OC practice paused

[kickingandscreaming]

Any discussion about mathematical equations related to herd immunity at this point in the pandemic is premature.

"Let’s say the R0 for COVID-19 is 2.5, meaning each infected person infects, on average, two and a half other people (a common estimate). In that case, the herd immunity threshold for COVID-19 is 0.6, or 60%. That means the virus will spread at an accelerating rate until, on average across different places, 60% of the population becomes immune."

The Tricky Math of Herd Immunity for COVID-19

Herd immunity differs from place to place, and many factors influence how it’s calculated.

www.quantamagazine.org

Excellent article. It gets beyond the basic example you show and then explains why some experts expect it to be less than 60% - some significantly so. Not sure which ones were already peer reviewed.

It addressed the idea that some people are more susceptible than others. However, I was disappointed they didn't address the "super spreader" idea that is out there and whether these folks are just at the wrong place at the wrong time (random) or if there is a strong correlation to behavior and being a super spreader. It is not much of a stretch to believe that a "super spreader" is also much more likely to get the virus as the behaviors to spread to others would match the behaviors to get the virus. If super spreaders exist and are more likely to catch the virus, that would definitely lead to a more significant early spike in cases and then a considerably lower "herd immunity" percentage than initially estimated as "super spreaders" catch the virus at a rate higher than the lower spreaders.

 

[Keepermom2]

Excellent article. It gets beyond the basic example you show and then explains why some experts expect it to be less than 60% - some significantly so. Not sure which ones were already peer reviewed.

It addressed the idea that some people are more susceptible than others. However, I was disappointed they didn't address the "super spreader" idea that is out there and whether these folks are just at the wrong place at the wrong time (random) or if there is a strong correlation to behavior and being a super spreader. It is not much of a stretch to believe that a "super spreader" is also much more likely to get the virus as the behaviors to spread to others would match the behaviors to get the virus. If super spreaders exist and are more likely to catch the virus, that would definitely lead to a more significant early spike in cases and then a considerably lower "herd immunity" percentage than initially estimated as "super spreaders" catch the virus at a rate higher than the lower spreaders.

The basic premise is that we don't have enough information yet.

 

[kickingandscreaming]

The basic premise is that we don't have enough information yet.

They'll have a better idea once it's all over ;-). For now, the rate of positive tests and hospital occupancy rates are enough to know what direction things are going.

 

[Grace T.]

Any discussion about mathematical equations related to herd immunity at this point in the pandemic is premature.

"Let’s say the R0 for COVID-19 is 2.5, meaning each infected person infects, on average, two and a half other people (a common estimate). In that case, the herd immunity threshold for COVID-19 is 0.6, or 60%. That means the virus will spread at an accelerating rate until, on average across different places, 60% of the population becomes immune."

The Tricky Math of Herd Immunity for COVID-19

Herd immunity differs from place to place, and many factors influence how it’s calculated.

www.quantamagazine.org

Herd immunity isn’t really the correct term. At a 20% refusal rate the vaccine isn’t going to get us to herd immunity. One thing is clear though. At about 15-20% penetration the thing does slow down. We don’t know yet why...is it because people freak out and ultra distance, some cross or T cell immunity, weather. We really don’t know. I’m skeptical it’s just because the governor shut indoor dining.

Was at 4 parks this weekend. 1 in moorpark had full blown adult and kids baseball game complete with uniforms. 1 soccer in Camarillo and 1 Agoura has teams scrimmaging with their full uniforms on (1 shut down and resumed when cops left). But van nuys was nuttiest. Several soccer pickup games, basketball and playground with the tape torn down, a full blown kids baseball game. Several bbqs. Cops standing their starring. Of course since exercising no masks...more dangerous than protests....social distancing is dead. Doubt governors puny measures are doing very much at this point.

 

[The Outlaw *BANNED*]

Sweden is having a much worse result than neighboring countries who imposed stricter measures.

Jury is still out, libtard. But you keep drumming up that fear. We're not even CLOSE to November yet.

Did Sweden's coronavirus strategy succeed or fail?

Despite global criticism, Sweden has seen a drop in serious Covid cases without ever having a lockdown.

www.bbc.com

 

[The Outlaw *BANNED*]

Now, now Luis, let's not be calling folks names. I did have a few dear friends here call me dam fool, idiot, a t supporter although I never vote, moocher, looking for handouts, club hopper, look in the mirror Jack, and now my favorite of all, a man crush with the Master Jedi wizard coach, the Great Tad I always liked you Luis. Welcome back. How's the camp looking for Monday?

Spicoli, how many clubs in how many years?

 

[The Outlaw *BANNED*]

After many unnecessary deaths.

Unnecessary deaths happen every day, Ebola. Should we stop getting out of bed or just until the election?

 

[The Outlaw *BANNED*]

Gavin Newsom’s $3.7 Million Estate Was Gifted to Him in 2019; 3 Months Later He Got a $2.7 Million Tax Free Cash-Out
Posted at 5:00 pm on July 25, 2020 by Jennifer Van Laar
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Gavin Newsom’s $3.7 million, 12,000 square foot mansion, on 8+ acres along the American River in Sacramento, was the area’s most expensive home sale in 2018
The gated estate consists of a 6 bedroom/10 bath home, a guest house, a pool, a tennis court, and a wine cave
An LLC registered to Newsom’s cousin, long-time business partner, and Co-President of PlumpJack, Jeremy Scherer, paid cash for the estate in December 2018
Newsom’s spox, though, claimed in Jan 2019 that it was Newsom who’d paid cash for the home – puzzling, since Newsom still carried a $3.2 million mortgage on his prior home
In Oct 2019 the LLC gifted the home to the Newsoms free and clear, claiming Newsom was a member of the LLC to avoid a $4,000 Transfer Tax
In January 2020 the Newsoms received $2.7 million tax-free when they obtained a cash-out refinance
Newsom’s financial disclosure forms don’t mention the LLC or the gifts, which far exceed the $500 limit
In 2003, Newsom was cited for failing to disclose $11 million in real estate and business loans
One thing that’s become extraordinarily clear to Californians in 2020 is that there’s one set of rules for Gov. Gavin Newsom, and there’s another set of rules for the rest of us. He preaches that we’re all in this together and that we have to sacrifice to “meet this moment,” yet he’s not missing a paycheck.

As California businesses struggle, he sends a $1 billion contract for masks to a Chinese company. When he shut down wineries throughout 80 percent of California, he kept his open.

While the dream of owning a home is increasingly out of reach for California’s families, it appears that Newsom received a $3.7 million estate from an LLC owned by his cousin then, a few months later took out a $2.695 million (tax-free) cash-out mortgage on it — and didn’t report the gift on any of his financial disclosure forms.

Yes, it’s clear that Gavin Newsom doesn’t live by the same rules the rest of us do. It’s good to be king.

During the eight years that Gavin Newsom served as California’s Lieutenant Governor, he and his family still lived a few hours from Sacramento, in their $4.5 million Bay Area compound. Throughout the 2018 gubernatorial campaign, he wouldn’t commit to moving his family to the capital. Days before his January 7, 2019 swearing-in ceremony, Newsom announced that the family would be moving into the Governor’s Mansion — which wasn’t true at all. Unbeknownst to the public, an LLC owned by Newsom’s cousin had already purchased an estate in Fair Oaks on December 21, 2018, for the Governor’s family to live in, for $3.7 million cash.

Gavin Newsom's $3.7 Million Estate Was Gifted to Him in 2019; 3 Months Later He Got a $2.7 Million Tax Free Cash-Out

(DON’T MISS THESE UPDATES: Part 2 of this series has all of the details on the nearly $6 million in

www.redstate.com

There's a happy ending, though, Joe. Now Gavin has upgraded. Moving to VERY conservative El Dorado Hills. $ 5.5M on a hill, in a gated community, so he doesn't have to deal with the homeless mess he built. Protesters can't look at him through the gate anymore, either. Just like the phony Hollywood PRETEND liberals that have private security and live behind 8 foot walls. They need the poor sheep to pay for their movies and Gavin needs the sheep votes. At the end of the day, he doesn't have to live with them, he just needs to pander.

Gavin Newsom Update: He's Moving to an exclusive community in El Dorado County - That Happens to NOT be on the Shutdown List

Western El Dorado County has similar demographics to South Placer and Northeast Sacramento County. As you know from reading the Right on Daily Blog - Gavin Newsom's children's school costs 25K a month per kid and was still open as of his edict this morning 7-17-2020. It is well known in th

rightondaily.com

 

[Copa9]

Any discussion about mathematical equations related to herd immunity at this point in the pandemic is premature.

"Let’s say the R0 for COVID-19 is 2.5, meaning each infected person infects, on average, two and a half other people (a common estimate). In that case, the herd immunity threshold for COVID-19 is 0.6, or 60%. That means the virus will spread at an accelerating rate until, on average across different places, 60% of the population becomes immune."

The Tricky Math of Herd Immunity for COVID-19

Herd immunity differs from place to place, and many factors influence how it’s calculated.

www.quantamagazine.org

Latest studies seem to suggest that a person's antibodies for covid-19 last about 3 months. So there you go. We need a vaccine before any real "herd immunity" can happen. Then just like the seasonal flu, a covid vaccine shot every year.

 

[kickingandscreaming]

Latest studies seem to suggest that a person's antibodies for covid-19 last about 3 months. So there you go. We need a vaccine before any real "herd immunity" can happen. Then just like the seasonal flu, a covid vaccine shot every year.

Antibodies aren't the be-all, end-all.

T cell tests aim for broader picture of COVID-19 immunity

While the COVID-19 testing conversation has centered on assays for antiviral antibodies or the virus itself, at least two companies think T cell tests coul...

www.biocentury.com

But antibody levels are only part of the immunity story. While antibodies may wane past the limit of detection, that doesn’t mean they go away entirely. And even a very low level could be protective. “What‘s important when you’ve been exposed to the virus is how quickly you can ramp up those antibodies,” Permar says. That involves a whole army of cells, which store knowledge of each new pathogen they encounter. There are B cells, which help coax those virus-specific antibodies into existence, plus killer T cells, which can learn to obliterate infected cells. Helper T cells help orchestrate the whole process. “You have multiple arms of the immune response,” says Donna Farber, an immunologist at Columbia University who studies respiratory viruses. “It’s like the Army, the Navy, and the Air Force.” If one branch stands down, the body hasn’t necessarily lost its germ-fighting capacity.

 

[Luis Andres]

Let me help you out with the numbers....according to the Insurance for Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS), in 2018 there were 33,564 fatal motor vehicle accidents in the U.S., causing 36,560 deaths. Obviously COVID has already significantly passed that number. What has been implemented to prevent traffic fatalities is we ticket people who drive over the speed limit, don't stop at stop signs, drive recklessly, and don't head the temporary mandates so to speak (i.e. "slow to 25 miles an hour men at work" etc.). We basically stop them from having freedom to make dumb choices.

Ok so your argument is because you say that there are way more covid deaths, it does not qualify for an example in comparison. I’ll give you that. But how about you go research the number of people that die in the US cause of heart disease. 647,000. 300,000 due to obesity alone. Should we ban all the processed junk food that is creating obesity at enormous rates that we have never seen? My argument is that the population that’s at risk should be identified and protected. They need to quarantine and wait for the vaccine while the rest of us soldiers fight it and create herd immunity. We may get mildly sick, some may even get the flu but when the population at risk returns we are no longer vectors. They can wait for the vaccine or sign a Covid waiver and risk coming out but wearing a red mask so we know to stay away from them to protect them. Common sense: Like done in Sweden. But no we decided to take the communist approach in CA.

 

[Luis Andres]

Oh...I scan through many comments and if they haven't articulated a position in a succinct fashion then I miss it. I did see something about herd immunity but that argument is sooo old and debunked I don't even deal with it.

look at Sweden. Where Numbers don’t lie and Politics don’t fly. Where it’s just about covid. Read whatever article you want to read. But the numbers don’t lie. Their approach worked at a cost of 5600 deaths. Only 50 people in the ICU and they have a population the size of LA county, 10,000 million. Facts, numbers matter. They tell us the true story. Anyone can write a propaganda article. To convince emotional people who only use their emotions to make decisions and come up with non-sequitur conclusions. They are all starting to go back
to normal life we we all here sit at home wishing we were at soccer tournaments.

 

[Chalklines]

@Luis Andres Look at the demographics compared to LA County

Sweden Demographics Profile

www.indexmundi.com

They dont have a huge Hispanic population living on top of one another and they also dont have a huge african american population that has underlying health conditions. Black/Hispanic have been the hardest hit in California.

The fast spread of the virus in places such as california,texas and florida is due to over population and an un healthy community. You just cant control it. Too many people.

Sweden has so much more then we do working in their favor that naturally brings the numbers down.

 

[Sheriff Joe]

@Luis Andres Look at the demographics compared to LA County

Sweden Demographics Profile

www.indexmundi.com

They dont have a huge Hispanic population living on top of one another and they also dont have a huge african american population that has underlying health conditions. Black/Hispanic have been the hardest hit in California.

The fast spread of the virus in places such as california,texas and florida is due to over population and an un healthy community. You just cant control it. Too many people.

Sweden has so much more then we do working in their favor that naturally brings the numbers down.

You make way too much sense, just stop.

 

[Zen]

look at Sweden. Where Numbers don’t lie and Politics don’t fly. Where it’s just about covid. Read whatever article you want to read. But the numbers don’t lie. Their approach worked at a cost of 5600 deaths. Only 50 people in the ICU and they have a population the size of LA county, 10,000 million. Facts, numbers matter. They tell us the true story. Anyone can write a propaganda article. To convince emotional people who only use their emotions to make decisions and come up with non-sequitur conclusions. They are all starting to go back
to normal life we we all here sit at home wishing we were at soccer tournaments.

LA County has 39X higher population density than Sweden. There are many other factors to consider to understand the 'true story'.

• Sweden's is 64 ppl per square mile vs. LA County is 2,489 ppl per square mile, and city of LA is 8,449 ppl per sq. mile
• Way more single head of households living alone in Sweden compared to US make-up as well

Only thing clear is people in the US are going to do whatever they 'feel' regardless of any data. They also only accept cuts of data that serve and support what they feel like doing anyways. These are complex times, with a lot of data points to consider. Yes, there are real trade-offs people are going to have to learn to live with for a while for any semblance of normalcy.

It will look different for everyone, but Sweden is not an example of a success story and James Franco sounds like an idiot. Obesity isn't a contagious virus you can't see coming, and have no way to combat.

 

[Keepermom2]

look at Sweden. Where Numbers don’t lie and Politics don’t fly. Where it’s just about covid. Read whatever article you want to read. But the numbers don’t lie. Their approach worked at a cost of 5600 deaths. Only 50 people in the ICU and they have a population the size of LA county, 10,000 million. Facts, numbers matter. They tell us the true story. Anyone can write a propaganda article. To convince emotional people who only use their emotions to make decisions and come up with non-sequitur conclusions. They are all starting to go back
to normal life we we all here sit at home wishing we were at soccer tournaments.

View attachment 8309View attachment 8306View attachment 8307View attachment 8308

You might want to learn how to make pictures smaller before posting. The Sweden experiment was defined a failure. Done. Next

 

[The Outlaw *BANNED*]

You might want to learn how to make pictures smaller before posting. The Sweden experiment was defined a failure. Done. Next

No, not really.

Did Sweden's coronavirus strategy succeed or fail?

Despite global criticism, Sweden has seen a drop in serious Covid cases without ever having a lockdown.

www.bbc.com

 

[Keepermom2]

Ok so your argument is because you say that there are way more covid deaths, it does not qualify for an example in comparison. I’ll give you that. But how about you go research the number of people that die in the US cause of heart disease. 647,000. 300,000 due to obesity alone. Should we ban all the processed junk food that is creating obesity at enormous rates that we have never seen? My argument is that the population that’s at risk should be identified and protected. They need to quarantine and wait for the vaccine while the rest of us soldiers fight it and create herd immunity. We may get mildly sick, some may even get the flu but when the population at risk returns we are no longer vectors. They can wait for the vaccine or sign a Covid waiver and risk coming out but wearing a red mask so we know to stay away from them to protect them. Common sense: Like done in Sweden. But no we decided to take the communist approach in CA. View attachment 8304View attachment 8304

No offense but your arguments tend to not make sense a nd you reference what my argument is that is not true. I see a rabbit hole that I am not going down.

 

[Keepermom2]

Herd immunity isn’t really the correct term. At a 20% refusal rate the vaccine isn’t going to get us to herd immunity. One thing is clear though. At about 15-20% penetration the thing does slow down. We don’t know yet why...is it because people freak out and ultra distance, some cross or T cell immunity, weather. We really don’t know. I’m skeptical it’s just because the governor shut indoor dining.

Was at 4 parks this weekend. 1 in moorpark had full blown adult and kids baseball game complete with uniforms. 1 soccer in Camarillo and 1 Agoura has teams scrimmaging with their full uniforms on (1 shut down and resumed when cops left). But van nuys was nuttiest. Several soccer pickup games, basketball and playground with the tape torn down, a full blown kids baseball game. Several bbqs. Cops standing their starring. Of course since exercising no masks...more dangerous than protests....social distancing is dead. Doubt governors puny measures are doing very much at this point.

You constantly speak as an authority in COVID yet I rarely if ever see you present evidence for the absolutes you present. Therefore, I can't even contemplate what you are saying because they are just words with no meaning.

I was just at the grocery store in Anaheim and had to wait for my groceries for 15 minutes. In that time, I noted approximately 75 people come and go and noted only 1 person without a mask and 1 person with it below their nose. My brother went to the store yesterday and noted all people wore a mask. Prior to the mandate, there were several people I would see without a mask in the store. There were several items noted in the pull back and one of them was mandatory masks.

 

[kickingandscreaming]

You might want to learn how to make pictures smaller before posting. The Sweden experiment was defined a failure. Done. Next

I hope you are correct. That will mean none of the other countries with lower rates of deaths/cases will have new surges in the fall and early next year. Unfortunately, this thing isn't close to being over. When it is, we'll have plenty of time to assess successes and failures. The obvious failure is that Sweden and to a greater extent, NYC, definitely messed up with their nursing homes.

 

[Keepermom2]

No offense but your arguments tend to not make sense a nd you reference what my argument is that is not true. I see a rabbit hole that I am not going down.

A better way to say it is it takes me too long to decipher what your point is and I lose patience.