPI.

The “relax NPI” step causes a case spike. A very small case spike that causes few deaths because it is a very heavily vaccinated country. So what?

Seems to be working out just fine for them. They will end up with a low case rate, low NPI endemic steady state that is dependent on some amount of boosters and new vaccinations. Sounds like success to me.
Click to expand...

1. You are changing your tune again. But it's a welcome change. At least you concede that despite the high vaxx rate and masks they still had a spike (so are not currently at herd immunity)
2. We don't know if they will end up with lower cases, or if the case rate just will fall due to seasonality and then rise again once they have new triggers such as seasonality.
3. You are the math guy and you asked the $1,000,000 way back when. The key question for whether a herd immunity threshold can be reached is if the breakthrough cases are high and if that number increases with time. All indications (both by studies and anecdotal) is that they are and they do.
4. which (now that we are on the same page finally) takes us to boosters. The big question with boosters is if it's 1 and done. Because if you have to keep going back at the well, then you are in flu shot territory. Only about 50% of Americans get the flu shot and the flu shot doesn't cause nearly the realm of reactions that the COVID shot does. In a countries like the US or Europe, if you try to force boosters plural, let alone a single booster, you are going to have significant civil unrest which will dwarf the little stuff we've seen so far. In Singapore, which is forcing the unvaxxed to pay for their own health care and which is effectively a police state, sure.
5. That leaves us with 3 things to manage this in the west: the drugs (in which case COVID really does become like managing the flu), natural immunity (not enough data on this yet but the stuff Dr. John presented is bad and all eyes will be on India if they get another delta wave), or a hypothetical better vaccine.
 
dad4 said:
Area under the curve. Not moment in time. How does the total number of cases in VT rank?

So far, they have the second lowest total case rate in the nation. And they have the lowest covid death rate in the nation.

I’d say VT is doing ok so far.

Did a miss a memo where each of us tries to find the worst possible example to prove our point? First Grace brings up Singapore to argue against mask and vaccines mandates. Now you’re trying to point to Vermont as an example of failed covid policy.

Dang. Time for me to get with the program and launch the Chernobyl Initiative for Nuclear Power.
Click to expand...

You are again missing the point.

The question isn't whether Vermont is doing better. Of course a highly vaccinated place will do better in death, hospitalizations and even cases. Vaccines good.

The question is whether a highly vaccinated place can have a spike (and therefore is not at herd immunity) despite the vaccines, and how prevalent are breakthrough infections (which you yourself identified as the $1,000,000 question).
 
Grace T. said:
You are again missing the point.

The question isn't whether Vermont is doing better. Of course a highly vaccinated place will do better in death, hospitalizations and even cases. Vaccines good.

The question is whether a highly vaccinated place can have a spike (and therefore is not at herd immunity) despite the vaccines, and how prevalent are breakthrough infections (which you yourself identified as the $1,000,000 question).
Click to expand...

I didn’t miss your point. I just don’t agree that your point is at all important.

Yes, small case spikes are possible when circumstances change. Singapore had one. Vermont is having one. China will have one when they relax. Exactly as predicted by the models.

So what? You start at herd immunity, environment or behavior change, transmission rises, cases go up for a bit, natural immunity rises, cases fall, and you reach herd immunity again.

If you are the head epidemiologist for Singapore, this cycle deserves your full attention. For anyone else, why would you pick this to care about? We have a lot of work to do before we think about the case spike from ending NPI in a fully vaccinated population.
 
dad4 said:
I didn’t miss your point. I just don’t agree that your point is at all important.

Yes, small case spikes are possible when circumstances change. Singapore had one. Vermont is having one. China will have one when they relax. Exactly as predicted by the models.

So what? You start at herd immunity, environment or behavior change, transmission rises, cases go up for a bit, natural immunity rises, cases fall, and you reach herd immunity again.

If you are the head epidemiologist for Singapore, this cycle deserves your full attention. For anyone else, why would you pick this to care about? We have a lot of work to do before we think about the case spike from ending NPI in a fully vaccinated population.
Click to expand...

That's why you are avoiding the question. Because if there is no herd immunity (at least under the 2 definitions which are under general discussion as opposed to your fantasy), there is no point to mandating vaccines....it's an elusive target you are never going to reach because as time passes you continue to lose ground and you can't NPI forever.

As to the NPIs we have come to the limit of what people will accept: which is basically theater like going into a restaurant with a mask on with everyone else sitting there without one, kids going to school in masks on the weekdays but then forgetting about them on the weekends, and only extreme blues are using it in their personal gatherings when they go to friends house (see the Atlantic story, for example). The Ds are already set up to take enormous political damage because of it, and the economy is already creaking under the strain. The red states have moved on, Biden's vaccine mandate is set to be blocked by the courts, and you'd have significant issues if even Los Angeles tries to shutter the restaurants again. Police state Singapore can do it....the west is at the limit.
 
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