New Research on Covid Transmission

Justafan said:
Here's the difference dumbass. When patrons come into a grocery store they are masked up, they move around and don't stay in one place for more than 2-3 minutes, and certainly not directly in front of a grocery store worker. So even if they are covid positive, the likelihood they will transmit to someone else is low. In a classroom, you'll have 30 students confined in a classroom for 50 minutes, probably all facing in one direction. And this will happen 6 times a day, 5 days a week.

Here, re-read this article to freshen up. https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them

And remember, the most important thing teachers want is testing! https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/l...o-reopening-schools/ar-BB178hPd?ocid=msedgdhp

Your sense of smell is faulty, maybe you have covid!
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Um.. kids can be masked up... some schools here are requiring faceshields... dumbass. That is what I am saying. It can be done and probably a lot cheaper than the online only they are paying for. I get it.. exposure x time. So airlines.. trains, virtually any office.. filled with these types oh and .. what? infection rates are going down.. it cant be.. compensating measures can be effective.

Put a shield in front of the teachers desk just like in the stores.. what does that cost? You can even have the teacher check temps on the way in and boot those with a fever. It can totally be done. So many businesses have successfully adapted schools can too. And you are saying the 500 or so random adults the cashier sees are LESS risk than the maybe 20 kids that are NOT random...

Oh and your post.. Erin Bromage is a veterinarian.. but nice blog. If my neighbors cat gets covid Ill subscribe.
 
tjinaz said:
Um.. kids can be masked up... some schools here are requiring faceshields... dumbass. That is what I am saying. It can be done and probably a lot cheaper than the online only they are paying for

Put a shield in front of the teachers desk just like in the stores.. what does that cost? You can even have the teacher check temps on the way in and boot those with a fever. It can totally be done. So many businesses have successfully adapted schools can too. And you are saying the 500 or so random adults the cashier sees are LESS risk than the maybe 20 kids that are NOT random...

Oh and your post.. Erin Bromage is a veterinarian.. but nice blog. If my neighbors cat gets covid Ill subscribe.
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Here’s a bit of her bio... did she leave out the vet part?

Iam a Comparative Immunologist and Professor of Biology (specializing in Immunology) at the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth. I balance Teaching, Research and Public Service (that is, when we are allowed in our labs).
 
messy said:
Here’s a bit of her bio... did she leave out the vet part?

Iam a Comparative Immunologist and Professor of Biology (specializing in Immunology) at the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth. I balance Teaching, Research and Public Service (that is, when we are allowed in our labs).
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and here is the part you left out.

. Bromage graduated from the School of Veterinary and Biomedical Sciences James Cook University, Australia where his research focused on the epidemiology of, and immunity to, infectious disease in animals. His Post-Doctoral training was at the College of William and Mary, Virginia Institute of Marine Science in the Comparative Immunology Laboratory of late Dr. Stephen Kaattari.

Last I heard people were not on the curriculum at either the school of veterinary nor institute of marine science.


Here is the link from the NOT veterinarians at the CDC saying open the schools.

www.cdc.gov

Communities, Schools, Workplaces, & Events

Cleaning and Disinfecting: Everyday steps, when someone is sick, and considerations for employers.
www.cdc.gov www.cdc.gov
 
Found this article interesting related to risk of death with underlining conditions not transmission but still:

"COVID-19, Los Angeles County's chief medical officer said Thursday high blood pressure and diabetes were the most common underlying ailments in coronavirus patients who have died.


Roughly 92 percent of people who have died in the county from COVID-19 had some type of underlying health condition. In addition to hypertension and diabetes, other common conditions included cardiovascular disease, pulmonary disease, chronic renal disease, obesity, asthma and liver disease. Gunzenhauser noted that some people who died from the virus had more than one underlying condition."

patch.com

Top Pre-Existing Conditions For LA Coronavirus Deaths Identified

Top Pre-Existing Conditions For LA Coronavirus... - Redondo Beach, CA - The most common underlying ailments in coronavirus deaths in Los Angeles County are high blood pressure and diabetes, officials said.
patch.com patch.com

Real research or just statistics?
 
tjinaz said:
Um.. kids can be masked up... some schools here are requiring faceshields... dumbass. That is what I am saying. It can be done and probably a lot cheaper than the online only they are paying for. I get it.. exposure x time. So airlines.. trains, virtually any office.. filled with these types oh and .. what? infection rates are going down.. it cant be.. compensating measures can be effective.

Put a shield in front of the teachers desk just like in the stores.. what does that cost? You can even have the teacher check temps on the way in and boot those with a fever. It can totally be done. So many businesses have successfully adapted schools can too. And you are saying the 500 or so random adults the cashier sees are LESS risk than the maybe 20 kids that are NOT random...

Oh and your post.. Erin Bromage is a veterinarian.. but nice blog. If my neighbors cat gets covid Ill subscribe.
Click to expand...

You said it yourself dumbass, exposure x time x (ventilation) is the important factor. So yes, dumbass 500 people who only spend 1 minute in front of a grocery clerk who is protected by a shield IS LESS RISK than 20-30 kids inside a classroom for 50 minutes DUMBASS!!

And your right, we can protect our teachers with everything you said AND everyday testing. I’ve been saying that for 2 months. So what DUMBFUCK hasn’t been smart enough to get all these protections to teachers so all our kids can physically go back to school. You and I agree, it’s so fucken easy, it’s criminal that it hasn’t been done.

And guess what, Erin Bromage is the one who analyzed the studies and concludes that it’s exposure x time x ventilation/circulation. AND that is partly the point, WHY THE FUCK do we have to rely on people doing side gigs after work or doing experiments in their garage to relay vital information to us.

Everybody here has become a wannabe scientist or statistician trying to figure this shit out and that’s the problem, we have nobody who’s taken control and laid down the hammer on all of this shit. Where does the buck stop? We are what our record says we are!
 
lafalafa said:
Found this article interesting related to risk of death with underlining conditions not transmission but still:

"COVID-19, Los Angeles County's chief medical officer said Thursday high blood pressure and diabetes were the most common underlying ailments in coronavirus patients who have died.


Roughly 92 percent of people who have died in the county from COVID-19 had some type of underlying health condition. In addition to hypertension and diabetes, other common conditions included cardiovascular disease, pulmonary disease, chronic renal disease, obesity, asthma and liver disease. Gunzenhauser noted that some people who died from the virus had more than one underlying condition."

patch.com

Top Pre-Existing Conditions For LA Coronavirus Deaths Identified

Top Pre-Existing Conditions For LA Coronavirus... - Redondo Beach, CA - The most common underlying ailments in coronavirus deaths in Los Angeles County are high blood pressure and diabetes, officials said.
patch.com patch.com

Real research or just statistics?
Click to expand...
Sort of real.

92% had some underlying condition.

The catch is, those underlying conditions are extremely common among older people.

Among those over 70, you might find that 80 or 85% of all people have at least one underlying condition.

It makes the 92% number far less informative.
 
dad4 said:
Sort of real.

92% had some underlying condition.

The catch is, those underlying conditions are extremely common among older people.

Among those over 70, you might find that 80 or 85% of all people have at least one underlying condition.

It makes the 92% number far less informative.
Click to expand...
Lack of context is my most common complaint about reporting. The question that needs to be answered when making any point with data is, "What is the baseline?"
 
Justafan said:
Testing my man, testing. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/l...o-reopening-schools/ar-BB178hPd?ocid=msedgdhp
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Yep, testing, I get it and don't disagree. Again, bureaucrats will mumble and stumble their way to inaction, paralyzed by analysis and listening to ridiculous requests from unions that demonstrate their complete lack of interest in becoming part of the solution. Have fun in California getting anything done until post election and beyond. It's a sad state of affairs in CA and the trend is accelerating exponentially. Literally and figuratively burning down.
 
Desert Hound said:
Real. We know that from CDC stats and the stats produced by other countries.

We know who is at risk. Let's stop pretending the average person is at risk.

Time for school.

Play ball !!
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Plus all the motor cycle DOA's and all the stroke victims that tested positive at hospitals when they arrive dead or brain dead. DH, can you check on the #1 cause of death last year from Jan til August 31 2019 for those over 75? Thanks-
 
dad4 said:
Sort of real.

92% had some underlying condition.

The catch is, those underlying conditions are extremely common among older people.

Among those over 70, you might find that 80 or 85% of all people have at least one underlying condition.

It makes the 92% number far less informative.
Click to expand...

Hypertension yes but the other conditions? None of this runs in my family and our 93yr old Grammy doesn't have any of those others, neither did my dad or mom.

Kids besides asthma they don't have normally have those underlying conditions do they?

I have no medical background although transmission and death are different risks classifing youth soccer as medium risk instead of low seems misguided to me and it's hard to find the stats or justification why that is?
 
happy9 said:
Yep, testing, I get it and don't disagree. Again, bureaucrats will mumble and stumble their way to inaction, paralyzed by analysis and listening to ridiculous requests from unions that demonstrate their complete lack of interest in becoming part of the solution. Have fun in California getting anything done until post election and beyond. It's a sad state of affairs in CA and the trend is accelerating exponentially. Literally and figuratively burning down.
Click to expand...

“bureaucrats will mumble and stumble.”

Take this “excuse” out of the hands of the local “bureaucrats.” If the feds had provided all the point of care rapid tests and all ppe, then the bureaucrats have no excuse.

“ridiculous requests from unions that demonstrate their complete lack of interest. . .”

Intellectually dishonest my friend, you’re arguing “M&M’s in the dressing room.” Two sentences in a 10 page demand letter, when the rest was ALL about safety. And you’ve heard it straight from the Superintendent, all they want is testing.

One thing I will say where California got it wrong is if you see the Feds aren’t coming to the rescue then you should take it upon yourself to try and fix it. I would have gotten on the phone and hit up all the Cali billionaires and asked them to pony up some $$$ so we can buy all the testing and ppe we need for all our schools.

“CA is exponentially burning down”.

Doomsday alarmist?
 
lafalafa said:
Hypertension yes but the other conditions? None of this runs in my family and our 93yr old Grammy doesn't have any of those others, neither did my dad or mom.

Kids besides asthma they don't have normally have those underlying conditions do they?

I have no medical background although transmission and death are different risks classifing youth soccer as medium risk instead of low seems misguided to me and it's hard to find the stats or justification why that is?
Click to expand...
Cant tell you why youth soccer got medium high risk. May depend on how much bumblebee ball you are imagining.

They are counting how many people have at least one of: diabetes, hypertension, heart conditions, cancer, obesity, asthma, and so on.

So, even if all you have is hypertension, you are counted on the underlying condition side of things. That's the 92%. And most of the elderly in this country.

The 8% are the ones with absolutely nothing wrong. No heart trouble, no high blood pressure, no weight problem, no asthma, nothing. If that's your family, hooray for your good genes and healthy living.
 
dad4 said:
Sort of real.

92% had some underlying condition.

The catch is, those underlying conditions are extremely common among older people.

Among those over 70, you might find that 80 or 85% of all people have at least one underlying condition.

It makes the 92% number far less informative.
Click to expand...
Not just some underlying condition, according to the CDC an average of 2.6 underlying conditions or contributing causes of death.

COVID-19 Provisional Counts - Weekly Updates by Select Demographic and Geographic Characteristics

Tabulated data on provisional COVID-19 deaths by age, sex, race and Hispanic origin, and comorbidities. Also includes an index of state-level and county-level mortality data available for download.
www.cdc.gov www.cdc.gov

"Comorbidities
Table 3 shows the types of health conditions and contributing causes mentioned in conjunction with deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death."

LA County results and CDC results seem very consistent. 6-8% of total deaths are reported as Covid only deaths.
 
Sheriff Joe said:
Teachers are run by unions and you know who unions hate.
Get a grip.
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SJ I know you’re a little salty after losing the primary and heading into irrelevancy, but take it out of the union’s hands. It’s very easy to call their bluff in the event they are bluffing. That is completely in YOUR control. It’s always been in your control.

BTW, we had a good night last night SJ!
 
Justafan said:
“bureaucrats will mumble and stumble.”

Take this “excuse” out of the hands of the local “bureaucrats.” If the feds had provided all the point of care rapid tests and all ppe, then the bureaucrats have no excuse.

“ridiculous requests from unions that demonstrate their complete lack of interest. . .”

Intellectually dishonest my friend, you’re arguing “M&M’s in the dressing room.” Two sentences in a 10 page demand letter, when the rest was ALL about safety. And you’ve heard it straight from the Superintendent, all they want is testing.

One thing I will say where California got it wrong is if you see the Feds aren’t coming to the rescue then you should take it upon yourself to try and fix it. I would have gotten on the phone and hit up all the Cali billionaires and asked them to pony up some $$$ so we can buy all the testing and ppe we need for all our schools.

“CA is exponentially burning down”.

Doomsday alarmist?
Click to expand...

Finger point all you want, it's AUG,. bureacrats exists federally as well. That's the problem will bureacrats, the finger is always pointed away from them. I could care less what side of the aisle you sit on, someone take responsibility. It's obvious you'e planted yourself firmly on one side of the aisle. It's AUG, not March, April, May, June, July - but august. Time to pony up some accountability and stop waiting to be saved - you will be waiting for quite some time. Check out your private and charter schools, they are not waiting for anyone, they have a things to do, kids to teach, teachers to pay. They are moving it along.

And I said CA is "literally and figuratively burning down", not "exponentially burning down" I'm not being an alarmist, just look around you, figure out what kind of trajectory the state is headed. - decide for yourself. Hopefully in 6-7 months CA will still be a great place to visit - I do really like it.

I wish you the best.
 
Justafan said:
SJ I know you’re a little salty after losing the primary and heading into irrelevancy, but take it out of the union’s hands. It’s very easy to call their bluff in the event they are bluffing. That is completely in YOUR control. It’s always been in your control.

BTW, we had a good night last night SJ!
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Noting like having the Light on your side bro. Congratulations, you found some light. Just remember bro, some can illuminate the light and trick people. That's what I'm watching out for. Let's see what the other side says they have on their side. Oh joy, I cant wait until November 4th. I told you back in Feb what was going to happen. Choose love, not hate. Love is on both sides and so is hate. Be very very very careful what you choose.

 
happy9 said:
Finger point all you want, it's AUG,. bureacrats exists federally as well. That's the problem will bureacrats, the finger is always pointed away from them. I could care less what side of the aisle you sit on, someone take responsibility. It's obvious you'e planted yourself firmly on one side of the aisle. It's AUG, not March, April, May, June, July - but august. Time to pony up some accountability and stop waiting to be saved - you will be waiting for quite some time. Check out your private and charter schools, they are not waiting for anyone, they have a things to do, kids to teach, teachers to pay. They are moving it along.

And I said CA is "literally and figuratively burning down", not "exponentially burning down" I'm not being an alarmist, just look around you, figure out what kind of trajectory the state is headed. - decide for yourself. Hopefully in 6-7 months CA will still be a great place to visit - I do really like it.

I wish you the best.
Click to expand...

"someone take responsibility" exactly! It's F'n August, you're right! Unbeleivable isn't it? Who calls the shot at your house? I know my wife and I call the shots in mine, and we are responsible for ALL of the tough decisions we make. You are finger pointing at everybody but the parent in charge. You don't have the balls to call out the person who is supposed to be leading this crap. That you can't do that is so F'n weak and disappointing its pathetic.

"the trend is accelerating exponentially. Literally and figuratively burning down." Yeah, I call this doomsday alarmist Bull Shit. Who's the scaredy cat??
 
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