Vaccine

[dad4]

Again, it depends on what the definition of "work" is. The only country to deploy a true trace program was South Korea. Look at what Korea did starting in November. There's also a clear line where the Delta makes it worse.

South Korea COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

South Korea Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

Japan did not have a trace program. It's tracing was a disaster so that's more B.S. that you are spouting without knowing the facts on the ground. If you are claiming Japan and South Korea did similarly, then you have to discount for trace which was not part of the Japanese equation due to a poor testing program.

That leaves you with masks + distance (or disavowing Japan now despite citing them earlier). Europe had a high mask compliance and harder lockdowns. Why didn't it work there? (oh yeah, you said it's because they relaxed). Well, Los Angeles had indoor and outdoor with over 98% compliance and closed indoor dining....why didn't it work there? Oh yeah, you said it was because of density....but Seoul, Tokyo and Singapore are also equally dense.

So the answer isn't "tracing". The answer also can't just be 100% "masks". And the answer can't just be well Los Angeles is different because of density. It has to be something else.

self reported compliance means nothing, even if it is 98%.

Look back to the Nigeria study on mask use. (referenced in the bangladesh study). Self reported mask use was 90%. But, if you actually went to Lagos and looked at people, 10% had masks on.

We all wash our hands with soap, too. Just ask us. But don’t ask the guy who changes the soap dispenser.

 

[Grace T.]

self reported compliance means nothing, even if it is 98%.

Look back to the Nigeria study on mask use. (referenced in the bangladesh study). Self reported mask use was 90%. But, if you actually went to Lagos and looked at people, 10% had masks on.

We all wash our hands with soap, too. Just ask us. But don’t ask the guy who changes the soap dispenser.

It’s always something with you. You couldn’t go into a supermarket, medical building or hair salon without being masked in Los Angeles much less a bus train or plane. The supermarkets even have security guards at the entrances enforcing it. I’m frankly surprised it’s as low as all that. In all that time I never saw someone over 6 breaking the mask mandate that wasn’t kicked out of the location and I only ever saw two people kicked out. My kid even got screamed at once in the supermarket for not standing behind some blue tape.

where the issues are is where mask mandates don’t do very much good: in the home, meeting friends, the underground hair salons, indoor dining and bars, people cheating like on job sites with noses peaking out. Now you can argue Asians wouldn’t do such things. I don’t know if that’s true or note (it’s definitely not true with Indians though which means you have an India problem with your theory pre delta)…but people should be more Asian is not a policy prescription.

 

[dad4]

It’s always something with you. You couldn’t go into a supermarket, medical building or hair salon without being masked in Los Angeles much less a bus train or plane. The supermarkets even have security guards at the entrances enforcing it. I’m frankly surprised it’s as low as all that. In all that time I never saw someone over 6 breaking the mask mandate that wasn’t kicked out of the location and I only ever saw two people kicked out. My kid even got screamed at once in the supermarket for not standing behind some blue tape.

where the issues are is where mask mandates don’t do very much good: in the home, meeting friends, the underground hair salons, indoor dining and bars, people cheating like on job sites with noses peaking out. Now you can argue Asians wouldn’t do such things. I don’t know if that’s true or note (it’s definitely not true with Indians though which means you have an India problem with your theory pre delta)…but people should be more Asian is not a policy prescription.

We don’t have to guess. There are people who study things like that. When people in Tokyo got together in summer 2020, did they meet a restaurants or outside? How is that different from people in LA or Cairo?

The trouble is, what do you do if it turns out that people in Seoul and Tokyo put on masks and went outside when meeting friends? Do you actually admit that there is a cultural difference that may have resulted in different rates of transmission? Or do you stick to your guns and ignore the evidence because it is inconvenient?

All you can say is “people in LA wore masks a lot, relative to what Grace would expect.”. That is different from saying “Camera images show hat mask usage in LA was similar to mask usage in Tokyo.”.

 

[Grace T.]

We don’t have to guess. There are people who study things like that. When people in Tokyo got together in summer 2020, did they meet a restaurants or outside? How is that different from people in LA or Cairo?

The trouble is, what do you do if it turns out that people in Seoul and Tokyo put on masks and went outside when meeting friends? Do you actually admit that there is a cultural difference that may have resulted in different rates of transmission? Or do you stick to your guns and ignore the evidence because it is inconvenient?

All you can say is “people in LA wore masks a lot, relative to what Grace would expect.”. That is different from saying “Camera images show hat mask usage in LA was similar to mask usage in Tokyo.”.

Again be more asian is not a policy prescription. There is no government lever that can be pushed to recreate that short of australia. If that’s what you are down to…that Asians wore mask better (better than a heavily blue city with strict compliance in business settings) because of cultural differences…then you are preaching again instead of doing policy.

 

[dad4]

Again be more asian is not a policy prescription. There is no government lever that can be pushed to recreate that short of australia. If that’s what you are down to…that Asians wore mask better (better than a heavily blue city with strict compliance in business settings) because of cultural differences…then you are preaching again instead of doing policy.

It wasn’t a policy prescription. It was a description of why some wealthy countries did well and some wealthy countries did poorly.

You seem really proud of LA having compliance in business settings. Apparently, wearing a mask at Von’s to buy beer for the indoor party at home was not sufficient. You can try to learn from that, or you can make up some story about the gospel of being asian.

Pocky?

 

[Grace T.]

It wasn’t a policy prescription. It was a description of why some wealthy countries did well and some wealthy countries did poorly.

You seem really proud of LA having compliance in business settings. Apparently, wearing a mask at Von’s to buy beer for the indoor party at home was not sufficient. You can try to learn from that, or you can make up some story about the gospel of being asian.

Pocky?

Again I’m evaluating policy given the people we have, you are doing religion: “you can try and learn from that”. You get the culture and country you have…not the one you want…if you feel so strongly about it there is a remedy…move to Japan…added benefit they have good women’s soccer for your dd. Just also know none of those countries were able to “control” coronavirus…in the end the virus won everywhere…you are now down to arguing by how much.

Ps you know I’m not proud of la…pretty much all of its measures were for naught as despite them all it still had one of the worst performances in the world and contributed to dragging down the us average. It is the Czechia of the Us.

 

[crush]

Red October is finally here. My old friend from church out in Temecula posted on Fake Book last might that his wife just got the boot from saying no to the jab. She was frontline worker who took a chance with her life early on to help others is now being told she is disobedient and not a team player and is canned. 24 years at the same place. My pal is a retired Marine and did many tours risking his life for us over there and this is the thanks this family gets. This is real folks and it makes sense now what these liars have been up to. TGIFF!!!

 

[dad4]

Again I’m evaluating policy given the people we have, you are doing religion: “you can try and learn from that”. You get the culture and country you have…not the one you want…if you feel so strongly about it there is a remedy…move to Japan…added benefit they have good women’s soccer for your dd. Just also know none of those countries were able to “control” coronavirus…in the end the virus won everywhere…you are now down to arguing by how much.

Ps you know I’m not proud of la…pretty much all of its measures were for naught as despite them all it still had one of the worst performances in the world and contributed to dragging down the us average. It is the Czechia of the Us.

You say that no country was able to keep covid in check.

Then we talk about countries like Japan (1/13 as many deaths per capita) and Singapore (1/150 as many deaths per capita.)

Are you truly incapable of connecting the two thoughts? You are denying the existence of the exact thing you are discussing.

Enjoy some squid chips. They’re pretty good. Don’t forget to eat them outside and put your mask on when you’re done.

 

[watfly]

It dawned on me that trying to claim why some countries did better with Covid is like trying to claim why some countries have better men's national soccer teams. The US would have a better soccer results if it only followed the development model of __________(insert successful soccer country here). The reality with both Covid and Soccer is that culture has a tremendous influence on the results of both.

 

[met61]

You say that no country was able to keep covid in check.

Then we talk about countries like Japan (1/13 as many deaths per capita) and Singapore (1/150 as many deaths per capita.)

Are you truly incapable of connecting the two thoughts? You are denying the existence of the exact thing you are discussing.

Enjoy some squid chips. They’re pretty good. Don’t forget to eat them outside and put your mask on when you’re done.

...for every mask study you have there are 10x more examples of politicians, celebs, elites etc. not practicing what they preach and mandate... hell, to this day the damn White House isn't 100% vaxxed...not to mention, Hollywood award shows back to full strength maskless... broadcasting in our face as they hug, kiss and bloviate as usual...while my kids sit in class all day masked.

Yet there you are, a compliant little sheep lecturing others and demanding others live your cowardly lifestyle. You may be smart, but you lack the wisdom to know you are being played!

Oh, BTW...you can take my mask...roll it up, bend over, insert, and light it up.

 

[kickingandscreaming]

Delta is on its way out rather quickly in the US. Cases are over 1/3 lower than the peak (in about a month). A quick review of CDC cases shows AK, ID, ME, MI, NH, and ND are the only states that haven't reached their apparent peak. Many are dropping precipitously. Given the previous waves, I'd guess we'd be down to less than a 1/3 of peak by Halloween.

I'm optimistic given that delta was a smaller wave, had a higher R, a lower rate of death, and our personal interactions as a country were much higher than last year. I'd also guess that cases of delta are significantly under-reported since the symptoms are often mild in children and there is no incentive for parents to report any illness.

 

[Desert Hound]

Delta is on its way out rather quickly in the US. Cases are over 1/3 lower than the peak (in about a month). A quick review of CDC cases shows AK, ID, ME, MI, NH, and ND are the only states that haven't reached their apparent peak. Many are dropping precipitously. Given the previous waves, I'd guess we'd be down to less than a 1/3 of peak by Halloween.

I'm optimistic given that delta was a smaller wave, had a higher R, a lower rate of death, and our personal interactions as a country were much higher than last year. I'd also guess that cases of delta are significantly under-reported since the symptoms are often mild in children and there is no incentive for parents to report any illness.

And not per usual...long after the delta peaked here in the US (around Aug 27 was the peak), cities, etc are now tightening things up (see LA/LA County as one example). They are trying to fight something that is already on the way out.

Typical gov and typical gov response.

 

[Desert Hound]

And as a further thought...

These mandates...vaxx passports, masking in bars, etc do nothing.

The people getting sick and dying are still those who are old and have serious health issues. That group makes up more than 80% of all deaths. The other 20%? Again generally speaking people who already have serious health issues.

These people generally speaking are not the ones hanging out in schools, playing soccer, going out for drinks at the bar, etc. And yet these places are the ones being told...make sure people mask up or have proof of vaxx to enter.

Those efforts wont make any noticeable difference on what the virus does.

 

[Desert Hound]

News in America used to be fun to talk about, fun to joke about, interesting to think about. Now it’s an interminable bummer, because the press business has taken on characteristics of that other institution where talking, joking, and thinking aren’t allowed: church. We have two denominations, both as fact-averse as real churches, as is shown in polls about, say, pandemic attitudes, where Americans across the board consistently show they know less than they think.

Surveys found a third of Republicans think the asymptomatic don’t transmit Covid-19, or that the disease kills fewer people than the flu or car crashes. But Democrats also test out atrociously, with 41% thinking Covid-19 patients end up hospitalized over half the time — the real number is 1%-5% — while also wildly overestimating dangers to children, the percentage of Covid deaths under the age of 65, the efficacy of masks, and other issues.

---

America is a now a nation of warring media faiths, with Fox/OAN/Newsmax preaching a heretic Savanarola-style gospel of corrupt elites lying about everything from election results to vaccine efficacy, while the rival Church of the Mainstream, which describes itself as the (literally) true faith and exclusive arbiter of such things as “fact” and “science,” preaches a coming fascist apocalypse. Its pundits openly rejoice in Covid-19 as an instrument of vengeance against “denialism” and those who don’t “believe science,” and it’s not an accident that people who watch them too much do things like wear masks alone in cars.

The News is America's New Religion, and We're in a Religious War

When political narrative replaces faith, truth becomes heresy

taibbi.substack.com

 

[kickingandscreaming]

And not per usual...long after the delta peaked here in the US (around Aug 27 was the peak), cities, etc are now tightening things up (see LA/LA County as one example). They are trying to fight something that is already on the way out.

Typical gov and typical gov response.

I was thinking the same thing.

 

[Grace T.]

You say that no country was able to keep covid in check.

Then we talk about countries like Japan (1/13 as many deaths per capita) and Singapore (1/150 as many deaths per capita.)

Are you truly incapable of connecting the two thoughts? You are denying the existence of the exact thing you are discussing.

Enjoy some squid chips. They’re pretty good. Don’t forget to eat them outside and put your mask on when you’re done.

"keep covid in check". Again:

1. If "keep covid in check" means reducing the number of deaths per capita, how far you've fallen. Remember when everyone was advocating for COVID zero? So all we are arguing now is a matter of degrees.
2. Then we have to look at "well could the US have done better". Your argument now amounts to that people should have become Asian. That's not something that can be replicated. That's not policy. You are doing religion again.
3. You argument neglects that there may be other factors at play than even just masks (such as prior exposures or you know just Asians being better about not going out sick or the fact they may not be as touchy feely as the rest of the world).

It's funny your blinders have taken you to this. You are arguing about things which were out of control now from the leadership and couldn't have been changed. Let alone that you are back to masks outsides.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

Grace, you don't need any special explanation for why mask+trace+distance worked for prime but not for Delta.

That is exactly what the models predict.

For any 70-85% effective NPI program: it works great for R<3, but is not quite enough for R>6.

You only need another explanation if you can't get your brain around the tipping point at R=1 and 1-1/R.

Nonsense

 

[Bruddah IZ]

You say that no country was able to keep covid in check.

Then we talk about countries like Japan (1/13 as many deaths per capita) and Singapore (1/150 as many deaths per capita.)

Are you truly incapable of connecting the two thoughts? You are denying the existence of the exact thing you are discussing.

Enjoy some squid chips. They’re pretty good. Don’t forget to eat them outside and put your mask on when you’re done.

Healthy immune systems make for low covid deaths. Just like in the U.S. You’re Still ignoring those facts.

 

[watfly]

Evolution of our Covid policy:

1) Do as we say

2) Shut up, and do as we say

3) Shut up, and do as we say, or be fired

And despite doing what they say and compliance from the vast majority, Covid continues to do its own thing. "Just stay at home to flatten the curve", "just wear a mask", "just get a vaccine and you won't have to wear mask"

 

[Grace T.]

Having had an RSV infection (which is rarely reported in adults...usually striking hard only the very young and very old) that led to long RSV (just beginning to get back to normal now 3 months later) I can attest immunity debt is a thing.....

MSN

www.msn.com

 

[Desert Hound]

Having had an RSV infection (which is rarely reported in adults...usually striking hard only the very young and very old) that led to long RSV (just beginning to get back to normal now 3 months later) I can attest immunity debt is a thing.....

MSN

www.msn.com

More unintended consequences of the lockdowns that did nothing to stop the spread of the virus.