Vaccine

dad4 said:
International travel, including illegal travel, is a very small fraction of cases.

There are only about one million border crossings per day.

Even if those foreigners have covid at the same rate as the US does currently, that’s only about 2500 cases per day from border crossings.

Now remember that the vast majority of border crossings are legal, which means we can require tests and vaccinations. Now you’re down well below 1000 per day if we’re smart about it.

That’s not a crisis.

Unless, of course, you have a fifth column of anti-mask anti-vax folks who keep R above 1. Then your 1000 cases per day balloons to 150,000 cases per day and you get the crisis we have now.
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I was talking about current domestic. Unless you separate into your own exclave, plenty of tourists from Florida can come visiting your home town.
 
EvilGoalie 21 said:
I read this thing I thought was kind of interesting. The argument was that a difference between people communicating "in person" and people communicating by posting online was that when you talk to somebody face to face most people naturally seek some sort of accommodation. Whereas when you post online you are basically representing an artificial personae you've created-you are effectively branding yourself and engaging in a marketplace of competing brands. So online communication tends towards forms of discord in discourse that you'd never do in person. And disinformation feeds into it because all the actor has to do is create pre-made advertisements that you can use to rep your brand. Don't know how much there is to it but was interesting.
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I think that's accurate. We've become last civilized in online conversations, and maybe that's why we're less tolerant of opposing opinions. However, I also think there is a wave of lack of intolerance for opposing opinions in general unrelated to online personas. While I try to avoid ad hominems online, I'm sometimes more snarky, maybe borderline mean-spirited, online than I would be face to face (although many of my friends might dispute that). I'm pretty pointed with certain people, like Dad4, as is he with me, although I still appreciate his takes. I suspect that he and I have way more in common than not, and if our kids were on the same team, I'd bet we would be hanging out and shooting the BS.
 
watfly said:
Victim card? 100%

Is that your way of saying you don't like it when someone points out that the anti-mask anti-vax folks have been keeping this disease alive and forcing the rest of us to deal with it? Fictional narrative

Look at the very high vax areas. Delta can't grow in a fully vaccinated adult population. You know that's false, Delta is spreading just fine in the vaccinated community, albeit better in the unvaccinated.

Natural immunity as a reason to avoid vaccines? Its a perfectly valid reason since it provides multifold better protection I don't believe natural immunity is stronger than the combination of natural and vaccine immunity. Nor do you. Espola Strawman They should still get the shot. Because your being held hostage by your own phobia?
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Where do you see any fully vaccinated community with R above 1?

The closest example I can find is Martha’s Vineyard. 95% adult vax rate. Cases slowly declining ever since the Obama case spike. That means R slightly below 1. not growing.

I think what we are seeing is that delta spreads just fine from the unvaccinated to the vaccinated. That does not mean delta case numbers can grow within a vacinated population.
 
Grace T. said:
oh oh. Having none on my prius, I think I'm in a lot of trouble.
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No worries. I'm sure there are many friendly people here that could suggest several good choices before you'd get to a point were you'd need to start watching the skies. My only recommendation would be to not stick on club insignia. Here today, gone tomorrow.
 
watfly said:
Potentially valid point.
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It depends on: a) how long vaccine immunity lasts (otherwise you have people dropping into the unprotected category every months....there's also a threshold question...what does "last" mean), b) if natural immunity is as robust as vaccine immunity (all indications are it is, if not even more robust), c) how many people are naturally immune as well, d) how long does natural immunity last, and e) does the virus continue to mutate to avoid prior natural and vaccine immunity. Biden/Gottlieb/Fauci are hoping a booster vaccine makes immunity near permanent like the chicken pox vaccine....they have no data to support that belief.....it could be its like the chicken pox, it could be its like the flu shot.
 
dad4 said:
Where do you see any fully vaccinated community with R above 1?

The closest example I can find is Martha’s Vineyard. 95% adult vax rate. Cases slowly declining ever since the Obama case spike. That means R slightly below 1. not growing.

I think what we are seeing is that delta spreads just fine from the unvaccinated to the vaccinated. That does not mean delta case numbers can grow within a vacinated population.
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Fact...but unscientific:

I am vaccinated. Recently, I contracted Covid, along with 2 other vax & 1 unvax, from another vax. I then spread to my vax spouse and my unvax teen = cases grew within a vaccinated population.

So, as I always ask...now what? or...then what?
 
met61 said:
Fact...but unscientific:

I am vaccinated. Recently, I contracted Covid, along with 2 other vax & 1 unvax, from another vax. I then spread to my vax spouse and my unvax teen = cases grew within a vaccinated population.

So, as I always ask...now what? or...then what?
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My friend had a similar experience with COVID spreading around a vaxxed and masked picnic. These are all anecdotes but are not consistent with an 80% efficiency against symptomatic infection. These anecdotes shouldn't be happening with the frequency they are happening.
 
watfly said:
You can opt out of the sticker requirement if you drive 60 in the fast lane.

I was always taught the fast lane was the passing lane. Apparently they don't teach that anymore, particularly in Arizona.
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That would be the snowbirds (in AZ), definitely not the natives. Drive the I10 to Phoenix on a Sunday PM/evening, its Deathrace 2000 on steroids, where slow is only 10 above the limit ... and you are in the way.
 
Grace T. said:
Yeah...but I'm really worried that it's not fixable. I understood why people had a problem with Trump. I understood why after years of building up their frustrations, the conservatives went with Trump (and why a portion of the Republican party opted to risk burning it down rather than go with yet another establishmentarian like Jeb!). I had hoped I was wrong and Biden would be a unifier that would restore some semblance of normality. But nope....the left is still snapped and what Biden did yesterday (but for the right thinking the courts have their back) has snapped the R. It's not good....I just don't see how we off ramp at this point.
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Those who can't get beyond a personality and vote as such are an inch deep.

It wasn't about Trump the person as much as it was about what that person exposed, revived, and accomplished.

It's not Trump's government, it's ours...and the political class in both parties have gotten way out of touch for what's best at the kitchen table level.

Trump showed how to take on the political class and their lackeys in the media, big tech and the lemming left... It will take enough folks reaching a tipping point, grassroots unity and the stones to do it...Keep an eye on poc's and the youth. We'll see.
 
met61 said:
Fact...but unscientific:

I am vaccinated. Recently, I contracted Covid, along with 2 other vax & 1 unvax, from another vax. I then spread to my vax spouse and my unvax teen = cases grew within a vaccinated population.

So, as I always ask...now what? or...then what?
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Not a problem, so long as that is not the average.

If, on average, each vaccinated person infects two others, then it's a problem.
 
Extremely bad news if it' holds out:

1) There's some data to suggest vaccine immunity may be waning.
2) the UK spread it's vaccinations apart. It suggests (unless a much longer period is required to reach full immunity) Fauci/Gottlieb/Biden are wrong about the vaccine being like a chicken pox vaccination (1 booster= long lasting immunity). Not a slam dunk but it's an indication.
3) the vaccine seems to be providing less protection against hospitalization
4) the vaccine seems to be providing less protection against long COVID.

If so natural infection after vaccination may be the only alternative to ending this.

 
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