Hope it was the recall petition. My friends teammates mom already has 48 signatures in 1 day and was going to collect more at the beach today. My neighbor has 134 in 2 days.
No Soccer - Bad / No School - Catastrophic!
- Thread starter MicPaPa
- Start date
Hope it was the recall petition. My friends teammates mom already has 48 signatures in 1 day and was going to collect more at the beach today. My neighbor has 134 in 2 days.
Grace, my buddies neighbor is all in with recall. He signed it as did 75% of his neighbors. Villa Park area. Crazy times.
Lionel Hutz
SILVER
Your calculations are fine in a vacuum if no other NPI are taken -- my point is that these are not occurring in a vacuum and people'e behavior can have greater impact on reducing the spread of disease in populations were there is still potential for exponential growth.My primary point was that CNN did a poor job of informing people with that article and I provided an example to show why. I like your initial conditions, too. Let's see what it means in terms of NYC (20% with antibodies) and AZ (3.1% with antibodies) and use 2.5, the midpoint of your R0.
From inverse.com
Incubation period: 4-6 days for most to develop symptoms
Infectious period: 1-3 days prior to developing symptoms and for 7 days after developing symptoms.
So, most are infectious from 1-5 days after being infected and continues until day 11-13. 8 days is about in the middle, although I'd argue it's more likely people infect others earlier in the infectious period before they show symptoms as they are less likely to isolate themselves without symptoms.
Covid-19: How long does it take to get sick, how long you're infectious, when you can go outside
As the coronavirus pandemic stretches on, a small proportion of Australians infected have now died, while most have either recovered, or are likely to recover over the next few weeks.www.inverse.com
So, we go through a generation of the virus in about 8 days. With R0 = 2.5, the effective R for
NYC: 2.0 = 2.5*0.8
AZ: 2.4225 = 2.5*0.969
- after 8 days
NY: 2 people
AZ: 2.4225 people
21% higher rate of infection in AZ
- after 16 days
NY: 4 = 2*2
AZ: 5.8685 = 2.4225*2.4225
47% higher rate of infection in AZ
- after 24 days
NY: 8 = 2*4
AZ: 14.2 = 2.4225*5.8685
78% higher in AZ
- after 32 days
NY: 16
AZ = 34.4 = 2.4225^2*58.685
115% higher in AZ
While both are in ugly exponential growth territory, there can be little doubt that NYC isn't in nearly as bad as shape as AZ simply due to the number already infected in NYC. Yes, NYC may be doing other things - quite possibly things that AZ is not doing. However, they get the above "advantage" over AZ in terms of new growth without doing anything other than a poor job of containing the virus in March.
Your calculations though do a good job of capturing why 20% immunity in a population is long way from herd immunity with virus that has a R0 = 2-3
Is there an estimate for how much particular NPI can change R?
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
Again, the point I was making was that CNN posted their story without considering antibodies in the population and that's misleading. In a vacuum or not, the % who have antibodies matters - a lot - with or without NPI. Both examples show that. I also explicitly stated in the first post that there are other factors. I never argued otherwise. This stuff can be confusing and misleading reporting doesn't help.
Also, I figured you didn't really need all those calculations, but I wanted to see them myself. There was an added benefit. My daughter got a "virus growth" lesson today. She knows I'm crazy. She accepts it.
This is an interesting topic as even R0 is not particularly "constant". As we move into fall, it will be affected by changes in the weather, the seasonality associated with the amount of time spent indoors and the air "quality" indoors. The conditions for stability will change. The real "wildcard" is how long antibodies stay active in the body. I'm hoping it's at least 18 months.
Short of a hard shutdown in AZ, TX and FL, I'd guess they are going to need to bring the % of residents with antibodies up to near where NY state is, about 14%, before things start to stabilize.
How about we don't leave it to CNN, FOX, OAN, MSNBC, etc. Here's my f'n plan!
I use the DPA (Defense Production Act) and force the production of 100 million Abbot machines. I use all the unemployed to work round the f'n clock and get these done in about 2-3 weeks. I ship them out to every f'n household in America within 1 week. Once everybody has one in their house, I tell American's that we are going to suck it up for 1 week. Nobody leaves their f'n house, and they test every single day for 1 week.
After that 1 week, anybody who tests positive, we will send a f'n contact tracing team to your house and handle everything while you remain quarantined. We'll feed you and treat you like a f'n king to make sure you don't go out. Omaha Filet Mignons, Dom Perignon, you name it.
On the 8th day, EVERYBODY goes back to normal; schools, bars, restaurants, etc. Keep testing regularly to catch any flare ups and keep all precautions as much as possible.
Cost: 100-200 billion Cost of No Plan: priceless
Wow! Nice to know Justafan among other things wants to:
-Violently suppress BLM, anti-lockdown and any other protestors that insist on leaving their house
-Deploy the military to shut down the southern and northern borders (in this case most likely Americans looking to escape north or south and then sneak back over when this is done)
-Round up anyone that engages in private gatherings or otherwise leaves their house during this time period
-Since it's only a 1 week isolation, presumably forcibly remove any loved one, including children, that might be in an infected persons home and ship them to separate quarantine
-If anyone has a plumbing break, aircon break, or runs out of food because say their refrigerator stopped working say they're SOL
-Stop free lunch programs for the poor (because there's no one to delivery them)
-Presumably force the doctors, nurses and ambulence units working in the emergency rooms out of their homes and into the hospitals
-And presumably then isolate all the military, police and contact tracers required to keep everyone in line who might have been exposed during the 1 week
-Force the unemployed to work around the clock and relocate to wherever they need to go to do this (or pay them lawyer level wages to motivate them to take such temporary employment)
-Round up the homeless and put them in concentration camps so they can be tested in this time period
and
-suspend the Constitution and the courts to allow us to build this utopia
My God man we can't even get Americans to return their census figures and you want to track, give everyone a machine, and put them in forced lock down for a week. Why not just employ the Chinese methods....they're less fightening and totalitarian. Really scary stuff if the fear porn has gotten this bad that anyone is actually thinking this way. That blue pill is made of powerful stuff....
Whatever one thinks about tomorrow is imagining things in their head.
I think everyone is so miserable that they will do so voluntarily. We’ve locked down for 4 months, what’s 1 week. I know you were being facetious, BUT would you lock down voluntarily for 7 days if you knew that on the 8th day you can get your life back?
I’m with Desert Hound, let’s think of what’s possible, not what’s impossible. We act as if there is no solution or answers to this pandemic. We act helpless and defenseless. There are lots of answers, we’ve just haven’t been thinking big enough. That is UN-AMERICAN. You’re telling me we can’t get build and get one of those toaster sized machines to every household?
Anyways, I’m just throwing that out there as an example of a “plan.” By all means if there are better plans out there, and I’m sure there are, then I’m all for it.
The fact that we didn’t have a “plan” after we locked down for 3 months is criminal. So that’s why I say another lockdown is useless because there’s no carrot/plan at the end of the lockdown.
We’d simply reopen again, have a spike in infections, and lockdown again. And unfortunately that’s where we’re headed. With no plan, we are going to need bailout after bailout. When all is said and done, without a “plan,” this thing is going to cost us 15 trillion. With the new stimulus coming at the end of this month, were up to 10 trillion.
In order to protect the Constitution, I'd be one of the first to oppose your plan and stare down your tank as it rolled down the street. I'd lay down my life to preserve the nation and render my children orphans.
And if you don't use force, let me remind you of our betters who were lecturing us to voluntarily quarantine and then went off and did what they wanted to do for their own selfish purposes: Chris Cuomo (broke quarantine despite being confirmed positive to check out his vacation home), Mayor Lightfoot (got a haircut), Mayor De Blasio (went to a park outside his neighborhood and exempted BLM protests from rules because they are important and got slapped by the courts for doing so), President Obama (went golfing), D Cummings (despite being a member of Johnson's government fled north with his family to have childcare in case the worst happens), Trudeau (went to cabin in the woods with his family), Gov Whitmer (her husband tried to use his influence to get a boat out of drydock when the weekend before his wife was urging people not to go to the area), Fergueson (despite being the architect of the British lockdown, broke it to get a booty call), Dr. Faucci (was caught taking off his mask indoors when the cameras were no longer rolling). You can't get these people to cooperate despite the fact they know better.
The problem is all government plans short of yours or Chinese/Vietnamese tyranny have been failures. Excluding some island that have gotten lucky and the tyrannts no one has figured this out. What's left is you can take the blue pill and continue to delude yourself that we have any sort of real control over this, or you can take the red pill and join us in the ugly reality.
Relax, I said voluntarily, and it was an example of a plan. I welcome any other plans. What’s your plan? Or are we just defenseless?
Anyways, how about Harvard's plan, that's the one I've been preaching for since April. https://www.vox.com/2020/4/13/21215133/coronavirus-testing-covid-19-tests-screening
Check out the last sentence, "go big or stay home."
As advocatus diaboli I'd say your two principle problems are you'd have to forcibly tests since there's a portion of the population that wouldn't want to do it, and the major problem is the time factor. The US is increasing its testing capacity far faster than almost any country in the world but we're now at certain breakers that stop us from getting it even with the money available including training backroom staff, ingredient and supplies, and processing capacity. All that can be built up but it would take time....by the time Operation Warp Speed is completed (which, like Neo, is the 1 thing that would actually make a difference in the struggle) the testing would be moot.
All you’re giving me is reasons why it CAN’T be done. Fine, let’s find a plan that CAN be done.
“The US is increasing testing capacity far faster than any other country in the world.” So what, It’s all defensive testing, i.e. you need a referral for the most part. We need offensive testing, like Harvard suggests.
“we’re at certain breakers.” I have no idea what this means.
“training backroom staff, ingredient and supplies, and processing capacity.” You use the Defense Production Act. This one is easy.
“operation warp speed.” If that’s our best plan, God help us.
Its not false. And I am not going to debate you. But, lets just say I know and SPK know. If you need to ask or respond. Its a waste of your effort, time, and anything else. Now, if you have a background in education from a NPS, Charter and in public education, please let me know. I and SPK both have 25 years of experience for each of us.False, but that's what the teachers unions would have you believe. Charters have to accept all that apply. If more apply than capacity they have to hold a random public drawing. Now EOTL and his tinfoil hat would have you believe that the enrollment is "reverse engineered" to cherry pick the ethnically and socially preferable children.
Charter Schools in California - CalEdFacts (CA Dept of Education)
This content is part of California Department of Education's information and media guide about education in the State of California.www.cde.ca.gov
Last edited:
You're holding onto that blue pill real hard.
Even if you were to draft people, you'd have to train them to do the job...and you need new people (you can't just reshuffle the people who are doing diabeties and UTI testing right now without killing those people). For the ingredients and supplies it means building new factories and mining supplies and labs. You are talking even throwing WWII level resources at it at least a year to get to those numbers, because we've outsourced a lot of our resource supplies and manufacturing overseas so it means starting from scratch. Remember even with WWII level commitments and with a long lead time that we had in WWII where Roosevelt knew we'd eventually have to throw down, it took us 2 years before we were really into the fight. Our biggest enemy even with Operation Warp Speed is time.
I know....I have to understand....most people are not ready to be unplugged from the matrix. I can only show you the door. You're the one that has to walk through it.
MicPaPa
GOLD
As I said, BIDEN will not be flying the plane, driving the bus, or operating on anybody! Everybody around him knows this. He’s a figurehead.
The difference with Trump is, HE actually thinks he can fly the plane, drive the bus, and operate on somebody. YOU follow him off a cliff, not me.
Did you give me any positives on Obama or are you not man enough? O thought we were going to be intellectually honest.
FYI, I’m not reading the “accomplishments” you listed. Some “accomplishments” may be subjective and not every piece of legislation or regulation is necessarily positive. Some may be. Obama signed a lot of stuff also, so are they all winners? Should I list every piece of legislation or regulations he signed?
[/QUOTE]
He was a good father, had a solid nuclear family.
MicPaPa
GOLD
As I said, BIDEN will not be flying the plane, driving the bus, or operating on anybody! Everybody around him knows this. He’s a figurehead.
The difference with Trump is, HE actually thinks he can fly the plane, drive the bus, and operate on somebody. YOU follow him off a cliff, not me.
Did you give me any positives on Obama or are you not man enough? O thought we were going to be intellectually honest.
FYI, I’m not reading the “accomplishments” you listed. Some “accomplishments” may be subjective and not every piece of legislation or regulation is necessarily positive. Some may be. Obama signed a lot of stuff also, so are they all winners? Should I list every piece of legislation or regulations he signed?
[/QUOTE]
Sorry, forgot one...took out OBL.
MicPaPa
GOLD
As I said, BIDEN will not be flying the plane, driving the bus, or operating on anybody! Everybody around him knows this. He’s a figurehead.
The difference with Trump is, HE actually thinks he can fly the plane, drive the bus, and operate on somebody. YOU follow him off a cliff, not me.
Did you give me any positives on Obama or are you not man enough? O thought we were going to be intellectually honest.
FYI, I’m not reading the “accomplishments” you listed. Some “accomplishments” may be subjective and not every piece of legislation or regulation is necessarily positive. Some may be. Obama signed a lot of stuff also, so are they all winners? Should I list every piece of legislation or regulations he signed?
[/QUOTE]
I didn't say that..Again, the question was would you trust the pilot, Surgeon, Financial Manager or School Bus Driver...this is the key part... if they displayed Biden's current condition?
Sheriff Joe
DA
These liberals are an emotional bunch.
Sheriff Joe
DA
Welcome to the club.
Welcome back. Your funny Lastman.