I have wanted to comment about the free lunch program for a while. There certainly are children who absolutely need free lunches. To apply for the free lunch, a form is filled out and signed. If your income is below a certain level, number of people, you qualify. Right. But no proof needs to be shown. I have seen many children who "qualify" for free lunch playing with their ipads before school or on their iphones. I have seen them show up for our school book sales with $40,$50. I have seen them wearing very expensive sneakers, most I could not afford. If a child needs a free lunch, absolutely give it to him/her. There is so much abuse of the system it is ridiculous. I have been told by a friend, who was having a street party a couple years ago, who does this with his family, that they pay cash for almost everything to hide income. Lunches can and have been delivered during the shelter in place. So not problem there.
No Soccer - Bad / No School - Catastrophic!
- Thread starter MicPaPa
- Start date
False, but that's what the teachers unions would have you believe. Charters have to accept all that apply. If more apply than capacity they have to hold a random public drawing. Now EOTL and his tinfoil hat would have you believe that the enrollment is "reverse engineered" to cherry pick the ethnically and socially preferable children.
Charter Schools - CalEdFacts (CA Dept of Education)
This content is part of California Department of Education's information and media guide about education in the State of California.
Sheriff Joe
DA
You do know how to tell when a lib is lying?False, but that's what the teachers unions would have you believe. Charters have to accept all that apply. If more apply than capacity they have to hold a random public drawing. Now EOTL and his tinfoil hat would have you believe that the enrollment is "reverse engineered" to cherry pick the ethnically and socially preferable children.
Charter Schools - CalEdFacts (CA Dept of Education)
This content is part of California Department of Education's information and media guide about education in the State of California.www.cde.ca.gov
Sadly yes, unless we can cut the number of covid cases. Watched a soccer coach/trainer at our local park with a group of six girls, he was doing a good job with distancing, but then, wait for it, they took a water break and the girls rushed to a shady tree and sat very close to each other laughing and drinking their water. ( I was on a bench watching enjoying watching them from a distance, had been walking my dog) Really too bad. It is that type of thing that either he didn't think what he was letting them do was a problem or he didn't care because he was far away. This morning I was at Target in RSM, some petitioners there, I don't care what they were trying to get people to sign, but they did not have on masks. As I walked by I asked them where their masks were, women replied, he is my husband, but then three people walked up to sign petition, no one had on a mask. They were all within three, four feet of each other. This might be a losing battle with idiots like that, they just don't think it will affect them I guess.
So far.
What do you m
Have relatives in Boulder and the numbers are increasing. Maybe they want to get a firm handle on it before it takes off like in Arizona and California.
No, but by that definition Adams was our first President, not Washington. Which is sort of true. Washington never had to win a contested election.
I never said Mexico failed to win independence. I just said I don’t call someone President unless they won an election. If you really want to nit pick, bring up President Ford. But you know what I mean. There is a difference between President and dictator.
A “Nation Divided” says it all. Trump’s epitaph. Sad.
You know how Outlaw can tell that the Black football player couldn’t have possibly scored a 1200 on his SAT’s, I can tell by simply looking at the people at a Trump rally! How bout them apples?
It's here and always has been here. It's alive!!! Were all going to get the virus. Write it down and dont forget that.
www.foxnews.com
Iran estimates up to 25 million coronavirus cases since outbreak; nearly doubling the total worldwide caseload: report
Iran's President Hassan Rouhani estimated that up to 25 million people in the country have been infected with coronavirus but despite this tally and urging from Rouhani himself to take precautions to protect against the virus' spread, the country will not reimpose lockdown restrictions.
www.foxnews.com
MacDre
PREMIER
Fair.
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
My primary point was that CNN did a poor job of informing people with that article and I provided an example to show why. I like your initial conditions, too. Let's see what it means in terms of NYC (20% with antibodies) and AZ (3.1% with antibodies) and use 2.5, the midpoint of your R0.
From inverse.com
Incubation period: 4-6 days for most to develop symptoms
Infectious period: 1-3 days prior to developing symptoms and for 7 days after developing symptoms.
So, most are infectious from 1-5 days after being infected and continues until day 11-13. 8 days is about in the middle, although I'd argue it's more likely people infect others earlier in the infectious period before they show symptoms as they are less likely to isolate themselves without symptoms.
Covid-19: How long does it take to get sick, how long you're infectious, when you can go outside
As the coronavirus pandemic stretches on, a small proportion of Australians infected have now died, while most have either recovered, or are likely to recover over the next few weeks.
So, we go through a generation of the virus in about 8 days. With R0 = 2.5, the effective R for
NYC: 2.0 = 2.5*0.8
AZ: 2.4225 = 2.5*0.969
- after 8 days
NY: 2 people
AZ: 2.4225 people
21% higher rate of infection in AZ
- after 16 days
NY: 4 = 2*2
AZ: 5.8685 = 2.4225*2.4225
47% higher rate of infection in AZ
- after 24 days
NY: 8 = 2*4
AZ: 14.2 = 2.4225*5.8685
78% higher in AZ
- after 32 days
NY: 16
AZ = 34.4 = 2.4225^2*58.685
115% higher in AZ
While both are in ugly exponential growth territory, there can be little doubt that NYC isn't in nearly as bad as shape as AZ simply due to the number already infected in NYC. Yes, NYC may be doing other things - quite possibly things that AZ is not doing. However, they get the above "advantage" over AZ in terms of new growth without doing anything other than a poor job of containing the virus in March.
Hope it was the recall petition. My friends teammates mom already has 48 signatures in 1 day and was going to collect more at the beach today. My neighbor has 134 in 2 days.
Grace, my buddies neighbor is all in with recall. He signed it as did 75% of his neighbors. Villa Park area. Crazy times.
Lionel Hutz
SILVER
Your calculations are fine in a vacuum if no other NPI are taken -- my point is that these are not occurring in a vacuum and people'e behavior can have greater impact on reducing the spread of disease in populations were there is still potential for exponential growth.My primary point was that CNN did a poor job of informing people with that article and I provided an example to show why. I like your initial conditions, too. Let's see what it means in terms of NYC (20% with antibodies) and AZ (3.1% with antibodies) and use 2.5, the midpoint of your R0.
From inverse.com
Incubation period: 4-6 days for most to develop symptoms
Infectious period: 1-3 days prior to developing symptoms and for 7 days after developing symptoms.
So, most are infectious from 1-5 days after being infected and continues until day 11-13. 8 days is about in the middle, although I'd argue it's more likely people infect others earlier in the infectious period before they show symptoms as they are less likely to isolate themselves without symptoms.
Covid-19: How long does it take to get sick, how long you're infectious, when you can go outside
As the coronavirus pandemic stretches on, a small proportion of Australians infected have now died, while most have either recovered, or are likely to recover over the next few weeks.www.inverse.com
So, we go through a generation of the virus in about 8 days. With R0 = 2.5, the effective R for
NYC: 2.0 = 2.5*0.8
AZ: 2.4225 = 2.5*0.969
- after 8 days
NY: 2 people
AZ: 2.4225 people
21% higher rate of infection in AZ
- after 16 days
NY: 4 = 2*2
AZ: 5.8685 = 2.4225*2.4225
47% higher rate of infection in AZ
- after 24 days
NY: 8 = 2*4
AZ: 14.2 = 2.4225*5.8685
78% higher in AZ
- after 32 days
NY: 16
AZ = 34.4 = 2.4225^2*58.685
115% higher in AZ
While both are in ugly exponential growth territory, there can be little doubt that NYC isn't in nearly as bad as shape as AZ simply due to the number already infected in NYC. Yes, NYC may be doing other things - quite possibly things that AZ is not doing. However, they get the above "advantage" over AZ in terms of new growth without doing anything other than a poor job of containing the virus in March.
Your calculations though do a good job of capturing why 20% immunity in a population is long way from herd immunity with virus that has a R0 = 2-3
Is there an estimate for how much particular NPI can change R?
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
Again, the point I was making was that CNN posted their story without considering antibodies in the population and that's misleading. In a vacuum or not, the % who have antibodies matters - a lot - with or without NPI. Both examples show that. I also explicitly stated in the first post that there are other factors. I never argued otherwise. This stuff can be confusing and misleading reporting doesn't help.
Also, I figured you didn't really need all those calculations, but I wanted to see them myself. There was an added benefit. My daughter got a "virus growth" lesson today. She knows I'm crazy. She accepts it.
This is an interesting topic as even R0 is not particularly "constant". As we move into fall, it will be affected by changes in the weather, the seasonality associated with the amount of time spent indoors and the air "quality" indoors. The conditions for stability will change. The real "wildcard" is how long antibodies stay active in the body. I'm hoping it's at least 18 months.
Short of a hard shutdown in AZ, TX and FL, I'd guess they are going to need to bring the % of residents with antibodies up to near where NY state is, about 14%, before things start to stabilize.
How about we don't leave it to CNN, FOX, OAN, MSNBC, etc. Here's my f'n plan!
I use the DPA (Defense Production Act) and force the production of 100 million Abbot machines. I use all the unemployed to work round the f'n clock and get these done in about 2-3 weeks. I ship them out to every f'n household in America within 1 week. Once everybody has one in their house, I tell American's that we are going to suck it up for 1 week. Nobody leaves their f'n house, and they test every single day for 1 week.
After that 1 week, anybody who tests positive, we will send a f'n contact tracing team to your house and handle everything while you remain quarantined. We'll feed you and treat you like a f'n king to make sure you don't go out. Omaha Filet Mignons, Dom Perignon, you name it.
On the 8th day, EVERYBODY goes back to normal; schools, bars, restaurants, etc. Keep testing regularly to catch any flare ups and keep all precautions as much as possible.
Cost: 100-200 billion Cost of No Plan: priceless
Wow! Nice to know Justafan among other things wants to:
-Violently suppress BLM, anti-lockdown and any other protestors that insist on leaving their house
-Deploy the military to shut down the southern and northern borders (in this case most likely Americans looking to escape north or south and then sneak back over when this is done)
-Round up anyone that engages in private gatherings or otherwise leaves their house during this time period
-Since it's only a 1 week isolation, presumably forcibly remove any loved one, including children, that might be in an infected persons home and ship them to separate quarantine
-If anyone has a plumbing break, aircon break, or runs out of food because say their refrigerator stopped working say they're SOL
-Stop free lunch programs for the poor (because there's no one to delivery them)
-Presumably force the doctors, nurses and ambulence units working in the emergency rooms out of their homes and into the hospitals
-And presumably then isolate all the military, police and contact tracers required to keep everyone in line who might have been exposed during the 1 week
-Force the unemployed to work around the clock and relocate to wherever they need to go to do this (or pay them lawyer level wages to motivate them to take such temporary employment)
-Round up the homeless and put them in concentration camps so they can be tested in this time period
and
-suspend the Constitution and the courts to allow us to build this utopia
My God man we can't even get Americans to return their census figures and you want to track, give everyone a machine, and put them in forced lock down for a week. Why not just employ the Chinese methods....they're less fightening and totalitarian. Really scary stuff if the fear porn has gotten this bad that anyone is actually thinking this way. That blue pill is made of powerful stuff....
Whatever one thinks about tomorrow is imagining things in their head.