Keepermom2
GOLD
I am not sure the connection you are trying to make between new surges in the fall and early next year and Sweden. The countries with lower rates of deaths/cases have implemented various levels of interventions and monitoring.
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kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
Yes, something is going on. In Sweden, this article estimates R = 0.6 and the testing indicates 17.6% of the 140,000 tested has antibodies. It appears to be some combination of immunity and social distancing.
Is Sweden’s coronavirus strategy working after all?
Infections, hospitalisations and deaths have dropped, but immunity remains a puzzle.
www.euronews.com
Keepermom2
GOLD
Apparently I am not the only one to make the link....if you go to the link and click on each line it will show you what order was put in place.
Home - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center
Johns Hopkins experts in global public health, infectious disease, and emergency preparedness have been at the forefront of the international response to COVID-19.
coronavirus.jhu.edu
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
R is not constant, but you know that. I won't bore you with the details.
Places that had the virus under control recently, are struggling to keep their current outbreak at a low level. In the winter with people inside in heated buildings and not getting sunshine it will be that much more difficult to control. Sweden may be protected by the immunity they have.
America's Covid response is flawed. But even the gold standard nations are seeing big outbreaks
Even countries lauded for their fast and effective responses to COVID-19 are seeing large outbreaks and resurgences of the infection.
What's so hard to understand? I don't have time to survey the world for you. But it's clear that at 15-20% something happens and it slows down. We see it repeatedly in New York, Sweden, Spain, Italy, Belgium. I'm not presenting an absolute explanation as to why: I've told you my theory....it's math. But the truth is we don't really know. There's also no proof that government measures in California are causing the bend in the curve because you are now committing the correlation logical fallacy: correlation is not proof. It's possible government interventions are helping to ease the curve. It's also possible that government interventions are just a coincidental timing in response to things getting worse. Lack of government intervention also doesn't cause an acceleration because Norway and Denmark have no mask mandates but have not had an explosion in cases. You are well versed in the data, but where you struggle is the application of the data (maybe you never took a logic or reasoning course...don't know why you have the blind spot).
If the mask mandate was effective enough to eliminate things, by your own chart things in Los Angeles would have been under control weeks ago and there wouldn't have been a second outbreak in Japan or the Phillipines. They may help on the margins, but it's not enough to stop things. The studies on a marginal basis have been mixed, and those pro assume ideal usage. My own opinion is they probably help, should be part of the tool kit, but in and of themselves are not enough to bend the curve. In the park today I saw a bunch of people sitting under trees by themselves wearing a mask....seriously people if you are by yourself and isolated it's not going to help you at all.
If you want to do anecdotes, from my sons' peers experience I'd say about a 1/3 right now are disregarding all social distancing limitations (full blown get togethers even sleepovers, scrimmage games, physical contact including making out), about a 1/3 right now are being cautious (distanced picnics, small limited 1 on one contact), a 1/3 are still hard distancing. I'm still inclined given what I've seen of the parks, the protests, the beaches, and the kids mingling, the governors order restricting haircuts, restaurants and bars is doing little. Even at the pub down my own street, it was jammed last night again with 1/3 of the neighborhood very little social distancing going on and everyone having a party. But I'm also open to the idea it's possible that in combination with mask usage, people being a little more freaked out, the protests dying off a little, and the reclosures of businesses it's helped. In Florida, Texas and Arizona their restrictions aren't even as severe as ours and they are seeing a similar bend....why....we just aren't sure at this point (but no where in the US outside of maybe NYC is the hellscape that SoCal is right now).
@Luis Andres Look at the demographics compared to LA County
Sweden Demographics Profile
www.indexmundi.com
They dont have a huge Hispanic population living on top of one another and they also dont have a huge african american population that has underlying health conditions. Black/Hispanic have been the hardest hit in California.
The fast spread of the virus in places such as california,texas and florida is due to over population and an un healthy community. You just cant control it. Too many people.
Sweden has so much more then we do working in their favor that naturally brings the numbers down.
Good point. lol. That is an issue in LA. But I’m all for the strategic approach not the hands all one taken. We have enough knowledge now to make better decisions. Hopefully things get reconsidered and safer measures and standards are put into place.
Why is your theory math instead of masks?
Once you get to 15%, a larger percentage of highly connected people are infected. (Math)
Once you get to 15%, the probability of knowing a severe case goes up. (Masks)
The two seem to go hand in hand.
Because then you'd see the waves bend. They haven't. They can all be calculated by a wave function. It's just a guess on my part, but here's where I diverge with the reports saying the lockdowns are useless: I think they may have an impact on the initial shape of the wave (what they are going to look like) but once in motion the thing is pretty rigid. Lockdowns would thus be effective if imposed at the beginning of an outbreak in a particular region, but if imposed before the outbreak the only thing they do is push the wave back in time.
If what you say is correct, then by this point California should be more freaked out and locked up. But it doesn't appear to be (and that's where keepermom and I fall into our war of anecdotes). From what I'm seeing in the park, people are less freaked out (or at least stable) not more and certainly less freaked out than they were in the initial lockdowns. A certain segment of the population (even as you see on these boards) is simply over it. from what I'm hearing anecdotally Arizona, Texas and Florida too, which means they shouldn't decline...but we'll see in a few weeks. In the end draconian Socal and red states AZ, TX and FL may look similar, but we'll see ....it's too early to tell.
Tell us more about wave functions.
I have to disagree with this. My example: I was more freaked when it started because never been in this situation. Today, I am not as freaked out because:
1. I have stopped following the news which sounds like a broken record now.
2. I have no control over many of the situation.
3. I have distracted myself with other interests.
I can just take precautions. If I know someone has Covid, I will still not go within 30 feet of him.
Is the situation worse today than it started? I know the number of cases will go up over time, but is the number of active cases up?
Maybe. But even if you tell me they had gone up, there is nothing much I could do. My only avenue is to leave the state but I have not found a good place to go to. Every private school outside the USA still costs an arm and a leg.
The good thing is my stock portfolio has gone up since the pandemic. We have mastered this. My latest stock insight is that, "Even if one had bought stocks at the height of the 1929 prior to the start of the great depression, with the right balancing, that person would have still made a fortune today."
I don’t follow you on waves. I can follow the math if you have it. Waves make me think Fourier, but I’m sure that isn’t what you mean.
If you mean the shape of the curve, I think you have it backwards. The shape of the curve seems to be more variable in later months, not earlier. Some places had a quick run up, then a quick run down. Some places had a quick run up, then a long slow decay. Early shapes matched, but later shapes were quite different. (larger role for behavioral differences between countries.)
If it were all about reaching 20% infection rates, then all countries with mature outbreaks would have similar infection rates. There is quite a bit of variability. The Asian countries have mature outbreaks and are nowhere near 20% infection rates. That ponts to a very large behavioral element.
Both point to masks/distancing instead of covid fatalism.
SoccerGuru
SILVER ELITE
Hilarious that you tried to use complex mathematics into a soccer forum about politics. I applaud your effort but I would say this is a case where you need to know your audience a little better but I do generally like your posts.
You see, at least this sounds like a plan. By the way, have you found the captain yet, or is he in a bunker. Maybe he should have followed your plan. Maybe he should have followed my plan. Maybe he shouldn’t have been a pussy and been the 1st one to abandon ship.
Sorry brother, I won’t allow you to pin this on DemoRats or communists in Cali. None of you have been able to own the fact that this is the biggest and costliest presidential debacle of our lifetime.
like I said the Titanic already hit the iceberg. Now, it’s only a matter of how this catastrophe will measure in the history books.
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If you look at the Asian countries, though, they've all had repeated outbreaks (except for Taiwan, which sealed themselves off, and China/Vietnam, which used the extreme tactics) precisely because they aren't at 15-20%. Japan had a second wave despite masks (if masks work, they wouldn't have...mask might still have a marginal utility but not enough macro utility to stop a Japanese outbreak). South Korea has an ongoing slow burn (despite the most sophisticated T&T and enforced quarantines). Hong Kong is in its third wave. Singapore is in its second again despite its vaunted T&T. The Philippines has one of the most robust mask requirements in the world yet is still ongoing. Sweden though does not (and does some real stupid stuff) and it's receded now....why?
If you look at the Asian countries, though, they've all had repeated outbreaks (except for Taiwan, which sealed themselves off, and China/Vietnam, which used the extreme tactics) precisely because they aren't at 15-20%. Japan had a second wave despite masks (if masks work, they wouldn't have...mask might still have a marginal utility but not enough macro utility to stop a Japanese outbreak). South Korea has an ongoing slow burn (despite the most sophisticated T&T and enforced quarantines). Hong Kong is in its third wave. Singapore is in its second again despite its vaunted T&T. The Philippines has one of the most robust mask requirements in the world yet is still ongoing. Sweden though does not (and does some real stupid stuff) and it's receded now....why?
Keepermom2
GOLD
I can tell you have done a lot of thinking on this subject. I am looking for evidence that supports your assertions. Please provide.
Yeah. I know. Some people clutch onto that blue pill real hard. Most people are not ready to be unplugged.
Which assertion. The 15-20%? I told you go look at the curve of every country. It's what happens. It's a fact. I don't have the time to do it for you, and frankly if you were really interested you'd go out and do it yourselves. To compile it would take a few days and blow up this forum...not worth the effort to pursuade you since your mind is blue pilled anyways....you'll fight anything that tries to unplug you.
The fact that it's mathematical? Don't have any. It's a guess. I think it might also be weather dependent, or a combination of both. We don't know. We do know there's some kind of dark matter. Might be government policy as well, but given the different responses in Socal v. Fl/Tx/Az unlikely.
That’s because she’s a doctor, a lawyer, a research scientist, an executive, an educator, a lab technician, a manufacturer......
In other words jack of all trades master of none.
Where’s that pussy Stephen Miller? Tell him that if he had any balls he would’ve rounded up all the illegal aliens working at every meat packing plant and agricultural field across the nation. They’ve been the only ones working full time since March.
He still has time to do it, please tell him, I really want to see what happens.
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