OC practice paused

[Grace T.]

Let me help you out with the numbers....according to the Insurance for Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS), in 2018 there were 33,564 fatal motor vehicle accidents in the U.S., causing 36,560 deaths. Obviously COVID has already significantly passed that number. What has been implemented to prevent traffic fatalities is we ticket people who drive over the speed limit, don't stop at stop signs, drive recklessly, and don't head the temporary mandates so to speak (i.e. "slow to 25 miles an hour men at work" etc.). We basically stop them from having freedom to make dumb choices.

Slight quibble. The relevant comparison isn’t the no of car deaths per year. The relevant comparison is the no of deaths over the existence of Covid (whenever years hence the thing finally fades) v no of deaths over the existence of the car.

According to the studies done now on the efficacies of lockdowns, as well as Los Angeles own experience when before lockdowns the r0 had dropped, the measures you describe are the equivalent of social distancing. The hard measures being bandied about by the lockdown til vaccine school would be the equivalent of dropping the speed limit to 35 or 25 mph (depending on severity of lockdown), banning more than 1 passenger, alcohol sensors on every car and banning teenaged drivers.

Hearing more complications re the vaccine. May not be 100% effective particularly with elderly. 20% hard no’s Saying they won’t take it. Will likely require at least 2 injections to be effective at all. Will likely require boosters several times to remain effective. Children’s testing is running far behind and they won’t be in first groups and pediatric doses for small ones delayed. Faucis date is already slipping too. For those in perpetual lockdown and schoolS shut until the vaccine, it’s not the panacea you think it is...at least for a while....see the Atlantic article among others.

 

[espola]

Let me help you out with the numbers....according to the Insurance for Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS), in 2018 there were 33,564 fatal motor vehicle accidents in the U.S., causing 36,560 deaths. Obviously COVID has already significantly passed that number. What has been implemented to prevent traffic fatalities is we ticket people who drive over the speed limit, don't stop at stop signs, drive recklessly, and don't head the temporary mandates so to speak (i.e. "slow to 25 miles an hour men at work" etc.). We basically stop them from having freedom to make dumb choices.

I like what you have posted here, but you missed the point that none of that has anything to do with "herd immunity" as Luis seems to be claiming.

 

[Keepermom2]

Collateral damage. It’s like we have x numbers of fatalities from car accidents a year but we don’t stop everyone from driving and getting around under 6000 deaths for Sweden is not bad. Try searching for how many people die of heart disease. Let’s ban junk food

As far as how many people die of heart disease....the people that die from heart disease are not dying because of the choices made by other people so the analogy makes 0 sense.

 

[Keepermom2]

Slight quibble. The relevant comparison isn’t the no of car deaths per year. The relevant comparison is the no of deaths over the existence of Covid (whenever years hence the thing finally fades) v no of deaths over the existence of the car.

According to the studies done now on the efficacies of lockdowns, as well as Los Angeles own experience when before lockdowns the r0 had dropped, the measures you describe are the equivalent of social distancing. The hard measures being bandied about by the lockdown til vaccine school would be the equivalent of dropping the speed limit to 35 or 25 mph (depending on severity of lockdown), banning more than 1 passenger, alcohol sensors on every car and banning teenaged drivers.

Hearing more complications re the vaccine. May not be 100% effective particularly with elderly. 20% hard no’s Saying they won’t take it. Will likely require at least 2 injections to be effective at all. Will likely require boosters several times to remain effective. Children’s testing is running far behind and they won’t be in first groups and pediatric doses for small ones delayed. Faucis date is already slipping too. For those in perpetual lockdown and schoolS shut until the vaccine, it’s not the panacea you think it is...at least for a while....see the Atlantic article among others.

Please share the studies and support for your comments. It is about hospitalization capacity! Obviously various levels of shut down work because the recent mandates on no indoor dining etc. reduced the increases we have been seeing in hospitalizations starting this last week.

 

[Keepermom2]

Slight quibble. The relevant comparison isn’t the no of car deaths per year. The relevant comparison is the no of deaths over the existence of Covid (whenever years hence the thing finally fades) v no of deaths over the existence of the car.

According to the studies done now on the efficacies of lockdowns, as well as Los Angeles own experience when before lockdowns the r0 had dropped, the measures you describe are the equivalent of social distancing. The hard measures being bandied about by the lockdown til vaccine school would be the equivalent of dropping the speed limit to 35 or 25 mph (depending on severity of lockdown), banning more than 1 passenger, alcohol sensors on every car and banning teenaged drivers.

Hearing more complications re the vaccine. May not be 100% effective particularly with elderly. 20% hard no’s Saying they won’t take it. Will likely require at least 2 injections to be effective at all. Will likely require boosters several times to remain effective. Children’s testing is running far behind and they won’t be in first groups and pediatric doses for small ones delayed. Faucis date is already slipping too. For those in perpetual lockdown and schoolS shut until the vaccine, it’s not the panacea you think it is...at least for a while....see the Atlantic article among others.

By the way...just because there is a study doesn't mean it is valid. There are many studies out there that aren't "peer reviewed". I stop reading at the point I see "not peer reviewed" because there are many studies reported that are crap. There is one study out there that says Hydrogen Peroxide cures cancer. Obviously the notation of being peer reviewed is not included.

I believe one of the studies you are referring to isn't peer reviewed and in fact includes 16 people.

 

[Keepermom2]

I like what you have posted here, but you missed the point that none of that has anything to do with "herd immunity" as Luis seems to be claiming.

Oh...I scan through many comments and if they haven't articulated a position in a succinct fashion then I miss it. I did see something about herd immunity but that argument is sooo old and debunked I don't even deal with it.

 

[Grace T.]

Please share the studies and support for your comments. It is about hospitalization capacity! Obviously various levels of shut down work because the recent mandates on no indoor dining etc. reduced the increases we have been seeing in hospitalizations starting this last week.

There’s been a few. But I agree it’s about hospital capacity and the studies have focused on the r0 not hospital capacity. It also points then to lockdowns should be used only when an epidemic threatens that capacity. Not a National lockdown when some regions were ok

We don’t know why the curves are projecting downward either since those haven’t been studied. Ive argued it’s because the waves are mathematical and they’ll do that regardless of what govts do. Could also be because people get more cautious as things get worse. Also Mexico’s imports have begun to ease off as well.

 

[Sheriff Joe]

By the way...just because there is a study doesn't mean it is valid. There are many studies out there that aren't "peer reviewed". I stop reading at the point I see "not peer reviewed" because there are many studies reported that are crap. There is one study out there that says Hydrogen Peroxide cures cancer. Obviously the notation of being peer reviewed is not included.

I believe one of the studies you are referring to isn't peer reviewed and in fact includes 16 people.

The Key to Defeating COVID-19 Already Exists. We Need to Start Using It | Opinion

BY HARVEY A. RISCH, MD, PHD ON 7/23/20 AT 7:00 AM EDT
SHARE
OPINION CORONAVIRUS HEALTH AND MEDICINE MEDICINE FDA
As professor of epidemiology at Yale School of Public Health, I have authored over 300 peer-reviewed publications and currently hold senior positions on the editorial boards of several leading journals. I am usually accustomed to advocating for positions within the mainstream of medicine, so have been flummoxed to find that, in the midst of a crisis, I am fighting for a treatment that the data fully support but which, for reasons having nothing to do with a correct understanding of the science, has been pushed to the sidelines. As a result, tens of thousands of patients with COVID-19 are dying unnecessarily. Fortunately, the situation can be reversed easily and quickly.


I am referring, of course, to the medication hydroxychloroquine. When this inexpensive oral medication is given very early in the course of illness, before the virus has had time to multiply beyond control, it has shown to be highly effective, especially when given in combination with the antibiotics azithromycin or doxycycline and the nutritional supplement zinc.

 

[Keepermom2]

There’s been a few. But I agree it’s about hospital capacity and the studies have focused on the r0 not hospital capacity. It also points then to lockdowns should be used only when an epidemic threatens that capacity. Not a National lockdown when some regions were ok

We don’t know why the curves are projecting downward either since those haven’t been studied. Ive argued it’s because the waves are mathematical and they’ll do that regardless of what govts do. Could also be because people get more cautious as things get worse. Also Mexico’s imports have begun to ease off as well.

Logic....we have been increasing hospitalizations for COVID in OC every week since the pandemic started. There was never 1 week that there was a decrease. We got to a point of increasing hospitalizations by greater than 30% per week for 3 weeks at the time Newsom pulled back on openings.

We started seeing small decreases in the weekly increase within 2 weeks after the mandates to this last week we saw a weekly decrease for the first time since the Pandemic began. OC Health already attributed many outbreaks to restaurants.

If you look at the science, the primary means of transmission is through respiratory droplets and while you can get it from surfaces, the major spread comes from person to person contact so the Mexico notation is highly unlikely for such significant changes in a matter of weeks in most counties suffering from large increases in the prior weeks.

Your mathmatical theory falls apart when you look at Arizona, Florida, and Texas who didn't pull back until hospital capacity was already reached or almost reached and now that they did implement some pull backs, they are seeing some relief though not enough because they did it too late.

 

[espola]

The Key to Defeating COVID-19 Already Exists. We Need to Start Using It | Opinion

BY HARVEY A. RISCH, MD, PHD ON 7/23/20 AT 7:00 AM EDT
SHARE
OPINION CORONAVIRUS HEALTH AND MEDICINE MEDICINE FDA
As professor of epidemiology at Yale School of Public Health, I have authored over 300 peer-reviewed publications and currently hold senior positions on the editorial boards of several leading journals. I am usually accustomed to advocating for positions within the mainstream of medicine, so have been flummoxed to find that, in the midst of a crisis, I am fighting for a treatment that the data fully support but which, for reasons having nothing to do with a correct understanding of the science, has been pushed to the sidelines. As a result, tens of thousands of patients with COVID-19 are dying unnecessarily. Fortunately, the situation can be reversed easily and quickly.


I am referring, of course, to the medication hydroxychloroquine. When this inexpensive oral medication is given very early in the course of illness, before the virus has had time to multiply beyond control, it has shown to be highly effective, especially when given in combination with the antibiotics azithromycin or doxycycline and the nutritional supplement zinc.

That paper (and others by the same author) refer to using HCQ alone or in combination with other established antibiotics on patients who are already sick enough to seek treatment. It has little or no effect on the spread of covid-19 among the general population since it is not intended to be used in place of a proper vaccine.

 

[Grace T.]

Logic....we have been increasing hospitalizations for COVID in OC every week since the pandemic started. There was never 1 week that there was a decrease.

You've committed the causation logical fallacy. And undermined your own argument by saying there was never 1 week that there was a decrease despite govt policies. Not looking to get into a big back and forth with you since I'm busy packing, and I know your heart is in the right place and it would require a deep dive into the Mexico and Mexico border counties numbers. I'll just leave it that while you have several great points, you've overreached on the conclusions.

 

[dad4]

Logic....we have been increasing hospitalizations for COVID in OC every week since the pandemic started. There was never 1 week that there was a decrease. We got to a point of increasing hospitalizations by greater than 30% per week for 3 weeks at the time Newsom pulled back on openings.

We started seeing small decreases in the weekly increase within 2 weeks after the mandates to this last week we saw a weekly decrease for the first time since the Pandemic began. OC Health already attributed many outbreaks to restaurants.

If you look at the science, the primary means of transmission is through respiratory droplets and while you can get it from surfaces, the major spread comes from person to person contact so the Mexico notation is highly unlikely for such significant changes in a matter of weeks in most counties suffering from large increases in the prior weeks.

Your mathmatical theory falls apart when you look at Arizona, Florida, and Texas who didn't pull back until hospital capacity was already reached or almost reached and now that they did implement some pull backs, they are seeing some relief though not enough because they did it too late.

Phoenix has had a mask requirement since mid June, before their hospitals got really full and they had to import nurses.

Not clear how seriously they take it, but it is there.

 

[Ellejustus]

I hear announcement coming soon for the OC and youth sports

 

[kickingandscreaming]

Phoenix has had a mask requirement since mid June, before their hospitals got really full and they had to import nurses.

Not clear how seriously they take it, but it is there.

I believe they pulled back bars and gyms on June 29. In general, it appears that if there is at least some semblance of social distancing and avoiding large groups inside, the case load can be handled by hospitals. Also, in AZ, TX and FL they are likely approaching the level of immunity that the states in the NE have due to their initial wave. That helps.

 

[Keepermom2]

You've committed the causation logical fallacy. And undermined your own argument by saying there was never 1 week that there was a decrease despite govt policies. Not looking to get into a big back and forth with you since I'm busy packing, and I know your heart is in the right place and it would require a deep dive into the Mexico and Mexico border counties numbers. I'll just leave it that while you have several great points, you've overreached on the conclusions.

Sometimes a picture is worth a thousand words....

 

[Copa9]

Hate to break it to you, but the Titanic has already crashed and your blaming the 1st officer because you don’t like they way he’s handing out the life rafts.

What happened to the captain?

exactly. Declining deaths

Newsom is just playing the Trump Games. But there is new hope with this new home testing for CovidView attachment 8298

Actually you might have a point, but send it to Trump. The latest studies do show stool samples can and do contain covid. Just a few days ago it was announced that a study of the waste water at Yosemite showed a high level of covid. Someone should develop a test for stool samples.

 

[kickingandscreaming]

I like what you have posted here, but you missed the point that none of that has anything to do with "herd immunity" as Luis seems to be claiming.

The more I look at the data the more I realize it best not to get too worked up about the percent needed for herd immunity: (1 - 1/R0). R0 is very tricky to calculate with accuracy and even if it is possible, it is likely that it will overestimate the percent needed for herd immunity given that we know that infections are driven by "super spreaders". It also doesn't help that R0 is not constant and depends on human behavior and the environment.

 

[lafalafa]

I hear announcement coming soon for the OC and youth sports

Weekend camps or clinics?

Reciieved notice today some cities are going to start permitting on August 1st outdoor youth sport camps on weekends only, but not during the week.

Not sure why the weekend only thing but have notices about openings starting Aug 1st for the weekends only Saturday or Sunday for the month of August only.

 

[Keepermom2]

You've committed the causation logical fallacy. And undermined your own argument by saying there was never 1 week that there was a decrease despite govt policies. Not looking to get into a big back and forth with you since I'm busy packing, and I know your heart is in the right place and it would require a deep dive into the Mexico and Mexico border counties numbers. I'll just leave it that while you have several great points, you've overreached on the conclusions.

Any discussion about mathematical equations related to herd immunity at this point in the pandemic is premature.

"Let’s say the R0 for COVID-19 is 2.5, meaning each infected person infects, on average, two and a half other people (a common estimate). In that case, the herd immunity threshold for COVID-19 is 0.6, or 60%. That means the virus will spread at an accelerating rate until, on average across different places, 60% of the population becomes immune."

The Tricky Math of Herd Immunity for COVID-19

Herd immunity differs from place to place, and many factors influence how it’s calculated.

www.quantamagazine.org

 

[espola]

The more I look at the data the more I realize it best not to get too worked up about the percent needed for herd immunity: (1 - 1/R0). R0 is very tricky to calculate with accuracy and even if it is possible, it is likely that it will overestimate the percent needed for herd immunity given that we know that infections are driven by "super spreaders". It also doesn't help that R0 is not constant and depends on human behavior and the environment.

In the classical biological sense, herd immunity is achieved when sufficient members of the herd carry antibodies to the pathogen in question (either by having the disease and surviving it or by having the antibodies passed on by their birth mother) so that a new wave of infection from outside the herd has little effect. The level of post-infection survival needed to achieve herd immunity depends on the disease. I have noticed that a lot of people bring up "herd immunity" in the same kind of tone that they use with "First Amendment', which is meaningless without context.

 

[kickingandscreaming]

In the classical biological sense, herd immunity is achieved when sufficient members of the herd carry antibodies to the pathogen in question (either by having the disease and surviving it or by having the antibodies passed on by their birth mother) so that a new wave of infection from outside the herd has little effect. The level of post-infection survival needed to achieve herd immunity depends on the disease.

Yes, I'll add that there's also the "wild card" of how long immunity lasts.