Vaccine

[dad4]

he might trot out this meta study the left leaning papers have been circulating to trumpet a 53% reduction by masks! (which BTW, would mean masks really are better than vaccines). What they don't tell you it's just a meta study (which means garbage input from some garbage studies, including 3 Chinese propaganda studies which were widely panned, means garbage output) and even in the footnotes there's an acknowledgement that the best studies seem to indicate about a 10% reduction (which would be right in line with what I've been saying) and perhaps more if better masks were used.

Mask-wearing linked to 53% cut in Covid incidence, global study finds

Researchers said results highlight the need to continue with face coverings, social distancing and handwashing alongside vaccine programmes

www.theguardian.com

My point is not really about 10% versus 20% versus 53%.

My point is that even a 10% change to transmissibility is far, far larger than you understand. You think a 10% change to transmissibility means a 10% change to total cases. That isn’t what it means at all.

For the US, a 10% change to transmissibility is the difference between a disease which infects 30 million people and a disease which goes nowhere. That’s the same as the difference between the 2018/19 flu and the 2020/21 flu.

 

[Grace T.]

My point is not really about 10% versus 20% versus 53%.

My point is that even a 10% change to transmissibility is far, far larger than you understand. You think a 10% change to transmissibility means a 10% change to total cases. That isn’t what it means at all.

For the US, a 10% change to transmissibility is the difference between a disease which infects 30 million people and a disease which goes nowhere. That’s the same as the difference between the 2018/19 flu and the 2020/21 flu.

This is a good point and the experts themselves have been confusing it (it is in fact a criticism of the study which is circulating that the authors of it do not understand the distinction either, nor the guardian, which is where the laughable figure of 53% came from....if the reduction were 53% to the R, the disease would be gone by now). Thanks for panning the study!

 

[what-happened]

Not everything in that list is equal. Measles killed about 400-500 people per year before the vaccine. Covid has already killed 750,000. By any measure, covid is a lot worse than measles.

For scale, my kids got the chicken pox vaccine. That wasn’t because I had some deep seated fear of chicken pox. I’ve had shots, and I’ve had chicken pox. Chicken pox is worse. Decision made.

We don’t know yet what it will take to develop long term immunity for covid. Three shots? Five shots, like DTaP? Annual, like flu? Perhaps a good virologist can read the literature and tell us. I don’t think anyone knows yet.

Nobody knows.

 

[Desert Hound]

Speaking of nobody knows...we still don't know if there are long term bad effects of the vax.

Is the Swedish study correct? We don't know yet. But that kind of is the point. There are lots of things we don't know about the vax and its long term effects.

It is precisely because we are learning more things as time goes by, that we should not mandate a vax to the public. Especially to those groups who have no risk of the virus.


Meanwhile, the U.K. government's own figures suggest some COVID vaccines reduce the protection from previous infection.

In a vaccine surveillance report last month, the Health Security Agency said recent data showed "post-infection antibodies," distinct from those created by vaccination, "appear to be lower in individuals who acquire infection following 2 doses of vaccination."

A peer-reviewed study in the journal Viruses, published by the Swiss open access publisher MDPI, raises questions about potential side effects from current mRNA vaccines because they use "full-length" spike proteins.

Researchers at Swedish universities said they found the spike protein in the virus itself "significantly inhibits DNA damage repair," which is crucial for "adaptive immunity." Hence, it may be "safer and more efficacious" for COVID vaccine development to focus on using "antigenic epitopes of the spike" rather than the full-length spike.

 

[met61]

Don’t forget a future shingles shot! What’s in that? Duuuuuh

...for starters, long term studies and a calculated deliberate approval process.

 

[espola]

Speaking of nobody knows...we still don't know if there are long term bad effects of the vax.

We also don't know if there are long-term bad effects of the infection (other than death of course).

 

[watfly]

Don’t forget a future shingles shot! What’s in that? Duuuuuh

That's on my to do list, before I get a booster.

 

[what-happened]

We also don't know if there are long-term bad effects of the infection (other than death of course).

What a silly argument all of this is. Mandates aren't going to work in this country. We can scream at patients all day long about their health, they will do what they want to do. Most will do what their provider tells them, some won't. It's where we are with vaccines. Rates have certainly leveled. Dragging your 5-11 yr old to get vaxxed will certainly drive up #s. Kinda crazy if you stop to think about. Plenty of sciency people are horrified by the idea of mandating a vaccine for a segment of the population that doesn't even need it. I hope we get a South Park episode out of this.

 

[Grace T.]

Interesting things afoot. Belgium despite a 75% vaxxed rate for it's population, a mask mandate, a remote work mandate and having been hit among the hardest in Europe in previous waves, while doing better than its neighbors, is still doing this.....

Belgium COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Belgium Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

By contrast Sweden with a 75% vaxx rate, a vaxx mandate, and a heavy outbreak, but very loose early restrictions is doing this. Incidentally it's the only one of its neighbors which is not undergoing a spike right now, with Denmark, Norway, Finland, Germany and the Netherlands all spiking, including been either near or at records for their case counts. Swedes looks like they might have been right from the beginning....the lockdowns just pushed the outbreaks later in time if this holds up.

Sweden COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Sweden Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

Spain, which had 4 prior waves, is also starting a wave now, but not as severe as some of its neighbors. Spain also has 80% of its population vaxxed

Spain COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Spain Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

Sweden and Spain seem to indicate the way out of this (at least if this holds up) is a high vaxx rate + natural immunity (which means steps to avoid infection such as NPIs would be contraindicated and only prolong the suffering)

There is virtually no doubt the United States is heading into another wave with the open question how bad

United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

Canada's wave has plateaued similar to England's

Canada COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Canada Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

 

[Grace T.]

Good thread on boosters....the big question is how long they last (early anecdotes suggest good results)....problem is if folks like Kicking and Gummi are reluctant to get boosters, this is the last bite at the apple....if it turns out repeated boosters are need you will have completely shred public trust....the definition of fully vaxxed will be changed to include the boosted.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1461374201474998275

Why I've Decided to Not Get the Booster

It's over and I'm not legitimizing these bullshit policies

gummibear737.substack.com

 

[Grace T.]

What a silly argument all of this is. Mandates aren't going to work in this country. We can scream at patients all day long about their health, they will do what they want to do. Most will do what their provider tells them, some won't. It's where we are with vaccines. Rates have certainly leveled. Dragging your 5-11 yr old to get vaxxed will certainly drive up #s. Kinda crazy if you stop to think about. Plenty of sciency people are horrified by the idea of mandating a vaccine for a segment of the population that doesn't even need it. I hope we get a South Park episode out of this.

The new South Park fast forwards to when the kids are adults. They are flashing back to how they grew up post pandemic. It will be behind the Paramount Plus pay wall exclusively, at least at first, dropping Thanksgiving.

 

[whatithink]

Not everything in that list is equal. Measles killed about 400-500 people per year before the vaccine. Covid has already killed 750,000. By any measure, covid is a lot worse than measles.

For scale, my kids got the chicken pox vaccine. That wasn’t because I had some deep seated fear of chicken pox. I’ve had shots, and I’ve had chicken pox. Chicken pox is worse. Decision made.

We don’t know yet what it will take to develop long term immunity for covid. Three shots? Five shots, like DTaP? Annual, like flu? Perhaps a good virologist can read the literature and tell us. I don’t think anyone knows yet.

Measles went away in most developed countries because of vaccinations, but not in every country. Its like polio went away in most developed countries because of vaccinations, but not in every country. That's not saying that measles or polio vanished everywhere. The articles points to a 95% benchmark to "eliminate" measles.

Measles cases hit 23-year high last year, killing 200,000 as vaccination stalls, WHO says | | UN News

 

[espola]

Mandates aren't going to work in this country.

What a silly argument that is.

 

[what-happened]

What a silly argument that is.

Why?

 

[crush]

Marines and sailors who refuse the COVID-19 shot will be discharged, will lose some GI Bill benefits-
Active-duty Marines must be fully vaccinated by Nov. 28, and reservists must be fully vaccinated by Dec. 28, the Navy has set a similar timeline.

 

[crush]

 

[Bruddah IZ]

dad is going to tell you they work at 80%.

It is like arguing religion with a true believer.

Dad is the "low quality" the article speaks about. He's eloquently clueless like Husker.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

If you‘re going to accuse me of being bad at math, at least get your facts straight.

It is not “post vaccine” for the areas with a lot of measles deaths. Those deaths occur in the 1/6 of the world which is not vaccinated.

Now, can you make your point with the real facts? in 2018, 140,000 people in unvaccinated areas died of measles. The total incompletely population is about 1.1 billion. Never vaccinated population is about 1.3 billion.

Hard to make that stand up to the 15 million people the Economist estimates have died from covid. You’re wrong by about 2 orders of magnitude.

You can add in several years of measles, because endemic. But then you have to add in the next several years of covid, for the same reason. You’re still wrong by a factor of ten.

No source.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

We also don't know if there are long-term bad effects of the infection (other than death of course).

Well, there is the world population approaching 8 billion during a deadly worldwide pandemic.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

What a silly argument that is.

Agree! I remember how well mandates worked during the last pandemic.