Vaccine

[dad4]

Some of us do science....it's why I gave a spread...because we just don't have the hard data.

Some of us make a bunch of assumptions and come up with a radical hard number like 3 percent.

Throughout this all one side has been doing actual science and critical thinking, and the other side has been doing religion and propaganda. The funny thing about you and your ilk is that you have prided yourself on being Galileo while it is very obvious that all along you've been the church.

Grace, where is the ‘science’ in your post?

Sentence 1, Grace praises herself for being sciency.
Sentence 2, Grace insults someone else’s numbers, without actually discussing the computation.
Sentence 3, Grace praises herself for being sciency, and insults her opponents as religious.
Sentence 4, Grace insults her opponents again, also as religious.

Nowhere in any of that do you even begin to discuss science. Your post is nothing more than a combination of bragging and ad-hominem attacks.

 

[soccersc]

Yes people will listen to the president that is partly why this has drawn out so long and many have suffered because of that. Listen to the experts.

Where do you think the President gets his info, you don't think he is prepped on what to say?

 

[Grace T.]

Grace, where is the ‘science’ in your post?

Sentence 1, Grace praises herself for being sciency.
Sentence 2, Grace insults someone else’s numbers, without actually discussing the computation.
Sentence 3, Grace praises herself for being sciency, and insults her opponents as religious.
Sentence 4, Grace insults her opponents again, also as religious.

Nowhere in any of that do you even begin to discuss science. Your post is nothing more than a combination of bragging and ad-hominem attacks.

This tired routine again.

You were the one that came out with an exact number. I did nothing of the kind. I gave a spread and qualified that it was a guestimate by people in the trenches based on flawed and faulty data. You held onto an exact number you pulled out of your ass. See the difference? Or are you going for even more intellectual bankruptcy than that you find yourself in?

p.s. at this point our side is entirely in its rights to brag...we were right...you were wrong....it wasn't even close.

 

[EvilGoalie 21]

Given how the CDC has been performing throughout all this, if that's where your hunch leads, your hunch is leading you to a dark dysfunctional corner. Doesn't really inspire confidence in the system.

Dark corner indeed. I hope you find a place where you feel less disillusioned. i mean that in a sincere way.

 

[espola]

This tired routine again.

You were the one that came out with an exact number. I did nothing of the kind. I gave a spread and qualified that it was a guestimate by people in the trenches based on flawed and faulty data. You held onto an exact number you pulled out of your ass. See the difference? Or are you going for even more intellectual bankruptcy than that you find yourself in?

p.s. at this point our side is entirely in its rights to brag...we were right...you were wrong....it wasn't even close.

It appears you think that that helps your position.

 

[Grace T.]

Dark corner indeed. I hope you find a place where you feel less disillusioned. i mean that in a sincere way.

Public health has torn its reputation to shreds. It's produced one garbage study after another acting as a propaganda arm. It has failed to do risk assessment. It has acted in a blatant political manner. It's been repeatedly shown to be wrong. Don't feel sorry for the disillusioned. Be concerned with why public health did this and how it's ever going to fix this, particularly if in our lifetimes we need it again. It's reputation is in the toilet...if we get another 10 years down the road (as you have articulated a fear of) what do you think is going to happen?

 

[Grace T.]

It appears you think that that helps your position.

Covidian

 

[espola]

Public health has torn its reputation to shreds. It's produced one garbage study after another acting as a propaganda arm. It has failed to do risk assessment. It has acted in a blatant political manner. It's been repeatedly shown to be wrong. Don't feel sorry for the disillusioned. Be concerned with why public health did this and how it's ever going to fix this, particularly if in our lifetimes we need it again. It's reputation is in the toilet...if we get another 10 years down the road (as you have articulated a fear of) what do you think is going to happen?

Coocoo.

 

[dad4]

Not sure how your original question got sucked into the over count thing. It has very little impact on the epidemiology. Fodder for rage clicking and cable news bobble heads so I guess fun to argue about. The mortality over count, however, is one I haven't seen trotted out since the bleach and bright light days.

Your question, as I took it, was whether the early rise in the case rate for vaxxed compared to unvaxxed was apparent or real. A numerical issue or reflective of the epidmiology/immunology? I thought it was an interesting question; thanks for pointing it out. Last night I pulled the case load data ("weekly update breakthoughs" folders) from the NYC site to look at it. The graph below is what i get for the change in case# (not rate) week to week during omicron in NYC. Takeaways IMO. 1) Even when viewed as straight up change in case load, vaxx holds up amazingly well, which is good. 2) omicron burns like prairie fire 3) I think the early rise in the unvaxx RATE is likely more apparent than real. The rate graphs shown earlier express the relative rates as per 100K so they are directly comparable for equivalently sized groups. But in the data set those groups are not the same size, which is of course the sampling issue that brings the denominator problem up in the first place. So to do per 100K rates you have to change the numerator to "pull" or "push" the numbers. That requires numerator shifts of different proportions between the two groups because the case count is so lower with the vaxx population. So, the way to look at the per 100K graphs is "IF there were equivalent groups of 100K, these are the estimated rates we would expect to see based on our sample". At least that's my take away. And it also emphasizes one thing I have tried to stress, which is that if you want the best estimate of VE you need to do random sampling so you can calculate odds instead of rates. The UK data is still the best AFAIK for omicron in this regard.

View attachment 12880

Thanks.

I was less wondering about vaccine efficiency. (That is established by now. Yes, it works.)

I was more hoping that it could tell me something about the role of NPI among vaccinated people. But, if the time lag is minor or illusory, there is less information to be had.

 

[soccersc]

There is a database of all vaccinations. There is a database of all tests run. You’re describing a merged database query on a few million records. That’s been easy for decades.

So how does this work with the made up numbers and projections you try and create. You should be careful, people that use statistics in the wrong way can be very dangerous spreaders of misinformation!!!! But then again, maybe you are even smarter than the doctor and math modeler from BU?

Brooke Nichols, a health economist and infectious disease mathematical modeler at Boston University, said "vaccinated individuals can definitely infect other people. There is enough data to support this."

"While vaccinated individuals may be less infectious and infectious for a shorter duration of time they are by no means a dead-end host," Nichols said. "When calling it a pandemic of the unvaccinated, though, it makes it sound as those vaccinated individuals aren’t substantially contributing to new cases — which they are (particularly now). Unvaccinated individuals do, however, continue to contribute disproportionately to hospitalizations and deaths."

However, Nichols added, "I don’t think the data systems in place can tell us anything about the proportion of new infections that originated from a vaccinated or unvaccinated person."

Beware of claims that vaccinated can’t spread COVID-19

As President Joe Biden heads toward his second year in office of leading the country through a pandemic, he faces the ch

www.politifact.com

 

[Grace T.]

Coocoo.

"Oh Magoo, you've done it again!"

 

[espola]

"Oh Magoo, you've done it again!"

I couldn't have done it with your excellent setup work.

 

[whatithink]

There were 2.3B people that fought in WW2? Might want to Fact Check that!

You just can’t stop making up #’s can you?

Maybe 300M Soldiers saw combat and a general estimate of 72M died.

Just stop!

I'm pretty sure the point was the Covid survival rate constantly quoted is based on deaths vs total population (WW), so comparing the WW2 deaths vs total population (WW) is equivalent.

2/3s approx. of the WW2 deaths were non military BTW.

Nice info here - World War II casualties - Wikipedia

 

[Grace T.]

I couldn't have done it with your excellent setup work.

Funny You are the king of comedy of these threads.

 

[Grace T.]

I'm pretty sure the point was the Covid survival rate constantly quoted is based on deaths vs total population (WW), so comparing the WW2 deaths vs total population (WW) is equivalent.

2/3s approx. of the WW2 deaths were non military BTW.

Nice info here - World War II casualties - Wikipedia

Flawed thinking again from the Covidians. Everyone on the planet is eventually going to catch COVID. Not everyone fought or was exposed to front line effects of war in WWII. Again, my mother spent a perfectly happy WWII....some of the best time of her life. Civilian deaths in the US also not a big deal. Nor civilian deaths in India. Wouldn't want to be a Jewish person in warsaw, however, or a Japanese person in Hiroshima. And then you have the great middle like civilians in France or Britain.

 

[Kicker 2.0]

I'm pretty sure the point was the Covid survival rate constantly quoted is based on deaths vs total population (WW), so comparing the WW2 deaths vs total population (WW) is equivalent.

2/3s approx. of the WW2 deaths were non military BTW.

Nice info here - World War II casualties - Wikipedia

The Covid Survival Rate I’ve always referred to is Cases V Deaths.

Understanding the “collateral damage” of WW2, but they weren’t actively involved in the battle. If you’d like to further drill down categories of excess mortality of WW2 in order to include some of them, OK but we would have to agree on them, not just lump them in.

 

[Kicker 2.0]

Yes people will listen to the president that is partly why this has drawn out so long and many have suffered because of that. Listen to the experts.

Aren’t the “experts” the ones advising the President?

Fauci also said it….is he not considered and expert (we may even agree on this)?

 

[kickingandscreaming]

"Oh Magoo, you've done it again!"

It's been a while. I missed it. Truly his greatest contribution to the thread.

 

[dad4]

So how does this work with the made up numbers and projections you try and create. You should be careful, people that use statistics in the wrong way can be very dangerous spreaders of misinformation!!!! But then again, maybe you are even smarter than the doctor and math modeler from BU?

Brooke Nichols, a health economist and infectious disease mathematical modeler at Boston University, said "vaccinated individuals can definitely infect other people. There is enough data to support this."

"While vaccinated individuals may be less infectious and infectious for a shorter duration of time they are by no means a dead-end host," Nichols said. "When calling it a pandemic of the unvaccinated, though, it makes it sound as those vaccinated individuals aren’t substantially contributing to new cases — which they are (particularly now). Unvaccinated individuals do, however, continue to contribute disproportionately to hospitalizations and deaths."

However, Nichols added, "I don’t think the data systems in place can tell us anything about the proportion of new infections that originated from a vaccinated or unvaccinated person."

Beware of claims that vaccinated can’t spread COVID-19

As President Joe Biden heads toward his second year in office of leading the country through a pandemic, he faces the ch

www.politifact.com

Link to NEJM letter, discussing ways to estimate whether vaccination reduces your ability to spread the virus:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmc2106757#article_citing_articles

Science is complicated Nichols thinks it can’t be accurately estimated with data systems. Others are busy building estimates based on housemates of vaccinated health care workers.

The two statements aren’t even in opposition. I’d certainly agree that a data system swag is no match for a housemate study.

 

[whatithink]

Flawed thinking again from the Covidians. Everyone on the planet is eventually going to catch COVID. Not everyone fought or was exposed to front line effects of war in WWII. Again, my mother spent a perfectly happy WWII....some of the best time of her life. Civilian deaths in the US also not a big deal. Nor civilian deaths in India. Wouldn't want to be a Jewish person in warsaw, however, or a Japanese person in Hiroshima. And then you have the great middle like civilians in France or Britain.

I'm sure you are bright enough to understand the words I wrote, but can't help with the labelling - it must be a comfort to you.

You also may want to rethink India, say, and pause before going off on one as you do.

Bengal famine of 1943 - Wikipedia