Vaccine

[dad4]

Wow, if we apply your theory to the rest of the world the mortality rate drops below 1%.

Yes. IFR is well below 1%.

Not just my view. The Economist’s worldwide estimate for deaths is around 15M. If you have 3B or 4B total infections, that gives you an overall IFR of 0.5% or 0.375%. Higher earlier in the pandemic, lower now.

I thought we all agreed on that.

 

[Kicker 2.0]

Yes. IFR is well below 1%.

Not just my view. The Economist’s worldwide estimate for deaths is around 15M. If you have 3B or 4B total infections, that gives you an overall IFR of 0.5% or 0.375%. Higher earlier in the pandemic, lower now.

I thought we all agreed on that.

So a 99.5% survival rate….let that sink in a little.

Now factor in that, by cdc estimates, approx 20-30% of hospitalizations were “WITH” Covid, not “FORM” Covid, therefore you can conclude a % of Deaths were “WITH” not “FROM” lowering the IFR further.

All things many of us were accused of being Conspiracy Theorists for bringing up in 2020 which the CDC is now supporting.

 

[Grace T.]

This is a pretty funny statement. The CDC "encourages" providers to report into the NHSN. It's always been 100% voluntary to do so. They don't have the bandwidth to actually enforce anything.

To be honest, our vaccination rates could be way higher or way lower...they could be a little higher or a little lower...or they could be somewhere in the middle.

Your "database" is an inherently flawed system, as most data bases are that require human input. It's like OOOPS, I forgot to report last week, what should I report? Oh yea, that many....sure.

See how silly it all is? Bars/graphs, databases, swirling dervishes..... Let's focus on boosting who needs to be boosted, vaccinating those that need vaccinating. And about those masks...well, wear an N95 if you would like. But please wear them correctly, virtue signalling now allowed.

Think about it. You have a person named "John Smith". How do you merge search? Are you giving out your social when you get tested? Address (some people have multiple addresses not to mention work addresses as well)?

That's why you can do it on county sites which scan the barcode of your license and have access to the state data base. But even that's limited as it doesn't magically plug into some central federal merge site.

 

[Grace T.]

No interest? You just did.

Yawn.

 

[dad4]

So a 99.5% survival rate….let that sink in a little.

Yep. 99.5% survival rate. Also known as one death per 200 people.

World War 2 had a pretty good survival rate, too. Only 80M dead out of 2.3 billion. 97% survival rate. Guess it wasn’t so bad after all.

 

[Grace T.]

Yep. 99.5% survival rate. Also known as one death per 200 people.

World War 2 had a pretty good survival rate, too. Only 80M dead out of 2.3 billion. 97% survival rate. Guess it wasn’t so bad after all.

Like COVID, sort of depends who you are and where you are. A Jewish person in Poland....not so much. A soldier on the Russian front....while death is the primary motivator there's a hell of lot of other things to worry about. A civilian in London during the blitz...despite the risk people went about their daily business keeping the factories open even though many, but not all, of the children were sent to the countryside and they held very many sleepless nights. An Inca villager in the Andies....you had a pretty good life and WWII touched on only the radio.

 

[dad4]

Think about it. You have a person named "John Smith". How do you merge search? Are you giving out your social when you get tested? Address (some people have multiple addresses not to mention work addresses as well)?

That's why you can do it on county sites which scan the barcode of your license and have access to the state data base. But even that's limited as it doesn't magically plug into some central federal merge site.

I give my insurance card when I get vaccinated or tested. So does everyone else who has insurance. It’s how they are doing the billing. They also asked for my driver’s license to verify my ID.

So, for 95% or more of the population, they have a primary key.

More work for the other 5%. You’re stuck using things like name + birthdate + zip code. But it works well enough.

 

[dad4]

Like COVID, sort of depends who you are and where you are. A Jewish person in Poland....not so much. A soldier on the Russian front....while death is the primary motivator there's a hell of lot of other things to worry about. A civilian in London during the blitz...despite the risk people went about their daily business keeping the factories open even though many, but not all, of the children were sent to the countryside and they held very many sleepless nights. An Inca villager in the Andies....you had a pretty good life and WWII touched on only the radio.

You mean WW2 was a real problem? But it had a 97% survival rate. Doesn’t a high survival rate mean we should ignore it?

As Kicker would say, “let that sink in a little”.

 

[espola]

Yawn.

And now you run away from your own words.

 

[Grace T.]

So does everyone else who has insurance. It’s how they are doing the billing. They also asked for my driver’s license to verify my ID.

No, not everyone is giving their insurance card. I agree though the number is probably in the ballpark of five to ten percent somewhere. No one is doing that extra work particularly since there is no intrastate network. I can't remember where I saw it but those people are just being lumped into the unvaccinated stat. The number is probably larger is smaller states with many neighbors or states with many visitors like Hawaii than it is in California.

 

[Grace T.]

You mean WW2 was a real problem? But it had a 97% survival rate. Doesn’t a high survival rate mean we should ignore it?

As Kicker would say, “let that sink in a little”.

I'm saying it depends, much like COVID, on who you are. My mother had a very pleasant WWII...some of her fondest memories....thank you very much.

 

[Grace T.]

And now you run away from your own words.

Yawn.

 

[Hüsker Dü]

I did way up above (way back when when espola was calling it a fantasy). This is old news. Yawn. Have no interest in relitigating it or trying to save you from your delusions. And it’s a spread btw because the data is so bad…most reliable we have is the observations of docs and hospital admins plus the death revisions several states made.

Old faux news, do it again. Seems what’s “news” to you is sometimes quickly dismissed as agenda driven rhetoric to the rest of the world. You are free to believe what you want, others of us like to see the cold hard facts. Squirm as you might to get your way, that doesn’t change anything out here.

 

[Hüsker Dü]

No interest? You just did.

“Tried to”

 

[soccersc]

Yep. 99.5% survival rate. Also known as one death per 200 people.

World War 2 had a pretty good survival rate, too. Only 80M dead out of 2.3 billion. 97% survival rate. Guess it wasn’t so bad after all.

Such a bad argument...there is survival rates in everything you do everyday, if you are going to calculate the odds of dying for everything you do, you might as well lock yourself in the house. Preventable causes of death 1 in 24 haha really and you talk about numbers, you are 10x's more likely to die of some preventable cause than you are of Covid...such a bad argument

Lifetime odds of death for selected causes, United States, 2019
Cause of Death	Odds of Dying
Heart disease	1 in 6
Cancer	1 in 7
All preventable causes of death	1 in 24
Chronic lower respiratory disease	1 in 27
Suicide	1 in 88
Opioid overdose	1 in 92
Fall	1 in 106
Motor-vehicle crash	1 in 107
Gun assault	1 in 289

 

[Hüsker Dü]

Like COVID, sort of depends who you are and where you are. A Jewish person in Poland....not so much. A soldier on the Russian front....while death is the primary motivator there's a hell of lot of other things to worry about. A civilian in London during the blitz...despite the risk people went about their daily business keeping the factories open even though many, but not all, of the children were sent to the countryside and they held very many sleepless nights. An Inca villager in the Andies....you had a pretty good life and WWII touched on only the radio.

Think long term Covid, now let that sink in. Lol!

 

[espola]

“Tried to”

I'm saying that memory of that transaction depends, much like COVID, on who you are. I have a very pleasant memory of G looking foolish....one of my fondest memories....thank you very much.

 

[soccersc]

Think long term Covid, now let that sink in. Lol!

Long term Covid..LOL Maybe that's kinda like the vaccine will eliminate the virus HAHA

 

[EvilGoalie 21]

Show me the 40/60 number for summer 2020, back when Fox started making the claim and you all started parroting it.

Not sure how your original question got sucked into the over count thing. It has very little impact on the epidemiology. Fodder for rage clicking and cable news bobble heads so I guess fun to argue about. The mortality over count, however, is one I haven't seen trotted out since the bleach and bright light days.

Your question, as I took it, was whether the early rise in the case rate for vaxxed compared to unvaxxed was apparent or real. A numerical issue or reflective of the epidmiology/immunology? I thought it was an interesting question; thanks for pointing it out. Last night I pulled the case load data ("weekly update breakthoughs" folders) from the NYC site to look at it. The graph below is what i get for the change in case# (not rate) week to week during omicron in NYC. Takeaways IMO. 1) Even when viewed as straight up change in case load, vaxx holds up amazingly well, which is good. 2) omicron burns like prairie fire 3) I think the early rise in the unvaxx RATE is likely more apparent than real. The rate graphs shown earlier express the relative rates as per 100K so they are directly comparable for equivalently sized groups. But in the data set those groups are not the same size, which is of course the sampling issue that brings the denominator problem up in the first place. So to do per 100K rates you have to change the numerator to "pull" or "push" the numbers. That requires numerator shifts of different proportions between the two groups because the case count is so lower with the vaxx population. So, the way to look at the per 100K graphs is "IF there were equivalent groups of 100K, these are the estimated rates we would expect to see based on our sample". At least that's my take away. And it also emphasizes one thing I have tried to stress, which is that if you want the best estimate of VE you need to do random sampling so you can calculate odds instead of rates. The UK data is still the best AFAIK for omicron in this regard.

 

[Hüsker Dü]

No, not everyone is giving their insurance card. I agree though the number is probably in the ballpark of five to ten percent somewhere. No one is doing that extra work particularly since there is no intrastate network. I can't remember where I saw it but those people are just being lumped into the unvaccinated stat. The number is probably larger is smaller states with many neighbors or states with many visitors like Hawaii than it is in California.

So can we all now claim things we “don’t remember where I saw it”? SMH