Vaccine

Grace T. said:
You were the one who said a million deaths. I'm just holding you to it. You wanna say you mispoke and concede that some portion of it was baked in, that's cool too.


My pet theory (it's actually the ethical skeptics) is that the mainland Asian countries either: a) have a gene in place that helped with early COVID, or b) developed substantial cross immunity that helped limit the impact of the early strains (which has waned as the virus achieved immune escape). You see that immunity having broken down, which is why China is in part clinging to the COVID zero policy...with their poor vaccines, they are having a relatively high death count relative to their low case loads....if they let it rip it would be disastrous considering all that novel lack of immunity floating around there. See also South Korea for the counterfactual to the current China policy

Because the counter is the Philippines which lockdown very hard, had very robust masking, and shut down schools (it was the case study in the recent Economist piece) yet it didn't have the same success as the mainland Asian countries. It's the same BTW the India, which also had very robust lockdowns and masking, yet somehow there's a flip as you approach a line in Myanmar over when and how badly waves hit. You also BTW see it in Russia...where the Russian far east (despite zero masking and very low vaccine uptake throughout Russia and very low density) has somehow been hit less severely than the European part.

Again, no data on that because only the Japanese really deep dove this one, but 10 bucks says in 5 years my theory gets proven out.
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You mean, five years from now, Grace will claim that Grace was right the whole time.

Probably true.
 
Grace T. said:
You were the one who said a million deaths. I'm just holding you to it. You wanna say you mispoke and concede that some portion of it was baked in, that's cool too.


My pet theory (it's actually the ethical skeptics) is that the mainland Asian countries either: a) have a gene in place that helped with early COVID, or b) developed substantial cross immunity that helped limit the impact of the early strains (which has waned as the virus achieved immune escape). You see that immunity having broken down, which is why China is in part clinging to the COVID zero policy...with their poor vaccines, they are having a relatively high death count relative to their low case loads....if they let it rip it would be disastrous considering all that novel lack of immunity floating around there. See also South Korea for the counterfactual to the current China policy

Because the counter is the Philippines which lockdown very hard, had very robust masking, and shut down schools (it was the case study in the recent Economist piece) yet it didn't have the same success as the mainland Asian countries. It's the same BTW the India, which also had very robust lockdowns and masking, yet somehow there's a flip as you approach a line in Myanmar over when and how badly waves hit. You also BTW see it in Russia...where the Russian far east (despite zero masking and very low vaccine uptake throughout Russia and very low density) has somehow been hit less severely than the European part. Vietnam went China lite.

Again, no data on that because only the Japanese really deep dove this one, but 10 bucks says in 5 years my theory gets proven out.
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BTW, when pointing to Asia, you have to ask which policy. South Korea's test and trace quickly broke down and was abandoned (remember when everyone was screaming test and trace...so stupid). Japan was woefully unprepared for testing, but did do periodic lockdowns, but most importantly, rigorously sealed the border (except for notably the olympics). Both countries, unlike China and Vietnam, tend to run germaphobic with masking and sick people taking special care not to infect others. The Russian Far East, as I said, pretty much did nothing for most of the pandemic. Vietnam went China lite. So did Singapore.

espola said:
I also posted "not in line with the proportion one would expect from looking at the results of more rational countries", which I assume you saw since you responded to it in your own way.
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The line you posted as "something like a million deaths doesn't compel you". If you are willing to concede that all million wouldn't have been saved (short of a China policy, which you presumably disavow....or do you), we cool
dad4 said:
You mean, five years from now, Grace will claim that Grace was right the whole time.

Probably true.
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Says the person who has been repeatedly wrong about everything. Again: stand by my track record: COVID wave coming, school shutdowns, the IFR, what the BLM protests would do, the election, what the vaccine would do, Jan 6, how Biden would perform, stagflation, Ukrainian war...the only thing you can really point to in my track record that I'm severely wrong about was I was sure the Ukrainians were done for and the Russians would be more robust in trying to stop the West.
 
Grace T. said:
Says the person who has been repeatedly wrong about everything. Again: stand by my track record: COVID wave coming, school shutdowns, the IFR, what the BLM protests would do, the election, what the vaccine would do, Jan 6, how Biden would perform, stagflation, Ukrainian war...the only thing you can really point to in my track record that I'm severely wrong about was I was sure the Ukrainians were done for and the Russians would be more robust in trying to stop the West.
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Which BTW, is the one subject that I probably most closely qualify as an expert in, having studied the area in college, speaking the language, and having spent extensive time there....ha!....more fuel for my pet theory that part of the problem with so called experts is they are too close to the subject matter and therefore struggle with forest through the trees thinking.
 
Grace T. said:
The there were 3 big differences which made the US experience somewhat worse in deaths per capita than Europe:

1. Limited vaccine uptake during the early delta and omicron waves. It meant for a lot of people the virus remained novel while European nations with higher vaccine uptakes had less deaths in that time period. With 80%+ of the population now infected, however, it's moot, and even in countries with very high vaccine uptake (like Australia) and/or natural infection (such as Peru), deaths continue.

2. The higher U.S. obesity index since we know obese people tend to do worse with COVID than skinnier ones. The lockdowns, however, seemed to be counter productive with this one.

3. The failure to gird nursing homes early on in the pandemic which led to waves of mass death early on until they fixed it.

That's really it, short of the countries that were functionally islands and managed to shut themselves off from one wave or another, or China.
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see, now if only E and H would provide such answers. muchas gracias..
 
My gig is the kids. From a Covid deaths perspective for kids how'd we stack up against other countries? I'd imagine great since its just rare for a kid to die from Covid regardless of where they live.

How'd we do compared to other countries when it comes to interrupting education and development? I'd imagine shitty based on all the reports of falling behind in education and the mental health issues.
 
watfly said:
My gig is the kids. From a Covid deaths perspective for kids how'd we stack up against other countries? I'd imagine great since its just rare for a kid to die from Covid regardless of where they live.

How'd we do compared to other countries when it comes to interrupting education and development? I'd imagine shitty based on all the reports of falling behind in education and the mental health issues.
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Charter or home school is the only option unless you have an amazing school district, which is not easy to find. I told you once, twice and three times the lady about my buddy who is big time, in a big time school district. He is my best pal Bruno, who is black and never going back to admin. Stud leader in the community. He got out of admin because he said he would have had to sell his soul bro and his morals. His words not mine. He is a God fearing man and he could not play, "pay to play" at the highest level with his conscious. They wanted him to preach kneeling for their cause as well and he told them all to buzz off. He took another position and just teaches and not play politics. He's the one who is starting to look at a very nice "Neighborhood Home School" ((NHS)) curriculum business. He will be CEO. I might help with marketing. My other teaching pal is still on blood thinner from blood clots. He still takes the boosters because he has to to keep his job he says. Great guy. I love him so much but he wants to retire in four years so he obeys. BTW, he home schools his three kids for obvious reasons.
 
Grace T. said:
You were the one who said a million deaths. I'm just holding you to it. You wanna say you mispoke and concede that some portion of it was baked in, that's cool too.


My pet theory (it's actually the ethical skeptics) is that the mainland Asian countries either: a) have a gene in place that helped with early COVID, or b) developed substantial cross immunity that helped limit the impact of the early strains (which has waned as the virus achieved immune escape). You see that immunity having broken down, which is why China is in part clinging to the COVID zero policy...with their poor vaccines, they are having a relatively high death count relative to their low case loads....if they let it rip it would be disastrous considering all that novel lack of immunity floating around there. See also South Korea for the counterfactual to the current China policy

Because the counter is the Philippines which lockdown very hard, had very robust masking, and shut down schools (it was the case study in the recent Economist piece) yet it didn't have the same success as the mainland Asian countries. It's the same BTW the India, which also had very robust lockdowns and masking, yet somehow there's a flip as you approach a line in Myanmar over when and how badly waves hit. You also BTW see it in Russia...where the Russian far east (despite zero masking and very low vaccine uptake throughout Russia and very low density) has somehow been hit less severely than the European part.

Again, no data on that because only the Japanese really deep dove this one, but 10 bucks says in 5 years my theory gets proven out.
Click to expand...
When you say India had a "robust lockdown", how do you twist your narrative to include the BJP rallies and reopening for religious pilgrimages? ( The rallies and opening for religious holidays were both just before their Delta wave. )

Most people would consider tens of millions of people travelling to holy sites to be an example of "not locked down". But to you, it counts as a "robust lockdown".

Perhaps I should visit New Orleans for their Fat Tuesday Lockdown next year. I hear it's a lot of fun.
 
espola said:
The "doesn't work" denial of the last couple of years is why the number is over a million dead, and not in line with the proportion one would expect from looking at the results of more rational countries.
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Cue the “yeah but those countries are different” rhetoric
 
dad4 said:
When you say India had a "robust lockdown", how do you twist your narrative to include the BJP rallies and reopening for religious pilgrimages? ( The rallies and opening for religious holidays were both just before their Delta wave. )

Most people would consider tens of millions of people travelling to holy sites to be an example of "not locked down". But to you, it counts as a "robust lockdown".

Perhaps I should visit New Orleans for their Fat Tuesday Lockdown next year. I hear it's a lot of fun.
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How is that any different than what Europe did by easing their lockdowns in the summer of 2020 or Japan did by opening up for the Olympics (which they then proceeded to promptly close the borders after)?

or let’s take your favorite topic of masks. Spain had a medical grade mask requirement and robust testing yet did worse on a per capita basis than did Japan which continued to allow cloth masks and had lousy testing. And both pales in comparison to Peru which had rigorous long lasting lockdowns and masks yet somehow ended up worst in the world. Blows the mind…doesn’t it????
 
watfly said:
My gig is the kids. From a Covid deaths perspective for kids how'd we stack up against other countries?
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Sounds like you’re right. Age stratification means, to date, little impact for kids. ‘U-littles’ in Soccer parlance.

watfly said:
How'd we do compared to other countries when it comes to interrupting education and development? I'd imagine shitty based on all the reports of falling behind in education and the mental health issues.
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Mixed bag… dad4 would say more orphans. He’d be right.

ETOL would blame it on bad parenting.

Crush would call out liars and cheaters/jabs.

espola would ask a question that was not really a question?

Everyone else would reflect on their personal experience and say…That’s not how I expected things to go but we managed.
 
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