Vaccine

Native Americans make up 5% of the AZ population and 12% of the Covid deaths. That's disproportionately high, but doesn't really explain the higher death rate in AZ - its a (minor) factor.

Most of the public HS that kids on my son's team went to were closed for a large portion of the school year. Charter & private schools followed their own paths, excluding a few weeks at the start of the school year as you said. Most every school, that I'm aware of also had an online learning option and so followed a hybrid model with mask mandates in school.

Fwiw, I do think AZ has handled it better than CA, and I'm happy about that.

any unified theory of what happened in Arizona has to account for what happened in New Mexico as well. New Mexico did relatively well compared to Arizona but it's lockdowns were as harsh as California and they had a limited travel ban in place plus New Mexico (unlike Texas, AZ, and California) isn't really a surge zone for southern border crossings due to the location of its cities. Relative to California (with it's SoCal variant) or even neighboring Colorado (which pursued a much more moderate policy) it's not a good outcome.
 
any unified theory of what happened in Arizona has to account for what happened in New Mexico as well. New Mexico did relatively well compared to Arizona but it's lockdowns were as harsh as California and they had a limited travel ban in place plus New Mexico (unlike Texas, AZ, and California) isn't really a surge zone for southern border crossings due to the location of its cities. Relative to California (with it's SoCal variant) or even neighboring Colorado (which pursued a much more moderate policy) it's not a good outcome.

its != it's
 
any unified theory of what happened in Arizona has to account for what happened in New Mexico as well. New Mexico did relatively well compared to Arizona but it's lockdowns were as harsh as California and they had a limited travel ban in place plus New Mexico (unlike Texas, AZ, and California) isn't really a surge zone for southern border crossings due to the location of its cities. Relative to California (with it's SoCal variant) or even neighboring Colorado (which pursued a much more moderate policy) it's not a good outcome.
I'm not sure what correlation you are trying to make with New Mexico tbh. 75% of the Covid deaths in AZ were in Maricopa, Pima & Pinal counties (none border NM). That correlates to population density imv and not New Mexico and not Indian reservations. Add in the 3 western counties which border CA and which don't have a large reservation footprint, and you get to 85% of the AZ deaths. Native American deaths are disproportionately high, but not a primary driver of the AZ deaths.
 
any unified theory of what happened in Arizona has to account for what happened in New Mexico as well. New Mexico did relatively well compared to Arizona but it's lockdowns were as harsh as California and they had a limited travel ban in place plus New Mexico (unlike Texas, AZ, and California) isn't really a surge zone for southern border crossings due to the location of its cities. Relative to California (with it's SoCal variant) or even neighboring Colorado (which pursued a much more moderate policy) it's not a good outcome.
I was up in Claremont this past Sunday having lunch with the Outlaws. Thai place over by where all the smart people go to college. It was insane Grace T. Mask on everywhere. I estimate 95% masked up. Not mandated but understood to be cool one needs to follow orders. Mask & Jabs is the new normal and this town of future Pros is showing us how to be nice with a mask on. It's just the right thing to do. My wife and I decided not to wear a mask and no one said a word and all were so nice. My wife was complimented on how young she looked and her smile of light. I think many of these people are just going to live this way, you know the way, the way of just being used to Pandemics every year. You will never hear about the flu season ever again in this new normal. It will be Covid 19 for now and them some Pox poison later, that Tony and Billy come up that will scare even me to move to the outdoors. The city life is starting to look like it always has: Controlled love & make believe friendships. This kind of relationship is fake and only works if you roll your sleeve up for the fake team and take boosters for ever, all so your fake friends will accept you. I believe this is all an act to force vax passport to enter shows and sporting events in the future. No proof, no entry. I could be wrong. Howard Stern is pissed off and does not like liars.

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I'm not sure what correlation you are trying to make with New Mexico tbh. 75% of the Covid deaths in AZ were in Maricopa, Pima & Pinal counties (none border NM). That correlates to population density imv and not New Mexico and not Indian reservations. Add in the 3 western counties which border CA and which don't have a large reservation footprint, and you get to 85% of the AZ deaths. Native American deaths are disproportionately high, but not a primary driver of the AZ deaths.

Yet NM underperformed, relative to similar states with similar restrictions (and in California the SoCal variant).
 
I'm not sure what correlation you are trying to make with New Mexico tbh. 75% of the Covid deaths in AZ were in Maricopa, Pima & Pinal counties (none border NM). That correlates to population density imv and not New Mexico and not Indian reservations. Add in the 3 western counties which border CA and which don't have a large reservation footprint, and you get to 85% of the AZ deaths. Native American deaths are disproportionately high, but not a primary driver of the AZ deaths.
I think the point is you have 2 states that neighbor each other. They took vastly different routes in terms of gov intervention. NM in many cases had more restrictions vs CA. And yet NM and AZ ended up in roughly the same situation.

That tells you it isn't gov intervention driving the difference. That also means the differences in regions likely come down to more the overall health of the population, the age of the population, etc.

And then you can look at other states.

CA for instance. Why is that other states with similar cases per million have in some cases much more deaths per million and other less per million?

It likely again relates to the demographics of the various states.
 
any unified theory of what happened in Arizona has to account for what happened in New Mexico as well. New Mexico did relatively well compared to Arizona but it's lockdowns were as harsh as California and they had a limited travel ban in place plus New Mexico (unlike Texas, AZ, and California) isn't really a surge zone for southern border crossings due to the location of its cities. Relative to California (with it's SoCal variant) or even neighboring Colorado (which pursued a much more moderate policy) it's not a good outcome.
To understand NM, you need to look at what changed in Sept 2020. Cases, hospitalizations, and deaths were low in NM from March to September.

Then, around mid September, cases took off on a 2 month exponential. Levels jumped 30X, settled at 20X.

Makes you wonder what changed in NM in early September 2020.
 
...with over 300 pages, aside from the simpleton comments sure to follow, is anyone willing to admit they sincerely had their mind changed by anything on this thread?
 
To understand NM, you need to look at what changed in Sept 2020. Cases, hospitalizations, and deaths were low in NM from March to September.

Then, around mid September, cases took off on a 2 month exponential. Levels jumped 30X, settled at 20X.

Makes you wonder what changed in NM in early September 2020.
... I'd say more to do with the virus itself than NM or any states/countries... generally, Covid seems to be on a cycle with 60ish day spikes...not due to measures or lack thereof, but in spite of them. *Non-scientific of course, just my hypothesis.
 
Wow...the fear to what amount to a bad cold...seems more annoyed at the restrictions than anything from having a family member test positive....I'm still aghast that some people think zero COVID is still possible.

Reading that one just had to shake their heads.

He and his wife live in fear. They are training their kids to live in fear.

It is amazing to read his thought process about everything. And basically everything is scary.
 
Can’t talk LA with you guys. Every time, you want to compare a high density city with the cal.20C variant against some low density place with the base C variant.

So, you want to run a 1v1 comparison, but you refuse to acknowledge that you picked two places with two different diseases. No discussion is possible under those terms.
Mandates don’t require scientific discussions
 
There's little doubt in my mind that the vaccine is useful but the way it is presented in this story gives a false sense of how useful it is.

"Only 3% of 1.5 million positive COVID-19 tests examined since mid-January occurred in people who were already vaccinated."

Mid-January? What percent were vaccinated in mid-January? It was also changing pretty quickly at that point as well. It would give a much clearer picture of the current usefulness of the vaccine if they also gave the numbers since the last surge starting about mid-July. At that point, the number of people vaccinated was not changing quickly, and those who wanted to get the vaccine had ample opportunity to do so.
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...with over 300 pages, aside from the simpleton comments sure to follow, is anyone willing to admit they sincerely had their mind changed by anything on this thread?
Sure. Not all of them recent, but-

-Cloth masks are significantly less effective than medical.

-Public NPI strategies are less effective than they seem. Even if they have a tremendous impact outside the home, the net impact is less because the inside the home transmissibility stays the same.

-The restrictions on outdoor activity went way too far, and may have actually increased transmission.

-Overall we were way too hard on kids and way too easy on adults.

-At some point, give up on the expensive NPI. The cost is the same, but you’ve already infected so many people there isn’t much benefit left to be had.

How about you?
 
Well, everything other than never-ending governmental "emergency" powers. That's comforting as history has shown there's nothing to be afraid of in that scenario.

Don't worry, those types of people will be fine....close them blinds and down your pill(s). The government (pharma) will make sure you are taken care of and appropriantly reliant on their services.
 
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