OC practice paused

[Grace T.]

You constantly speak as an authority in COVID yet I rarely if ever see you present evidence for the absolutes you present. Therefore, I can't even contemplate what you are saying because they are just words with no meaning.

I was just at the grocery store in Anaheim and had to wait for my groceries for 15 minutes. In that time, I noted approximately 75 people come and go and noted only 1 person without a mask and 1 person with it below their nose. My brother went to the store yesterday and noted all people wore a mask. Prior to the mandate, there were several people I would see without a mask in the store. There were several items noted in the pull back and one of them was mandatory masks.

What's so hard to understand? I don't have time to survey the world for you. But it's clear that at 15-20% something happens and it slows down. We see it repeatedly in New York, Sweden, Spain, Italy, Belgium. I'm not presenting an absolute explanation as to why: I've told you my theory....it's math. But the truth is we don't really know. There's also no proof that government measures in California are causing the bend in the curve because you are now committing the correlation logical fallacy: correlation is not proof. It's possible government interventions are helping to ease the curve. It's also possible that government interventions are just a coincidental timing in response to things getting worse. Lack of government intervention also doesn't cause an acceleration because Norway and Denmark have no mask mandates but have not had an explosion in cases. You are well versed in the data, but where you struggle is the application of the data (maybe you never took a logic or reasoning course...don't know why you have the blind spot).

If the mask mandate was effective enough to eliminate things, by your own chart things in Los Angeles would have been under control weeks ago and there wouldn't have been a second outbreak in Japan or the Phillipines. They may help on the margins, but it's not enough to stop things. The studies on a marginal basis have been mixed, and those pro assume ideal usage. My own opinion is they probably help, should be part of the tool kit, but in and of themselves are not enough to bend the curve. In the park today I saw a bunch of people sitting under trees by themselves wearing a mask....seriously people if you are by yourself and isolated it's not going to help you at all.

If you want to do anecdotes, from my sons' peers experience I'd say about a 1/3 right now are disregarding all social distancing limitations (full blown get togethers even sleepovers, scrimmage games, physical contact including making out), about a 1/3 right now are being cautious (distanced picnics, small limited 1 on one contact), a 1/3 are still hard distancing. I'm still inclined given what I've seen of the parks, the protests, the beaches, and the kids mingling, the governors order restricting haircuts, restaurants and bars is doing little. Even at the pub down my own street, it was jammed last night again with 1/3 of the neighborhood very little social distancing going on and everyone having a party. But I'm also open to the idea it's possible that in combination with mask usage, people being a little more freaked out, the protests dying off a little, and the reclosures of businesses it's helped. In Florida, Texas and Arizona their restrictions aren't even as severe as ours and they are seeing a similar bend....why....we just aren't sure at this point (but no where in the US outside of maybe NYC is the hellscape that SoCal is right now).

 

[Luis Andres]

@Luis Andres Look at the demographics compared to LA County

Sweden Demographics Profile

www.indexmundi.com

They dont have a huge Hispanic population living on top of one another and they also dont have a huge african american population that has underlying health conditions. Black/Hispanic have been the hardest hit in California.

The fast spread of the virus in places such as california,texas and florida is due to over population and an un healthy community. You just cant control it. Too many people.

Sweden has so much more then we do working in their favor that naturally brings the numbers down.

Good point. lol. That is an issue in LA. But I’m all for the strategic approach not the hands all one taken. We have enough knowledge now to make better decisions. Hopefully things get reconsidered and safer measures and standards are put into place.

 

[dad4]

What's so hard to understand? I don't have time to survey the world for you. But it's clear that at 15-20% something happens and it slows down. We see it repeatedly in New York, Sweden, Spain, Italy, Belgium. I'm not presenting an absolute explanation as to why: I've told you my theory....it's math. But the truth is we don't really know. There's also no proof that government measures in California are causing the bend in the curve because you are now committing the correlation logical fallacy: correlation is not proof. It's possible government interventions are helping to ease the curve. It's also possible that government interventions are just a coincidental timing in response to things getting worse. Lack of government intervention also doesn't cause an acceleration because Norway and Denmark have no mask mandates but have not had an explosion in cases. You are well versed in the data, but where you struggle is the application of the data (maybe you never took a logic or reasoning course...don't know why you have the blind spot).

If the mask mandate was effective enough to eliminate things, by your own chart things in Los Angeles would have been under control weeks ago and there wouldn't have been a second outbreak in Japan or the Phillipines. They may help on the margins, but it's not enough to stop things. The studies on a marginal basis have been mixed, and those pro assume ideal usage. My own opinion is they probably help, should be part of the tool kit, but in and of themselves are not enough to bend the curve. In the park today I saw a bunch of people sitting under trees by themselves wearing a mask....seriously people if you are by yourself and isolated it's not going to help you at all.

If you want to do anecdotes, from my sons' peers experience I'd say about a 1/3 right now are disregarding all social distancing limitations (full blown get togethers even sleepovers, scrimmage games, physical contact including making out), about a 1/3 right now are being cautious (distanced picnics, small limited 1 on one contact), a 1/3 are still hard distancing. I'm still inclined given what I've seen of the parks, the protests, the beaches, and the kids mingling, the governors order restricting haircuts, restaurants and bars is doing little. Even at the pub down my own street, it was jammed last night again with 1/3 of the neighborhood very little social distancing going on and everyone having a party. But I'm also open to the idea it's possible that in combination with mask usage, people being a little more freaked out, the protests dying off a little, and the reclosures of businesses it's helped.

Why is your theory math instead of masks?

Once you get to 15%, a larger percentage of highly connected people are infected. (Math)

Once you get to 15%, the probability of knowing a severe case goes up. (Masks)

The two seem to go hand in hand.

 

[Grace T.]

Why is your theory math instead of masks?

Once you get to 15%, a larger percentage of highly connected people are infected. (Math)

Once you get to 15%, the probability of knowing a severe case goes up. (Masks)

The two seem to go hand in hand.

Because then you'd see the waves bend. They haven't. They can all be calculated by a wave function. It's just a guess on my part, but here's where I diverge with the reports saying the lockdowns are useless: I think they may have an impact on the initial shape of the wave (what they are going to look like) but once in motion the thing is pretty rigid. Lockdowns would thus be effective if imposed at the beginning of an outbreak in a particular region, but if imposed before the outbreak the only thing they do is push the wave back in time.

If what you say is correct, then by this point California should be more freaked out and locked up. But it doesn't appear to be (and that's where keepermom and I fall into our war of anecdotes). From what I'm seeing in the park, people are less freaked out (or at least stable) not more and certainly less freaked out than they were in the initial lockdowns. A certain segment of the population (even as you see on these boards) is simply over it. from what I'm hearing anecdotally Arizona, Texas and Florida too, which means they shouldn't decline...but we'll see in a few weeks. In the end draconian Socal and red states AZ, TX and FL may look similar, but we'll see ....it's too early to tell.

 

[blam]

Honestly, I’m not wearing a mask to protect myself. I do not interact with enough people to warrant it. I wear it to protect the worker serving me.

 

[espola]

Because then you'd see the waves bend. They haven't. They can all be calculated by a wave function. It's just a guess on my part, but here's where I diverge with the reports saying the lockdowns are useless: I think they may have an impact on the initial shape of the wave (what they are going to look like) but once in motion the thing is pretty rigid. Lockdowns would thus be effective if imposed at the beginning of an outbreak in a particular region, but if imposed before the outbreak the only thing they do is push the wave back in time.

If what you say is correct, then by this point California should be more freaked out and locked up. But it doesn't appear to be (and that's where keepermom and I fall into our war of anecdotes). From what I'm seeing in the park, people are less freaked out (or at least stable) not more and certainly less freaked out than they were in the initial lockdowns. A certain segment of the population (even as you see on these boards) is simply over it. from what I'm hearing anecdotally Arizona, Texas and Florida too, which means they shouldn't decline...but we'll see in a few weeks. In the end draconian Socal and red states AZ, TX and FL may look similar, but we'll see ....it's too early to tell.

Tell us more about wave functions.

 

[blam]

If what you say is correct, then by this point California should be more freaked out and locked up.

I have to disagree with this. My example: I was more freaked when it started because never been in this situation. Today, I am not as freaked out because:

1. I have stopped following the news which sounds like a broken record now.
2. I have no control over many of the situation.
3. I have distracted myself with other interests.

I can just take precautions. If I know someone has Covid, I will still not go within 30 feet of him.

Is the situation worse today than it started? I know the number of cases will go up over time, but is the number of active cases up?

Maybe. But even if you tell me they had gone up, there is nothing much I could do. My only avenue is to leave the state but I have not found a good place to go to. Every private school outside the USA still costs an arm and a leg.

The good thing is my stock portfolio has gone up since the pandemic. We have mastered this. My latest stock insight is that, "Even if one had bought stocks at the height of the 1929 prior to the start of the great depression, with the right balancing, that person would have still made a fortune today."

 

[dad4]

Because then you'd see the waves bend. They haven't. They can all be calculated by a wave function. It's just a guess on my part, but here's where I diverge with the reports saying the lockdowns are useless: I think they may have an impact on the initial shape of the wave (what they are going to look like) but once in motion the thing is pretty rigid. Lockdowns would thus be effective if imposed at the beginning of an outbreak in a particular region, but if imposed before the outbreak the only thing they do is push the wave back in time.

If what you say is correct, then by this point California should be more freaked out and locked up. But it doesn't appear to be (and that's where keepermom and I fall into our war of anecdotes). From what I'm seeing in the park, people are less freaked out (or at least stable) not more and certainly less freaked out than they were in the initial lockdowns. A certain segment of the population (even as you see on these boards) is simply over it. from what I'm hearing anecdotally Arizona, Texas and Florida too, which means they shouldn't decline...but we'll see in a few weeks. In the end draconian Socal and red states AZ, TX and FL may look similar, but we'll see ....it's too early to tell.

I don’t follow you on waves. I can follow the math if you have it. Waves make me think Fourier, but I’m sure that isn’t what you mean.

If you mean the shape of the curve, I think you have it backwards. The shape of the curve seems to be more variable in later months, not earlier. Some places had a quick run up, then a quick run down. Some places had a quick run up, then a long slow decay. Early shapes matched, but later shapes were quite different. (larger role for behavioral differences between countries.)

If it were all about reaching 20% infection rates, then all countries with mature outbreaks would have similar infection rates. There is quite a bit of variability. The Asian countries have mature outbreaks and are nowhere near 20% infection rates. That ponts to a very large behavioral element.

Both point to masks/distancing instead of covid fatalism.

 

[SoccerGuru]

Because then you'd see the waves bend. They haven't. They can all be calculated by a wave function.

Hilarious that you tried to use complex mathematics into a soccer forum about politics. I applaud your effort but I would say this is a case where you need to know your audience a little better but I do generally like your posts.

 

[Justafan]

Ok so your argument is because you say that there are way more covid deaths, it does not qualify for an example in comparison. I’ll give you that. But how about you go research the number of people that die in the US cause of heart disease. 647,000. 300,000 due to obesity alone. Should we ban all the processed junk food that is creating obesity at enormous rates that we have never seen? My argument is that the population that’s at risk should be identified and protected. They need to quarantine and wait for the vaccine while the rest of us soldiers fight it and create herd immunity. We may get mildly sick, some may even get the flu but when the population at risk returns we are no longer vectors. They can wait for the vaccine or sign a Covid waiver and risk coming out but wearing a red mask so we know to stay away from them to protect them. Common sense: Like done in Sweden. But no we decided to take the communist approach in CA. View attachment 8304View attachment 8304

You see, at least this sounds like a plan. By the way, have you found the captain yet, or is he in a bunker. Maybe he should have followed your plan. Maybe he should have followed my plan. Maybe he shouldn’t have been a pussy and been the 1st one to abandon ship.

Sorry brother, I won’t allow you to pin this on DemoRats or communists in Cali. None of you have been able to own the fact that this is the biggest and costliest presidential debacle of our lifetime.

like I said the Titanic already hit the iceberg. Now, it’s only a matter of how this catastrophe will measure in the history books.

 

[Grace T.]

[

If it were all about reaching 20% infection rates, then all countries with mature outbreaks would have similar infection rates. There is quite a bit of variability. The Asian countries have mature outbreaks and are nowhere near 20% infection rates. That ponts to a very large behavioral element.

Both point to masks/distancing instead of covid fatalism.

If you look at the Asian countries, though, they've all had repeated outbreaks (except for Taiwan, which sealed themselves off, and China/Vietnam, which used the extreme tactics) precisely because they aren't at 15-20%. Japan had a second wave despite masks (if masks work, they wouldn't have...mask might still have a marginal utility but not enough macro utility to stop a Japanese outbreak). South Korea has an ongoing slow burn (despite the most sophisticated T&T and enforced quarantines). Hong Kong is in its third wave. Singapore is in its second again despite its vaunted T&T. The Philippines has one of the most robust mask requirements in the world yet is still ongoing. Sweden though does not (and does some real stupid stuff) and it's receded now....why?

 

[Keepermom2]

What's so hard to understand? I don't have time to survey the world for you. But it's clear that at 15-20% something happens and it slows down. We see it repeatedly in New York, Sweden, Spain, Italy, Belgium. I'm not presenting an absolute explanation as to why: I've told you my theory....it's math. But the truth is we don't really know. There's also no proof that government measures in California are causing the bend in the curve because you are now committing the correlation logical fallacy: correlation is not proof. It's possible government interventions are helping to ease the curve. It's also possible that government interventions are just a coincidental timing in response to things getting worse. Lack of government intervention also doesn't cause an acceleration because Norway and Denmark have no mask mandates but have not had an explosion in cases. You are well versed in the data, but where you struggle is the application of the data (maybe you never took a logic or reasoning course...don't know why you have the blind spot).

If the mask mandate was effective enough to eliminate things, by your own chart things in Los Angeles would have been under control weeks ago and there wouldn't have been a second outbreak in Japan or the Phillipines. They may help on the margins, but it's not enough to stop things. The studies on a marginal basis have been mixed, and those pro assume ideal usage. My own opinion is they probably help, should be part of the tool kit, but in and of themselves are not enough to bend the curve. In the park today I saw a bunch of people sitting under trees by themselves wearing a mask....seriously people if you are by yourself and isolated it's not going to help you at all.

If you want to do anecdotes, from my sons' peers experience I'd say about a 1/3 right now are disregarding all social distancing limitations (full blown get togethers even sleepovers, scrimmage games, physical contact including making out), about a 1/3 right now are being cautious (distanced picnics, small limited 1 on one contact), a 1/3 are still hard distancing. I'm still inclined given what I've seen of the parks, the protests, the beaches, and the kids mingling, the governors order restricting haircuts, restaurants and bars is doing little. Even at the pub down my own street, it was jammed last night again with 1/3 of the neighborhood very little social distancing going on and everyone having a party. But I'm also open to the idea it's possible that in combination with mask usage, people being a little more freaked out, the protests dying off a little, and the reclosures of businesses it's helped. In Florida, Texas and Arizona their restrictions aren't even as severe as ours and they are seeing a similar bend....why....we just aren't sure at this point (but no where in the US outside of maybe NYC is the hellscape that SoCal is right now).

I can tell you have done a lot of thinking on this subject. I am looking for evidence that supports your assertions. Please provide.

 

[Grace T.]

Hilarious that you tried to use complex mathematics into a soccer forum about politics. I applaud your effort but I would say this is a case where you need to know your audience a little better but I do generally like your posts.

Yeah. I know. Some people clutch onto that blue pill real hard. Most people are not ready to be unplugged.

 

[timbuck]

Can we get back to talking about kids playing soccer in OC? Or San Diego? Or some guys backyard where nobody can see? Or if dads can organize pickup games but still pay coaches?

 

[Grace T.]

I can tell you have done a lot of thinking on this subject. I am looking for evidence that supports your assertions. Please provide.

Which assertion. The 15-20%? I told you go look at the curve of every country. It's what happens. It's a fact. I don't have the time to do it for you, and frankly if you were really interested you'd go out and do it yourselves. To compile it would take a few days and blow up this forum...not worth the effort to pursuade you since your mind is blue pilled anyways....you'll fight anything that tries to unplug you.

The fact that it's mathematical? Don't have any. It's a guess. I think it might also be weather dependent, or a combination of both. We don't know. We do know there's some kind of dark matter. Might be government policy as well, but given the different responses in Socal v. Fl/Tx/Az unlikely.

 

[Justafan]

You constantly speak as an authority in COVID yet I rarely if ever see you present evidence for the absolutes you present. Therefore, I can't even contemplate what you are saying because they are just words with no meaning.

I was just at the grocery store in Anaheim and had to wait for my groceries for 15 minutes. In that time, I noted approximately 75 people come and go and noted only 1 person without a mask and 1 person with it below their nose. My brother went to the store yesterday and noted all people wore a mask. Prior to the mandate, there were several people I would see without a mask in the store. There were several items noted in the pull back and one of them was mandatory masks.

That’s because she’s a doctor, a lawyer, a research scientist, an executive, an educator, a lab technician, a manufacturer......

In other words jack of all trades master of none.

 

[Justafan]

You make way too much sense, just stop.

Where’s that pussy Stephen Miller? Tell him that if he had any balls he would’ve rounded up all the illegal aliens working at every meat packing plant and agricultural field across the nation. They’ve been the only ones working full time since March.

He still has time to do it, please tell him, I really want to see what happens.

 

[Justafan]

Hilarious that you tried to use complex mathematics into a soccer forum about politics. I applaud your effort but I would say this is a case where you need to know your audience a little better but I do generally like your posts.

Then you’re impressed too easily my friend. You need to see through bull shit and somebody trying WAY too hard to sound like she’s an expert. Sounds like somebody has a complex of some kind to try that hard.

 

[Grace T.]

Then you’re impressed too easily my friend. You need to see through bull shit and somebody trying WAY too hard to sound like she’s an expert. Sounds like somebody has a complex of some kind to try that hard.

Hey I don't know if I'll get everything right, and I'm certainly NOT an expert (and in this case sort of happy I'm not....you've missed the point that if I were an expert I'd be far less effective because part of their problem is not being able to see the forest through the trees). I do have a rare ability to see the larger picture of things and to process information quickly (I won't tell you my IQ but that also most certainly helps). But again, I stand by my track record in all this....it certainly is better than many so-called experts including Fauci.

I frankly don't care who I impress...I grew out of that a long time ago...that's not my motivating factor which you've also fundamentally misunderstood. It's that I'm fighting the hysteria which is so prevailing and is directly damaging our kids in irreparable ways. If it weren't for the kids, frankly I wouldn't give a damn. But here's something to blow your mind...who has the bigger complex: the one trying too hard, or the one that seems so compelled to point out the first person is trying too hard.

 

[Sheriff Joe]

Where’s that pussy Stephen Miller? Tell him that if he had any balls he would’ve rounded up all the illegal aliens working at every meat packing plant and agricultural field across the nation. They’ve been the only ones working full time since March.

He still has time to do it, please tell him, I really want to see what happens.

Just think of all the money we would have if all the illegals were not here?
Just imagine how much smarter our kids would be if teachers didn’t have to teach illegals English before they can teach them math.
Just imagine what getting rid of all the illegals and their families would do to the obesity epidemic.
Just imagine getting seen at the ER without having to wait behind Jose and Maria who’s healthcare I am funding.
What a wonderful world.